RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Although several risk indices have been developed to aid in the diagnosis of NSTIs, these instruments suffer from varying levels of reproducibility and failure to incorporate key clinical variables in model development. The objective of this study was to derive and validate a clinical risk index score - NECROSIS - for identifying NSTIs in emergency general surgery (EGS) patients being evaluated for severe skin and soft tissue infections. METHODS: We performed a prospective study across 16 sites in the US of adult EGS patients with suspected NSTIs over a 30-month period. Variables analyzed included demographics, admission vitals and labs, physical exam, radiographic, and operative findings. The main outcome measure was the presence of NSTI diagnosed clinically at the time of surgery. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for the presence of NSTI using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and the Akaike information criteria. RESULTS: Of 362 patients, 297 (82%) were diagnosed with a NSTI. Overall mortality was 12.3%. Multivariate analysis identified 3 independent predictors for NSTI: systolic blood pressure ≤ 120 mmHg, violaceous skin, and WBC ≥15 (x103/uL). Multivariate modelling demonstrated Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit (p = 0.9) with a c-statistic for the prediction curve of 0.75. Test characteristics of the NECROSIS score were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: NECROSIS is a simple and potentially useful clinical index score for identifying at-risk EGS patients with NSTIs. Future validation studies are warranted. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic Tests or Criteria, Level III.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Death from noncompressible torso hemorrhage (NCTH) may be preventable with improved prehospital care and shorter in-hospital times to hemorrhage control. We hypothesized that shorter times to surgical intervention for hemorrhage control would decrease mortality in hypotensive patients with NCTH. METHODS: This was an AAST-sponsored multicenter, prospective analysis of hypotensive patients aged 15+ years who presented with NCTH from May 2018 to December 2020. Hypotension was defined as an initial systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≤ 90 mm Hg. Primary outcomes of interest were time to surgical intervention and in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: There were 242 hypotensive patients, of which 48 died (19.8%). Nonsurvivors had higher mean age (47.3 vs. 38.8; p = 0.02), higher mean New Injury Severity Score (38 vs. 29; p < 0.001), lower admit systolic blood pressure (68 vs. 79 mm Hg; p < 0.01), higher incidence of vascular injury (41.7% vs. 21.1%; p = 0.02), and shorter median (interquartile range, 25-75) time from injury to operating room start (74 minutes [48-98 minutes] vs. 88 minutes [61-128 minutes]; p = 0.03) than did survivors. Multivariable Cox regression showed shorter time from emergency department arrival to operating room start was not associated with improved survival (p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Patients who died arrived to a trauma center in a similar time frame as did survivors but presented in greater physiological distress and had significantly shorter times to surgical hemorrhage intervention than did survivors. This suggests that even expediting a critically ill patient through the current trauma system is not sufficient time to save lives from NCTH. Civilian prehospital advance resuscitative care starting from the patient first contact needs special consideration. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic/Epidemiologic, Level III.