Summer rain and wet soil rather than management affect the distribution of a toxic plant in production grasslands.

In the northern forelands of the Alps, farmers report an increase of Jacobaea aquatica in production grasslands. Due to its toxicity, the species affects grassland productivity and calls for costly control measures. We are investigating the extent to which management practices or climatic factors are responsible for the increase of the species and how the situation will change due to climate change. We tested for effects of management intensity, fertilization, agri-environmental measures, and soil disturbance, and modeled the occurrence of the species under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios. The main determinants of the occurrence of the species are soil type and summer rainfall. A high risk is associated with wet soils and > 400 mm of rain between June and August; an influence of the management-related factors could not be detected. Under the climate-change scenarios, the overall distribution decreases and shifts to the wetter alpine regions. Thus, the current increase is rather a shift in the occurrence of the species due to the altered precipitation situation. Under future climatic conditions, the species will decline and retreat to higher regions in the Alps. This will decrease the risk of forage contamination for production grassland in the lowlands.