Social isolation from childhood to mid-adulthood: is there an association with older brain age?

BACKGROUND: Older brain age - as estimated from structural MRI data - is known to be associated with detrimental mental and physical health outcomes in older adults. Social isolation, which has similar detrimental effects on health, may be associated with accelerated brain aging though little is known about how different trajectories of social isolation across the life course moderate this association. We examined the associations between social isolation trajectories from age 5 to age 38 and brain age assessed at age 45. METHODS: We previously created a typology of social isolation based on onset during the life course and persistence into adulthood, using group-based trajectory analysis of longitudinal data from a New Zealand birth cohort. The typology comprises four groups: 'never-isolated', 'adult-only', 'child-only', and persistent 'child-adult' isolation. A brain age gap estimate (brainAGE) - the difference between predicted age from structural MRI date and chronological age - was derived at age 45. We undertook analyses of brainAGE with trajectory group as the predictor, adjusting for sex, family socio-economic status, and a range of familial and child-behavioral factors. RESULTS: Older brain age in mid-adulthood was associated with trajectories of social isolation after adjustment for family and child confounders, particularly for the 'adult-only' group compared to the 'never-isolated' group. CONCLUSIONS: Although our findings are associational, they indicate that preventing social isolation, particularly in mid-adulthood, may help to avert accelerated brain aging associated with negative health outcomes later in life.

Anthropause appreciation, biophilia, and ecophilosophical contemplations amidst a global pandemic.

In 2020, COVID-19 mitigation measures, including lockdowns and travel bans to curtail disease transmission, inadvertently led to an "Anthropause" - a unique global pause to anthropogenic activities. While there was a spike in ecological studies measuring Anthropause effects on environmental indicators, people's experiences of the Anthropause or its potential to inspire change were hardly considered. Hence, we aimed to measure people's appreciation of the environmental outcomes of the Anthropause, ecophilosophical contemplations about the pandemic, and experiences of lockdown-triggered biophilia (human's innate love for and draw towards nature) and test the hypothesis that these experiences would be consistently more prominent among the already environmentally inclined. To that end, we developed and tested three measures on a representative sample of 993 New Zealanders. Anthropause Appreciation received the highest overall mean ratings, followed by Lockdown-Biophilia and Eco-Contemplation. Pre-existing pro-environmental dispositions and behaviours did not consistently influence our three measures as expected. Demographic variables had little influence, while experiences of financial and mental health impacts due to COVID-19 had no influence. We interpreted the limited influence of explanatory variables as indicative of a degree of uniformity in people's experiences. High appreciation of Anthropause benefits suggests that the public may be supportive of policies and ways of living that can lead to similar outcomes post-pandemic - offering environmental policymakers and communicators a basis for action. Ecophilosophical contemplations and biophilic draw among the public suggest an awareness of the significance of the human-nature relationship - offering a symbolic global keystone for communicating and advocating conservation and the many values of pauses in life to connect with nature. Building women's environmental leadership capabilities and the ongoing greening of Christianity may be essential steps for global post-pandemic environmental behaviour transformations.

Are trajectories of social isolation from childhood to mid-adulthood associated with adult depression or suicide outcomes.

PURPOSE: Social isolation has been shown to have negative effects on mental health outcomes though little is known about trajectories across the life course. We examined the relationship between trajectory groups and selected mental health outcomes in mid-adulthood. METHODS: We previously created a typology of social isolation based on onset during the life course and persistence into adulthood, using group-based trajectory analysis of longitudinal data from a New Zealand birth cohort. The typology comprises four groups: 'never-isolated', 'adult-only', 'child-only', and 'persistent (child-adult) isolation'. We undertook logistic regression analyses of three mental health outcomes with trajectory group as the predictor, adjusting for sex and a range of familial and child-behavioural factors. RESULTS: Lifetime suicide attempt, and depression and suicide ideation in mid-adulthood were each associated with adult-only but not child-only social isolation. Depression in mid-adulthood was also associated with persistent child-adult social isolation. CONCLUSION: Although our findings are associational and not causal, they indicate that interrupting persistent social isolation may help to prevent adult depression whereas halting adult social isolation may ameliorate both depression and suicide outcomes.

Prevalence of Loneliness and Its Association With General and Health-Related Measures of Subjective Well-Being in a Longitudinal Bicultural Cohort of Older Adults in Advanced Age Living in New Zealand: LiLACS NZ.

OBJECTIVES: There is evidence that loneliness is detrimental to the subjective well-being of older adults. However, little is known on this topic for the cohort of those in advanced age (80 years or older), which today is the fastest-growing age group in the New Zealand population. We examined the relationships between loneliness and selected subjective well-being outcomes over 5 years. METHODS: We used a regional, bicultural sample of those in advanced age from 2010 to 2015 (Life and Living in Advanced Age: a Cohort Study in New Zealand). The first wave enrolled 937 people (92% of whom were living in the community): 421 Maori (Indigenous New Zealanders aged 80-90 years) and 516 non-Maori aged 85 years. We applied standard regression techniques to baseline data and mixed-effects models to longitudinal data, while adjusting for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: For both Maori and non-Maori, strong negative associations between loneliness and subjective well-being were found at baseline. In longitudinal analyses, we found that loneliness was negatively associated with life satisfaction as well as with mental health-related quality of life. DISCUSSION: Our findings of adverse impacts on subjective well-being corroborate other evidence, highlighting loneliness as a prime candidate for intervention-appropriate to cultural context-to improve well-being for adults in advanced age.

Social attitudes and activities associated with loneliness: Findings from a New Zealand national survey of the adult population.

There has been growing recognition of the harmful consequences of loneliness for health and well-being, and the need for community intervention, particularly in times of global crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic with its imperatives of distancing, isolation, and quarantine. Social capital and a sense of social cohesion are known to have roles in buffering against the effects of adverse life circumstances. Our study sought to investigate the association of a range of social attitudes and activities - as proxies for social capital - with loneliness while taking into account socio-demographic factors. We undertook a national survey on a stratified random sample of the New Zealand (NZ) adult population aged 18+ in 2017 (n = 1,358), data from which included the requisite variables. The prevalence of loneliness was highest in young adults (18-30), falling with age until a slight rise in older people (76+). Loneliness was associated with socio-demographic factors, being more prevalent in the more disadvantaged groups: the deprived, Maori (the indigenous people of NZ), the non-partnered, and the less educated. Controlling for these socio-demographic factors, pro-social attitudes (that is towards political efficacy, trust in others, not feeling exploited, or being committed to family) and participation in social activities (that is being employed or being involved in recreation groups) - were protective against loneliness. Our study supports asset-based approaches to tackling loneliness - with implications for health and social care - that emphasise mobilising existing social resources, building social capital, and raising social cohesion in our communities. Such intervention on loneliness would help to prevent and ameliorate its detrimental consequences for public health.

Do socially isolated children become socially isolated adults?

Social isolation - the lack of social contacts in number and frequency - has been shown to have a negative impact on health and well-being. Using group-based trajectory analysis of longitudinal data from a New Zealand birth cohort, we created a typology of social isolation based on onset during the life course and persistence into adulthood. We then characterized each type according to risk factors related to family environment and child behavior that have been shown previously to be associated with social isolation. Based on fit statistics and distinctness of trajectories we considered the four-class model to be the most appropriate: (1) 'never isolated' (71.6 % of the cohort), (2) 'adult only' (10.1 %), (3) 'child only' (14.3 %), and (4) 'persistent isolation' (4.0 %). Family-environmental factors - i.e. having a teen-aged mother, having a single parent, frequent changes in residence, or maltreatment - tended to be associated with both child and adult onset and persistence of social isolation, whereas child-behavioral factors - i.e. self-control or internalizing symptoms - applied more to the child onset of social isolation. Sensitivity analyses using empirically defined groups - based on 15 % 'cut-offs' for isolation in childhood and adulthood - produced similar life-course groupings and similar associations. Our findings provide insights into the development of social isolation and demonstrate the changeability of social isolation across almost four decades of the life span. They also suggest family-based and child-based interventions could address child onset and the persistence of social isolation into adulthood.

Scoping Review: Intergenerational Resource Transfer and Possible Enabling Factors.

We explore the intergenerational pattern of resource transfer and possible associated factors. A scoping review was conducted of quantitative, peer-reviewed, English-language studies related to intergenerational transfer or interaction. We searched AgeLine, PsycINFO, Social Work Abstracts, and Sociological Abstracts for articles published between Jane 2008 and December 2018. Seventy-five studies from 25 countries met the inclusion criteria. The scoping review categorised resource transfers into three types: financial, instrumental, and emotional support. Using an intergenerational solidarity framework, factors associated with intergenerational transfer were placed in four categories: (1) demographic factors (e.g., age, gender, marital status, education, and ethno-cultural background); (2) needs and opportunities factors, including health, financial resources, and employment status; (3) family structures, namely, family composition, family relationship, and earlier family events; and (4) cultural-contextual structures, including state policies and social norms. Those factors were connected to the direction of resource transfer between generations. Downward transfers from senior to junior generations occur more frequently than upward transfers in many developed countries. Women dominate instrumental transfers, perhaps influenced by traditional gender roles. Overall, the pattern of resource transfer between generations is shown, and the impact of social norms and social policy on intergenerational transfers is highlighted. Policymakers should recognise the complicated interplay of each factor with different cultural contexts. The findings could inform policies that strengthen intergenerational solidarity and support.

Microsimulation model of child and adolescent overweight: making use of what we already know.

BACKGROUND: New Zealand has high rates of child overweight and obesity when compared with other countries. Despite an abundance of research documenting the problem, it is unclear what the most effective policy changes or interventions are, and how policy changes might unfold over time within complex systems. METHODS: We use estimates derived from meta-analyses to create a dynamic microsimulation model of child overweight (including obesity). Using census records we created a synthetic birth cohort of 10,000 children. Information on parental education, ethnicity and father's socio-economic position at birth were taken from census records. We used the New Zealand Health Survey to estimate population base rates for the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Information on other modifiers (such as maternal smoking, breastfeeding, preterm birth, regular breakfast consumption and so forth) were taken from three birth cohorts: Christchurch Health and Development Study, The Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study and the Pacific Islands Families Study. Published intervention studies were used to derive plausible estimates for changes to modifiers. RESULTS: Reducing the proportion of mothers classified as overweight and obesity (-3.31(95% CI -3.55; -3.07) percentage points), reducing the proportion of children watching two or more hours of TV (-3.78(95% CI -4.01; -3.54)), increasing the proportion of children eating breakfast regularly (-1.71(95% CI -1.96; -1.46)), and reducing the proportion of children born with high birth weights (-1.36(95% CI -1.61; -1.11)), lead to sizable decreases in the estimated prevalence of child overweight (including obesity). Reducing the proportion of mothers giving birth by caesarean (-0.23(95% CI -0.49; -0.23)) and increasing parental education (-0.07(95% CI -0.31; 0.18)) did not impact upon child overweight rates. CONCLUSIONS: We created a working simulation model of New Zealand children that can be accessed by policy makers and researchers to determine known relationships between predictors and child overweight, as well as potential gains from targeting specific pathways.

Morbidity from intentional self-harm among Pacific peoples in New Zealand 1996-2015.

AIM: The aim of this study was to describe trends in intentional self-harm for Pacific peoples in New Zealand by reviewing official data over the period 1996-2015. METHOD: Publicly funded hospitalisations where the external cause was intentional self-harm were examined and areas of interest were identified and are presented. RESULTS: Over a 19-year period (1996-2015), there were 1,608 intentional self-harm events for Pacific peoples (2.8%) out of 58,643 intentional self-harm events nationally for New Zealand's total population. CONCLUSION: This study has been able to delineate Pacific ethnic-specific information not previously available for a prolonged period of 19 years. There are differences in Pacific peoples' experiences between ethnic groups. Furthermore, disparities persist between Pacific and non-Pacific. This study exposes priority areas for more targeted interventions according to ethnic, socioeconomic status, gender and age variations.

Suicide mortality among Pacific peoples in New Zealand, 1996-2013.

AIM: The aim of this study was to describe trends in suicide mortality for Pacific peoples in New Zealand by reviewing official data over the period 1996-2013. METHOD: Death registrations where the underlying causes of death were intentional self-harm was examined and area of interest was identified and presented. RESULTS: Over a 17-year period (1996-2013), there were 380 total Pacific suicides (4.1%) out of 9,307 suicides nationally for New Zealand's total population. CONCLUSION: Priority areas for effective suicide prevention include: Pacific young males, Pacific ethnic foci, clear ethnic disparities and inequalities for Pacific suicide mortality when compared to New Zealand's total population; safe, ethical and culturally appropriate messaging around suicide methods; the importance of the role of mental health and addictions in suicide prevention. On average, there are at least 22 Pacific suicides annually in New Zealand. Irrespective of small numbers, further Pacific ethnic breakdown is needed other than Samoan, Cook Islands and Tongan, as this is problematic for suicide prevention efforts for the exclusion of other Pacific groups.

Changing the balance of social care for older people: simulating scenarios under demographic ageing in New Zealand.

The demographic ageing of New Zealand society, as elsewhere in the developed world, has dramatically increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over) in the population. This has major policy implications for the future organisation of social care. Our objective was to test the effects on social care use, first, of putative changes in the overall disability profile of older people, and second, of alterations to the balance of their care, i.e. whether it was community-based or residential. In order to undertake these experiments, we developed a microsimulation model of the later life course using individual-level data from two official national survey series on health and disability, respectively, to generate a synthetic version which replicated original data and parameter settings. A baseline projection under current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed moderate increases in disability and associated social care use. Artificially decreasing disability levels, below the baseline projection, only moderately reduced the use of community care (both informal and formal). Scenarios implemented by rebalancing towards informal care use moderately reduced formal care use. However, only moderate compensatory increases in community-based care were required to markedly decrease the transition to residential care. The disability impact of demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in developed countries like New Zealand. As well as healthy ageing, changing the balance of social care may alleviate the impact of increasing demand due to an expanding population of older people.

Rebalancing health service use for older people: simulating policy-relevant scenarios under demographic ageing.

AIMS: The demographic ageing of New Zealand society has greatly increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over), with major policy implications. We tested the effects on health service use of alterations to morbidity profile and the balance of care. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model using data from an official national health survey series to generate a synthetic replicate for scenario testing. RESULTS: Projections on current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed increases in morbidity-long-term illness (2%)-and in health service use-doctor visits (21%), public hospital admissions (16%). Scenarios with decreasing morbidity levels showed moderate reductions in health service use. By contrast, rebalancing towards the use of practice nurses showed a large decrease in public hospital admissions for people aged 85 years and over. CONCLUSION: Demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in New Zealand and other developed countries. Rebalancing between modalities of care may soften the impact of increasing health service use required by a larger older population.

Primary health care access and ambulatory sensitive hospitalizations in New Zealand.

Ambulatory sensitive hospitalizations (ASH) are those thought to be preventable by timely and effective primary health care. Better access to primary health care has been associated with lower ASH rates. Funding increases to primary health care in New Zealand beginning in 2001 led to an improvement in access. Analysis of hospitalizations to all New Zealand public hospitals revealed that, for most age groups, ASH rates did not show long-term reductions from 2001 to 2009, while socioeconomic differences in ASH rates widened across this period. We conclude that increasing funding and access to primary health care will not, by itself, reduce ASH rates.

Determinants and disparities: a simulation approach to the case of child health care.

Though there is much agreement on the importance of the social determinants of health, debate continues on suitable empirically-based models to underpin efforts to tackle health and health care disparities. We demonstrate an approach that uses a dynamic micro-simulation model of the early life course, based on longitudinal data from a New Zealand cohort of children born in 1977, and counterfactual reasoning applied to a range of outcomes. The focus is on health service use with a comparison to outcomes in non-health domains, namely educational attainment and antisocial behaviour. We show an application of the model to test scenarios based on modifying key determinants and assessing the impact on putative outcomes. We found that appreciable improvement was only effected by modifying multiple determinants; structural determinants were relatively more important than intermediary ones as potential policy levers; there was a social gradient of effect; and interventions bestowed the greatest benefit to the most disadvantaged groups with a corresponding reduction in disparities between the worst-off and the best-off. Our findings provide evidence on how public policy initiatives might be more effective acting broadly across sectors and across social groups, and thus make a real difference to the most disadvantaged.

Can patient safety indicators monitor medical and surgical care at New Zealand public hospitals?

INTRODUCTION: Increasing interest has focused on the safety of hospital care. The AusPSIs are a set of indicators developed from Australian administrative data to reliably identify inpatient adverse events in hospitals. The main aim of this study was to explore the application of the AHRQ/AusPSIs to New Zealand administrative hospital data related to medical and surgical care. Variation over time and across hospitals were also considered for a subset of the more common indicators. METHOD: AHRQ/AusPSIs were adapted for use with New Zealand National Minimum Dataset administrative data for the period 2001-9. Crude positive event rates for each of the 16 indicators were assessed across New Zealand public hospitals. Variation over time for six more common indicators is presented using statistical control charts. Variation between hospitals was explored using rates adjusted for differences in patient variables including age, sex, ethnicity, rurality of residence, NZDep score and comorbidities. RESULTS: The AHRQ/AusPSIs were applied to New Zealand administrative hospital data and some 99,366 admissions were associated with a positive indicator event. However rates for some indicators were low (<1% of denominator admissions). Over the study period considerable variation in the rate of positive events was evident for the six most common indicators. Likewise there was substantial variation between hospitals in relation to risk adjusted positive event rates DISCUSSION: Patient safety indicators can be applied to New Zealand administrative hospital data. While infrequent rates hinder the use of some of the indicators, several could now be readily employed as warning flags to help monitor rates of adverse events at particular hospitals. In conjunction with other established or emerging tools, such as audit and trigger tools, the PSIs are now available to promote ongoing quality improvement activities in New Zealand hospitals.

Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E3). Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions.

There are well-established frameworks for comparing the performance of health systems cross-nationally on multiple dimensions. A sub-set of such comprehensive schema is taken up by criteria specifically applied to health service delivery, including hospital performance. We focus on evaluating hospital performance, using the New Zealand public hospital sector over the period 2001-2009 as a pragmatic and illustrative case study for cross-national application. We apply a broad three-dimensional matrix--efficiency, effectiveness, equity--each based on two measures, and we undertake ranking comparisons of 35 hospitals. On the efficiency dimension--relative stay, day surgery--we find coefficients of variation of 10.8% and 8.5% respectively in the pooled data, and a slight trend towards a narrowing of inter-hospital variation over time. The correlation between these indicators is low (.20). For effectiveness--post-admission mortality, unplanned readmission--the coefficient of variation is generally higher (24.1% and 12.2%), and the trend is flat. The correlation is again low (.21). The equity dimension is assessed by quantifying the degree of ethnic and socio-economic variation for each hospital. The coefficient of variation is much higher--40.7-66.5% for ethnicity, 55.8-84.4% for socio-economic position--the trend over time is mixed, and the correlation is moderate (.41). On averaging the rank of hospitals across all measures it is evident that there is limited consistency across the three constituent dimensions. While it is possible to assess hospital performance across three dimensions using an illustrative set of standard measures derived from routine data, there appears to be little consistency in hospital rankings on these New Zealand data for the period 2001-2009. However, the methodology of using rankings derived from readily available data--possibly allied with multiple or composite indicator models--has potential for the cross-national comparison of hospital profiles, and assessments in three dimensions provide a more holistic and rounded account of performance.

Patterns of family doctor decision making in practice context. What are the implications for medical practice variation and social disparities?

Medical practice variation and social disparities in health are pervasive features of health care systems. But what impact might everyday clinical decision making have in shaping such aggregate patterns, and could this in turn be influenced by the immediate environment in which family doctors practise? We investigate this by studying inter-practitioner variation in clinical activity across four payment types in New Zealand, a "gatekeeper" primary care system. We do this for four measures of clinical activity by patient ethnic and socio-economic status in a 2001/2002 representative sample of 9272 encounters at 185 family practices. Initial analysis showed little variation in clinical activity either by patient status or by practice type. However, with the application of multi-level statistical techniques it was evident that, while there was still little systematic difference in practitioner activity rates by patient status, inter-practitioner variation was greater for patients of ethnic minority background and from socio-economically deprived areas. Furthermore, this variability was particularly marked in fee-for-service practice settings. Thus, to the extent that family doctor decision-making behaviour within practice context helps shape aggregate patterns of medical practice variation and social disparity, treatment differences are likely associated not with the level of service but with its variability.

Residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand 1988-2008: do real trends over time match predictions?

BACKGROUND: in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 7.7% of those aged over 65 years lived in licenced residential aged care. Age-specific rates approximately doubled for each 5-year age group after the age of 65 years. Even with changes in policies and market forces since 1988, population increases are forecast to drive large growth in demand. This study shows previously unrecognised 20-year trends in rates of care in a geographically defined population. METHODS: four cross-sectional surveys of all facilities (rest homes and hospitals) licenced for long-term care of older people were conducted in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2008. Facility staff completed survey forms for each resident. Numbers of licenced and occupied beds and trends in age-specific and age-standardised rates in residential aged care are reported. RESULTS: over the 20-year period, Auckland's population aged over 65 years increased by 43% (from 91,000 to 130,000) but actual numbers in care reduced slightly. Among those aged over 65 years, the proportion living in care facilities reduced from 1 in 13 to 1 in 18. Age-standardised rates in rest-home level care reduced from 65 to 33 per thousand, and in hospital level care, from 29 to 23 per thousand. Had rates remained stable, over 13,200 people, 74% more than observed, would have been in care in 2008. CONCLUSION: growth predicted in the residential aged care sector is not yet evident. The introduction of standardised needs assessments before entry, increased availability of home-based services, and growth in retirement villages may have led to reduced utilisation.

Twenty-year trends in dependency in residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand: a descriptive study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in aged care residents' dependency over a 20-year period. DESIGN: All residents in 1988, 1993, 1998, and 2008 were assessed using the same 23-item functional ability survey. SETTING: Residential aged care facilities in Auckland, New Zealand. PARTICIPANTS: In 1988 there were 7516 participants (99% response rate), 6972 in 1993 (85% response rate), 5056 in 1998 (65% response rate), and 6828 in 2008 (89% response rate). Data were weighted to accommodate variation in response. MEASUREMENTS: A composite dependency score with 5 ordinal levels was derived from a census-type survey reporting mobility, activities of daily living ability, continence, and cognitive function. RESULTS: The proportion of "apparently independent" residents decreased from 18% in 1988 to 9% in 1993, 5% in 1998, and 4% in 2008, whereas those "highly dependent" increased from 16% in 1988, to 18% in 1993, 19% in 1998, to 21% in 2008. All functional indicators demonstrated increased dependency over the 20-year period (P < .0001). However, between 1998 and 2008 there were significant increases in dependency for continence, mobility, self-care, and orientation, but no significant changes in memory and behavior. CONCLUSION: The increased dependency over 20 years directly affects care requirements for this population.

Using micro-simulation to create a synthesised data set and test policy options: the case of health service effects under demographic ageing.

OBJECTIVES: To assess micro-simulation for testing policy options under demographic ageing. METHODS: Individual-level data were drawn from the New Zealand Health Survey (1996/7 and 2002/3), a national survey of ambulatory care in New Zealand (2001/2), and the Australian National Health Survey (1995). Health service effects assessed were visits to the family doctor, and rates of prescribing and referral. We created a representative set of synthetic health histories by imputation and tested the health service effects of different policy scenarios. These were created by varying ageing and morbidity trajectories, degree of social support available, and intensity of practitioner behaviour. RESULTS: The set of synthetic health histories created by combining the data sources generated outcomes reasonably close to external benchmarks. Altering the age distribution of 2002 to approximate settings for 2021 produced no change in rates of visiting, prescribing, or referral for the 65-and-over population. Quantifying the health service effects of different scenarios showed no impact on visit rates by varying social support, but substantial differences for visits between high and low morbidity scenarios and for prescribing and referral rates according to practitioner behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: There is potential for micro-simulation to assist in the synthesis of data and to help quantify scenario options for policy development.