Can the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator Accurately Predict Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in Emergency Abdominal Surgery? An Italian Multicenter Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator provides an estimation of 30-day postoperative adverse outcomes. It is useful in the identification of high-risk patients needing clinical optimization and supports the informed consent process. The purpose of this study is to validate its predictive value in the Italian emergency setting. STUDY DESIGN: Six Italian institutions were included. Inclusion diagnoses were acute cholecystitis, appendicitis, gastrointestinal perforation or obstruction. Areas under the receiving operating characteristic curves, Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow index, and observed-to-expected event ratio were measured to assess both discrimination and calibration. Effect of the Surgeon Adjustment Score on calibration was then tested. A patient's personal risk ratio was obtained, and a cutoff was chosen to predict mortality with a high negative predicted value. RESULTS: A total of 2,749 emergency procedures were considered for the analysis. The areas under the receiving operating characteristic curve were 0.932 for death (0.921 to 0.941, p < 0.0001; Brier 0.041) and 0.918 for discharge to nursing or rehabilitation facility (0.907 to 0.929, p < 0.0001; 0.070). Discrimination was also strong (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve >0.8) for renal failure, cardiac complication, pneumonia, venous thromboembolism, serious complication, and any complication. Brier score was informative (<0.25) for all the presented variables. The observed-to-expected event ratios were 1.0 for death and 0.8 for discharge to facility. For almost all other variables, there was a general risk underestimation, but the use of the Surgeon Adjustment Score permitted a better calibration of the model. A risk ratio >3.00 predicted the onset of death with sensitivity = 86%, specificity = 77%, and negative predicted value = 99%. CONCLUSIONS: The American College of Surgeons NSQIP surgical risk calculator has proved to be a reliable predictor of adverse postoperative outcomes also in Italian emergency settings, with particular regard to mortality. We therefore recommend the use of the surgical risk calculator in the multidisciplinary care of patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery.

Trend of emergency general surgery procedures during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In early 2020, the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) spread rapidly throughout the whole world, causing a massive response in terms of health resource disposal. Moreover, lockdowns were imposed in entire countries. This study aims to assess whether there was a downward trend in emergency general surgery (EGS) procedures accomplished throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and to determine patients' and diseases' characteristics. METHODS: This is a multicentric retrospective observational cohort analysis conducted on patients who underwent EGS procedures during the lockdown and the same period of the previous year in the three Third Level Hospitals of Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy. RESULTS: During the study period, 138 patients underwent EGS procedures versus the 197 patients operated on in 2019, meaning a 30.0% decrease in the number of surgeries performed. The incidence rate for EGS procedures was 2.5 surgeries per day during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to 3.5 surgeries per day in 2019 (P<0.001). The characteristics of patients operated on in 2020 were comparable to those of patients who underwent EGS in 2019, except for the higher prevalence of male patients during the COVID-19 pandemic (76.8 vs. 55.8; P<0.001). No difference was recorded in disease severity between the two study periods. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant reduction in EGS procedures carried out was recorded. However, no clear explanation can be given to elucidate this fact.