Integrating simulation models and statistical models using causal modelling principles to predict aquatic macroinvertebrate responses to climate change.

Climate change is projected to threaten ecological communities through changes in temperature, rainfall, runoff patterns, and mediated changes in other environmental variables. Their combined effects are difficult to comprehend without the mathematical machinery of causal modelling. Using piecewise structural equation modelling, we aim to predict the responses of aquatic macroinvertebrate total abundance and richness to disturbances generated by climate change. Our approach involves integrating an existing hydroclimate-salinity model for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, into our recently developed statistical models for macroinvertebrates using long-term monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, climate, and hydrology, spanning 2,300 km of the Murray River. Our exercise demonstrates the potential of causal modelling for integrating data and models from different sources. As such, optimal use of valuable existing data and merits of previously developed models in the field can be made for exploring the effects of future climate change and management interventions.

Public's perceptions of marine bioinvasive risks and responsible parties - Implications for social acceptability and better-informed communication in the marine biosecurity context.

Using the survey data on a representative sample of the New Zealand population, our study presents a process of understanding citizens' perceptions, identifying patterns in the perceptions, and recognising the knowledge gaps existing in the citizenry in the marine biosecurity context. While our findings show a healthy sign of the public accepting their own responsibility and the devolved responsibility of business/industry, there are considerable gaps between the general public's perceptions and (marine) biosecurity current practices and expectations. There is a moderately strong signal from survey respondents that suggest the need of significantly more effort and improved transparency in marine biosecurity communication. Our outcomes indicate an anthropocentric tendency, with influences of gender, age, education, income, frequency of beach visitation upon societal perceptions in terms of awareness, concern, perceived non-indigenous marine species impacts, and accountability in marine biosecurity management. The recognised socio-demographic patterns in societal perceptions would inform marine biosecurity communication strategies.

Insight into the multi-decadal effects of floods on aquatic macroinvertebrate community structure in the Murray River using distributed lag nonlinear models and counterfactual analysis.

We describe the multi-decadal delayed effects of flood on macroinvertebrate community structure using 33 years of monitoring data on macroinvertebrates, water quality, and climate, and 51 years of hydrological data, spanning 2300 km of the Murray River, Australia. We used distributed lag nonlinear models in a four-step analytical process, including 1) modelling macroinvertebrate community structure, represented as a set of principle coordinate axes, as a function of a lagged hydrologic index and other environmental variables using distance-based redundancy analysis 2) visualizing the patterns of delayed effects of flows on the PCO axes, 3) modelling the abundances of groups of taxa along individual PCO axes, and 4) combining the two sets of models in a counterfactual analysis to predict the community structure under flood and no-flood scenarios to describe the multi-decadal trajectory of the community following a flood. Our findings show an increase in abundance of most taxa of filtering-gathering collectors, scrapers, and shredders in the long term that implicates an influx of organic matter of all sizes, from particulate organic matter to coarse and large woody debris, that serves directly or indirectly as a food resource and/or habitat. Our approach enabled the isolation of a flood impact from the confounding effects of other flow events and environmental variables, overcoming a substantial challenge in ecohydrological studies.