Travel time prediction of urban public transportation based on detection of single routes.

Improving travel time prediction for public transit effectively enhances service reliability, optimizes travel structure, and alleviates traffic problems. Its greater time-variance and uncertainty make predictions for short travel times (≤35min) more subject to be influenced by random factors. It requires higher precision and is more complicated than long-term predictions. Effectively extracting and mining real-time, accurate, reliable, and low-cost multi-source data such as GPS, AFC, and IC can provide data support for travel time prediction. Kalman filter model has high accuracy in one-step prediction and can be used to calculate a large amount of data. This paper adopts the Kalman filter as a travel time prediction model for a single bus based on single-line detection: including the travel time prediction model of route (RTM) and the stop dwell time prediction model (DTM); the evaluation criteria and indexes of the models are given. The error analysis of the prediction results is carried out based on AVL data by case study. Results show that under the precondition of multi-source data, the public transportation prediction model can meet the accuracy requirement for travel time prediction and the prediction effect of the whole route is superior to that of the route segment between stops.

Research on the method of travel area clustering of urban public transport based on Sage-Husa adaptive filter and improved DBSCAN algorithm.

The travel trajectory data of mobile intelligent terminal users are characterized by clutter, incompleteness, noise, fuzzy randomness. The accuracy of original data is an essential prerequisite for better results of trajectory data mining. The Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) is one of the most effective trajectory data mining methods, but the selection of input parameters often limits it. The Sage-Husa adaptive filtering algorithm effectively controls the error range of mobile phone GPS data, which can meet the positioning accuracy requirements for DBSCAN spatial clustering having the advantages of low cost and convenient use. Then, a novel cluster validity index was proposed based on the internal and external duty cycle to balance the influence of the distance within-cluster, the distance between clusters, and the number of coordinate points in the process of clustering. The index can automatically choose input parameters of density clustering, and the effective clustering can be formed on different data sets. The optimized clustering method can be applied to the in-depth analysis and mining of traveler behavior trajectories. Experiments show that the Sage -Husa adaptive filtering algorithm proposed further improves the positioning accuracy of GPS, which is 17.34% and 15.24% higher eastward and northward, 14.25%, and 18.17% higher in 2D and 3D dimensions, respectively. The number of noise points is significantly reduced. At the same time, compared with the traditional validity index, the evaluation index based on the duty cycle proposed can optimize the input parameters and obtain better clustering results of traveler location information.