More than 20 procedures are necessary to learn small bowel capsule endoscopy: Learning curve pilot study of 535 trainee cases.

Background and study aims The number of procedures needed to acquire a sufficient level of skills to perform an unassisted evaluation of small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) is unknown. We aimed to establish learning curves, diagnostic accuracy, and the number of procedures needed for reviewing small bowel capsule endoscopies unassisted. Methods An expert panel developed a 1-day course including lessons (examination, anatomy, and pathology) and hands-on training. After completing the course, participants received 50 cases in a randomized sequence. An interactive questionnaire about landmarks, findings, and diagnosis followed each case. After submitting the questionnaire, participants received feedback. Data are presented using CUSUM (cumulative sum control chart) learning curves and sensitivity/specificity analyses compared with expert opinions. Results We included 22 gastroenterologists from 11 different Danish hospitals. A total of 535 cases were reviewed (mean: 28; range: 11-50). CUSUM plots demonstrated learning progression for diagnosis and findings during the course, but none of the participants reached a learning plateau with sufficient competencies. The sensitivity for all findings was 65% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.51-0.82) for the first 20 procedures and 67% (95% CI 0.58-0.73) from case 21 until completion or dropout. The specificity was 63% (95% CI 0.52-0.74) for the first 20 procedures and 57% (95% CI 0.37-0.77) for the rest. Conclusions Our data indicate that learning SBCE may be more difficult than previously recognized due to low discriminative abilities after 20 cases except for the identification of CD. This indicates that 20 SBCE cases may not be sufficient to achieve competency for reviewing SBCE without supervision.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

The interaction of patients' physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: A national prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The correct time to perform an upper endoscopy is decisive in acutely GI bleeding patients. However, patients' physical status may affect mortality. We speculated that the physical status and procedural time could be the principal factors accountable for death-risk. The primary aim was to verify the interaction between physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality; the secondary aim was to verify the interaction of the physical status and time to endoscopy on the length of stay (LOS). METHODS: Consecutive patients admitted to 50 Italian hospitals were included. Clinical and endoscopic data were recorded. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and the interaction of adjusted clinical physical status and time to endoscopy on mortality was calculated. RESULTS: Complete data were available for 3.190 patients. The time frames did not interfere with outcomes but influenced LOS. Conversely, the ASA score correlated with mortality, LOS, need for transfusions and rebleeding risk. CONCLUSION: Endoscopy time should be tailored to the patient's physical. In our experience, ASA 1-2-3 patients can be safely submitted to endoscopy to reduce the LOS; on the contrary, keen attention should be paid to ASA4 patients, following the 'not too early-not too late' rule (12-24 h from admission).

Doppler-Guided Second-Look Endoscopy in Peptic Ulcer Bleeding: A Randomised Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic treatment guided by Doppler endoscopic probes (DEPs) during index endoscopy may be associated with improved outcome in patients with peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). As competencies for DEP evaluation are not always available for index endoscopy, we examined the outcome associated with DEP evaluation at second-look endoscopy. METHODS: The study was designed as a non-blinded, parallel group, randomised controlled trial. Patients admitted with PUB from Forrest Ia-IIb ulcers, controlled by endoscopic therapy, were randomised (1:1 ratio) to second-look endoscopy <24 h with DEP evaluation of the bleeding ulcer or continued standard treatment. Patients were followed up for 30 days. The primary outcome was rebleeding. Secondary outcomes included the number of transfusions, length of hospital stay, and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients were included. At second-look endoscopy, 91% (29/32) of patients had a positive DEP signal at the ulcer base and were treated with contact thermal therapy (n = 29), injection of diluted adrenaline (n = 23), and haemoclips (n = 7). Among the 32 patients treated with DEP evaluation, only one rebled (3%) compared to four patients (13%) in the control group (p = 0.20). There were no differences in the secondary outcomes between groups, and there were no complications related to DEP evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: Second-look endoscopy with DEP-guided evaluation and treatment is safe and associated with a very low risk of rebleeding (3%) in patients with PUB. Second-look endoscopy with DEP evaluation may be considered in selected PUB patients at high risk of rebleeding, and may represent an alternative to the use of DEP for index endoscopy. Nevertheless, we did not find that second-look endoscopy with DEP evaluation significantly improved patient outcome compared to standard treatment.

Rebleeding in peptic ulcer bleeding - a nationwide cohort study of 19,537 patients.

BACKGROUND: Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). The associated prognosis remains rather unclear because previous studies generally also included non-ulcer lesions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify predictors for rebleeding; clarify the prognostic consequence of rebleeding; and develop a score for predicting rebleeding. METHODS: Nationwide cohort study of consecutive patients presenting to hospital with PUB in Denmark from 2006-2014. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictors for rebleeding, evaluate the association between rebleeding and 30-day mortality, and develop a score to predict rebleeding. Patients with persistent bleeding were excluded. RESULTS: Among 19,258 patients (mean age 74 years, mean ASA-score 2.4), 10.8% rebled, and 10.2% died. Strongest predictors for rebleeding were endoscopic high-risk stigmata of bleeding (Odds Ratio (OR): 2.12 [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.91-2.36]), bleeding from duodenal ulcers (OR: 1.87 [95% CI: 1.69-2.08]), and presentation with hemodynamic instability (OR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.38-1.73]). Among patients with all three factors (7.9% of total), 24% rebled, 50% with rebleeding failed endoscopic therapy, and 23% died. Rebleeding was associated with increased mortality (OR: 2.04 [95% CI: 1.78-2.32]). We were unable to develop an accurate score to predict rebleeding. CONCLUSION: Rebleeding occurs in ∼10% of patients with PUB and is overall associated with a two-fold increase in 30-day mortality. Patients with hemodynamic instability, duodenal ulcers, and high-risk endoscopic stigmata are at highest risk of rebleeding. When rebleeding occurs in such patients, consultation with surgery and/or interventional radiology should be obtained prior to repeat endoscopy.

Assessment of esophagogastroduodenoscopy skills on simulators before real-life performance.

Background and study aims Operator competency is essential for esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) quality, which makes appropriate training with a final test important. The aims of this study were to develop a test for assessing skills in performing EGD, gather validity evidence for the test, and establish a credible pass/fail score. Methods An expert panel developed a practical test using the Simbionix GI Mentor II simulator (3 D Systems) and an EGD phantom (OGI 4, CLA Medical) with a diagnostic (DP) and a technical skills part (TSP) for a prospective validation study. During the test a supervisor measured: 1) total time; 2) degree of mucosal visualization; and 3) landmarks and pathology identification. The contrasting groups standard setting method was used to establish a pass/fail score. Results We included 15 novices (N), 10 intermediates (I), and 10 experienced endoscopists (E). The internal structure was high with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.76 for TSP time consumption and 0.74 for the identification of landmarks. Mean total times, in minutes, for the DP were N 15.7, I 11.3, and E 7.0, and for TSP., they were N 7.9, I 8.9, and E 2.9. The total numbers of identified landmarks were N 26, I 41, and E 48. Mean visualization percentages were N 80, I 71, and E 71. A pass/fail standard was established requiring identification of all landmarks and performance of the TSP in < 5 minutes. All experienced endoscopists passed, while none of the endoscopists in the other categories did. Conclusions We established a test that can distinguish between participants with different competencies. This enables an objective and evidence-based approach to assessment of competencies in EGD.

International multicenter study comparing demographics, therapy and outcomes in bleeding from Mallory Weiss tears and peptic ulcers.

Background and study aims Mallory Weiss tears (MWTs) are relatively uncommon causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB), and patients are generally considered at low risk of poor outcome, although data are limited. There is uncertainty about use of endoscopic therapy. We aimed to describe and compare an international cohort of patients presenting with UGIB secondary to MWT and peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB). Patients and methods From an international dataset of patients undergoing endoscopy for acute UGIB at seven hospitals, we assessed patients with MWT bleeding, including the endoscopic stigmata and endoscopic therapy applied. We compared baseline parameters, rebleeding rate, and 30-day mortality between patients with MWT and PUB. Results A total of 3648 patients presented with UGIB, 125 of whom (3.4 %) had bleeding from a MWT. Those patients were younger (61 vs 69 years, P  < 0.0001) and more likely to be men (66 % vs 53 %, P  = 0.006) compared to the patients PUB. The most common endoscopic stigmata seen in MWTs were oozing blood (26 %) or clean base (26 %). Of the patients with MWT, 53 (42 %) received endoscopic therapy. Forty-eight of them (90 %) had epinephrine injections and 25 (48 %) had through-the-scope clips. The rebleeding rate was lower in MWT patients compared with PUB patients (4.9 % vs 12 %, P  = 0.016), but mortality was similar (5.7 vs 7.0 %, P  = 0.71). Conclusions Although patients presenting with MWT were younger, with a lower rebleeding rate, their mortality was similar to that of patients with PUB. Endoscopic therapy was applied to 42 % MWT patients, with epinephrine injection as the most common modality.

Endoscopic treatment of gastric antral vascular ectasia.

Gastric antral vascular ectasia is characterized endoscopically by stripes of dilated blood vessels in the antrum. It is a well-known cause of gastrointestinal blood loss, anaemia, and recurrent need for blood transfusion. The treatment may be challenging, and an overview is given in this review. Pharmacological treatment has not been effective, endoscopic treatment is more tolerable than abdominal surgery. The endoscopic modalities, including argon plasma coagulation, endoscopic band ligation, and radiofrequency ablation are safe and relative efficient. Comparative studies are sparse but indicate the modalities as equally effective.

Hypotension develops one to two hours before other symptoms in peptic ulcer rebleeding; a matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Rebleeding is a frequent complication of peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) and is associated with increased mortality. Blood pressure and heart rate are two easy non-invasive measurements to evaluate the hemodynamics and therefore a standard observation during hospitalization. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the dynamics of systolic blood pressure and heart rate up to time of peptic ulcer rebleeding. DESIGN: Retrospective matched cohort study. Hemodynamics in patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding was compared to hemodynamics in a matched control group consisting of patients with PUB without rebleeding. Blood pressure and heart rate in the six hours up to diagnosis of rebleeding was compared with baseline in the case cohort as well as with the matched control group. RESULTS: Thirty-eight patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding and 66 controls were included. Mean age was 75 years, 62% were males and 30-day mortality was 23%. Baseline systolic blood pressure in cases was 114 mmHg. Compared to baseline, we found significant decrease in systolic blood pressure two hours before rebleeding (4 mmHg; p = 0.041) and one hour before rebleeding (14 mmHg; p = 0.0002). Mean systolic blood pressure 30 min before rebleeding was 89 mmHg. No significant change was found in heart rate (p = 0.99). In the control group no change was found in systolic blood pressure or heart rate. CONCLUSION: In patients with peptic ulcer rebleeding, hypotension develops 1-2 h before other symptoms of rebleeding. Thus, close monitoring of blood pressure is needed in order to ensure early identification of rebleeding in high-risk patients.

[Risk scoring systems for assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding].

Many scoring systems have been developed to predict various outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) including need-for-intervention, endoscopy, transfusion and/or death. This review summarises the present knowledge of the various scoring systems. It has been impossible to develop one score to predict all outcomes of interest. Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) is shown to be superior to predict hospital-based intervention or death. For mortality, the newly developed ABC score seems promising. International guidelines recommend routine use of GBS to assess patients with UGIB, which is shown to reduce hospital admissions, length-of-stay and cost utilisation.

Analysis of patterns of bacteremia and 30-day mortality in patients with acute cholangitis over a 25-year period.

INTRODUCTION: Acute cholangitis (AC) is a condition of bacterial infection in the biliary tract with a high mortality rate of around 10%. Direct association between presence of bacteremia and 30-day mortality among AC patients is sparsely investigated and remains unclear. AIMS AND METHODS: Our aim was to investigate association between bacteremia and 30-day mortality among patients with AC included over a period of 25 years. All AC patients that underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) at Odense University Hospital, between 1 January 1990 and 31 October 2015, were identified using a prospective ERCP database. Blood culture results from the patients along with antimicrobial resistance patterns were collected from a bacteremia research database. RESULTS: During the study period, 775 consecutive AC patients underwent ERCP and blood cultures were collected from 528 patients. Among these patients 48% (n = 260) had bacteremia. Overall, 30-day mortality in patients with blood cultures performed was 13% (n = 69). In patients with bacteremia, 30-day mortality was 19% (n = 49), compared to 7% (n = 20) in patients without bacteremia (p < .01). Presence of bacteremia was associated with increased 30-day mortality (OR [95% CI]: 3.43 [1.92-6.13]; p < .01) following adjustment for confounding factors. Among the species, bacteremia with Enterobacter cloacae was significantly associated with increased 30-day mortality (OR [95% CI]: 2.97 [1.16-7.62]; p = .02). CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that presence of bacteremia was associated with a nearly fourfold increase in 30-day mortality among AC patients.

Endoscopic diagnosis and management of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (NVUGIH): European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) Guideline - Update 2021.

1: ESGE recommends in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH) the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Score (GBS) for pre-endoscopy risk stratification. Patients with GBS ≤ 1 are at very low risk of rebleeding, mortality within 30 days, or needing hospital-based intervention and can be safely managed as outpatients with outpatient endoscopy.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 2: ESGE recommends that in patients with acute UGIH who are taking low-dose aspirin as monotherapy for secondary cardiovascular prophylaxis, aspirin should not be interrupted. If for any reason it is interrupted, aspirin should be re-started as soon as possible, preferably within 3-5 days.Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 3: ESGE recommends that following hemodynamic resuscitation, early (≤ 24 hours) upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy should be performed. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 4: ESGE does not recommend urgent (≤ 12 hours) upper GI endoscopy since as compared to early endoscopy, patient outcomes are not improved. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 5: ESGE recommends for patients with actively bleeding ulcers (FIa, FIb), combination therapy using epinephrine injection plus a second hemostasis modality (contact thermal or mechanical therapy). Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 6: ESGE recommends for patients with an ulcer with a nonbleeding visible vessel (FIIa), contact or noncontact thermal therapy, mechanical therapy, or injection of a sclerosing agent, each as monotherapy or in combination with epinephrine injection. Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 7 : ESGE suggests that in patients with persistent bleeding refractory to standard hemostasis modalities, the use of a topical hemostatic spray/powder or cap-mounted clip should be considered. Weak recommendation, low quality evidence. 8: ESGE recommends that for patients with clinical evidence of recurrent peptic ulcer hemorrhage, use of a cap-mounted clip should be considered. In the case of failure of this second attempt at endoscopic hemostasis, transcatheter angiographic embolization (TAE) should be considered. Surgery is indicated when TAE is not locally available or after failed TAE. Strong recommendation, moderate quality evidence. 9: ESGE recommends high dose proton pump inhibitor (PPI) therapy for patients who receive endoscopic hemostasis and for patients with FIIb ulcer stigmata (adherent clot) not treated endoscopically. (A): PPI therapy should be administered as an intravenous bolus followed by continuous infusion (e. g., 80 mg then 8 mg/hour) for 72 hours post endoscopy. (B): High dose PPI therapies given as intravenous bolus dosing (twice-daily) or in oral formulation (twice-daily) can be considered as alternative regimens.Strong recommendation, high quality evidence. 10: ESGE recommends that in patients who require ongoing anticoagulation therapy following acute NVUGIH (e. g., peptic ulcer hemorrhage), anticoagulation should be resumed as soon as the bleeding has been controlled, preferably within or soon after 7 days of the bleeding event, based on thromboembolic risk. The rapid onset of action of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACS), as compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs), must be considered in this context.Strong recommendation, low quality evidence.

ABC score: a new risk score that accurately predicts mortality in acute upper and lower gastrointestinal bleeding: an international multicentre study.

OBJECTIVES: Existing scores are not accurate at predicting mortality in upper (UGIB) and lower (LGIB) gastrointestinal bleeding. We aimed to develop and validate a new pre-endoscopy score for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB. DESIGN AND SETTING: International cohort study. Patients presenting to hospital with UGIB at six international centres were used to develop a risk score for predicting mortality using regression analyses. The score's performance in UGIB and LGIB was externally validated and compared with existing scores using four international datasets. We calculated areas under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs), sensitivities, specificities and outcome among patients classified as low risk and high risk. PARTICIPANTS AND RESULTS: We included 3012 UGIB patients in the development cohort, and 4019 UGIB and 2336 LGIB patients in the validation cohorts. Age, Blood tests and Comorbidities (ABC) score was closer associated with mortality in UGIB and LGIB (AUROCs: 0.81-84) than existing scores (AUROCs: 0.65-0.75; p≤0.02). In UGIB, patients with low ABC score (≤3), medium ABC score (4-7) and high ABC score (≥8) had 30-day mortality rates of 1.0%, 7.0% and 25%, respectively. Patients classified low risk using ABC score had lower mortality than those classified low risk with AIMS65 (threshold ≤1) (1.0 vs 4.5%; p<0.001). In LGIB, patients with low, medium and high ABC scores had in-hospital mortality rates of 0.6%, 6.3% and 18%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to previous scores, ABC score has good performance for predicting mortality in both UGIB and LGIB, allowing early identification and targeted management of patients at high or low risk of death.

Medical care setting is associated with survival in acute upper gastro-intestinal bleeding: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on the effect of the medical care setting on survival in patients admitted with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. AIMS: To identify the organisational and care setting which provides the optimal survival in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS: A retrospective observational study of administrative data from a cohort of patients admitted to a Regional or Local hospital, and cared for in a gastroenterology or general ward. PRIMARY OUTCOME: 30 day survival for non-variceal bleeding and 42 day survival for variceal bleeding. RESULTS: Out of 3368 patients, the source of bleeding was non-variceal in 2980 (88.5%). Survival, adjusted for clinical and organisational factors, was higher in patients admitted to a gastroenterology ward vs other wards (OR = 2.02 p < 0.0006). Management in a gastroenterology ward in a Regional hospital provided a higher survival rate (95.6% ±â€¯0.08) vs a non-gastroenterology ward in a Local hospital (92.9% ±â€¯0.05 p < 0.01) or a non-gastroenterology ward in a Regional hospital (89.5% ±â€¯0.01 p < 0.0001). Survival (94.0% ±â€¯1.6) in a Local hospital with a gastroenterology ward was significantly higher than in a Regional hospital without (89.5% ±â€¯1.1) p < 0.01. CONCLUSION: Survival was optimal for patients treated in a gastroenterology ward independently of Regional or Local hospital setting.

Validation of a Machine Learning Model That Outperforms Clinical Risk Scoring Systems for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scoring systems are suboptimal for determining risk in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB); these might be improved by a machine learning model. We used machine learning to develop a model to calculate the risk of hospital-based intervention or death in patients with UGIB and compared its performance with other scoring systems. METHODS: We analyzed data collected from consecutive unselected patients with UGIB from medical centers in 4 countries (the United States, Scotland, England, and Denmark; n = 1958) from March 2014 through March 2015. We used the data to derive and internally validate a gradient-boosting machine learning model to identify patients who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention (transfusion or hemostatic intervention) or death within 30 days. We compared the performance of the machine learning prediction model with validated pre-endoscopic clinical risk scoring systems (the Glasgow-Blatchford score [GBS], admission Rockall score, and AIMS65). We externally validated the machine learning model using data from 2 Asia-Pacific sites (Singapore and New Zealand; n = 399). Performance was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: The machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.91 in the internal validation set; the clinical scoring systems identified patients who met the composite endpoint with AUC values of 0.88 for the GBS (P = .001), 0.73 for Rockall score (P < .001), and 0.78 for AIMS65 score (P < .001). In the external validation cohort, the machine learning model identified patients who met the composite endpoint with an AUC of 0.90, the GBS with an AUC of 0.87 (P = .004), the Rockall score with an AUC of 0.66 (P < .001), and the AIMS65 with an AUC of 0.64 (P < .001). At cutoff scores at which the machine learning model and GBS identified patients who met the composite endpoint with 100% sensitivity, the specificity values were 26% with the machine learning model versus 12% with GBS (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning model that identifies patients with UGIB who met a composite endpoint of hospital-based intervention or death within 30 days with a greater AUC and higher levels of specificity, at 100% sensitivity, than validated clinical risk scoring systems. This model could increase identification of low-risk patients who can be safely discharged from the emergency department for outpatient management.

The Shock Index is not accurate at predicting outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) remains a major cause of hospital admission worldwide. The recent UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death (NCEPOD) report on severe gastrointestinal bleeding used the Shock Index to assess bleeding severity and found an association between Shock Index and mortality. However, this has never been prospectively validated as a predictor of outcome in UGIB. AIMS: To compare the Shock Index with existing pre-endoscopic UGIB risk scores in predicting outcomes after UGIB METHODS: In an international, prospective study of 3012 consecutive patients with UGIB, we compared the Shock Index with existing scores including the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), admission Rockall score, AIMS65, and the newly described "ABC" score. Pre-determined endpoints were need for major (≥4 units red cells) transfusion, need for endoscopic therapy and 30-day mortality. RESULTS: The Shock Index was inferior to the GBS in predicting need for major transfusion (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUROC] 0.655 vs 0.836, P < 0.001) and need for endotherapy (AUROC 0.606 vs 0.747, P < 0.001). The Shock Index was inferior to all other scores for 30-day mortality: for example, AUROC 0.611 vs 0.863 for ABC score (P < 0.001). Adding the Shock Index to the ABC score did not improve accuracy of the ABC score in predicting mortality (AUROC 0.864 vs 0.863, P = 0.95). CONCLUSION: The Shock Index performed poorly with AUROCs <0.66 and was inferior to existing pre-endoscopy scores at predicting major clinical endpoints after UGIB. We found no clear evidence that the Shock Index is clinically useful at predicting outcomes in UGIB. [Correction added on 20 December 2019, after first online publication: Summary section has been changed for clarification.].

MAP(ASH): A new scoring system for the prediction of intervention and mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Risk stratification for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is recommended. However, scoring system accuracy is suboptimal, and score calculation can be complex. Our aim was to develop a new score, the MAP(ASH) score, with information available in the emergency room and to validate it. METHODS: The score was built from a prospective database of patients with UGIB and validated in an international database of 3012 patients from six hospitals. Outcomes were 30-day mortality, endoscopic intervention, any intervention (red blood transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or death), and rebleeding. Accuracy to predict outcomes was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: Five hundred forty-seven patients were included in the development cohort. Impaired mental status, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, pulse > 100, American Society of Anesthesiologists score > 2, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, and hemoglobin < 10 g/dL were included in the score. The model had a good predictive accuracy for intervention (AUROC = 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.88) and fair for mortality (AUROC = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.68-0.81). Regarding endoscopic intervention, AUROC was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.56-0.66) in the original cohort and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.66-0.71) in the validation cohort, showing a poor performance, similar to other scores. For rebleeding, the MAP(ASH) (AUROC 0.73; 95% CI: 0.69-0.77) was similar to Glasgow Blatchford score (AUROC = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67-0.76) but superior to AIMS65 (AUROC = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.59-0.68). CONCLUSION: MAP(ASH) is a simple pre-endoscopy risk score to predict intervention after UGIB, with fair discrimination at predicting mortality. Because of its applicability, it could be an option in clinical practice.

Unchanged mortality in patients with acute cholangitis despite an increase in malignant etiologies - a 25-year epidemiological study.

Background and aims: Acute cholangitis (AC) is a rare but serious condition, with an incidence of 7.0 per 10,000 people and mortality rates up to 10%. The aim of this study was to describe changes in obstruction etiology, comorbidities, clinical factors, and mortality among AC patients during a 25-year period. Methods: Using a database of 11,563 consecutive ERCP-procedures performed from 1990-2015 at Odense University Hospital, we identified all AC cases during that period. Clinical and epidemiological data were collected from the database and the Danish Patient Registry. Association with 30-day mortality was investigated using multiple logistic regression analysis with adjustment for confounding factors. Results: In total, 775 consecutive and individual cases of AC were included. Among cases, 42% (n = 326) were of malignant etiology, with an increasing incidence over time (regression coefficient [95% CI]: 0.03 [0.01-0.04] per year; p = .01). Mean Charlson Comorbidity Index was 1.4, with an increase over time (regression coefficient [95% CI]: 0.04 [0.03-0.05] per year; p < .01). Malignant obstruction etiology was associated with 30-day mortality (OR [95% CI]: 1.11 [1.04-1.18]; p < .01). Overall 30-day mortality was 12% (n = 91). After adjustment for confounding factors, no significant changes in 30-day mortality were observed over time (OR [95% CI]: 1 [1-1.00]; p = .91 per year). Conclusion: Significant increases in the incidence of malignant obstruction etiology and severity of comorbidities among AC patients were observed during the study period. Despite those findings, 30-day mortality remained unchanged, potentially reflecting a general improvement in the management of AC.

Previous Use of Antithrombotic Agents Reduces Mortality and Length of Hospital Stay in Patients With High-risk Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-thrombotic agents are risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). However, few studies have evaluated their effects on patient outcomes. We assessed the effects of anti-thrombotic agents on outcomes of patients with high-risk UGIB. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 619 patients with acute UGIB (defined by hematemesis, coffee-ground vomit or melena) who required intervention and underwent endoscopy at 8 centers in North America, Asia, and Europe, from March 2014 through March 2015. We collected data recorded on use of anti-thrombotic agents, clinical features, and laboratory test results to calculate AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, and full Rockall scores. We also collected and analyzed data on co-morbidities, endoscopic findings, blood transfusion, interventional radiology results, surgeries, length of hospital stay, rebleeding, and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 619 patients who required endoscopic therapy, data on use of anti-thrombotic agents was available for 568; 253 of these patients (44%) used anti-thrombotic agents. Compared to patients not taking anti-thrombotic agents, patients treated with anti-thrombotics were older (P < .001), had a higher mean American Society of Anesthesiologists classification score (P < .0001), had a higher mean Rockall score (P < .0001), a higher mean AIMS65 score (P < .0001), and more frequently bled from ulcers (P < .001). There were no differences between groups in sex, systolic blood pressure, level of hemoglobin at hospital admission, frequency of malignancies, Glasgow-Blatchford Score, need for surgery or interventional radiology, number of rebleeding events, or requirement for transfusion. All-cause mortality was lower in patients who took anti-thrombotic drugs (11 deaths, 4%) than in patients who did not (37 deaths, 12%) (P = .002); this was due to lower bleeding-related mortality in patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs (3 deaths, 1%) than in patients who were not (19 deaths, 6%) (P = .003). Patients taking anti-thrombotic drugs had mean hospital stays of 6.9 days (95% CI, 2-23 days) compared to 7.9 days for non-users of anti-thrombotic agents (95% CI, 2-26 days) (P = .04). CONCLUSIONS: Despite being older, with higher American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, AIMS65, and Rockall scores, patients who have UGIB that requires endoscopic therapy and take anti-thrombotic drugs have lower mortality due to GI bleeding and shorter hospital stays, with similar rates of rebleeding, surgery, and transfusions, compared with those not taking anti-thrombotic drugs.