Estimating social-ecological resilience: fire management futures in the Sonoran Desert.

Resilience quantifies the ability of a system to remain in or return to its current state following disturbance. Due to inconsistent terminology and usage of resilience frameworks, quantitative resilience studies are challenging, and resilience is often treated as an abstract concept rather than a measurable system characteristic. We used a novel, spatially explicit stakeholder engagement process to quantify social-ecological resilience to fire, in light of modeled social-ecological fire risk, across the non-fire-adapted Sonoran Desert Ecosystem in Arizona, USA. Depending on its severity and the characteristics of the ecosystem, fire as a disturbance has the potential to drive ecological state change. As a result, fire regime change is of increasing concern as global change and management legacies alter the distribution and flammability of fuels. Because management and use decisions impact resources and ecological processes, social and ecological factors must be evaluated together to predict resilience to fire. We found highest fire risk in the central and eastern portions of the study area, where flammable fuels occur with greater density and frequency and managers reported fewer management resources than in other locations. We found lowest fire resilience in the southeastern portion of the study area, where combined ecological and social factors, including abundant fuels, few management resources, and little evidence of past institutional adaptability, indicated that sites were least likely to retain their current characteristics and permit achievement of current management objectives. Analyzing ecological and social characteristics together permits regional managers to predict the effects of changing fire regimes across large, multi-jurisdictional landscapes and to consider where to direct resources. This study brought social and ecological factors together into a common spatial framework to produce vulnerability maps; our methods may inform researchers and managers in other systems facing novel disturbance and spatially variable resilience.

Land management objectives and activities in the face of projected fire regime change in the Sonoran desert.

As a multi-jurisdictional, non-fire-adapted region, the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion is a complex, social-ecological system faced increasingly with no-analogue conditions. A diversity of management objectives and activities form the socioecological landscape of fire management. Different managers have different objectives, resources, and constraints, and each therefore applies different activities. As a result, it can be difficult to predict the regional consequences of changing fire regimes. We interviewed and surveyed managers of 53 million acres of government-managed lands across the Sonoran Desert Ecoregion of Arizona, asking them to describe their management objectives and activities as well as expected changes in the face of projected fire regime change across the region. If current activities were deemed unlikely to meet objectives into the future, this represents a likely adaptation turning point, where new activities are required in order to meet objectives. If no potential activity will meet an objective, it may be necessary to select a new objective, indicating an adaptation tipping point. Here, we report which current objectives and activities are deemed by managers most likely and least likely to succeed. We also discuss constraints reported by managers from different jurisdictions. We find that agriculture, military, and resource extraction objectives are perceived by managers as most likely to be met, whereas conservation of natural and cultural resources is considered least likely to be achieved. Federal land managers reported higher likelihood of both achieving current objectives and adopting new activities than did non-federal land managers. This study illustrates how rapid global change is affecting the ability of land managers differing in missions, mandates, and resources to achieve their central objectives, as well as the constraints and opportunities they face. Our results indicate that changing environmental conditions are unlikely to affect all management entities equally and for some jurisdictions may result in adaptation turning points or tipping points in natural and cultural resource conservation.

Evaluating a new method for reconstructing forest conditions from General Land Office survey records.

Historical forest conditions are often used to inform contemporary management goals because historical forests are considered to be resilient to ecological disturbances. The General Land Office (GLO) surveys of the late 19th and early 20th centuries provide regionally quasi-contiguous data sets of historical forests across much of the Western United States. Multiple methods exist for estimating tree density from point-based sampling such as the GLO surveys, including distance-based and area-based approaches. Area-based approaches have been applied in California mixed-conifer forests but their estimates have not been validated. To assess the accuracy and precision of plotless density estimators with potential for application to GLO data in this region, we imposed a GLO sampling scheme on six mapped forest stands of known densities (159-784 trees/ha) in the Sierra Nevada in California, USA, and Baja California Norte, Mexico. We compared three distance-based plotless density estimators (Cottam, Pollard, and Morisita) as well as two Voronoi area (VA) estimators, the Delincé and mean harmonic Voronoi density (MHVD), to the true densities. We simulated sampling schemes of increasing intensity to assess sampling error. The relative error (RE) of density estimates for the GLO sampling scheme ranged from 0.36 to 4.78. The least biased estimate of tree density in every stand was obtained with the Morisita estimator and the most biased was obtained with the MHVD estimator. The MHVD estimates of tree density were 1.2-3.8 times larger than the true densities and performed best in stands subject to fire exclusion for 100 yr. The Delincé approach obtained accurate estimates of density, implying that the Voronoi approach is theoretically sound but that its application in the MHVD was flawed. The misapplication was attributed to two causes: (1) the use of a crown scaling factor that does not correct for the number of trees sampled and (2) the persistent underestimate of the true VA due to a weak relationship between tree size and VA. The magnitude of differences between true densities and MHVD estimates suggest caution in using results based on the MHVD to inform management and restoration practices in the conifer forests of the American West.

Ectomycorrhizal fungal spore bank recovery after a severe forest fire: some like it hot.

After severe wildfires, pine recovery depends on ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal spores surviving and serving as partners for regenerating forest trees. We took advantage of a large, severe natural forest fire that burned our long-term study plots to test the response of ECM fungi to fire. We sampled the ECM spore bank using pine seedling bioassays and high-throughput sequencing before and after the California Rim Fire. We found that ECM spore bank fungi survived the fire and dominated the colonization of in situ and bioassay seedlings, but there were specific fire adapted fungi such as Rhizopogon olivaceotinctus that increased in abundance after the fire. The frequency of ECM fungal species colonizing pre-fire bioassay seedlings, post-fire bioassay seedlings and in situ seedlings were strongly positively correlated. However, fire reduced the ECM spore bank richness by eliminating some of the rare species, and the density of the spore bank was reduced as evidenced by a larger number of soil samples that yielded uncolonized seedlings. Our results show that although there is a reduction in ECM inoculum, the ECM spore bank community largely remains intact, even after a high-intensity fire. We used advanced techniques for data quality control with Illumina and found consistent results among varying methods. Furthermore, simple greenhouse bioassays can be used to determine which fungi will colonize after fires. Similar to plant seed banks, a specific suite of ruderal, spore bank fungi take advantage of open niche space after fires.