Predictors of acute cardiovascular events following acute exacerbation period for patients with COPD: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: It has been noted that there is an increase in the incidence of acute cardiovascular events (CVEs) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) during an acute exacerbation (AE), thereby causing increased inpatient mortality. Thus, we have tried to identify predictors of acute CVEs in patients with AECOPD via a nested case-control study. METHODS: A total of 496 cases hospitalized for AECOPD were included in this study, and followed-up for up to 6 months after discharge. Acute CVEs in the AE period were defined as a new or worsening acute coronary syndrome (ACS), arrhythmia, or left ventricular disfunction (LVD). Predictors of CVEs were selected from several variables, including baseline characteristics and treatments in the stable period as well as symptoms, laboratory tests, complications and treatments in the AE period. RESULTS: Thirty cases (6.05%) had acute CVEs, namely 2 had ACS, 13 had LVD and 19 experienced some form of arrhythmia. Four deaths were observed in the CVE group, with significantly increased death risk compared with the non-CVE group (P = 0.001, OR = 5.81). Moreover, patients who had CVEs were more prone to have re-exacerbation within 3 months. Multivariate analysis showed that previous LVD history (P = 0.004, OR = 5.06), 20% increase in heart rate (HR) (P = 0.003, OR = 10.19), electrolyte disturbance (P = 0.01, OR = 4.24) and diuretics (P = 0.002, OR = 6.37) were independent predictors of CVEs. In addition, usage of theophylline, fluoroquinolone and inhaled beta agonists in the AE period were not statistically associated with acute CVEs. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary study indicates that patients hospitalized for AECOPD with previous LVD history or increased HR need close observation and diuretics should be cautiously used with regular electrolyte monitoring. These findings need to be confirmed in a large cohort.

Development of a Nomogram to Predict the Risk of 30-Day Re-Exacerbation for Patients Hospitalized for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

Acute exacerbation (AE) is the main cause of increased disability and mortality for patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Short-term re-exacerbation after discharge is common for in-hospital patients with AECOPD. Thus, we aimed to design a scoring system to effectively predict the 30-day re-exacerbation using simple and easily accessible variables. We retrospectively enrolled 686 cases hospitalized for AECOPD in two Chinese hospitals from 2005 to 2017. A variety of parameters were collected like demographics, clinical manifestations and treatments in stable and AE period. The optimal subset of covariates in the multivariate logistic analysis was identified by the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and was further used to develop a practical and reliable nomogram to predict the 30-day re-exacerbation. The efficacy of the nomogram was internally validated by concordance index (C-index) and a calibration plot. The incidence of 30-day re-exacerbation was 15.8%. Based on the smallest AIC, eight easily-accessible parameters were included in the nomogram, including sex, COPD assessment test (CAT) scores, AE with respiratory failure in the previous year, new purulent sputum, new cardiovascular events, combined antibiotic therapy, theophylline therapy for AE and ICU admission. Our nomogram revealed good discriminative ability with the C-index of 0.702. The calibration curve showed good agreement between nomogram-predicted probability and actual observation. Incorporating eight common variables, a nomogram for 30-day re-exacerbation after discharge with high predictive performance was constructed for patients with AECOPD, which was helpful in predicting individualized risk of re-exacerbation and offering individualized post-discharge support.