A machine learning model to predict liver-related outcomes after the functional cure of chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and hepatic decompensation persists after hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroclearance. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict the risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) following HBsAg seroclearance. METHODS: A total of 4,787 consecutive patients who achieved HBsAg seroclearance between 2000 and 2022 were enrolled from 6 centers in South Korea and a territory-wide database in Hong Kong, comprising the training (n=944), internal validation (n=1,102), and external validation (n=2,741) cohorts. Three machine learning-based models were developed and compared in each cohort. The primary outcome was the development of any LRO, including HCC, decompensation, and liver-related death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 55.2 (interquartile range=30.1-92.3) months, 123 LROs were confirmed (1.1%/person-year) in the Korean cohort. A model with the best predictive performance in the training cohort was selected as the final model (designated as PLAN-B-CURE), which was constructed using a gradient boosting algorithm and 7 variables (age, sex, diabetes, alcohol consumption, cirrhosis, albumin, and platelet count). Compared to previous HCC prediction models, PLAN-B-CURE showed significantly superior accuracy in the training cohort (c-index: 0.82 vs. 0.63-0.70, all P<0.001; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.86 vs. 0.62-0.72, all P<0.01; area under the precision-recall curve: 0.53 vs. 0.13-0.29, all P<0.01). PLAN-B-CURE showed a reliable calibration function (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P>0.05) and these results were reproduced in the internal and external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: This novel machine learning model consisting of 7 variables provides reliable risk prediction of LRO after HBsAg seroclearance that can be used for personalized surveillance.

Effects of Intermittent Calorie Restriction in Nondiabetic Patients With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We compared the effects of a 12-week intermittent calorie restriction (ICR) and standard-of-care (SOC) diet on liver fat content (LFC) in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease patients. METHODS: This randomized controlled trial included patients with magnetic resonance imaging-proton density fat fraction ≥8%. Patients were randomly assigned to the ICR (5:2 diet) or SOC (80% of the recommended calorie intake) groups and stratified according to the body mass index (≥25 or <25 kg/m2). The primary outcome was the proportion of patients who achieved a relative LFC reduction as measured by magnetic resonance imaging-proton density fat fraction ≥30%. RESULTS: Seventy-two participants underwent randomization (36 patients with and 36 without obesity), and 63 (34 patients with and 29 without obesity) completed the trial. At week 12, a higher proportion of patients in the ICR arm achieved a relative LFC reduction of ≥30% compared with the SOC arm (72.2% vs 44.4%; P = .033), which was more prominent in the group with obesity (61.1% vs 27.7%; P = .033) than in the group without obesity (83.3% vs 61.1%; P = .352). The relative weight reduction was insignificant between the ICR and SOC arms (-5.3% vs -4.2%; P = .273); however, it was higher in the ICR arm compared with the SOC arm (-5.5% vs -2.9%; P = .039) in the group with obesity. Changes in fibrosis, muscle and fat mass, and liver enzyme levels were similar between the 2 groups (all P > .05). CONCLUSIONS: The ICR diet reduced LFC more effectively than SOC in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease, particularly in patients with obesity. Additional studies are warranted in larger and more diverse cohorts. CLINICALTRIALS: gov, Number: NCT05309642.

Optimal cut-offs of transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography in diagnosing advanced liver fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/aims: Opinions differ regarding transient elastography and magnetic resonance elastography (TE/MRE) cut-offs for diagnosing advanced fibrosis (AF) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We investigated the diagnostic performance and optimal cut-off values of TE and MRE for diagnosing AF. Methods: Literature databases, including Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed, were used to identify relevant studies published up to June 13, 2023. We selected studies evaluating TE and MRE regarding the degree of liver fibrosis using liver biopsy as the reference. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUCs) of the pooled data for TE and MRE for each fibrosis stage and optimal cut-offs for AF were investigated. Results: A total of 19,199 patients from 63 studies using TE showed diagnostic AUC of 0.83(95% confidence interval: 0.80-0.86), 0.83(0.80-0.86), 0.87(0.84-0.90), and 0.94(0.91-0.96) for ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 stages, respectively. Similarly, 1,484 patients from 14 studies using MRE showed diagnostic AUC of 0.89(0.86-0.92), 0.92(0.89-0.94), 0.89(0.86-0.92), and 0.94(0.91-0.96) for ≥F1, ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 stages respectively. The diagnostic AUC for AF using TE was highest at 0.90 with a cut-off of 7.1-7.9 kPa, and that of MRE was highest at 0.94 with a cut-off of 3.62-3.8 kPa. Conclusions: TE(7.1-7.9 kPa) and MRE(3.62-3.8 kPa) with the suggested cut-offs showed favorable accuracy for diagnosing AF in patients with NAFLD. This result will serve as a basis for clinical guidelines for non-invasive tests and differential diagnosis of AF.

Assessment of the postoperative prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma using transient elastography: A systemic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: This meta-analysis examined whether preoperative vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) can predict postoperative complications and recurrence in patients undergoing hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted using Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases. Out of 431 individual studies, thirteen published between 2008 and 2022 were included. Five studies focused on HCC recurrence, while eight examined postoperative complications. Results: The meta-analysis of five studies on HCC recurrence showed that the high-risk group with a high VCTE score had a significantly increased recurrence rate after hepatic resection (hazard ratio [HR], 2.14). The cutoff value of VCTE in the high-risk group of HCC recurrence was 7.4-13.4kPa, the sensitivity was 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.72), and the specificity was 0.60 (95% CI 0.46-0.72). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the liver stiffness measured by VCTE to predict the HCC recurrence was 0.63 (95% CI 0.59-0.67). The meta-analysis on the postoperative complications revealed a significantly increased risk of postoperative complications in the high-risk group (12-25.6kPa) with a high VCTE value (risk ratio [RR], 8.32). The AUC of the liver stiffness measured by VCTE to predict the postoperative complications was 0.87(95% CI 0.84-0.90), the sensitivity was 0.76 (95% CI 0.55-0.89) and the specificity was 0.85 (95% CI 0.73-0.92). Conclusions: This meta-analysis suggests that preoperative VCTE in patients undergoing hepatic resection for HCC is useful in identifying individuals at a high risk of postoperative complications and HCC recurrence.

Diagnostic Accuracy of Transient Elastography for Staging Liver Fibrosis in Autoimmune Liver Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background/Aims: The assessment of liver fibrosis is crucial for managing autoimmune liver diseases such as primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). However, data on the efficacy of noninvasive tests (NITs) for these diseases are limited. This meta-analysis evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) for staging fibrosis in patients with autoimmune liver disease. Methods: Searches were conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to assess the diagnostic accuracy of VCTE against histology as the reference standard in adult patients with autoimmune liver disease. The summary area under the curve (sAUC) and diagnostic odds ratio were calculated for significant fibrosis (SF), advanced fibrosis (AF), and cirrhosis, defined as METAVIR stages F≥2, F≥3, and F=4, respectively, according to liver biopsy. Results: Fourteen articles were included, comprising 559 PBC patients from six studies, 388 AIH patients from five studies, and 151 PSC patients from three studies. VCTE demonstrated good performance for fibrosis staging in PBC, AIH, and PSC. In PBC, sAUCs of VCTE were 0.87 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.94), 0.89 (0.85-0.94), and 0.99 (0.96-1.00) for staging SF, AF, and cirrhosis, respectively. In AIH, the sAUCs were 0.88 (0.84-0.92), 0.88 (0.83-0.93), and 0.92 (0.88-0.96), respectively, while in PSC, they were 0.88 (0.82-0.95), 0.95 (0.90-1.00), and 0.92 (0.84-0.99), respectively. The cutoff values for AF were 7.5-17.9 kPa in PBC, 8.18-12.1 kPa in AIH, and 9.6 kPa in PSC. Conclusions: VCTE shows high diagnostic accuracy for staging liver fibrosis in patients with autoimmune liver diseases such as PBC, AIH, and PSC. This non-invasive and reliable method serves as a valuable tool for the evaluation and monitoring of fibrosis in these lifelong diseases.

Non-invasive prediction of post-sustained virological response HCC in HCV: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Despite advances in antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) still develops even after sustained viral response (SVR) in patients with advanced liver fibrosis or cirrhosis. This meta-analysis investigated the predictive performance of transient elastography (TE) and fibrosis 4-index (FIB-4) for the development of HCC after SVR. Methods: We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library for studies examining the predictive performance of these tests in adult patients with HCV. Two authors independently screened the studies' methodological quality and extracted data. Pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated for HCC development using random-effects bivariate logit normal and linear-mixed effect models. Results: We included 27 studies (169,911 patients). Meta-analysis of HCC after SVR was possible in nine TE and 15 FIB-4 studies. Regarding the prediction of HCC development after SVR, the pooled AUCs of pre-treatment TE >9.2-13 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 were 0.79 and 0.73, respectively. TE >8.4-11 kPa and FIB-4 >3.25 measured after SVR, maintained good predictive performance, albeit slightly reduced (pooled AUCs: 0.77 and 0.70, respectively). The identified optimal cut-off value for HCC development after SVR was 12.6 kPa for pre-treatment TE. That of TE measured after the SVR was 11.2 kPa. Conclusion: TE and FIB-4 showed acceptable predictive performance for HCC development in patients with HCV who achieved SVR, underscoring their utility in clinical practice for guiding surveillance strategies. Future studies are needed to validate these findings prospectively and validate their clinical impact.

Risk Assessment of Hepatitis B virus-related Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development Using Transient Elastography: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using transient elastography (TE) can assess fibrotic burden in chronic liver diseases. The systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to determine whether LSM using TE can predict the risk of development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Methods: A systematic literature search of the Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases (from January 2010 to June 2023) was conducted. Of the 1,345 individual studies identified, 10 studies that used TE were finally registered. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the 95% confidence interval (CIs) were considered summary estimates of treatment effect sizes of ≥ 11 kilopascal (kPa) standard for HCC development. Meta-analysis was performed using the restricted Maximum Likelihood random effects model. Results: Among the ten studies, data for risk ratios for HCC development could be obtained from nine studies. When analyzed for the nine studies, the HR for HCC development was high at 3.33 (95% CI, 2.45-4.54) in CHB patients with a baseline LSM of ≥ 11 kPa compared to patients who did not. In ten studies included, LSM of ≥ 11 kPa showed the sensitivity and specificity for predicting HCC development were 61% (95% CI, 50-71%) and 78% (95% CI, 66-86%), respectively, and the diagnostic accuracy was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.70-0.77). Conclusions: The risk of HCC development was elevated in CHB patients with TE-determined LSM of ≥11 kPa. This finding suggests that TE-determined LSM values may aid the risk prediction of HCC development in CHB patients.

Transient elastography for significant fibrosis in treatment-naïve CHB patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background and Aims: Accurate diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is crucial when determining whether to initiate antiviral treatment (AVT). We conduct a meta-analysis to assess the diagnostic performance of transient elastography (TE) for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with serum alanine transaminase (ALT) levels within 5-fold the upper limit of normal (ULN). Methods: The Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane, and KoreaMed databases were searched to identify studies that compared the performance of TE and liver biopsy (reference standard) when diagnosing significant liver fibrosis (≥ F2) in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN. A hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) and bivariate model were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of TE in the meta-analysis. Results: Eight studies (2,003 patients) were included. The summary sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis were 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.86] and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.82), respectively. The HSROC for the diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.72-0.86). The optimal cut-off value of TE for diagnosis of significant liver fibrosis was 7.7 kPa with a sensitivity of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.50-0.76) and specificity of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.90). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that TE has an acceptable diagnostic performance for significant liver fibrosis in AVT-naïve CHB patients with ALT within 5-fold the ULN.

Diagnostic accuracy of the Fibrosis-4 index for advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease with type 2 diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: The Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is a non-invasive test widely used to rule out advanced liver fibrosis (AF) in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, its diagnostic accuracy in MASLD patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are controversial due to the high prevalence of AF in this population. Methods: Research focusing on the diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 for liver fibrosis as validated by liver histology in MASLD patients with T2DM was included, and 12 studies (n=5,624) were finally included in the meta-analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC), positive predictive values (PPVs), and negative predictive values (NPVs) at low cutoffs (1.3-1.67) and high cutoffs (2.67-3.25) for ruling in and out AF, were calculated. Results: At low cutoffs, the meta-analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.74, specificity of 0.62, and HSROC of 0.75. At high cutoffs, the analysis showed a sensitivity of 0.33, specificity of 0.92, and HSROC of 0.85, suggesting FIB-4 as useful for identifying or excluding AF. In subgroup analyses, high mean age and F3 prevalence were associated with lower sensitivity. The calculated NPV and PPV were 0.82 and 0.49 at low cutoffs, whereas the NPV was 0.28 and the PPV was 0.70 at high cutoffs. There were insufficient estimated NPVs <0.90 at a hypothesized prevalence of AF >30% at an FIB-4 cutoff range of 1.3-1.67. Conclusions: Collectively, FIB-4 has moderate diagnostic accuracy for identifying or excluding AF in MASLD patients with T2DM, but more evidence must be accumulated due to the limited number of currently reported studies and their heterogeneity.

Prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background/Aims: Although important, clinically significant liver fibrosis is often overlooked in the general population. We aimed to examine the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis using noninvasive tests (NITs) in the general population. Methods: We collected data from four databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, and KoreaMed) from inception to June 13, 2023. Original articles reporting the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population were included. The Stata metaprop function was used to obtain the pooled prevalence of liver fibrosis with NITs in the general population. Results: We screened 6,429 articles and included 45 eligible studies that reported the prevalence of clinically significant liver fibrosis in the general population. The prevalence of advanced liver fibrosis, using the high probability cutoff of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, was 2.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-3.7%). The prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, assessed using vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) among the general population, was 7.3% (95% CI, 5.9-8.8%), 3.5% (95% CI, 2.7-4.5), and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.8-1.8%), respectively. Region-based subgroup analysis revealed that the highest prevalence of advanced fibrosis using the high probability cutoff of the FIB-4 index was observed in the American region. Furthermore, the American region exhibits the highest prevalence of significant liver fibrosis, advanced liver fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, using VCTE. Conclusions: Previously undiagnosed clinically significant liver fibrosis is found in the general population through NITs. Future research is necessary to stratify the risk in the general population.

Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver clinical practice guidelines on liver transplantation.

Liver transplantation is a highly complex and challenging field of clinical practice. Although it was originally developed in western countries, it has been further advanced in Asian countries through the use of living donor liver transplantation. This method of transplantation is the only available option in many countries in the Asia-Pacific region due to the lack of deceased organ donation. As a result of this clinical situation, there is a growing need for guidelines that are specific to the Asia-Pacific region. These guidelines provide comprehensive recommendations for evidence-based management throughout the entire process of liver transplantation, covering both deceased and living donor liver transplantation. In addition, the development of these guidelines has been a collaborative effort between medical professionals from various countries in the region. This has allowed for the inclusion of diverse perspectives and experiences, leading to a more comprehensive and effective set of guidelines.

High-dose proton pump inhibitor treatment is associated with a higher mortality in cirrhotic patients: A multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Proton pump inhibitors (PPI) are frequently used in patients with cirrhosis. AIMS: This study aimed to determine whether PPI use is associated with the prognosis of cirrhotic patients. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study involving 1485 patients who had experienced hepatic encephalopathy (HE) from 7 referral centres in Korea. The primary outcome was overall survival and secondary outcomes included the development of cirrhotic complications, including recurrent HE, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and gastrointestinal bleeding. Patients treated with PPI with a mean defined daily dose (mDDD) ≥0.5 (high-dose PPI group) were compared to those treated with PPI of an mDDD < 0.5 (No or low-dose PPI group) for each outcome. RESULTS: Among 1485 patients (median age, 61 years; male, 61%), 232 were assigned to the high-dose PPI group. High-dose PPI use was independently associated with a higher risk of death (adjusted HR [aHR] = 1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.38-2.11, p < 0.001). This result was reproducible after propensity score-matching (PSM) (aHR = 1.90, 95% CI = 1.49-2.44, p < 0.001). High-dose PPI use was an independent risk factor of recurrent HE (before PSM: aHR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.66-2.51, p < 0.001; after PSM: aHR = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.70-2.74, p < 0.001), SBP (before PSM: aHR = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.43-2.43, p < 0.001; after PSM: aHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.31-2.36, p = 0.002), HRS (before PSM: aHR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.02-2.15, p = 0.04; after PSM: aHR = 1.47, 95% CI = 0.95-2.28, p = 0.09), and gastrointestinal bleeding (before PSM: aHR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.12-1.90, p = 0.006; after PSM: aHR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.28-2.37, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The use of high-dose PPI was independently associated with increased risks of mortality and cirrhotic complications.

Increased spine bone density in patients with chronic hepatitis B switched to tenofovir alafenamide: A prospective, multinational study.

BACKGROUND: Data on patients switched to tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) from nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) other than tenofovir disoproxil fumarate are limited. AIMS: To assess the treatment and renal/bone safety outcomes following the switch to TAF. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adult patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who switched from any NUC to TAF at 14 centres in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the U.S. Study outcomes were viral suppression (VR; HBV DNA < 20 IU/mL), biochemical response (BR; alanine aminotransferase normalisation), and changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and T-scores (L-spine) by bone absorptiometry by 24 months after switch to TAF. RESULTS: We enrolled 270 eligible patients. Mean age was 58.1; 58.2% were male; 12.2% had cirrhosis and 73.3% previously received entecavir monotherapy. VR rate increased significantly from 95.2% to 98.8% by 24 months after the switch to TAF (p = 0.014). Between the switch and 24 months later, the mean spine T-score improved significantly from -1.43 ± 1.36 to -1.17 ± 1.38 (p < 0.0001), while there was no significant change in mean eGFR (88.4 ± 16.9-89.5 ± 16.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 , p = 0.13). On multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, baseline spine T-score and prior TDF or adefovir dipivoxil use, male sex was significantly associated with lower risk of worsening spine T-score (odds ratio: 0.29, p = 0.020), while age was significantly associated with a higher risk of worsening chronic kidney disease stage (OR: 1.07, p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: At 24 months after the switch to TAF, VR rates and spine bone density improved significantly while renal function remained stable.

PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Recent studies reported that moderate HBV DNA levels are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive, non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We aimed to develop and validate a new risk score to predict HCC development using baseline moderate HBV DNA levels in patients entering into HBeAg-positive CHB from chronic infection. METHODS: This multicenter cohort study recruited 3,585 HBeAg-positive, non-cirrhotic patients who started antiviral treatment with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate at phase change into CHB from chronic infection in 23 tertiary university-affiliated hospitals of South Korea (2012-2020). A new HCC risk score (PAGED-B) was developed (training cohort, n = 2,367) based on multivariable Cox models. Internal validation using bootstrap sampling and external validation (validation cohort, n = 1,218) were performed. RESULTS: Sixty (1.7%) patients developed HCC (median follow-up, 5.4 years). In the training cohort, age, gender, platelets, diabetes and moderate HBV DNA levels (5.00-7.99 log10 IU/ml) were independently associated with HCC development; the PAGED-B score (based on these five predictors) showed a time-dependent AUROC of 0.81 for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years. In the validation cohort, the AUROC of PAGED-B was 0.85, significantly higher than for other risk scores (PAGE-B, mPAGE-B, CAMD, and REAL-B). When stratified by the PAGED-B score, the HCC risk was significantly higher in high-risk patients than in low-risk patients (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 8.43 in the training and 11.59 in the validation cohorts, all p <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The newly established PAGED-B score may enable risk stratification for HCC at the time of transition into HBeAg-positive CHB. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In this study, we developed and validated a new risk score to predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients entering into hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from chronic infection. The newly established PAGED-B score, which included baseline moderate HBV DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml), improved on the predictive performance of prior risk scores. Based on a patient's age, gender, diabetic status, platelet count, and moderate DNA levels (5-8 log10 IU/ml) at the phase change into CHB from chronic infection, the PAGED-B score represents a reliable and easily available risk score to predict HCC development during the first 5 years of antiviral treatment in HBeAg-positive patients entering into CHB. With a scoring range from 0 to 12 points, the PAGED-B score significantly differentiated the 5-year HCC risk: low <7 points and high ≥7 points.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and risk of cardiovascular disease.

OBJECTIVE: We explored clinical implications of the new definition of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) by assessing its prevalence and associated cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN: From nationwide health screening data, we identified 9 775 066 adults aged 20-79 who underwent health examination in 2009. Participants were categorised into four mutually exclusive groups: (1) MASLD; (2) MASLD with increased alcohol intake (MetALD); (3) MASLD with other combined aetiology (the three collectively referred to as MASLD/related steatotic liver disease (SLD)); and (4) no MASLD/related SLD. SLD was determined by fatty liver index ≥30. The primary outcome was CVD event, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, heart failure or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: The prevalence of MASLD, MetALD and MASLD with other combined aetiology was 27.5%, 4.4% and 1.5%, respectively. A total of 8 808 494 participants without prior CVD were followed up for a median of 12.3 years, during which 272 863 CVD events occurred. The cumulative incidence and multivariable-adjusted risk of CVD were higher in participants with MASLD/related SLD than in those without (HR 1.38 (95% CI 1.37 to 1.39)). Multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) of CVD events was 1.39 (1.38 to 1.40) for MASLD, 1.28 (1.26 to 1.30) for MetALD and 1.30 (1.26 to 1.34) for MASLD with other combined aetiology compared to the absence of any of these conditions. CVD risk was also higher in participants with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease than in those without the respective condition. CONCLUSION: Over one-third of Korean adults have MASLD/related SLD and bear a high CVD risk.

Identification of patients with favorable prognosis after resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUNDS: It is unclear which patients benefit from resection in intermediate-stage-hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The authors aimed to identify high-risk patients for early recurrence among patients with resectable intermediate-stage HCC. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study included patients who underwent resection or trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage HCC (2008-2019). Multivariable Cox proportional analysis was performed to identify high-risk patients when treated with resection. A prediction score for 2-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was developed using the training cohort and validated. The 2-year RFS in each risk group was compared with that in TACE group, after propensity score matching (PSM). RESULTS: A total of 1686 patients were included (480 and 1206 patients in the resection and TACE groups). During a median follow-up of 31.4 months, the 2-year RFS was significantly higher in the resection (47.7%) than in the TACE group (19.8%) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)=1.471, 95% CI: 1.199-1.803, P <0.001). On multivariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein ≥5.0 ng/ml (aHR=0.202), ALBI grade ≥2 (aHR=0.709), tumor number ≥3 (aHR=0.404), and maximal tumor size ≥5 cm (aHR=0.323) were significantly associated with the lower risk of 2-year RFS in the resection group. The newly developed Surgery Risk score in BCLC-B (SR-B score) with four significant risk factors showed an area under the curve of 0.801 for the 2-year RFS and was validated. Based on the SR-B score, low-risk patients had a significantly higher 2-year RFS (training: aHR=5.834; validation: aHR=5.675) than high-risk patients (all P <0.001) did. In a PSM cohort, a low-risk resection group had a significantly higher (aHR=3.891); a high-risk resection group had a comparable 2-year RFS to those treated with TACE (aHR=0.816). CONCLUSIONS: Resection may be beneficial for resectable intermediate-stage HCC based on the SR-B score.

Improving primary prophylaxis of variceal bleeding by adapting therapy to the clinical stage of cirrhosis. A competing-risk meta-analysis of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-selective ß-blockers (NSBBs) and endoscopic variceal-ligation (EVL) have similar efficacy preventing first variceal bleeding. Compensated and decompensated cirrhosis are markedly different stages, which may impact treatment outcomes. We aimed to assess the efficacy of NSBBs vs EVL on survival in patients with high-risk varices without previous bleeding, stratifying risk according to compensated/decompensated stage of cirrhosis. METHODS: By systematic review, we identified RCTs comparing NSBBs vs EVL, in monotherapy or combined, for primary bleeding prevention. We performed a competing-risk, time-to-event meta-analysis, using individual patient data (IPD) obtained from principal investigators of RCTs. Analyses were stratified according to previous decompensation of cirrhosis. RESULTS: Of 25 RCTs eligible, 14 failed to provide IPD and 11 were included, comprising 1400 patients (656 compensated, 744 decompensated), treated with NSBBs (N = 625), EVL (N = 546) or NSBB+EVL (N = 229). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Overall, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs (subdistribution hazard-ratio (sHR) = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.75-1.49) and with EVL + NSBBs vs either monotherapy, with low heterogeneity (I2 = 28.7%). In compensated patients, mortality risk was higher with EVL vs NSBBs (sHR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.11-2.77) and not significantly lower with NSBBs+EVL vs NSBBs, without heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). In decompensated patients, mortality risk was similar with EVL vs. NSBBs and with NSBBs+EVL vs. either monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with compensated cirrhosis and high-risk varices on primary prophylaxis, NSBBs significantly improved survival vs EVL, with no additional benefit noted adding EVL to NSBBs. In decompensated patients, survival was similar with both therapies. The study suggests that NSBBs are preferable when advising preventive therapy in compensated patients.

Impact of Low Skeletal Muscle Mass on Long-Term Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Trans-Arterial Radioembolization: A Retrospective Multi-Center Study.

Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) is a form of radiation therapy performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) via selective intra-arterial injection of Yttrium-90-loaded microspheres. This was a multi-center retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC who underwent TARE between July 2009 and May 2019. Using pre-treatment computed tomography imaging, the total cross-sectional area (cm2) of the abdominal skeletal muscle at the third lumbar vertebra was measured. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated by normalizing the muscle area to patient height. In total, 347 patients (median age, 65 years; 284 male) were included in the study. A total of 108 (31.1%) patients had portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), and 126 (36.3%) were classified as LSMM. The median overall survival (OS) was 28.1 months (95% CI, 24.8-35.7), and median progression-free survival was 8.0 months (95% CI, 6.4-9.4). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that LSMM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00-1.85, p = 0.05), PVTT (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.33-2.49, p < 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥200 ng/mL) (HR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.04-1.92, p = 0.03), and albumin-bilirubin grade (2-3) (HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.24-2.43, p < 0.01) were independently associated with poor OS. TARE provided favorable long-term outcomes for patients with advanced HCC. Pre-treatment LSMM independently associated with survival, suggesting its utility as a surrogate biomarker for identifying TARE candidates.