Understanding the distribution of positive Legionella samples in healthcare-premise water systems: Using statistical analysis to determine a distribution for Legionella and to support sample size recommendations.

OBJECTIVE: To significantly fit a statistical distribution to the proportion of positive Legionella samples in a series of water samples from multiple facility-premise water systems. DESIGN: Statistical fit test. SETTING: A hospital and associated long-term care facility (LTCF) in New York State, as well as temporal and culture data from a deidentified hospital site supplied by one of the vendor laboratories. METHODS: Culture samples (n = 1,393) were segmented into 139 test cycles with roughly 10 samples in each. The proportion of positive samples was standardized to 25 total samples per test to give a distribution of discrete values. These values were analyzed for fit with the following discrete distributions: Poisson, negative binomial, geometric, and zero-inflated Poisson. RESULTS: The zero-inflated Poisson distribution fitted to the copper-silver ionization (CSI)-treated and untreated test cycles indicates that 88% of the expected positive proportions should occur by the 30% cutoff (rounded up to 8 positive samples among 25 total samples), similar to the 93% expectation for just CSI-treated test cycles. The other treatment in these data (chlorine dioxide) was not effective in treating Legionella in the sampled buildings, and if there is an underlying distribution to these specific test cycles, it is not the zero-inflated Poisson distribution. CONCLUSIONS: In a well-maintained or well-treated premise water distribution system, ~30% or lower proportion of positive Legionella samples should occur. Anything above that cutoff is either very unlikely or not expected at all and indicates a problem in the water system.

Outbreak of Mycoplasma pneumoniae-Associated Stevens-Johnson Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Stevens-Johnson syndrome (SJS) is an uncommon, sporadic disease and outbreaks are rare. In November 2013, an outbreak of SJS was identified at Children's Hospital Colorado. METHODS: Outbreak cases were children aged 5-21 with a discharge diagnosis of SJS admitted from September 1 to November 30, 2013. Medical charts were reviewed using standardized data collection forms. Respiratory specimens were tested for viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We conducted a separate 4-year retrospective case-control study comparing hospitalized SJS cases with and without evidence of Mp infection. RESULTS: During the outbreak, 8 children met SJS criteria. Median age was 11.5 years (range 8-16 years); 5 (63%) were boys and 5 (63%) were Mp-PCR-positive. Of the 5 PCR-positive children, none had preceding medication exposure, and all had radiographic pneumonia. All outbreak Mp isolates were macrolide susceptible. The retrospective case-control analysis showed that Mp-associated SJS episodes (n = 17) were more likely to have pneumonia (odds ratio [OR] 7.5, confidence interval [CI] 1.6­35.1), preceding respiratory symptoms (OR 30.0, CI 3.3­269.4) [corrected] an erythrocyte sedimentation rate ≥35 mg/dL (OR 22.8, CI 2.1-244.9), and ≤3 affected skin sites (OR 4.5, CI 1.2-17.4) than non-Mp-associated SJS episodes (n = 23). CONCLUSIONS: We report the largest outbreak of SJS in children, which was also predominately associated with Mp infection. Mp-associated SJS was associated with a distinct clinical presentation that included less extensive skin disease, an elevated erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and evidence of a preceding respiratory infection.