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BACKGROUND: To monitor the progress of lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programmes, field surveys to assess filarial antigen (Ag) prevalence require access to reliable, user-friendly rapid diagnostic tests. We aimed to evaluate the performance of the new Q Filariasis Antigen Test (QFAT) with the currently recommended Filariasis Test Strip (FTS) for detecting the Ag of Wuchereria bancrofti, the causative agent of LF, under field laboratory conditions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: During an LF survey in Samoa, 344 finger-prick blood samples were tested using FTS and QFAT. Microfilariae (Mf) status was determined from blood slides prepared from any sample that reported Ag-positive by either Ag-test. Each test was re-read at 1 hour and the next day to determine the stability of results over time. Overall Ag-positivity by FTS was 29.0% and 30.2% by QFAT. Concordance between the two tests was 93.6% (kappa = 0.85). Of the 101 Mf slides available, 39.6% were Mf-positive, and all were Ag-positive by both tests. Darker test line intensities from Ag-positive FTS were found to predict Mf-positivity (compared to same/lighter line intensities). QFAT had significantly higher reported test result changes than FTS, mostly reported the next day, but fewer changes were reported between 10 minutes to 1hour. The field laboratory team preferred QFAT over FTS due to the smaller blood volume required, better usability, and easier readability. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: QFAT could be a suitable and user-friendly diagnostic alternative for use in the monitoring and surveillance of LF in field surveys based on its similar performance to FTS under field laboratory conditions.
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Antígenos de Helmintos , Filariose Linfática , Wuchereria bancrofti , Humanos , Filariose Linfática/diagnóstico , Filariose Linfática/sangue , Filariose Linfática/epidemiologia , Antígenos de Helmintos/sangue , Wuchereria bancrofti/imunologia , Animais , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Samoa , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Idoso , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/métodos , Fitas ReagentesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), a mosquito-borne helminth infection, is an important cause of chronic disability globally. The World Health Organization has validated eight Pacific Island countries as having eliminated lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem, but there are limited data to support an evidence-based approach to post-validation surveillance (PVS). Tonga was validated as having eliminated LF in 2017 but no surveillance has been conducted since 2015. This paper describes a protocol for an operational research project investigating different PVS methods in Tonga to provide an evidence base for national and regional PVS strategies. METHODS: Programmatic baseline surveys and Transmission Assessment Surveys conducted between 2000-2015 were reviewed to identify historically 'high-risk' and 'low-risk' schools and communities. 'High-risk' were those with LF antigen (Ag)-positive individuals recorded in more than one survey, whilst 'low-risk' were those with no recorded Ag-positives. The outcome measure for ongoing LF transmission will be Ag-positivity, diagnosed using Alere™ Filariasis Test Strips. A targeted study will be conducted in May-July 2024 including: (i) high and low-risk schools and communities, (ii) boarding schools, and (iii) patients attending a chronic-disease clinic. We estimate a total sample size of 2,010 participants. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology for targeted surveillance of suspected 'high-risk' populations using historical survey data can be adopted by countries when designing their PVS strategies. The results of this study will allow us to understand the current status of LF in Tonga and will be used to develop the next phase of activities.
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Erradicação de Doenças , Filariose Linfática , Filariose Linfática/epidemiologia , Filariose Linfática/transmissão , Filariose Linfática/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Tonga/epidemiologia , Erradicação de Doenças/métodos , Vigilância da População/métodos , Masculino , Feminino , Wuchereria bancrofti , CriançaRESUMO
Measles in persons with secondary vaccination failure (SVF) may be less infectious than cases in unvaccinated persons. Our systematic review aimed to assess transmission risk for measles after SVF. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from their inception dates. Inclusion criteria were articles describing persons who were exposed to measles-infected persons who had experienced SVF. Across the included 14 studies, >3,030 persons were exposed to measles virus from SVF cases, of whom 180 were susceptible, indicating secondary attack rates of 0%-6.25%. We identified 109 cases of SVF from the studies; 10.09% (n = 11) of case-patients transmitted the virus, resulting in 23 further cases and yielding an effective reproduction number of 0.063 (95% CI 0.0-0.5). These findings suggest a remarkably low attack rate for SVF measles cases, suggesting that, In outbreak situations, public health management of unvaccinated persons could be prioritized over persons with SVF.
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Vacina contra Sarampo , Vírus do Sarampo , Sarampo , Humanos , Sarampo/transmissão , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagem , Vírus do Sarampo/imunologia , Imunização Secundária , Surtos de Doenças , Falha de Tratamento , VacinaçãoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Circulating filarial antigen (Ag) is used by elimination programs to monitor lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission; however, antifilarial antibodies (Ab) may be more sensitive than Ag for detecting LF. Our objectives were to describe Ab seroprevalence, identify risk factors for Ab seropositivity, investigate age-specific associations between Ag and Ab, and evaluate geographic clustering of seropositivity. METHODS: Community-based serosurveys of participants aged ≥5 years were conducted in 35 primary sampling units (PSUs). Ag-positivity was detected using Alere™ Filariasis Test Strips and Ab-seropositivity using multiplex bead assays. Seroprevalence was adjusted for study design. RESULTS: Of 3795 participants (range:5-90 years), adjusted prevalence for Ag, Bm14 Ab, Wb123 Ab, and Bm33 Ab were 3.7% (n=117), 20.3% (n=583), 32.2% (n=987), and 51.0% (n=1659), respectively. Male sex, older age, and residents of suspected hotspots had higher odds of seropositivity to all seromarkers. Seroprevalence was lower in 5-9-year-olds vs ≥10-year-olds (p<0.001). Clustering was significantly higher in households (intra-cluster correlation for Ag:0.45; Bm14 Ab:0.32; Bm33 Ab:0.31; Wb123 Ab:0.29) compared to PSUs or region. CONCLUSIONS: Abs enabled identification of risk factors for seropositivity and geographical clustering to inform targeted interventions for LF programmes. Further research is needed to define Ab thresholds for active versus past infection and elimination targets.
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BACKGROUND: Gram-negative bloodstream infections (GNBSI) more commonly occur in children with comorbidities and are increasingly associated with antimicrobial resistance. There are few large studies of GNBSI in children that relate the clinical presentation, pathogen characteristics and outcomes. METHODS: A 3-year prospective study of GNBSI in children aged <18 years was conducted in five Australian children's hospitals between 2019-2021. The clinical characteristics, disease severity and outcomes were recorded. Causative pathogens underwent antibiotic susceptibility testing and whole genome sequencing. RESULTS: There were 931 GNBSI episodes involving 818 children. Median age was 3 years (IQR 0.6-8.5). 576/931 episodes (62%) were community onset though 661/931 (71%) occurred in children with comorbidities and a central venous catheter (CVC) was present in 558/931 (60%). CVC (145/931) and urinary tract (149/931) were the most common sources (16% each). 100/931 (11%) children required Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission and a further 11% (105/931) developed GNBSI in ICU. 659/927 (71%) isolates were Enterobacterales of which 22% (138/630) were third generation cephalosporin resistant (3GCR). Extended spectrum beta-lactamase genes (ESBL) were confirmed in 65/138 (47%) 3GCR-Enterobacterales. Most common ESBL genes were blaCTX-M-15 (34/94, 36%) and blaSHV-12 (10/94, 11%). There were 48 deaths overall and 30-day in-hospital mortality was 3% (32/931). Infections with 3GCR Enterobacterales were independently associated with higher mortality (adjusted OR 3.2, 95%CI 1.6-6.4). CONCLUSION: GNBSI in children are frequently healthcare-associated and affect children under 5 years. Infections with 3GCR Enterobacterales were associated with worse outcomes. These findings will inform optimal management guidelines and help prioritise future antimicrobial clinical trials.
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BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) remains a significant global issue. To eliminate LF as a public health problem, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends multiple rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). In certain scenarios, including when elimination targets have not been met with two-drug MDA, triple-drug MDA (using ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) is recommended. In this study, we report on antigen (Ag) and microfilaria (Mf) prevalence in eight primary sampling units (PSUs) in Samoa 4.5 years after one round of triple-drug MDA. METHODOLOGY: In 2023, community surveys were conducted in eight PSUs that had been surveyed previously in 2018 (between 1.5 and 3.5 months post triple-drug MDA) and 2019 (six to eight-months post triple-drug MDA). Fifteen houses were randomly selected in each PSU with household members aged ≥ 5 years invited to participate. Blood samples were tested for Ag and Mf. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ag-positive participants were observed in six of the eight PSUs, and Ag prevalence was significantly above the 1% threshold in four PSUs. The presence of Mf-positive participants in five PSUs confirms the presence of residual active infections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides evidence of persistent LF transmission in Samoa 4.5 years after one round of triple-drug MDA, confirming that one round was insufficient for interruption of transmission in this setting. Our findings highlight the negative impact of delaying MDA rounds, for example, due to public health emergencies.
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Albendazol , Dietilcarbamazina , Filariose Linfática , Filaricidas , Ivermectina , Administração Massiva de Medicamentos , Filariose Linfática/transmissão , Filariose Linfática/epidemiologia , Filariose Linfática/tratamento farmacológico , Filariose Linfática/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Albendazol/administração & dosagem , Albendazol/uso terapêutico , Samoa/epidemiologia , Dietilcarbamazina/administração & dosagem , Dietilcarbamazina/uso terapêutico , Ivermectina/administração & dosagem , Ivermectina/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Filaricidas/administração & dosagem , Filaricidas/uso terapêutico , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adolescente , Animais , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Prevalência , Antígenos de Helmintos/sangue , Quimioterapia Combinada , Pré-Escolar , Wuchereria bancrofti/efeitos dos fármacos , Wuchereria bancrofti/isolamento & purificação , IdosoRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the role of trust in shaping COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in the Dominican Republic (DR) during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Cross-sectional household survey. SETTING: Randomly selected households across 134 clusters in the DR, from 30 June 2021 to 12 October 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 5999 participants ≥16 years of age were enrolled. OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (CVH) data were collected from participants ≥16 years of age and analysed as both an ordinal and binary variable. RESULTS: Overall, CVH was low (5.2% (95% CI 4.6% to 5.8%)), but more common among younger individuals, women and individuals of Mestizo ethnicity. Higher trust in local government, national government, scientists and local doctors (considered official sources) was associated with lower odds of CVH (OR 0.89 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.88), 0.89 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.98), 0.87 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.94) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.80), respectively). Higher trust in religious leaders, social media and traditional media (considered unofficial sources) was associated with higher odds of CVH, with respective ORs of 1.32 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.47), 1.30 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.41) and 1.08 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.22). CONCLUSION: We report findings on CVH from a national household survey in the DR and identify overall low rates of CVH but marked heterogeneity by age, gender and ethnicity. Trust in unofficial versus official sources of information is associated with increased CVH. These findings highlight and quantify the importance of trust as a key parameter when considering public health communication strategies.
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Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Confiança , Hesitação Vacinal , Humanos , República Dominicana , Feminino , Masculino , Estudos Transversais , Adulto , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vacinas contra COVID-19/administração & dosagem , Hesitação Vacinal/psicologia , Hesitação Vacinal/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Idoso , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Immunisation against herpes zoster is recommended for adults aged ≥ 50 years. Two vaccines, a live attenuated (ZVL, Zostavax®) and an adjuvant recombinant subunit (HZ/su, Shingrix®), are available in Australia. Immunisation guidelines are shifting their recommendations towards HZ/su because of higher efficacy in preventing herpes zoster and associated complications. However, there are limited post-marketing data comparing the safety profiles of these vaccines. METHODS: Data from SmartVax, an active surveillance system for monitoring adverse events following immunisation (AEFIs) utilised by > 450 clinics throughout Australia, were analysed. Data from patients aged ≥ 50 years, who received ZVL or HZ/su, from 1 June 2021 to 31 May 2022, at clinics that utilised SmartVax were included. The proportion of records where patients who reported any, local, and systemic AEFIs after receiving ZVL or HZ/su were compared using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Data from 10,392 immunisation records (n = 8341 ZVL; n = 2051 HZ/su) were included. The proportion of AEFIs reported was higher with HZ/su (41.9 % [any], 33.8 % [local], 25.2 % [systemic]) than with ZVL (8.7 % [any], 6.2 % [local], 3.5 % [systemic]). After controlling for demographic variables, HZ/su presented a 6-fold increase in the odds (OR 6.44; 95 %CI: 5.57-7.46) of a reported AEFI compared to ZVL. Only 59 (0.6 %) of vaccinations lead to medical attention being sought due to an AEFI. CONCLUSIONS: While rates of AEFIs was higher with HZ/su than ZVL, most AEFIs were mild and did not require medical attention. Our findings support the change in vaccine recommendations and the use of HZ/su in immunisation programs.
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Vacina contra Herpes Zoster , Herpes Zoster , Vigilância de Produtos Comercializados , Humanos , Vacina contra Herpes Zoster/efeitos adversos , Vacina contra Herpes Zoster/administração & dosagem , Vacina contra Herpes Zoster/imunologia , Austrália/epidemiologia , Herpes Zoster/prevenção & controle , Herpes Zoster/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Vacinação/efeitos adversos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Vacinas Atenuadas/efeitos adversos , Vacinas Atenuadas/administração & dosagem , Vacinas Atenuadas/imunologia , Herpesvirus Humano 3/imunologia , Sistemas de Notificação de Reações Adversas a Medicamentos/estatística & dados numéricosAssuntos
Febre de Chikungunya , Vacinas contra Dengue , Dengue , Medicina de Viagem , Humanos , Dengue/prevenção & controle , Febre de Chikungunya/prevenção & controle , Medicina de Viagem/métodos , Vacinas contra Dengue/administração & dosagem , Vírus Chikungunya/imunologia , Viagem , Vírus da Dengue/imunologia , Vacinas Virais/administração & dosagemAssuntos
Dengue , Viagem , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Austrália , Vacinas contra Dengue/administração & dosagem , IdosoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Despite the World Health Organisation certifying China malaria-free in 2021, the risk of local transmission caused by imported malaria cases remains a significant clinical and public health issue. It is necessary to present the changing trends of malaria in China and discuss the role of travel medicine services in consolidating malaria elimination. METHODS: This study systematically reviewed articles and reports related to human malaria from 2013 to 2022 published in international and Chinese databases. Data on malaria (i.e. number of cases, Plasmodium spp., diagnostic method, country of acquisition, provinces with high risk of re-introduction and transmission) were collected and synthesised, then summarised using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Overall, 24 758 cases of malaria (>99.5% laboratory confirmed, > 99.2% imported, 0.5% fatal) were reported in China from 2013 to 2022, with a downward trend over the years (4128 cases in 2013 compared to 843 cases in 2022; χ2 trend p-value = 0.005). The last locally acquired case was reported in 2017. P. falciparum (65.5%) was the most common species identified, followed by P. vivax (20.9%) and P. ovale (10.0%). Two Pheidole knowlesi cases were also identified in 2014 and 2017 in returned travellers from Malaysia and Indonesia, respectively. The most common countries of malaria acquisition were Ghana, Angola, and Myanmar. P. vivax was mainly detected in returned travellers from Myanmar, while P. falciparum and P. ovale were detected in travellers from Sub-Saharan Africa. Imported cases were mainly reported in Yunnan, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Guangxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Henan provinces, where large numbers of Chinese people travel overseas for work. CONCLUSION: Returned travellers from malaria-endemic countries pose a significant risk of malaria re-introduction to China. Travel medicine should be strengthened to improve the capacity and accessibility of both pre- and post-travel services, including malaria prophylaxis and prompt diagnosis of illness in returned travellers.
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Geographically weighted regression (GWR) takes a prominent role in spatial regression analysis, providing a nuanced perspective on the intricate interplay of variables within geographical landscapes (Brunsdon et al., 1998). However, it is essential to have a strong rationale for employing GWR, either as an addition to, or a complementary analysis alongside, non-spatial (global) regression models (Kiani, Mamiya et al., 2023). Moreover, the proper selection of bandwidth, weighting function or kernel types, and variable choices constitute the most critical configurations in GWR analysis (Wheeler, 2021). [...].
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Regressão Espacial , Análise Espacial , GeografiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: International travel can increase the risk of exposure to infectious diseases including sexually transmissible infections (STI). Pre-travel medical consultation provides an opportunity for travel-related health risk assessments and advice. This study explored how travel medicine clinicians integrate sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services into clinical practice. METHODS: A convenience sample of travel medicine clinicians completed a cross-sectional survey online or via hard-copy disseminated at an annual national Australian travel medicine conference. RESULTS: Of the 67 respondents, most (n , 51; 76.1%) had a postgraduate qualification relevant to travel medicine and 55.2% (n , 37) had worked in travel medicine for over 10years. Only 22.4% (n , 15) reported conducting a SRH history/STI risk assessment for all travel patients. STI testing pre-departure was conducted on patient request (48, 71.6%), if symptomatic (32, 47.8%) or based on risk history (28, 41.8%). SRH information pre-departure was most frequently provided if prompted by patient questions (n , 42; 62.7%), or based on the patient's history (n , 37; 55.2%). Over half the sample (n , 40; 59.7%) expressed interest in further training in SRH. CONCLUSION: Providing and engaging with additional training may assist travel medicine clinicians to take a more proactive approach to SRH consultations and STI testing. Additional research is needed to explore models of care that will allow comprehensive SRH and STI services to be integrated into standard pre- and post-travel care.
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Saúde Reprodutiva , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Medicina de Viagem , Viagem , Austrália , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Inquéritos e Questionários , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to pose a significant burden in endemic countries, many of which lack access to molecular surveillance. Insights from malaria cases in travellers returning to non-endemic areas can provide valuable data to inform endemic country programmes. To evaluate the potential for novel global insights into malaria, we examined epidemiological and molecular data from imported malaria cases to Australia. METHODS: We analysed malaria cases reported in Australia from 2012 to 2022 using National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System data. Molecular data on imported malaria cases were obtained from literature searches. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2022, 3204 malaria cases were reported in Australia. Most cases (69%) were male and 44% occurred in young adults aged 20-39 years. Incidence rates initially declined between 2012 and 2015, then increased until 2019. During 2012-2019, the incidence in travellers ranged from 1.34 to 7.71 per 100 000 trips. Cases were primarily acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 1433; 45%), Oceania (n = 569; 18%) and Southern and Central Asia (n = 367; 12%). The most common countries of acquisition were Papua New Guinea (n = 474) and India (n = 277). Plasmodium falciparum accounted for 58% (1871/3204) of cases and was predominantly acquired in Sub-Saharan Africa, and Plasmodium vivax accounted for 32% (1016/3204), predominantly from Oceania and Asia. Molecular studies of imported malaria cases to Australia identified genetic mutations and deletions associated with drug resistance and false-negative rapid diagnostic test results, and led to the establishment of reference genomes for P. vivax and Plasmodium malariae. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights the continuing burden of imported malaria into Australia. Molecular studies have offered valuable insights into drug resistance and diagnostic limitations, and established reference genomes. Integrating molecular data into national surveillance systems could provide important infectious disease intelligence to optimize treatment guidelines for returning travellers and support endemic country surveillance programmes.
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Malária Vivax , Malária , Adulto Jovem , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Viagem , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária/tratamento farmacológico , Malária/epidemiologia , Plasmodium falciparum , Austrália/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Incidence of COVID-19 has been associated with sociodemographic factors. We investigated variations in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence at sub-national levels in the Dominican Republic and assessed potential factors influencing variation in regional-level seroprevalence. Data were collected in a three-stage cross-sectional national serosurvey from June to October 2021. Seroprevalence of antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (anti-S) was estimated and adjusted for selection probability, age, and sex. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the effect of covariates on seropositivity for anti-S and correlates of 80% protection (PT80) against symptomatic infection for the ancestral and Delta strains. A total of 6683 participants from 134 clusters in all 10 regions were enrolled. Anti-S, PT80 for the ancestral and Delta strains odds ratio varied across regions, Enriquillo presented significant higher odds for all outcomes compared with Yuma. Compared to being unvaccinated, receiving ≥2 doses of COVID-19 vaccine was associated with a significantly higher odds of anti-S positivity (OR 85.94, [10.95-674.33]) and PT80 for the ancestral (OR 4.78, [2.15-10.62]) and Delta strains (OR 3.08, [1.57-9.65]) nationally and also for each region. Our results can help inform regional-level public health response, such as strategies to increase vaccination coverage in areas with low population immunity against currently circulating strains.
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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is included in the ten most urgent global public health threats. Global evidence suggests that antibiotics were over prescribed during the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Inappropriate use of antibiotics drives the emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance. This study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 on Ni-Vanuatu health worker knowledge, beliefs, and practices (KBP) regarding antibiotic prescribing and awareness of antibacterial AMR. A mixed methods study was conducted using questionnaires and in-depth interviews in 2018 and 2022. A total of 49 respondents completed both baseline (2018) and follow-up (2022) questionnaires. Knowledge scores about prescribing improved between surveys, although health workers were less confident about some prescribing activities. Respondents identified barriers to optimal hand hygiene performance. More than three-quarters of respondents reported that COVID-19 influenced their prescribing practice and heightened their awareness of ABR: "more careful", "more aware", "stricter", and "need more community awareness". Recommendations include providing ongoing continuing professional development to improve knowledge, enhance skills, and maintain prescribing competency; formalising antibiotic stewardship and infection, prevention, and control (IPC) programmes to optimise prescribing and IPC practices; and raising community awareness about ABR to support more effective use of medications.
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Leptospirosis, a global zoonotic disease, is prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions, including Fiji where it's endemic with year-round cases and sporadic outbreaks coinciding with heavy rainfall. However, the relationship between climate and leptospirosis has not yet been well characterised in the South Pacific. In this study, we quantify the effects of different climatic indicators on leptospirosis incidence in Fiji, using a time series of weekly case data between 2006 and 2017. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixed-model framework to explore the impact of different precipitation, temperature, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators on leptospirosis cases over a 12-year period. We found that total precipitation from the previous six weeks (lagged by one week) was the best precipitation indicator, with increased total precipitation leading to increased leptospirosis incidence (0.24 [95% CrI 0.15-0.33]). Negative values of the Niño 3.4 index (indicative of La Niña conditions) lagged by four weeks were associated with increased leptospirosis risk (-0.2 [95% CrI -0.29 --0.11]). Finally, minimum temperature (lagged by one week) when included with the other variables was positively associated with leptospirosis risk (0.15 [95% CrI 0.01-0.30]). We found that the final model was better able to capture the outbreak peaks compared with the baseline model (which included seasonal and inter-annual random effects), particularly in the Western and Northern division, with climate indicators improving predictions 58.1% of the time. This study identified key climatic factors influencing leptospirosis risk in Fiji. Combining these results with demographic and spatial factors can support a precision public health framework allowing for more effective public health preparedness and response which targets interventions to the right population, place, and time. This study further highlights the need for enhanced surveillance data and is a necessary first step towards the development of a climate-based early warning system.
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BACKGROUND: Scabies is a common skin infestation caused by the Sarcoptes scabei mite. Ivermectin, one of three drugs used in mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis, is also effective for treating scabies. Ivermectin-based MDA was first conducted in Samoa in August 2018, with ivermectin being offered to those aged ≥5 years. Here, we report scabies prevalence in Samoa after MDA. METHODS: We conducted household surveys 1.5-3.5 months (Survey 1) and 6-8 months (Survey 2) after the 2018 MDA in 35 primary sampling units. We conducted clinical examination for scabies-like rash and used International Alliance for the Control of Scabies classification criteria. We estimated scabies prevalence by age, gender and region. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with prevalence. RESULTS: We surveyed 2868 people (499 households) and 2796 people (544 households) aged 0-75 years in Surveys 1 and 2, respectively. Scabies prevalence increased from 2.4% (95% CI 2.1-2.7%) to 4.4% (95% CI 4.0-4.9%) between surveys. Scabies was associated with younger age (0-4 years: aOR 3.5 [2.9-4.2]; 5-15 years: aOR 1.6 [1.4-1.8] compared to ≥16 years), female gender (aOR 1.2 [95% CI 1.1-1.4]; region (aOR range from 1.4 [1.1-1.7] to 2.5 [2.1-3.1] between regions), large households (aOR 2.6 [2.0-3.4] households ≥13), and not taking MDA in 2018 (aOR 1.3 [95% CI 1.1-1.6]). CONCLUSIONS: We found moderate prevalence of scabies in two population-representative surveys conducted within 8 months of the 2018 MDA for lymphatic filariasis. Prevalence appeared to increase between the surveys, and ongoing surveillance is recommended, particularly in young children.
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Filariose Linfática , Escabiose , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Ivermectina/uso terapêutico , Escabiose/tratamento farmacológico , Escabiose/epidemiologia , Filariose Linfática/tratamento farmacológico , Filariose Linfática/epidemiologia , Administração Massiva de Medicamentos , Prevalência , Samoa/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: During pre-travel consultations, clinicians and travellers face the challenge of weighing the risks verus benefits of Japanese encephalitis (JE) vaccination due to the high cost of the vaccine, low incidence in travellers (~1 in 1 million), but potentially severe consequences (~30% case-fatality rate). Personalised JE risk assessment based on the travellers' demographics and travel itinerary is challenging using standard risk matrices. We developed an interactive digital tool to estimate risks of JE infection and severe health outcomes under different scenarios to facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and travellers. METHODS: A Bayesian network (conditional probability) model risk-benefit analysis of JE vaccine in travellers was developed. The model considers travellers' characteristics (age, sex, co-morbidities), itinerary (destination, departure date, duration, setting of planned activities) and vaccination status to estimate the risks of JE infection, the development of symptomatic disease (meningitis, encephalitis), clinical outcomes (hospital admission, chronic neurological complications, death) and adverse events following immunization. RESULTS: In low-risk travellers (e.g. to urban areas for <1 month), the risk of developing JE and dying is low (<1 per million) irrespective of the destination; thus, the potential impact of JE vaccination in reducing the risk of clinical outcomes is limited. In high-risk travellers (e.g. to rural areas in high JE incidence destinations for >2 months), the risk of developing symptomatic disease and mortality is estimated at 9.5 and 1.4 per million, respectively. JE vaccination in this group would significantly reduce the risk of symptomatic disease and mortality (by ~80%) to 1.9 and 0.3 per million, respectively. CONCLUSION: The JE tool may assist decision-making by travellers and clinicians and could increase JE vaccine uptake. The tool will be updated as additional evidence becomes available. Future work needs to evaluate the usability of the tool. The interactive, scenario-based, personalised JE vaccine risk-benefit tool is freely available on www.VaxiCal.com.