Colorectal Cancer Screening: An Updated Modeling Study for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2016 colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Objective: To provide updated model-based estimates of the benefits, burden, and harms of colorectal cancer screening strategies and to identify strategies that may provide an efficient balance of life-years gained (LYG) from screening and colonoscopy burden to inform the USPSTF. Design, Setting, and Participants: Comparative modeling study using 3 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer screening in a hypothetical cohort of 40-year-old US individuals at average risk of colorectal cancer. Exposures: Screening from ages 45, 50, or 55 years to ages 70, 75, 80, or 85 years with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), multitarget stool DNA testing, flexible sigmoidoscopy alone or with FIT, computed tomography colonography, or colonoscopy. All persons with an abnormal noncolonoscopy screening test result were assumed to undergo follow-up colonoscopy. Screening intervals varied by test. Full adherence with all procedures was assumed. Main Outcome and Measures: Estimated LYG relative to no screening (benefit), lifetime number of colonoscopies (burden), number of complications from screening (harms), and balance of incremental burden and benefit (efficiency ratios). Efficient strategies were those estimated to require fewer additional colonoscopies per additional LYG relative to other strategies. Results: Estimated LYG from screening strategies ranged from 171 to 381 per 1000 40-year-olds. Lifetime colonoscopy burden ranged from 624 to 6817 per 1000 individuals, and screening complications ranged from 5 to 22 per 1000 individuals. Among the 49 strategies that were efficient options with all 3 models, 41 specified screening beginning at age 45. No single age to end screening was predominant among the efficient strategies, although the additional LYG from continuing screening after age 75 were generally small. With the exception of a 5-year interval for computed tomography colonography, no screening interval predominated among the efficient strategies for each modality. Among the strategies highlighted in the 2016 USPSTF recommendation, lowering the age to begin screening from 50 to 45 years was estimated to result in 22 to 27 additional LYG, 161 to 784 additional colonoscopies, and 0.1 to 2 additional complications per 1000 persons (ranges are across screening strategies, based on mean estimates across models). Assuming full adherence, screening outcomes and efficient strategies were similar by sex and race and across 3 scenarios for population risk of colorectal cancer. Conclusions and Relevance: This microsimulation modeling analysis suggests that screening for colorectal cancer with stool tests, endoscopic tests, or computed tomography colonography starting at age 45 years provides an efficient balance of colonoscopy burden and life-years gained.

Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection of incidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection. METHODS: A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts). CONCLUSIONS: Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.

Potential survival benefits from optimized chemotherapy implementation in advanced ovarian cancer: Projections from a microsimulation model.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is often diagnosed in advanced stages, when survival is poor. Treatment advances have been made, but are inconsistently implemented. Our purpose was to project the maximum life expectancy gains that could be achieved in women with stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer if the implementation of available chemotherapy regimens could be optimized. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy benefits associated with "optimized" implementation of four post-operative chemotherapy options: standard intravenous chemotherapy; intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy; bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy; and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy + intravenous chemotherapy. Optimized implementation was defined as follows. Patients triaged to primary cytoreductive surgery received intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Patients triaged to neoadjuvant chemotherapy received hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy at interval cytoreductive surgery if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and standard IV chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation was compared with that of current utilization practices, estimated using published literature and the National Cancer Database. Effects of model uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation vs. current practice was 76.7 vs. 64.5 months (life expectancy gain = 12.2 months). Providing intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy to all eligible patients was the largest driver of life expectancy gains, due to both the potential benefit conferred by intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy and the proportion of eligible women who do not receive intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy in current practice. CONCLUSION: Population-level life expectancy in stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer could be substantially improved through greater uptake of available chemotherapy regimens.

Identifying Barriers to Building a Diverse Physician Workforce: A National Survey of the ACR Membership.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify potential barriers to building a diverse workforce in radiology and radiation oncology by conducting a national survey of physicians in these fields and studying their reported career experiences. METHODS: An electronic survey of ACR members (February 27, 2018, to April 26, 2018) was conducted in which physicians' attitudes about their work environment, relationships, and culture were queried. The aim was to determine if responses differed by gender or race/ethnicity. In total, 900 invitations were issued; women were oversampled with the goal of equal representation. Descriptive summaries (proportions of yes or no responses) were calculated per item, per subgroup of interest. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify significant associations between gender- and item-specific responses; it was not used in the race/ethnicity analysis because of the small sizes of many subgroups. RESULTS: The response rate was 51.2% (461 of 900). In total, 51.0% of respondents identified as women (235 of 461); the 9.5% (44 of 461) who identified as black or African American, Hispanic, or American Indian or Alaska Native were considered underrepresented minorities. Respondents' mean age was 40.2 ± 10.4 years. Subgroups varied most in their reporting of unfair or disrespectful treatment. Women were significantly more likely than men to report such treatment attributable to gender (50.6% versus 5.4%; odds ratio, 18.00; 95% confidence interval, 9.29-34.86; P < .001), and 27.9% of underrepresented minorities compared with 2.6% of white non-Hispanic respondents reported such treatment attributable to race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Women and underrepresented minorities disproportionately experience unfair or disrespectful treatment in the workplace. Addressing this problem is likely to be critically important for improving workforce diversity.

Radiation-induced and neurofibromatosis-associated malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) have worse outcomes than sporadic MPNST.

BACKGROUND: Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) may be sporadic or associated with neurofibromatosis or prior radiation. MPNST may behave aggressively with a high rate of local recurrence and distant metastasis. METHODS: In an IRB approved protocol, we reviewed the clinical characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of 280 patients treated for MPNST at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) between 1960 and 2016. RESULTS: There were 138 men and 142 women with a median age of 41 (range: 3-95) years. Tumors were classified as neurofibromatosis-associated (nfMPNST, n = 77), radiation-induced (rMPNST, n = 21), or sporadic (sMPNST, n = 182) MPNST. The median time to development of rMPNST from prior radiation was 15 years. With a median follow-up of 43.1 months, the median overall survival (OS) was 65.3 months. Older age, nfMPNST, rMPNST, increased tumor size, lymph node involvement, metastatic disease, intermediate to high grade, radiotherapy alone, and R2 resection were related to worse OS, whereas surgery with radiotherapy was associated with improved OS. Among the 251 patients without metastasis, nfMPNST, rMPNST, and increased tumor size were correlated with worse metastasis-free survival; nfMPNST, radiotherapy alone, and R1/R2 resection were associated with local recurrence, whereas surgery with adjuvant radiotherapy was related to improved local control in patients with R1/R2 resection. CONCLUSIONS: Both radiation-induced and neurofibromatosis-associated MPNSTs have poorer prognosis than sporadic MPNSTs. Complete resection of the tumor is a significant prognostic factor for MPNST. The addition of radiotherapy after surgery should be considered especially when the surgical margins are positive.

Prevention of Prescription Opioid Misuse and Projected Overdose Deaths in the United States.

Importance: Deaths due to opioid overdose have tripled in the last decade. Efforts to curb this trend have focused on restricting the prescription opioid supply; however, the near-term effects of such efforts are unknown. Objective: To project effects of interventions to lower prescription opioid misuse on opioid overdose deaths from 2016 to 2025. Design, Setting, and Participants: This system dynamics (mathematical) model of the US opioid epidemic projected outcomes of simulated individuals who engage in nonmedical prescription or illicit opioid use from 2016 to 2025. The analysis was performed in 2018 by retrospectively calibrating the model from 2002 to 2015 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Interventions: Comparison of interventions that would lower the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2016 to 2025 based on historical trends (a 7.5% reduction per year) and 50% faster than historical trends (an 11.3% reduction per year), vs a circumstance in which the incidence of misuse remained constant after 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures: Opioid overdose deaths from prescription and illicit opioids from 2016 to 2025 under each intervention. Results: Under the status quo, the annual number of opioid overdose deaths is projected to increase from 33 100 in 2015 to 81 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 63 600-101 700) in 2025 (a 147% increase from 2015). From 2016 to 2025, 700 400 (95% UI, 590 200-817 100) individuals in the United States are projected to die from opioid overdose, with 80% of the deaths attributable to illicit opioids. The number of individuals using illicit opioids is projected to increase by 61%-from 0.93 million (95% UI, 0.83-1.03 million) in 2015 to 1.50 million (95% UI, 0.98-2.22 million) by 2025. Across all interventions tested, further lowering the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2015 levels is projected to decrease overdose deaths by only 3.0% to 5.3%. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that interventions targeting prescription opioid misuse such as prescription monitoring programs may have a modest effect, at best, on the number of opioid overdose deaths in the near future. Additional policy interventions are urgently needed to change the course of the epidemic.

Testing for Verification Bias in Reported Malignancy Risks for Side-Branch Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms: A Simulation Modeling Approach.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to test for the possibility that published malignancy risks for side-branch intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are overestimates, likely due to verification bias. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We tested for possible verification bias using simulation modeling techniques. First, in age-defined hypothetical cohorts of 10 million persons, we projected the frequency of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) arising from side-branch IPMNs over 5 years using published estimates of their prevalence (4.4%) and rate of malignant transformation (1.9%). Second, we projected the total number of PDAC cases in corresponding cohorts over the same time horizon using national cancer registry data. For each cohort, we determined whether the percentage of all PDAC cases that arose from side-branch IPMNs (i.e., side-branch IPMN-associated PDAC cases) was clinically plausible using an upper limit of 10% to define plausibility, as estimated from the literature. Model assumptions and parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Across all cohorts, percentages of side-branch IPMN-associated PDACs greatly exceeded 10%. In the base case (mean age = 55.7 years), 80% of PDAC cases arose from side-branch IPMNs (7877/9786). In the oldest cohort evaluated (mean age = 75 years), this estimate was 76% (14,227/18,714). In a secondary analysis, we found that if an upper limit threshold of 10% for side-branch IPMN-associated PDAC was imposed, the model-predicted rate of malignancy for side-branch IPMNs would be less than 0.24% over a 5-year time horizon, substantially lower than most literature-based estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that reported malignancy risks associated with side-branch IPMNs are likely to be overestimates and imply the presence of verification bias.

Optimizing colorectal cancer screening by race and sex: Microsimulation analysis II to inform the American Cancer Society colorectal cancer screening guideline.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) risk varies by race and sex. This study, 1 of 2 microsimulation analyses to inform the 2018 American Cancer Society CRC screening guideline, explored the influence of race and sex on optimal CRC screening strategies. METHODS: Two Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network microsimulation models, informed by US incidence data, were used to evaluate a variety of screening methods, ages to start and stop, and intervals for 4 demographic subgroups (black and white males and females) under 2 scenarios for the projected lifetime CRC risk for 40-year-olds: 1) assuming that risk had remained stable since the early screening era and 2) assuming that risk had increased proportionally to observed incidence trends under the age of 40 years. Model-based screening recommendations were based on the predicted level of benefit (life-years gained) and burden (required number of colonoscopies), the incremental burden-to-benefit ratio, and the relative efficiency in comparison with strategies with similar burdens. RESULTS: When lifetime CRC risk was assumed to be stable over time, the models differed in the recommended age to start screening for whites (45 vs 50 years) but consistently recommended screening from the age of 45 years for blacks. When CRC risk was assumed to be increased, the models recommended starting at the age of 45 years, regardless of race and sex. Strategies recommended under both scenarios included colonoscopy every 10 or 15 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing, and computed tomographic colonography every 5 years through the age of 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: Microsimulation modeling suggests that CRC screening should be considered from the age of 45 years for blacks and for whites if the lifetime risk has increased proportionally to the incidence for younger adults. Cancer 2018;124:2974-85. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Cancer Society.

Patient Navigation to Improve Cancer Screening in Underserved Populations: Reported Experiences, Opportunities, and Challenges.

Our goal is to define patient navigation for an imaging audience, present a focused selection of published experiences with navigation programs for breast and colorectal cancer screening, and expose principal barriers to the success of such programs. Despite numerous advances in the early detection of cancers, many patients still present with advanced disease. A disproportionate number are low-income minority patients who experience worse health outcomes than their white or more financially stable counterparts. Patient navigation, which aims to assist the medically underserved by overcoming specific barriers to care, may represent one solution to narrowing disparities. Related research suggests that in general, patient navigation programs that have addressed breast or colorectal cancer screening have been successful in improving screening rates and timeliness of follow-up care. However, although beneficial, navigation is expensive and may present an unmanageable financial burden for many health care centers. To overcome this challenge, navigation efforts will likely need to target those patients that are most likely to benefit. Further research to identify such patients will be critically important for improving the sustainability of navigation programs, and, in turn, for realizing the benefits of such programs in reducing cancer disparities.