Severe morbidity after antiretroviral (ART) initiation: active surveillance in HIV care programs, the IeDEA West Africa collaboration.

BACKGROUND: The causes of severe morbidity in health facilities implementing Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) programmes are poorly documented in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to describe severe morbidity among HIV-infected patients after ART initiation, based on data from an active surveillance system established within a network of specialized care facilities in West African cities. METHODS: Within the International epidemiological Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)--West Africa collaboration, we conducted a prospective, multicenter data collection that involved two facilities in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire and one in Cotonou, Benin. Among HIV-infected adults receiving ART, events were recorded using a standardized form. A simple case-definition of severe morbidity (death, hospitalization, fever>38°5C, Karnofsky index<70%) was used at any patient contact point. Then a physician confirmed and classified the event as WHO stage 3 or 4 according to the WHO clinical classification or as degree 3 or 4 of the ANRS scale. RESULTS: From December 2009 to December 2011, 978 adults (71% women, median age 39 years) presented with 1449 severe events. The main diagnoses were: non-AIDS-defining infections (33%), AIDS-defining illnesses (33%), suspected adverse drug reactions (7%), other illnesses (4%) and syndromic diagnoses (16%). The most common specific diagnoses were: malaria (25%), pneumonia (13%) and tuberculosis (8%). The diagnoses were reported as syndromic in one out of five events recorded during this study. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the ongoing importance of conventional infectious diseases among severe morbid events occurring in patients on ART in ambulatory HIV care facilities in West Africa. Meanwhile, additional studies are needed due to the undiagnosed aspect of severe morbidity in substantial proportion.

Reasons for hospitalization in HIV-infected children in West Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Current knowledge on morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected children comes from data collected in specific research programmes, which may offer a different standard of care compared to routine care. We described hospitalization data within a large observational cohort of HIV-infected children in West Africa (IeDEA West Africa collaboration). METHODS: We performed a six-month prospective multicentre survey from April to October 2010 in five HIV-specialized paediatric hospital wards in Ouagadougou, Accra, Cotonou, Dakar and Bamako. Baseline and follow-up data during hospitalization were recorded using a standardized clinical form, and extracted from hospitalization files and local databases. Event validation committees reviewed diagnoses within each centre. HIV-related events were defined according to the WHO definitions. RESULTS: From April to October 2010, 155 HIV-infected children were hospitalized; median age was 3 years [1-8]. Among them, 90 (58%) were confirmed for HIV infection during their stay; 138 (89%) were already receiving cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and 64 children (40%) had initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). The median length of stay was 13 days (IQR: 7-23); 25 children (16%) died during hospitalization and four (3%) were transferred out. The leading causes of hospitalization were WHO stage 3 opportunistic infections (37%), non-AIDS-defining events (28%), cachexia and other WHO stage 4 events (25%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, most causes of hospitalizations were HIV related but one hospitalization in three was caused by a non-AIDS-defining event, mostly in children on ART. HIV-related fatality is also high despite the scaling-up of access to ART in resource-limited settings.

Impact of risk factors for specific causes of death in the first and subsequent years of antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND: Patterns of cause-specific mortality in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are changing dramatically in the era of antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: Sixteen cohorts from Europe and North America contributed data on adult patients followed from the start of ART. Procedures for coding causes of death were standardized. Estimated hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for transmission risk group, sex, age, year of ART initiation, baseline CD4 count, viral load, and AIDS status, before and after the first year of ART. RESULTS: A total of 4237 of 65 121 (6.5%) patients died (median, 4.5 years follow-up). Rates of AIDS death decreased substantially with time since starting ART, but mortality from non-AIDS malignancy increased (rate ratio, 1.04 per year; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-1.1). Higher mortality in men than women during the first year of ART was mostly due to non-AIDS malignancy and liver-related deaths. Associations with age were strongest for cardiovascular disease, heart/vascular, and malignancy deaths. Patients with presumed transmission through injection drug use had higher rates of all causes of death, particularly for liver-related causes (HRs compared with men who have sex with men: 18.1 [95% CI, 6.2-52.7] during the first year of ART and 9.1 [95% CI, 5.8-14.2] thereafter). There was a persistent role of CD4 count at baseline and at 12 months in predicting AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and non-AIDS malignancy deaths. Lack of viral suppression on ART was associated with AIDS, non-AIDS infection, and other causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: Better understanding of patterns of and risk factors for cause-specific mortality in the ART era can aid in development of appropriate care for HIV-infected individuals and inform guidelines for risk factor management.

Disease patterns and causes of death of hospitalized HIV-positive adults in West Africa: a multicountry survey in the antiretroviral treatment era.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe the morbidity and mortality patterns in HIV-positive adults hospitalized in West Africa. METHOD: We conducted a six-month prospective multicentre survey within the IeDEA West Africa collaboration in six adult medical wards of teaching hospitals in Abidjan, Ouagadougou, Cotonou, Dakar and Bamako. From April to October 2010, all newly hospitalized HIV-positive patients were eligible. Baseline and follow-up information until hospital discharge was recorded using standardized forms. Diagnoses were reviewed by a local event validation committee using reference definitions. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were studied with a logistic regression model. RESULTS: Among 823 hospitalized HIV-positive adults (median age 40 years, 58% women), 24% discovered their HIV infection during the hospitalization, median CD4 count was 75/mm(3) (IQR: 25-177) and 48% had previously received antiretroviral treatment (ART). The underlying causes of hospitalization were AIDS-defining conditions (54%), other infections (32%), other diseases (8%) and non-specific illness (6%). The most frequent diseases diagnosed were: tuberculosis (29%), pneumonia (15%), malaria (10%) and cerebral toxoplasmosis (10%). Overall, 315 (38%) patients died during hospitalization and the underlying cause of death was AIDS (63%), non-AIDS-defining infections (26%), other diseases (7%) and non-specific illness or unknown cause (4%). Among them, the most frequent fatal diseases were: tuberculosis (36%), cerebral toxoplasmosis (10%), cryptococcosis (9%) and sepsis (7%). Older age, clinical WHO stage 3 and 4, low CD4 count, and AIDS-defining infectious diagnoses were associated with hospital fatality. CONCLUSIONS: AIDS-defining conditions, primarily tuberculosis, and bacterial infections were the most frequent causes of hospitalization in HIV-positive adults in West Africa and resulted in high in-hospital fatality. Sustained efforts are needed to integrate care of these disease conditions and optimize earlier diagnosis of HIV infection and initiation of ART.

Incidence of serious morbidity in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in a West African care centre, 2003-2008.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited settings, scaling-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) has required the involvement of decentralized health facilities with limited equipment. We estimated the incidence of serious morbidity among HIV-infected adults receiving ART in one of these HIV routine care center in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study at the Centre Medical de Suivi des Donneurs de Sang (CMSDS), which is affiliated with the National Centre for Blood Transfusion in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Adult patients infected with HIV-1 or HIV-1/HIV-2 who initiated ART between January 2003 and December 2008 were eligible for the study. Standardized clinical data were collected at each visit. Serious morbidity was defined as a new episode of malaria, WHO stage 3-4 event, ANRS grade 3-4 adverse event, or any event leading to death or to hospitalization. RESULTS: 1008 adults, 67% women, with a median age of 35 years, and a median pre-ART CD4 count of 186/mm3 started ART and were followed for a median of 17.3 months. The overall incidences of loss to follow-up, death, and attrition were 6.2/100 person-years (PY) [95% CI 5.1-7.2], 2.3/100 PY [95% CI 1.6-2.9], and 8.1/100 PY [95% CI 7.0-9.4], respectively. The incidence of first serious event was 11.5/100 PY overall, 15.9/100 PY within the first year and 8.3/100 PY thereafter. The most frequently documented specific diagnoses were malaria, tuberculosis, bacterial septicemia and bacterial pneumonia. CONCLUSION: Among HIV-infected adults followed in routine conditions in a West African primary care clinic, we recorded a high incidence of serious morbidity during the first year on ART. Providing care centers with diagnostic tools and standardizing data collection are necessary steps to improve the quality of care in primary care facilities in sub-Saharan Africa.

Tuberculosis in antiretroviral treatment programs in lower income countries: availability and use of diagnostics and screening.

OBJECTIVES: In resource-constrained settings, tuberculosis (TB) is a common opportunistic infection and cause of death in HIV-infected persons. TB may be present at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but it is often under-diagnosed. We describe approaches to TB diagnosis and screening of TB in ART programs in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We surveyed ART programs treating HIV-infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America in 2012 using online questionnaires to collect program-level and patient-level data. Forty-seven sites from 26 countries participated. Patient-level data were collected on 987 adult TB patients from 40 sites (median age 34.7 years; 54% female). Sputum smear microscopy and chest radiograph were available in 47 (100%) sites, TB culture in 44 (94%), and Xpert MTB/RIF in 23 (49%). Xpert MTB/RIF was rarely available in Central Africa and South America. In sites with access to these diagnostics, microscopy was used in 745 (76%) patients diagnosed with TB, culture in 220 (24%), and chest X-ray in 688 (70%) patients. When free of charge culture was done in 27% of patients, compared to 21% when there was a fee (p = 0.033). Corresponding percentages for Xpert MTB/RIF were 26% and 15% of patients (p = 0.001). Screening practices for active disease before starting ART included symptom screening (46 sites, 98%), chest X-ray (38, 81%), sputum microscopy (37, 79%), culture (16, 34%), and Xpert MTB/RIF (5, 11%). CONCLUSIONS: Mycobacterial culture was infrequently used despite its availability at most sites, while Xpert MTB/RIF was not generally available. Use of available diagnostics was higher when offered free of charge.

Mortality, AIDS-morbidity, and loss to follow-up by current CD4 cell count among HIV-1-infected adults receiving antiretroviral therapy in Africa and Asia: data from the ANRS 12222 collaboration.

BACKGROUND: In resource-limited countries, estimating CD4-specific incidence rates of mortality and morbidity among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) may help assess the effectiveness of care and treatment programmes, identify program weaknesses, and inform decisions. METHODS: We pooled data from 13 research cohorts in 5 sub-Saharan African (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal) and 2 Asian (Cambodia and Laos) countries. HIV-infected adults (18 years and older) who received ART in 1998-2008 and had at least one CD4 count available were eligible. Changes in CD4 counts over time were estimated by a linear mixed regression. CD4-specific incidence rates were estimated as the number of first events occurring in a given CD4 stratum divided by the time spent within the stratum. RESULTS: Overall 3917 adults (62% women) on ART were followed up during 10,154 person-years. In the ≤ 50, 51-100, 101-200, 201-350, 351-500, 501-650, and >650 cells/mm CD4 cells strata, death rates were 20.6, 11.8, 6.7, 3.3, 1.8, 0.9, and 0.3 per 100 person-years; AIDS rates were 50.5, 32.9, 11.5, 4.8, 2.8, 2.2, and 2.2 per 100 person-years; and loss-to-follow-up rates were 4.9, 6.1, 3.5, 3.1, 2.9, 1.7, and 1.2 per 100 person-years, respectively. Mortality and morbidity were higher during the first year after ART initiation. CONCLUSIONS: In these resource-limited settings, death and AIDS rates remained substantial after ART initiation, even in individuals with high CD4 cell counts. Ensuring earlier ART initiation and optimizing case finding and treatment for AIDS-defining diseases should be seen as priorities.

Morbidity after antiretroviral therapy initiation in HIV-1-infected children in West Africa: temporal trends and relation to CD4 count.

BACKGROUND: Although 90% of HIV-1-infected children live in sub-Saharan Africa, morbidity data after highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation in these settings are limited. The objective of this study was to document the incidence of AIDS-defining events and non-AIDS-defining diseases in African children receiving HAART. METHODS: Incidences rates (IRs) of AIDS-defining events and 10 other common diseases were estimated overall and by current CD4-strata (<15%, 15 - <25% and ≥25%) from 2 prospective cohorts of African children. RESULTS: One hundred eighty-eight children contributing to 355 children-years were included. The documented morbidity IRs per 100 children-years were upper respiratory infections, 100 (87-114); infectious diarrhea, 37 (31-44); World Health Organization (WHO) stage 2 events, 22.9 (18.2-28.1); and WHO stage 3/4 events, 12.3 (9.1-16.7). IRs of WHO stage 2 events, severe bacterial infections, infectious diarrhea and pneumonia decreased linearly across all CD4%-strata, whereas WHO stage 3/4 events and viral infections occurred mostly when CD4% <15%. Overall, IRs decreased during the first 2 years on HAART except for upper respiratory infection, mycosis and oral candidiasis. CONCLUSION: This incidence of AIDS- and non-AIDS-defining diseases declined substantially after HAART in 2 African cohorts, although estimates remained high compared with high-resource settings. Without renewed efforts to increase antiretroviral scale-up, children in developing countries will continue to have a high burden of infections.

All-cause and liver-related mortality in HIV positive subjects compared to the general population: differences by HCV co-infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We aimed at comparing overall and liver-related mortality rates, observed in HIV positive subjects followed-up in the Cohorts of Spanish Network on HIV/AIDS Research stratified by HCV co-infection status, with the expected mortality of the general population of same age and sex in Spain, for the period 1997 - 2008. METHODS: We estimated standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and excess mortality, comparing death rates from our cohort (globally and by HCV co-infection) with death rates from the general population standardized by sex in 5 year-age bands. RESULTS: Overall, 5914 HIV positive subjects were included, 37.3% of which were co-infected with HCV; 231 deaths occurred, 10.4% of which were liver-related. SMR for all causes mortality for the HIV positive subjects was 5.6 (CI 95% 4.9-6.4), 2.4 (1.9-3.1) for HCV negative subjects and 11.5 (9.9-13.4) for HCV positive ones. Having HCV co-infection and AIDS yielded an SMR of 20.8 (16.5-26.1) and having AIDS and being HCV negative had an SMR of 4.8 (3.5-6.7). SMR for liver-related mortality was 1.8 (0.6-5.7) for HCV negative subjects vs. 22.4 (14.6-34.3) for HCV positive ones. Overall, both mortality rates as SMR and excess mortality rates were higher for injecting drug users (IDUs) than men having sex with men (MSM) and heterosexuals, patients with AIDS, with and without cART and for subjects included between 1997 and 2003. CONCLUSIONS: There was an excess of all-cause and liver-related mortality in our cohorts compared with the general population. Furthermore, HCV co-infection in HIV positive patients increased the risk of death for both all causes and liver-related causes.

All-cause mortality in treated HIV-infected adults with CD4 ≥500/mm3 compared with the general population: evidence from a large European observational cohort collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Using data from a large European collaborative study, we aimed to identify the circumstances in which treated HIV-infected individuals will experience similar mortality rates to those of the general population. METHODS: Adults were eligible if they initiated combination anti-retroviral treatment (cART) between 1998 and 2008 and had one prior CD4 measurement within 6 months. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and excess mortality rates compared with the general population were estimated using Poisson regression. Periods of follow-up were classified according to the current CD4 count. RESULTS: Of the 80 642 individuals, 70% were men, 16% were injecting drug users (IDUs), the median age was 37 years, median CD4 count 225/mm(3) at cART initiation and median follow-up was 3.5 years. The overall mortality rate was 1.2/100 person-years (PY) (men: 1.3, women: 0.9), 4.2 times as high as that in the general population (SMR for men: 3.8, for women: 7.4). Among 35 316 individuals with a CD4 count ≥500/mm(3), the mortality rate was 0.37/100 PY (SMR 1.5); mortality rates were similar to those of the general population in non-IDU men [SMR 0.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.7-1.3] and, after 3 years, in women (SMR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.7). Mortality rates in IDUs remained elevated, though a trend to decrease with longer durations with high CD4 count was seen. A prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality patterns in most non-IDU HIV-infected individuals with high CD4 counts on cART are similar to those in the general population. The persistent role of a prior AIDS diagnosis underlines the importance of early diagnosis of HIV infection.

Differences in HIV natural history among African and non-African seroconverters in Europe and seroconverters in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: It is unknown whether HIV treatment guidelines, based on resource-rich country cohorts, are applicable to African populations. METHODS: We estimated CD4 cell loss in ART-naïve, AIDS-free individuals using mixed models allowing for random intercept and slope, and time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS, death and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation by survival methods. Using CASCADE data from 20 European and 3 sub-Saharan African (SSA) cohorts of heterosexually-infected individuals, aged ≥15 years, infected ≥2000, we compared estimates between non-African Europeans, Africans in Europe, and Africans in SSA. RESULTS: Of 1,959 (913 non-Africans, 302 Europeans-African origin, 744 SSA), two-thirds were female; median age at seroconversion was 31 years. Individuals in SSA progressed faster to clinical AIDS but not to death or non-TB AIDS. They also initiated ART later than Europeans and at lower CD4 cell counts. In adjusted models, Africans (especially from Europe) had lower CD4 counts at seroconversion and slower CD4 decline than non-African Europeans. Median (95% CI) CD4 count at seroconversion for a 15-29 year old woman was 607 (588-627) (non-African European), 469 (442-497) (European-African origin) and 570 (551-589) (SSA) cells/µL with respective CD4 decline during the first 4 years of 259 (228-289), 155 (110-200), and 199 (174-224) cells/µL (p<0.01). DISCUSSION: Despite differences in CD4 cell count evolution, death and non-TB AIDS rates were similar across study groups. It is therefore prudent to apply current ART guidelines from resource-rich countries to African populations.

AIDS and non-AIDS morbidity and mortality across the spectrum of CD4 cell counts in HIV-infected adults before starting antiretroviral therapy in Cote d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: In Western Europe, North America, and Australia, large cohort collaborations have been able to estimate the short-term CD4 cell count-specific risk of AIDS or death in untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults with high CD4 cell counts. In sub-Saharan Africa, these CD4 cell count-specific estimates are scarce. METHODS: From 1996 through 2006, we followed up 2 research cohorts of HIV-infected adults in Côte d'Ivoire. This included follow-up off antiretroviral therapy (ART) across the entire spectrum of CD4 cell counts before the ART era, and only in patients with CD4 cell counts >200 cells/µL once ART became available. Data were censored at ART initiation. We modeled the CD4 cell count decrease using an adjusted linear mixed model. CD4 cell count-specific rates of events were obtained by dividing the number of first events occurring in a given CD4 cell count stratum by the time spent in that stratum. RESULTS: Eight hundred sixty patients were followed off ART over 2789 person-years (PY). In the ≥650, 500-649, 350-499, 200-349, 100-199, 50-99, and 0-49 cells/µL CD4 cell count strata, the rates of AIDS or death were 0.9, 1.7, 3.7, 10.4, 30.9, 60.8, and 99.9 events per 100 PY, respectively. In patients with CD4 cell counts ≥200 CD4 cells/µL, the most frequent AIDS-defining disease was tuberculosis (decreasing from 4.0 to 0.6 events per 100 PY for 200-349 and ≥650 cells/µL, respectively), and the most frequent HIV non-AIDS severe diseases were visceral bacterial diseases (decreasing from 9.1 to 3.6 events per 100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: Rates of AIDS or death, tuberculosis, and invasive bacterial diseases are substantial in patients with CD4 cell counts ≥200 cells/µL. Tuberculosis and bacterial diseases should be the most important outcomes in future trials of early ART in sub-Saharan Africa.

CD4-specific mortality rates among HIV-infected adults with high CD4 counts and no antiretroviral treatment in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: CD4-specific rates of mortality in sub-Saharan African adults with high CD4 counts have rarely been estimated. This estimation is useful to the when to start antiretroviral treatment (ART) debate. METHODS: We pooled data from National Agency for Research on AIDS and Viral Hepatitis (ANRS)-funded research cohorts or associated partners in West Africa. All HIV-infected adults (≥18 years) with available follow-up time off ART were eligible. We used a joint model to estimate CD4 count evolution. We estimated CD4-specific rates of mortality, loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) and ART initiation by dividing the number of first event by the follow-up time off ART within each CD4 category. RESULTS: Between 1996 and 2009, 2588 adults (80% women) from 5 cohorts in Cote d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso were followed off ART during 6862 person-years. In the 201-350, 351-500, 501-650, and >650 cells per cubic millimeter CD4 categories, mortality rates were: 3.0, 1.5, 0.4, 0.2 per 100 person-years; LTFU rates: 6.0, 4.6, 6.1, 6.0 per 100 person-years; and ART initiation rates: 18.1, 2.7, 0.5, 0.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. All estimates varied across cohorts; mortality rates were higher when rates of LFTU and ART initiation were lower; LTFU rates were 2-40 times higher than mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Among untreated West African adults with high CD4 counts, mortality and LTFU rates were substantial. Even when data are collected under research conditions, informative censoring due to ART initiation and LTFU could lead to significantly underestimate mortality figures.

The Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) Project: initial results and evaluation of methodology.

BACKGROUND: The Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe) Project aims to deliver a standardized method for coding the underlying cause of death in HIV-positive persons, suitable for clinical trials and epidemiologic studies. METHODS: The project incorporates detailed data collection, a classification system, and a centralized adjudication process performed by 2 independent reviewers. The methodology was tested in the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study , and independent reviews of causes of death were compared. Logistic regression models identified factors associated with initial agreement by reviewers on underlying cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 491 reported fatal cases were adjudicated; in only 5% of cases the cause of death remained undetermined after adjudication. Reviewers initially agreed on the underlying cause for 339 (69%) deaths. As compared with deaths due to AIDS-related causes, the odds of agreement were more than 80% lower when deaths were ultimately deemed to be due to non-AIDS-related causes (odds ratio = 0.17 [95% confidence interval = 0.08-0.37]) or undetermined causes (0.11 [0.04-0.36]). The odds of initial agreement were also lower for deaths occurring in subjects with hypertension (0.43 [0.22-0.85]) and depression (0.43 [0.23-0.80]). CONCLUSIONS: The extent and format of data collected in the CoDe Project appear to be sufficient for an informed review, and the proposed coding scheme is adequate for obtaining an underlying cause of death.

CD4 cell eligibility thresholds: an analysis of the time to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1 seroconverters.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends initiating combination antiretroviral treatment at the minimal CD4 cell threshold of 350 cells/µl. In sub-Saharan Africa, the time for a recently infected patient to reach this threshold is unclear. METHOD: We estimated the probability of reaching different CD4 cell thresholds over time in the ANRS 1220 cohort of HIV-1 seroconverters in Côte d'Ivoire. CD4 cell slopes were estimated using a mixed linear model. Probabilities of crossing the 350 and 500 cells/µl CD4 cell thresholds were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2009, 304 recent seroconverters have been enrolled in the Primo-CI cohort (62% men, median baseline age 29 years and median time since the estimated date of seroconversion 9 months). The probability of having a first CD4 cell count below 500 cells/µl was 0.57, 0.72, 0.79 and 0.84 at study entry, 2, 4 and 6 years, respectively. For a first CD4 cell count below 350 cells/µl, these figures were 0.29, 0.40, 0.55 and 0.67. The time for 75% of patients to reach the threshold was 3.0 years for 500 cells/µl and 7.0 years for 350 cells/µl.

Derivation of parameters used in Spectrum for eligibility for antiretroviral therapy and survival on antiretroviral therapy.

BACKGROUND: The Spectrum projection package uses estimates of national HIV incidence, demographic data and other assumptions to describe the consequences of the HIV epidemic in low and middle-income countries. The default parameters used in Spectrum are updated every 2 years as new evidence becomes available to inform the model. This paper reviews the default parameters that define the course of HIV progression among adults and children in Spectrum. METHODS: For adults, data available from published and grey literature and data from the ART-LINC International epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration were combined to estimate survival among those who started antiretroviral therapy (ART). For children, a review of published material on survival on ART and survival on ART and cotrimoxazole was used to derive survival probabilities. Historical data on the distribution of CD4 cell counts and CD4 cell percentages by age among children who were not treated (before treatment was available) were used to progress children from seroconversion to different CD4 cell levels. RESULTS: Based on the updated evidence estimated survival among adults aged over 15 years in the first year on ART was 86%, while in subsequent years survival was estimated at 90%. Survival among children during the first year on ART was estimated to be 85% and for subsequent years 93%. DISCUSSION: The revised default parameters based on additional data will make Spectrum estimates more accurate than previous rounds of estimates.

Short communication: Severe symptomatic hyperlactatemia among HIV type 1-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy in Côte d'Ivoire.

Stavudine is no longer recommended for use in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), but it remains in high demand worldwide because it is affordable. We report the clinical presentation and incidence of severe hyperlactatemia (SL) in HIV-infected adults who initiated ART between April 2005 and May 2009 in Côte d'Ivoire, West Africa. In a prospective cohort study at the HIV care center affiliated with the National Centre for Blood Transfusion, we used standardized forms to record baseline and follow-up data. We measured serum lactate levels for all adults on ART who showed signs of hyperlactatemia. SL was defined as serum lactate >2.5 mmol/liter. Overall, 806 adults initiated ART. Among the 591 patients (73%) on stavudine-containing regimens, 394 were women (67%); the median pre-ART CD4 count was 150/mm3 and the median body mass index was 20.9 kg/m2. These patients were followed for a median of 28 months. We detected SL only among patients taking stavudine. The incidence of SL was 0.55/100 person-years (PY) (95% CI 0.47-0.63) overall and 0.85/100 PY among women (95% CI 0.75-0.95). Among the eight patients with SL, 100% lost >9% of body weight before diagnosis, 100% had serum lactate >4 mmol/liter (range 4.2-12.1), 50% had pre-ART BMI >25 kg/m2, and three patients died (38%), accounting for 6.4% of deaths among patients taking stavudine. As long as HIV clinicians continue to use stavudine in sub-Saharan Africa, they should watch out for acute unexplained weight loss in patients taking ART, particularly among women and patients with high pre-ART BMI.

Low retention of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in 11 clinical centres in West Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To study factors associated with the probability of retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in West Africa. METHODS: The International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) in West Africa is a prospective, operational, observational cohort study based on collaboration between 11 cohorts of HIV-infected adult patients in Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Mali and Senegal. All patients aged 16 and older at ART initiation, with documented gender and date of ART initiation, were included. For those with at least 1 day of follow-up, Kaplan-Meier method and Weibull regression model were used to estimate the 12-month probability of retention in care and the associated factors. RESULTS: In this data merger, 14 352 patients (61% female) on ART were included. Median age was 37 (interquartile range (IQR): 31-44 years) and median CD4 count at baseline was 131 cells/mm(3) (IQR: 48-221 cells/mm(3)). The first-line regimen was NNRTI-based for 78% of patients, protease inhibitor-based for 17%, and three NRTIs for 3%. The probability of retention was 0.90 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-0.90] at 3 months, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.83-0.85) at 6 months and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.75-0.77) at 12 months. The probability of retention in care was lower in patients with baseline CD4 count <50 cells/mm(3) [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.27-1.49; P < 0.0001] (reference CD4 > 200 cells/mm(3), in men (aHR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10-1.24; P = 0.0002), in younger patients (<30 years) (aHR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03-1.19; P = 0.01) and in patients with low haemoglobinaemia <8 g/dl (aHR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.21-1.45; P < 0.0001). Availability of funds for systematic tracing was associated with better retention (aHR = 0.29; 95% CI: 0.16-0.55; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Close follow-up, promoting early access to care and ART and a decentralized system of care may improve the retention in care of HIV-infected patients on ART.

Comparison of early CD4 T-cell count in HIV-1 seroconverters in Côte d'Ivoire and France: the ANRS PRIMO-CI and SEROCO cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: We compared CD4+ decline among untreated HIV-1-infected seroconverters living in Côte d'Ivoire (CI) and in France. METHODS: HIV-1-infected adults were enrolled in the ANRS1220 PRIMO-CI (CI, 1997-2006) and ANRSCO2 SEROCO (France, 1988-1995) cohorts. CD4+ count and percentage declines were estimated from enrollment until 24 months of seroconversion by linear random-effect models adjusted for time since seroconversion, age, gender, cell-associated HIV DNA, HIV RNA, and country. RESULTS: Overall 521 seroconverters (CI 148, 62% men; France 373, 77% men) were enrolled after a median of 7.6 months since seroconversion. Median follow-up duration was 12.7 months. Median age was 28 years. Median baseline CD4+ count was 472 and 560 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively. Median baseline HIV RNA was 4.4 and 4.0 log10 copies per milliliter and median HIV DNA was 3.0 and 2.8 log10 copies per 10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells, respectively. In adjusted models, CD4+ count and percentage at baseline were lower in CI than in France (P < 0.01), and the difference did not vary during follow-up (P = 0.55). Low HIV RNA and low HIV DNA at baseline were associated with higher CD4+ count at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: CD4+ count and percentage were lower in CI than in France. These differences were already observed during early infection and remained similar after adjustment.

Causes of death in HIV-infected women: persistent role of AIDS. The 'Mortalité 2000 & 2005' Surveys (ANRS EN19).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the causes of death in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: In the French nationwide Mortalité 2000 and 2005 surveys, physicians reported causes of deaths in HIV-infected adults in 2000 and 2005, using a standardized questionnaire. We used multivariate logistic regression models to study the association between gender and AIDS-defining causes of death, adjusting for other characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 1013 HIV-infected adults who died in 2005, 247 (24%) were women. Half of women were infected through heterosexual contacts, compared with 25% men. In 2005, the proportion of AIDS-defining causes of death was higher in women than in men (43 vs 34%; P = 0.01), whereas it had been the same in 2000 (47% in women and men). In 2005, women died less frequently than men from respiratory malignancies (lung, ear/nose/throat) and cardiovascular disease (9% of all causes of death in women compared with 16% in men; P = 0.004), and suicides or accidents (4 vs 9%; P = 0.02). Socio-economic precariousness, younger age, less alcohol and tobacco consumption and lack of prior ART explained the higher proportion of deaths from AIDS in women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: The higher proportion of AIDS-related deaths in women is probably explained by two factors: (i) some HIV-infected women, especially migrants in poor socio-economic conditions, may not have access to optimal care; and (ii) a lower prevalence of risk factors for respiratory, cardiovascular and violent deaths means that the risk of dying from non-AIDS causes may be lower in women.