Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis of Dynamic Cerebral Autoregulation and Functional Outcome After Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between dynamic cerebral autoregulation (dCA) and functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is unclear. Previous studies are limited by small sample sizes and heterogeneity. METHODS: We performed a 1-stage individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate associations between dCA and functional outcome after AIS. Participating centers were identified through a systematic search of the literature and direct invitation. We included centers with dCA data within 1 year of AIS in adults aged over 18 years, excluding intracerebral or subarachnoid hemorrhage. Data were obtained on phase, gain, coherence, and autoregulation index derived from transfer function analysis at low-frequency and very low-frequency bands. Cerebral blood velocity, arterial pressure, end-tidal carbon dioxide, heart rate, stroke severity and sub-type, and comorbidities were collected where available. Data were grouped into 4 time points after AIS: <24 hours, 24 to 72 hours, 4 to 7 days, and >3 months. The modified Rankin Scale assessed functional outcome at 3 months. Modified Rankin Scale was analyzed as both dichotomized (0 to 2 versus 3 to 6) and ordinal (modified Rankin Scale scores, 0-6) outcomes. Univariable and multivariable analyses were conducted to identify significant relationships between dCA parameters, comorbidities, and outcomes, for each time point using generalized linear (dichotomized outcome), or cumulative link (ordinal outcome) mixed models. The participating center was modeled as a random intercept to generate odds ratios with 95% CIs. RESULTS: The sample included 384 individuals (35% women) from 7 centers, aged 66.3±13.7 years, with predominantly nonlacunar stroke (n=348, 69%). In the affected hemisphere, higher phase at very low-frequency predicted better outcome (dichotomized modified Rankin Scale) at <24 (crude odds ratios, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.47-3.19]; P<0.001) hours, 24-72 (crude odds ratios, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.21-3.13]; P=0.006) hours, and phase at low-frequency predicted outcome at 3 (crude odds ratios, 3.03 [95% CI, 1.10-8.33]; P=0.032) months. These results remained after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Greater transfer function analysis-derived phase was associated with improved functional outcome at 3 months after AIS. dCA parameters in the early phase of AIS may help to predict functional outcome.

Factors associated with physical function among people with systemic sclerosis: a SPIN cohort cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To compare physical function in systemic sclerosis (SSc, scleroderma) to general population normative data and identify associated factors. METHODS: Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Cohort participants completed the Physical Function domain of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Version 2 upon enrolment. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess associations of sociodemographic, lifestyle, and disease-related variables. RESULTS: Among 2,385 participants, mean physical function T-score (43.7, SD = 8.9) was ∼2/3 of a standard deviation (SD) below the US general population (mean = 50, SD = 10). Factors associated in multivariable analysis included older age (-0.74 points per SD years, 95% CI -0.78 to -1.08), female sex (-1.35, -2.37 to -0.34), fewer years of education (-0.41 points per SD in years, -0.75 to -0.07), being single, divorced, or widowed (-0.76, -1.48 to -0.03), smoking (-3.14, -4.42 to -1.85), alcohol consumption (0.79 points per SD drinks per week, 0.45-1.14), BMI (-1.41 points per SD, -1.75 to -1.07), diffuse subtype (-1.43, -2.23 to -0.62), gastrointestinal involvement (-2.58, -3.53 to -1.62), digital ulcers (-1.96, -2.94 to -0.98), moderate (-1.94, -2.94 to -0.93) and severe (-1.76, -3.24 to -0.28) small joint contractures, moderate (-2.10, -3.44 to -0.76) and severe (-2.54, -4.64 to -0.44) large joint contractures, interstitial lung disease (-1.52, -2.27 to -0.77), pulmonary arterial hypertension (-3.72, -4.91 to -2.52), rheumatoid arthritis (-2.10, -3.64 to -0.56) and idiopathic inflammatory myositis (-2.10, -3.63 to -0.56). CONCLUSION: Physical function is impaired for many individuals with SSc and associated with multiple disease factors.

Factors associated with satisfaction with social roles and activities among people with systemic sclerosis: a Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) cohort cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives were to (1) compare satisfaction with social roles and activities in a large multinational systemic sclerosis (SSc) cohort to general population normative data and (2) identify sociodemographic, lifestyle and SSc disease factors associated with satisfaction with social roles and activities. METHODS: Participants in the Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Cohort completed the Patient Reported Outcomes Information System Version 2 satisfaction with social roles and activities domain questionnaire. Multivariable regression was used to assess associations with sociodemographic, lifestyle and disease factors. RESULTS: Among 2385 participants, mean satisfaction with social roles and activities T-score (48.1, SD=9.9) was slightly lower than the US general population (mean=50, SD=10). Factors independently associated with satisfaction were years of education (0.54 per SD, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.93); non-White race or ethnicity (-1.13, 95% CI -2.18 to -0.08); living in Canada (-1.33, 95% CI -2.40 to -0.26 (reference USA)) or the UK (-2.49, 95% CI -3.92 to -1.06); body mass index (-1.08 per SD, 95% CI -1.47 to -0.69); gastrointestinal involvement (-3.16, 95% CI -4.27 to -2.05); digital ulcers (-1.90, 95% CI -3.05 to -0.76); moderate (-1.62, 95% CI -2.78 to -0.45) or severe (-2.26, 95% CI -3.99 to -0.52) small joint contractures; interstitial lung disease (-1.11, 95% CI -1.97 to -0.25); pulmonary arterial hypertension (-2.69, 95% CI -4.08 to -1.30); rheumatoid arthritis (-2.51, 95% CI -4.28 to -0.73); and Sjogren's syndrome (-2.42, 95% CI -3.96 to -0.88). CONCLUSION: Mean satisfaction with social roles and activities is slightly lower in SSc than the general population and associated with multiple sociodemographic and disease factors.

LI-RADS CT and MRI Ancillary Feature Association with Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Malignancy: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis.

Background The independent contribution of each Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) CT or MRI ancillary feature (AF) has not been established. Purpose To evaluate the association of LI-RADS AFs with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and malignancy while adjusting for LI-RADS major features through an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis. Materials and Methods Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Scopus were searched from January 2014 to January 2022 for studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of CT and MRI for HCC using LI-RADS version 2014, 2017, or 2018. Using a one-step approach, IPD across studies were pooled. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were derived from multivariable logistic regression models of each AF combined with major features except threshold growth (excluded because of infrequent reporting). Liver observation clustering was addressed at the study and participant levels through random intercepts. Risk of bias was assessed using a composite reference standard and Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2. Results Twenty studies comprising 3091 observations (2456 adult participants; mean age, 59 years ± 11 [SD]; 1849 [75.3%] men) were included. In total, 89% (eight of nine) of AFs favoring malignancy were associated with malignancy and/or HCC, 80% (four of five) of AFs favoring HCC were associated with HCC, and 57% (four of seven) of AFs favoring benignity were negatively associated with HCC and/or malignancy. Nonenhancing capsule (OR = 3.50 [95% CI: 1.53, 8.01]) had the strongest association with HCC. Diffusion restriction (OR = 14.45 [95% CI: 9.82, 21.27]) and mild-moderate T2 hyperintensity (OR = 10.18 [95% CI: 7.17, 14.44]) had the strongest association with malignancy. The strongest negative associations with HCC were parallels blood pool enhancement (OR = 0.07 [95% CI: 0.01, 0.49]) and marked T2 hyperintensity (OR = 0.18 [95% CI: 0.07, 0.45]). Seventeen studies (85%) had a high risk of bias. Conclusion Most LI-RADS AFs were independently associated with HCC, malignancy, or benignity as intended when adjusting for major features. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Crivellaro in this issue.

An empirical comparison of statistical methods for multiple cut-off diagnostic test accuracy meta-analysis of the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale (EPDS) depression screening tool using published results vs individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Selective reporting of results from only well-performing cut-offs leads to biased estimates of accuracy in primary studies of questionnaire-based screening tools and in meta-analyses that synthesize results. Individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) of sensitivity and specificity at each cut-off via bivariate random-effects models (BREMs) can overcome this problem. However, IPDMA is laborious and depends on the ability to successfully obtain primary datasets, and BREMs ignore the correlation between cut-offs within primary studies. METHODS: We compared the performance of three recent multiple cut-off models developed by Steinhauser et al., Jones et al., and Hoyer and Kuss, that account for missing cut-offs when meta-analyzing diagnostic accuracy studies with multiple cut-offs, to BREMs fitted at each cut-off. We used data from 22 studies of the accuracy of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS; 4475 participants, 758 major depression cases). We fitted each of the three multiple cut-off models and BREMs to a dataset with results from only published cut-offs from each study (published data) and an IPD dataset with results for all cut-offs (full IPD data). We estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each cut-off and the area under the curve. RESULTS: Compared to the BREMs fitted to the full IPD data, the Steinhauser et al., Jones et al., and Hoyer and Kuss models fitted to the published data produced similar receiver operating characteristic curves; though, the Hoyer and Kuss model had lower area under the curve, mainly due to estimating slightly lower sensitivity at lower cut-offs. When fitting the three multiple cut-off models to the full IPD data, a similar pattern of results was observed. Importantly, all models had similar 95% CIs for sensitivity and specificity, and the CI width increased with cut-off levels for sensitivity and decreased with an increasing cut-off for specificity, even the BREMs which treat each cut-off separately. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple cut-off models appear to be the favorable methods when only published data are available. While collecting IPD is expensive and time consuming, IPD can facilitate subgroup analyses that cannot be conducted with published data only.

Moderators of Loneliness Trajectories in People with Systemic Sclerosis During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A SPIN COVID-19 Cohort Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: Many individuals with systemic sclerosis (SSc) are at heightened risk for COVID-19 related morbidity and isolation due to interstitial lung disease, frailty, and immunosuppressant use. Minimal research has explored loneliness predictors in individuals with chronic illnesses during COVID-19. This study evaluated moderators of loneliness trajectories in individuals with SSc during COVID-19. METHODS: Longitudinal data were analyzed across 30 timepoints from April 2020 to May 2022 from 775 adults in the Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) COVID-19 Cohort. Hierarchical linear modeling evaluated cross-level moderators of loneliness trajectories, including marital status, baseline number of household members, number of virtual or telephone one-on-one or virtual group conversations, number of hours spent enjoying in-person household conversations or activities, and satisfaction with quality of in-person household conversations (all in the past week). Level-1 moderation analyses assessed effects of conversation, activity, and satisfaction means and slopes over time. RESULTS: Baseline values were not statistically significant moderators of loneliness trajectories. Higher mean (averaged over time) virtual or telephone one-on-one and in-person household conversations, in-person household activity, and in-person household conversation satisfaction were associated with lower loneliness trajectories (ps < .05). The relationship between in-person household conversation satisfaction and loneliness trajectory was statistically significantly but minimally attenuated over time (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: For people with SSc, higher mean conversation, activity, and satisfaction variables were associated with lower levels of loneliness during the pandemic, but changes in these social variables were generally not predictive of changes in loneliness.

A qualitative interview study exploring the psychological health impacts of the SPIN-CHAT program among people with systemic sclerosis at the onset of COVID-19: perceptions of trial participants and research team members.

PURPOSE: Explore trial participants' and research team members' perceptions of the impact of the videoconference-based, supportive care program (SPIN-CHAT Program) during early COVID-19 for individuals with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Data were collected cross-sectionally. A social constructivist paradigm was adopted, and one-on-one videoconference-based, semi-structured interviews were conducted with SPIN-CHAT Trial participants and research team members. A hybrid inductive-deductive approach and reflexive thematic analysis were used. RESULTS: Of the 40 SPIN-CHAT Trial participants and 28 research team members approached, 30 trial participants (Mean age = 54.9; SD = 13.0 years) and 22 research team members agreed to participate. Those who took part in interviews had similar characteristics to those who declined. Five themes were identified: (1) The SPIN-CHAT Program conferred a range of positive psychological health outcomes, (2) People who don't have SSc don't get it: The importance of SSc-specific programming, (3) The group-based format of the SPIN-CHAT Program created a safe space to connect and meet similar others, (4) The structure and schedule of the SPIN-CHAT Program reduced feelings of boredom and contributed to enhanced psychological health, (5) The necessity of knowledge, skills, and tools to self-manage SSc and navigate COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Participants' and research team members' perspectives elucidated SPIN-CHAT Program benefits and how these benefits may have been realized. Results underscore the importance of social support from similar others, structure, and self-management to enhance psychological health during COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04335279)IMPLICATIONS FOR REHABILITATIONThe videoconference-based, supportive care SPIN-CHAT Program enhanced psychological health amongst individuals affected by systemic sclerosis.SPIN-CHAT Program participants and research team members shared that being around similar others, program structure, and self-management support were important and may have contributed to enhanced psychological health.Further efforts are required to explore experiences within supportive care programs to better understand if and how psychological health is impacted.

How to plan and manage an individual participant data meta-analysis. An illustrative toolkit.

Individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs) have several benefits over standard aggregate data meta-analyses, including the consideration of additional participants, follow-up time, and the joint consideration of study- and participant-level heterogeneity for improved diagnostic and prognostic model development and evaluation. However, IPD-MAs are resource-intensive and require careful budgeting of time from data contributing groups, a dedicated management team, diversity of expertise, clearly documented data sharing and authorship agreements, and consistent and clear communication. We present a toolkit to facilitate the implementation and management of IPD-MAs, from study recruitment to retrospective harmonization. The toolkit was developed and refined over our work on multiple multinational IPD-MA projects over the last 13 years. The toolkit's budget and email templates, agreements, project management spreadsheets, and standard operating procedures are meant to facilitate routine IPD-MA tasks to expedite implementing and managing future IPD-MA projects.

Risk of bias assessments in individual participant data meta-analyses of test accuracy and prediction models: a review shows improvements are needed.

OBJECTIVES: Risk of bias assessments are important in meta-analyses of both aggregate and individual participant data (IPD). There is limited evidence on whether and how risk of bias of included studies or datasets in IPD meta-analyses (IPDMAs) is assessed. We review how risk of bias is currently assessed, reported, and incorporated in IPDMAs of test accuracy and clinical prediction model studies and provide recommendations for improvement. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched PubMed (January 2018-May 2020) to identify IPDMAs of test accuracy and prediction models, then elicited whether each IPDMA assessed risk of bias of included studies and, if so, how assessments were reported and subsequently incorporated into the IPDMAs. RESULTS: Forty-nine IPDMAs were included. Nineteen of 27 (70%) test accuracy IPDMAs assessed risk of bias, compared to 5 of 22 (23%) prediction model IPDMAs. Seventeen of 19 (89%) test accuracy IPDMAs used Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2), but no tool was used consistently among prediction model IPDMAs. Of IPDMAs assessing risk of bias, 7 (37%) test accuracy IPDMAs and 1 (20%) prediction model IPDMA provided details on the information sources (e.g., the original manuscript, IPD, primary investigators) used to inform judgments, and 4 (21%) test accuracy IPDMAs and 1 (20%) prediction model IPDMA provided information or whether assessments were done before or after obtaining the IPD of the included studies or datasets. Of all included IPDMAs, only seven test accuracy IPDMAs (26%) and one prediction model IPDMA (5%) incorporated risk of bias assessments into their meta-analyses. For future IPDMA projects, we provide guidance on how to adapt tools such as Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (for prediction models) and QUADAS-2 (for test accuracy) to assess risk of bias of included primary studies and their IPD. CONCLUSION: Risk of bias assessments and their reporting need to be improved in IPDMAs of test accuracy and, especially, prediction model studies. Using recommended tools, both before and after IPD are obtained, will address this.

Randomized controlled trial of an individual blended cognitive behavioral therapy to reduce psychological distress among distressed colorectal cancer survivors: The COloRectal canceR distrEss reduCTion trial.

OBJECTIVE: Colorectal cancer survivors (CRCS) often experience high levels of distress. The objective of this randomized controlled trial was to evaluate the effect of blended cognitive behavior therapy (bCBT) on distress severity among distressed CRCS. METHODS: CRCS (targeted N = 160) with high distress (Distress Thermometer ≥5) between 6 months and 5 years post cancer treatment were randomly allocated (1:1 ratio) to receive bCBT, (14 weeks including five face-to-face, and three telephone sessions and access to interactive website), or care as usual (CAU). Participants completed questionnaires at baseline (T0), four (T1) and 7 months later (T2). Intervention participants completed bCBT between T0 and T1. The primary outcome analyzed in the intention-to-treat population was distress severity (Brief Symptom Inventory; BSI-18) immediately post-intervention (T1). RESULTS: 84 participants were randomized to bCBT (n = 41) or CAU (n = 43). In intention-to-treat analysis, the intervention significantly reduced distress immediately post-intervention (-3.86 points, 95% CI -7.00 to -0.73) and at 7 months post-randomization (-3.88 points, 95% CI -6.95 to -0.80) for intervention compared to CAU. Among secondary outcomes, at both time points, depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, cancer worry, and cancer-specific distress were significantly lower in the intervention arm. Self-efficacy scores were significantly higher. Overall treatment satisfaction was high (7.4/10, N = 36) and 94% of participants would recommend the intervention to other colorectal cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: The blended COloRectal canceR distrEss reduCTion intervention seems an efficacious psychological intervention to reduce distress severity in distressed CRCS. Yet uncertainty remains about effectiveness because fewer participants than targeted were included in this trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register NTR6025.

Depression screening tool accuracy individual participant data meta-analyses: data contribution was associated with multiple factors.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the proportion of eligible primary studies that contributed data, study characteristics associated with data contribution, and reasons for noncontribution using diagnostic test accuracy Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis (IPDMA) data sets from the DEPRESsion Screening Data project. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed data set contributions from four IPDMAs. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to evaluate study factors associated with data contribution. RESULTS: Of 456 eligible studies from four included IPDMAs, 295 (65%) contributed data. More recent year of publication and higher journal impact factor were associated with greater odds of data contribution. Studies conducted in Europe (excluding the United Kingdom), Oceania, Canada, the Middle East, Africa, and Central or South America (reference = the United States), that have recruitment from inpatient care or nonmedical settings (reference = outpatient), that reported screening accuracy results, or that drew negative conclusions (reference = positive conclusions) were more likely to contribute data. Studies of the Geriatric Depression Scale (reference = the Patient Health Questionnaire) or lacking funding information were negatively associated with data contribution. Over 80% of noncontributions were due to authors being unreachable or data being unavailable. CONCLUSION: The study identified factors associated with data contribution that may support future research to promote data contribution to IPDMAs.

Patterns of patient-reported symptoms and association with sociodemographic and systemic sclerosis disease characteristics: a scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) Cohort cross-sectional study.

Background: Systemic sclerosis is a heterogenous disease in which little is known about patterns of patient-reported symptom clusters. We aimed to identify classes of individuals with similar anxiety, depression, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain symptoms and to evaluate associated sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics. Methods: This multi-centre cross-sectional study used baseline data from Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Cohort participants enrolled from 2014 to 2020. Eligible participants completed the PROMIS-29 v2.0 measure. Latent profile analysis was used to identify homogeneous classes of participants based on patterns of anxiety, depression, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain scores. Sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics were compared across classes. Findings: Among 2212 participants, we identified five classes, including four classes with "Low" (565 participants, 26%), "Normal" (651 participants, 29%), "High" (569 participants, 26%), or "Very High" (193 participants, 9%) symptom levels across all symptoms. Participants in a fifth class, "High Fatigue/Sleep/Pain and Low Anxiety/Depression" (234 participants, 11%) had similar levels of fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain as in the "High" class but low anxiety and depression symptoms. There were significant and substantive trends in sociodemographic characteristics (age, education, race or ethnicity, marital or partner status) and increasing disease severity (diffuse disease, tendon friction rubs, joint contractures, gastrointestinal symptoms) across severity-based classes. Disease severity and sociodemographic characteristics of "High Fatigue/Sleep/Pain and Low Anxiety/Depression" class participants were similar to the "High" severity class. Interpretation: Most people with systemic sclerosis can be classified by levels of patient-reported symptoms, which are consistent across symptoms and highly associated with sociodemographic and disease-related variables, except for one group which reports low mental health symptoms despite high levels of other symptoms and substantial disease burden. Studies are needed to better understand resilience in systemic sclerosis and to identify and facilitate implementation of cognitive and behavioural strategies to improve coping and overall quality of life. Funding: National Institute of Nursing Research (F31NR019007), Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Arthritis Society Canada, the Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, the Jewish General Hospital Foundation, McGill University, Scleroderma Society of Ontario, Scleroderma Canada, Sclérodermie Québec, Scleroderma Manitoba, Scleroderma Atlantic, Scleroderma Association of BC, Scleroderma SASK, Scleroderma Australia, Scleroderma New South Wales, Scleroderma Victoria, and Scleroderma Queensland.

Overlapping research efforts in a global pandemic: a rapid systematic review of COVID-19-related individual participant data meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Individual participant data meta-analyses (IPD-MAs), which involve harmonising and analysing participant-level data from related studies, provide several advantages over aggregate data meta-analyses, which pool study-level findings. IPD-MAs are especially important for building and evaluating diagnostic and prognostic models, making them an important tool for informing the research and public health responses to COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted a rapid systematic review of protocols and publications from planned, ongoing, or completed COVID-19-related IPD-MAs to identify areas of overlap and maximise data request and harmonisation efforts. We searched four databases using a combination of text and MeSH terms. Two independent reviewers determined eligibility at the title-abstract and full-text stages. Data were extracted by one reviewer into a pretested data extraction form and subsequently reviewed by a second reviewer. Data were analysed using a narrative synthesis approach. A formal risk of bias assessment was not conducted. RESULTS: We identified 31 COVID-19-related IPD-MAs, including five living IPD-MAs and ten IPD-MAs that limited their inference to published data (e.g., case reports). We found overlap in study designs, populations, exposures, and outcomes of interest. For example, 26 IPD-MAs included RCTs; 17 IPD-MAs were limited to hospitalised patients. Sixteen IPD-MAs focused on evaluating medical treatments, including six IPD-MAs for antivirals, four on antibodies, and two that evaluated convalescent plasma. CONCLUSIONS: Collaboration across related IPD-MAs can leverage limited resources and expertise by expediting the creation of cross-study participant-level data datasets, which can, in turn, fast-track evidence synthesis for the improved diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: 10.17605/OSF.IO/93GF2.

A case study of an individual participant data meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy showed that prediction regions represented heterogeneity well.

The diagnostic accuracy of a screening tool is often characterized by its sensitivity and specificity. An analysis of these measures must consider their intrinsic correlation. In the context of an individual participant data meta-analysis, heterogeneity is one of the main components of the analysis. When using a random-effects meta-analytic model, prediction regions provide deeper insight into the effect of heterogeneity on the variability of estimated accuracy measures across the entire studied population, not just the average. This study aimed to investigate heterogeneity via prediction regions in an individual participant data meta-analysis of the sensitivity and specificity of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 for screening to detect major depression. From the total number of studies in the pool, four dates were selected containing roughly 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the total number of participants. A bivariate random-effects model was fitted to studies up to and including each of these dates to jointly estimate sensitivity and specificity. Two-dimensional prediction regions were plotted in ROC-space. Subgroup analyses were carried out on sex and age, regardless of the date of the study. The dataset comprised 17,436 participants from 58 primary studies of which 2322 (13.3%) presented cases of major depression. Point estimates of sensitivity and specificity did not differ importantly as more studies were added to the model. However, correlation of the measures increased. As expected, standard errors of the logit pooled TPR and FPR consistently decreased as more studies were used, while standard deviations of the random-effects did not decrease monotonically. Subgroup analysis by sex did not reveal important contributions for observed heterogeneity; however, the shape of the prediction regions differed. Subgroup analysis by age did not reveal meaningful contributions to the heterogeneity and the prediction regions were similar in shape. Prediction intervals and regions reveal previously unseen trends in a dataset. In the context of a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy, prediction regions can display the range of accuracy measures in different populations and settings.

Prevalence estimates of major depressive disorder in 27 European countries from the European Health Interview Survey: accounting for imperfect diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-8.

BACKGROUND: Cut-offs on self-report depression screening tools are designed to identify many more people than those who meet criteria for major depressive disorder. In a recent analysis of the European Health Interview Survey (EHIS), the percentage of participants with Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (PHQ-8) scores ≥10 was reported as major depression prevalence. OBJECTIVE: We used a Bayesian framework to re-analyse EHIS PHQ-8 data, accounting for the imperfect diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-8. METHODS: The EHIS is a cross-sectional, population-based survey in 27 countries across Europe with 258 888 participants from the general population. We incorporated evidence from a comprehensive individual participant data meta-analysis on the accuracy of the PHQ-8 cut-off of ≥10. We evaluated the joint posterior distribution to estimate the major depression prevalence, prevalence differences between countries and compared with previous EHIS results. FINDINGS: Overall, major depression prevalence was 2.1% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.0% to 3.8%). Mean posterior prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% (0.0% to 1.9%) in the Czech Republic to 4.2% (0.2% to 11.3%) in Iceland. Accounting for the imperfect diagnostic accuracy resulted in insufficient power to establish prevalence differences. 76.4% (38.0% to 96.0%) of observed positive tests were estimated to be false positives. Prevalence was lower than the 6.4% (95% CI 6.2% to 6.5%) estimated previously. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence estimation needs to account for imperfect diagnostic accuracy. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: Major depression prevalence in European countries is likely lower than previously reported on the basis of the EHIS survey.

Comparison of mental health symptoms before and during the covid-19 pandemic: evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis of 134 cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To synthesise results of mental health outcomes in cohorts before and during the covid-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Embase, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang, medRxiv, and Open Science Framework Preprints. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Studies comparing general mental health, anxiety symptoms, or depression symptoms assessed from 1 January 2020 or later with outcomes collected from 1 January 2018 to 31 December 2019 in any population, and comprising ≥90% of the same participants before and during the covid-19 pandemic or using statistical methods to account for missing data. Restricted maximum likelihood random effects meta-analyses (worse covid-19 outcomes representing positive change) were performed. Risk of bias was assessed using an adapted Joanna Briggs Institute Checklist for Prevalence Studies. RESULTS: As of 11 April 2022, 94 411 unique titles and abstracts including 137 unique studies from 134 cohorts were reviewed. Most of the studies were from high income (n=105, 77%) or upper middle income (n=28, 20%) countries. Among general population studies, no changes were found for general mental health (standardised mean difference (SMD)change 0.11, 95% confidence interval -0.00 to 0.22) or anxiety symptoms (0.05, -0.04 to 0.13), but depression symptoms worsened minimally (0.12, 0.01 to 0.24). Among women or female participants, general mental health (0.22, 0.08 to 0.35), anxiety symptoms (0.20, 0.12 to 0.29), and depression symptoms (0.22, 0.05 to 0.40) worsened by minimal to small amounts. In 27 other analyses across outcome domains among subgroups other than women or female participants, five analyses suggested that symptoms worsened by minimal or small amounts, and two suggested minimal or small improvements. No other subgroup experienced changes across all outcome domains. In three studies with data from March to April 2020 and late 2020, symptoms were unchanged from pre-covid-19 levels at both assessments or increased initially then returned to pre-covid-19 levels. Substantial heterogeneity and risk of bias were present across analyses. CONCLUSIONS: High risk of bias in many studies and substantial heterogeneity suggest caution in interpreting results. Nonetheless, most symptom change estimates for general mental health, anxiety symptoms, and depression symptoms were close to zero and not statistically significant, and significant changes were of minimal to small magnitudes. Small negative changes occurred for women or female participants in all domains. The authors will update the results of this systematic review as more evidence accrues, with study results posted online (https://www.depressd.ca/covid-19-mental-health). REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42020179703.

Individual participant data meta-analysis to compare EPDS accuracy to detect major depression with and without the self-harm item.

Item 10 of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) is intended to assess thoughts of intentional self-harm but may also elicit concerns about accidental self-harm. It does not specifically address suicide ideation but, nonetheless, is sometimes used as an indicator of suicidality. The 9-item version of the EPDS (EPDS-9), which omits item 10, is sometimes used in research due to concern about positive endorsements of item 10 and necessary follow-up. We assessed the equivalence of total score correlations and screening accuracy to detect major depression using the EPDS-9 versus full EPDS among pregnant and postpartum women. We searched Medline, Medline In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, PsycINFO, and Web of Science from database inception to October 3, 2018 for studies that administered the EPDS and conducted diagnostic classification for major depression based on a validated semi-structured or fully structured interview among women aged 18 or older during pregnancy or within 12 months of giving birth. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis. We calculated Pearson correlations with 95% prediction interval (PI) between EPDS-9 and full EPDS total scores using a random effects model. Bivariate random-effects models were fitted to assess screening accuracy. Equivalence tests were done by comparing the confidence intervals (CIs) around the pooled sensitivity and specificity differences to the equivalence margin of δ = 0.05. Individual participant data were obtained from 41 eligible studies (10,906 participants, 1407 major depression cases). The correlation between EPDS-9 and full EPDS scores was 0.998 (95% PI 0.991, 0.999). For sensitivity, the EPDS-9 and full EPDS were equivalent for cut-offs 7-12 (difference range - 0.02, 0.01) and the equivalence was indeterminate for cut-offs 13-15 (all differences - 0.04). For specificity, the EPDS-9 and full EPDS were equivalent for all cut-offs (difference range 0.00, 0.01). The EPDS-9 performs similarly to the full EPDS and can be used when there are concerns about the implications of administering EPDS item 10.Trial registration: The original IPDMA was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42015024785).