Shaping and enhancing resilient forests for a resilient society.

The world is currently facing uncertainty caused by environmental, social, and economic changes and by political shocks. Fostering social-ecological resilience by enhancing forests' ability to provide a range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, habitat provision, and sustainable livelihoods, is key to addressing such uncertainty. However, policy makers and managers currently lack a clear understanding of how to operationalise the shaping of resilience through the combined challenges of climate change, the biodiversity crisis, and changes in societal demand. Based on a scientific literature review, we identified a set of actions related to ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and disturbance and pressure impacts that forest managers and policy makers should attend to enhance the resilience of European forest systems. We conclude that the resilience shaping of forests should (1) adopt an operational approach, which is currently lacking, (2) identify and address existing and future trade-offs while reinforcing win-wins and (3) attend to local particularities through an adaptive management approach.

Resilience and vulnerability: distinct concepts to address global change in forests.

Resilience and vulnerability are important concepts to understand, anticipate, and manage global change impacts on forest ecosystems. However, they are often used confusingly and inconsistently, hampering a synthetic understanding of global change, and impeding communication with managers and policy-makers. Both concepts are powerful and have complementary strengths, reflecting their different history, methodological approach, components, and spatiotemporal focus. Resilience assessments address the temporal response to disturbance and the mechanisms driving it. Vulnerability assessments focus on spatial patterns of exposure and susceptibility, and explicitly address adaptive capacity and stakeholder preferences. We suggest applying the distinct concepts of resilience and vulnerability where they provide particular leverage, and deduce a number of lessons learned to facilitate the next generation of global change assessments.

Plant canopies promote climatic disequilibrium in Mediterranean recruit communities.

Current rates of climate change are exceeding the capacity of many plant species to track climate, thus leading communities to be in disequilibrium with climatic conditions. Plant canopies can contribute to this disequilibrium by buffering macro-climatic conditions and sheltering poorly adapted species to the oncoming climate, particularly in their recruitment stages. Here we analyse differences in climatic disequilibrium between understorey and open ground woody plant recruits in 28 localities, covering more than 100,000 m2 , across an elevation range embedding temperature and aridity gradients in the southern Iberian Peninsula. This study demonstrates higher climatic disequilibrium under canopies compared with open ground, supporting that plant canopies would affect future community climatic lags by allowing the recruitment of less arid-adapted species in warm and dry conditions, but also it endorse that canopies could favour warm-adapted species in extremely cold environments as mountain tops, thus pre-adapting communities living in these habitats to climate change.

Pathways to global-change effects on biodiversity: new opportunities for dynamically forecasting demography and species interactions.

In structured populations, persistence under environmental change may be particularly threatened when abiotic factors simultaneously negatively affect survival and reproduction of several life cycle stages, as opposed to a single stage. Such effects can then be exacerbated when species interactions generate reciprocal feedbacks between the demographic rates of the different species. Despite the importance of such demographic feedbacks, forecasts that account for them are limited as individual-based data on interacting species are perceived to be essential for such mechanistic forecasting-but are rarely available. Here, we first review the current shortcomings in assessing demographic feedbacks in population and community dynamics. We then present an overview of advances in statistical tools that provide an opportunity to leverage population-level data on abundances of multiple species to infer stage-specific demography. Lastly, we showcase a state-of-the-art Bayesian method to infer and project stage-specific survival and reproduction for several interacting species in a Mediterranean shrub community. This case study shows that climate change threatens populations most strongly by changing the interaction effects of conspecific and heterospecific neighbours on both juvenile and adult survival. Thus, the repurposing of multi-species abundance data for mechanistic forecasting can substantially improve our understanding of emerging threats on biodiversity.

Modelling the dynamics of Pinus sylvestris forests after a die-off event under climate change scenarios.

In recent decades, die-off events in Pinus sylvestris populations have increased. The causes of these phenomena, which are usually related to local and regional extreme hot droughts, have been extensively investigated from a physiological viewpoint. However, the consequences of die-off process in terms of demography and vegetation dynamics have been less thoroughly addressed. Here, we projected P. sylvestris plot dynamics after a die-off event, under climate change scenarios, considering also their early demographic stages (i.e., seedlings, saplings and ingrowth from the sapling to adult class), to assess the resilience of P. sylvestris populations after such events. We used Integral Projection Models (IPMs) to project future plot structure under current climate, and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.0 climate scenarios, using climatic suitability - extracted from Species Distribution Models - as a covariable in the estimations of vital rates over time. Field data feeding IPMs were obtained from two successive surveys, at the end of the die-off event (2013) and four years later (2017), undertaken on populations situated across the P. sylvestris range of distribution in Catalonia (NE Spain). Plots affected by die-off experienced a loss of large trees, which causes that basal area, tree diameter and tree density will remain lower for decades relative to unaffected plots. After the event, this situation is partially counterbalanced in affected plots by a greater increase in basal area and seedling recruitment into tree stage, thus promoting resilience. However, resilience is delayed under the climate-change scenarios with warmer and drier conditions involving additional physiological stress, due to a reduced abundance of seedlings and a smaller plot basal area. The study shows lagged effect of drought-induced die-off events on forest structure, also revealing stabilizing mechanisms, such as recruitment and tree growth release, which enhance resilience. However, these mechanisms would be jeopardized by oncoming regional warming.

RecruitNet: A global database of plant recruitment networks.

Plant recruitment interactions (i.e., what recruits under what) shape the composition, diversity, and structure of plant communities. Despite the huge body of knowledge on the mechanisms underlying recruitment interactions among species, we still know little about the structure of the recruitment networks emerging in ecological communities. Modeling and analyzing the community-level structure of plant recruitment interactions as a complex network can provide relevant information on ecological and evolutionary processes acting both at the species and ecosystem levels. We report a data set containing 143 plant recruitment networks in 23 countries across five continents, including temperate and tropical ecosystems. Each network identifies the species under which another species recruits. All networks report the number of recruits (i.e., individuals) per species. The data set includes >850,000 recruiting individuals involved in 118,411 paired interactions among 3318 vascular plant species across the globe. The cover of canopy species and open ground is also provided. Three sampling protocols were used: (1) The Recruitment Network (RN) protocol (106 networks) focuses on interactions among established plants ("canopy species") and plants in their early stages of recruitment ("recruit species"). A series of plots was delimited within a locality, and all the individuals recruiting and their canopy species were identified; (2) The paired Canopy-Open (pCO) protocol (26 networks) consists in locating a potential canopy plant and identifying recruiting individuals under the canopy and in a nearby open space of the same area; (3) The Georeferenced plot (GP) protocol (11 networks) consists in using information from georeferenced individual plants in large plots to infer canopy-recruit interactions. Some networks incorporate data for both herbs and woody species, whereas others focus exclusively on woody species. The location of each study site, geographical coordinates, country, locality, responsible author, sampling dates, sampling method, and life habits of both canopy and recruit species are provided. This database will allow researchers to test ecological, biogeographical, and evolutionary hypotheses related to plant recruitment interactions. There are no copyright restrictions on the data set; please cite this data paper when using these data in publications.

Climatic and stand drivers of forest resistance to recent bark beetle disturbance in European coniferous forests.

Bark beetle infestation is a major driver of tree mortality that may be critical for forest persistence under climate change and the forecasted increase of extreme heat and drought episodes. Under this context, the environmental position of host tree populations within the species' climatic niche (central vs. marginal populations) is expected to be a determinant in the dynamics of insect-host systems. Here, we analyzed the recent patterns of bark beetle disturbance and forest resistance across European coniferous forests during the 2010-2018 period. We obtained bark beetle attack and tree mortality data from successive continental-scale forest condition surveys on 130 plots including five host trees and five bark beetle species, and characterized the climatic niche of each species. Then, we analyzed the overall forest resistance and species-specific responses, in terms of bark beetle attack and induced tree mortality, in relation to the distance to the niche optimum of both host tree and beetle species, previous drought events, and plot characteristics. Regional patterns of recent disturbance revealed that forests in central, north, and east of Europe could be at risk under the attack of multivoltine bark beetle species. We found that overall forest resistance to beetle attack was determined by several driving factors, which varied among species responses. Particularly, the environmental position of the affected forest within the host and beetle species' climatic niche and plot characteristics mediated the influence of drought on the resistance to beetle attack. In turn, forest resistance to induced tree mortality was determined exclusively by the maximum intensity and duration of drought events. Our findings highlight the importance of disturbance interactions and suggest that the joint influence of drought events and bark beetle disturbance will threaten the persistence of European coniferous forests, even in those tree populations close to their species' climatic optimum.

Species climatic niche explains post-fire regeneration of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) under compounded effects of fire and drought in east Spain.

Fire and drought are two major agents that shape Mediterranean ecosystems, but their interacting effects on forest resilience have not been yet fully addressed. We used Pinus halepensis to investigate how compound fire-drought regimes determine the success of post-fire regeneration. We measured the density of P.halepensis newly established individuals following fire in forty-three sites along the Spanish east coast, the wetter region of the species distribution. The climatic niche of P.halepensis was characterized by considering their populations across its Spanish distribution range. We used yearly values (1979-2013 period) of accumulated precipitation, mean temperature and the warmest quarter values of these two variables to generate the climatic space or climatic niche occupied by the species. Kernel density estimates were then applied to determine the niche centroid, which would correspond to the species' climatic optimum within its Spanish distribution range. Then, we computed the pre- and post-fire climatic deviations of each sampling site as the difference between site-specific climate conditions respect to the species niche centroid, and assessed their relationship with the success of post-fire regeneration. We found highly variable patterns of post-fire regeneration density of P.halepensis over the studied sites, ranging from 7 to 42,822 tree pines ha-1. Generalized linear models indicated a positive relationship between fire severity and the density of P.halepensis regeneration. Positive temperature deviations - warm conditions - before fire were positively related to pine regeneration. This effect increases under higher fire severity. By contrast, warm temperatures after fire showed a negative effect on the density of pine trees. Positive precipitation deviations - wet conditions - after fire enhanced pine regeneration, while precipitation before fire did not had any significant effect. Though P.halepensis is considered a species adapted to fire and drought, the interaction between these two disturbances can alter the success of its post-fire recovery patterns limiting the species' resilience in the future.

Synthesis, crystal structures and magnetic properties of a P-stereogenic ortho-(4-amino-tempo)phosphinic amide radical and its CuII complex.

The synthesis of phosphinic amides containing one 4-amino-TEMPO substituent at the ortho position has been achieved through copper(i) catalyzed cross-coupling reactions of ortho-iodophosphinic amides with 4-amino-TEMPO. The method has been extended to the preparation of the first example of a P-stereogenic ortho-(4-amino-tempo)phosphinic amide radical 10. The reaction of 10 with Cu(hfac)2 afforded the P-stereogenic CuII complex 19. The crystal structure of both chiral compounds is reported. The molecular structure of 10 consists of a supramolecular zig-zag chain formed by intermolecular hydrogen bonds between the NH group of the phosphinic amide moiety and the nitroxide oxygen atom. In complex 19, the ligand acts as a bridge between two CuII ions coordinated to the oxygen atoms of the P[double bond, length as m-dash]O and N-O· groups leading to the formation of a polymeric helicate chain in which the metal ions exist in a distorted octahedral geometry. The magnetic behavior of ligand 10 is characterized by very weak intermolecular antiferromagnetic interactions, whereas ferro- and anti-ferromagnetic interactions are present in complex 19.

Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality.

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here, we show that tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern postdrought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Intermolecular interaction energies and magnetic properties of spin-isolated multinuclear CuII complexes.

Dinuclear CuII complexes with 3,5-dinitrobenzoates and 2,2'-bipyridine (2) or 1,10-phenanthroline (3) were synthesized and characterized. A complete energy framework analysis using the HF/3-21G energy model was performed which found that dispersion forces and C-H...O interactions are responsible for the crystal structure features. The magnetic properties of the complexes show a weak magnetic exchange between spins, resulting in low exchange constants of -2.72 (1) cm-1 and -1.10 (1) cm-1 for complexes (2) and (3), respectively. This results from the low overlap between magnetic orbitals induced by 3,5-dinitrobenzoate bridges and the arrangement of the magnetic orbitals. Consequently, the dinuclear complexes (2) and (3) behave as spin-isolated multinuclear CuII species in contrast to the trinuclear complex with similar ligands.

Synthesis, structural characterization and electrochemical and magnetic studies of M(hfac)2 (M = CuII, CoII) and Nd(hfac)3 complexes of 4-amino-TEMPO.

Three mononuclear complexes [M(hfac)x(ATEMPO)y], where M = Cu (11) and Co (12), x = y = 2; M = Nd (13), x = 4, y = 1, and two polynuclear complexes [{Cu(hfac)2(ATEMPO)}n], where n = 2 (14) and 4 (15), were obtained by the reaction of M(hfac)x (M = CuII, CoII, NdIII; x = 2, 3) with 4-amino-TEMPO (4-amino-2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidin-N-oxyl) in good yields and their structural, electrochemical and magnetic properties were examined. In all cases, the radical is coordinated to the metal through the amino group, except 15, and the metal ions have an octahedral geometry, except 13. Different coordination architectures of the copper complexes were obtained as a function of the stoichiometry and solvents used. In complexes 11 and 12 the radicals show an equatorial-equatorial and axial-equatorial arrangement, respectively, giving rise to two distinct 2D supramolecular systems through intermolecular interactions. Compound 13 is the first example of a lanthanide complex of the ATEMPO radical. The NdIII ion adopts a rare nine-coordination via binding to four hfac ligands and the radical. The dinuclear complex 14 shows a (Cu-O)2 core in which the CuII ions are bridged by the oxygen atoms from the hfac ligands. In compound 15 the ATEMPO radical acts as a bidentate ligand through the amino and nitroxyl groups leading to an unprecedented tetranuclear square-shaped framework. Cyclic voltammetry showed redox processes associated with the copper and TEMPO moieties. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy revealed the temperature dependence of the conductivity for compound 15 with a maximum of 2.09 × 10-5 S cm-1 at 408 K. The magnetic behavior of complexes 11-15 is determined by metal-radical interactions. Ferromagnetic interaction has been observed for complex 11 due to the existence of two different exchange pathways arising from the conformational arrangement of the radicals around the metal center, whereas the single conformation of the radical in complex 14 resulted in a weak antiferromagnetic coupling. In complex 15 both O-Cu and N-Cu contacts are present giving rise to ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic interactions, respectively.

Relationship between heatwave-induced forest die-off and climatic suitability in multiple tree species.

In recent decades, many forest die-off events have been reported in relation to climate-change-induced episodes, such as droughts and heat waves. To understand how these extreme climatic events induce forest die-off, it is important to find a tool to standardize the climatic conditions experienced by different populations during a specific climatic event, taking into account the historic climatic conditions of the site where these populations live (bioclimatic niche). In this study, we used estimates of climatic suitability calculated from species distribution models (SDMs) for such purpose. We studied forest die-off across France during the 2003 heatwave that affected Western Europe, using 2,943 forest inventory plots dominated by 14 single tree species. Die-off severity was estimated by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) loss using Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer remote sensor imagery. Climatic suitability at the local level during the historical 1979-2002 period (HCS), the episode time (2003; ECS) and suitability deviance during the historical period (HCS-SD) were calculated for each species by means of boosted regression tree models using the CHELSA climate database and occurrences extracted from European forest inventories. Low HCS-SD and high mean annual temperature explained the overall regional pattern of vulnerability to die-off across different monospecific forests. The combination of high historical and low episode climatic suitability also contributed significantly to overall forest die-off. Furthermore, we observed different species-specific relationships between die-off vulnerability and climatic suitability: Sub-Mediterranean and Mediterranean species tended to be vulnerable in historically more suitable localities (high HCS), whereas Euro-Siberian species presented greater vulnerability when the hot drought episode was more intense. We demonstrated that at regional scale, past climatic legacy plays an important role in explaining NDVI loss during the episode. Moreover, we demonstrated that SDMs-derived indexes, such as HCS, ECS and HCS-SD, could constitute a tool for standardizing the ways that populations and species experience climatic variability across time and space.

Coligand Effects on the Field-Induced Double Slow Magnetic Relaxation in Six-Coordinate Cobalt(II) Single-Ion Magnets (SIMs) with Positive Magnetic Anisotropy.

Two mononuclear cobalt(II) compounds of formula [Co(dmphen)2(OOCPh)]ClO4·1/2H2O·1/2CH3OH (1) and [Co(dmbipy)2(OOCPh)]ClO4 (2) (dmphen = 2,9-dimethyl-1,10-phenanthroline, dmbipy = 6,6'-dimethyl-2,2'-bipyridine and HOOCPh = benzoic acid) are prepared and magnetostructurally investigated. Each cobalt(II) ion is six-coordinate with a distorted octahedral CoN4O2 environment. The complex cations are interlinked leading to supramolecular chains (1) and pairs (2) that grow along the crystallographic c-axis with racemic mixtures of (Δ,Λ)-Co units. FIRMS allowed us to directly measure the zero-field splitting between the two lowest Kramers doublets, which led to axial anisotropy values of 58.3 cm-1 ≤ D < 60.7 cm-1 (1) and 63.8 cm-1 ≤ D < 64.1 cm-1 (2). HFEPR spectra of polycrystalline samples of 1 and 2 at low temperatures confirm the positive sign of D and provide an estimate of the E/D quotient [0.147/0.187 (1) and 0.052 (2)]. Detailed ac and dc magnetic studies reveal that 1 and 2 are new examples of field-induced single-ion magnets (SIMs) with small transversal anisotropy. CASSCF/NEVPT2 calculations support these results. Two Orbach processes or one Orbach plus a direct relaxation mechanism provide similar agreements with the nonlinear experimental Arrhenius plots at Hdc = 500 and 2500 G for 1. Two independent relaxation processes occur in 2, but in contrast to 1, an observed linear dependence of ln(τ) vs 1/T substantiates Orbach processes against the most widely proposed Raman and direct mechanisms. The analysis of each relaxation process in 2 provided values for Ea and τ0 that are very close to those found for 1, validating the predominant role of the Orbach relaxations in both compounds and, probably, also in other cobalt(II) SIMs. A mechanism based on a spin-phonon coupling is proposed to account for the SIM behavior in 1 and 2 with any Raman or direct processes being discarded.

Hexanuclear Cu3O-3Cu triazole-based units as novel core motifs for high nuclearity copper(ii) frameworks.

The asymmetric 3,5-disubstituted 1,2,4-triazole ligand H2V (5-amino-3-picolinamido-1,2,4-triazole) by reaction with an excess of Cu(ii) perchlorate (Cu : H2V being 12 : 1) has produced a novel hexanuclear {Cu6(µ3-O/H)(HV/V)3} fragment, with one triangular Cu3(µ3-O/H) group connected to three peripheral single Cu(ii) ions through a cis-cis-trans bridging mode of the ligand, which is the building block of the three structures described here: one hexanuclear, [Cu6(µ3-O)(HV)3(ClO4)7(H2O)9]·8H2O (1), one dodecanuclear, [Cu12(µ3-O)2(V)6(ClO4)5(H2O)18](ClO4)3·6H2O (2), and one tetradecanuclear 1D-polymer, {[Cu14(µ3-OH)2(V)6(HV)(ClO4)11(H2O)20](ClO4)2·14H2O} n (3), the last two containing hexanuclear subunits linked by perchlorato bridges. The Cu-Cu av. intra-triangle distance is 3.352(2) Å and the Cu(central)-Cu(bridged external) av. distance is 5.338(3) Å. The magnetic properties of the hexanuclear "Cu3O-3Cu" cluster have been studied, resulting as best fit parameters: g = 2.18(1), J(intra-triangle) = -247.0(1) cm-1 and j(central CuII - external CuII) = -5.15(2) cm-1.

Non-structural carbohydrate dynamics associated with drought-induced die-off in woody species of a shrubland community.

Background and Aims: The relationship between plant carbon economy and drought responses of co-occurring woody species can be assessed by comparing carbohydrate (C) dynamics following drought and rain periods, relating these dynamics to species' functional traits. We studied nine woody species coexisting in a continental Mediterranean shrubland that experienced severe drought effects followed by rain. Methods: We measured total non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) and soluble sugars (SS) in roots and stems during drought and after an autumn rain pulse in plants exhibiting leaf loss and in undefoliated ones. We explored whether their dynamics were related to foliage recovery and functional traits (height [H], specific leaf area [SLA], wood density [WD]). Key Results: During drought, NSC concentrations were overall lower in stems and roots of plants experiencing leaf loss, while SS decreases were smaller. Roots had higher NSC concentrations than stems. After the rain, NSC concentrations continued to decrease, while SS increased. Green foliage recovered after rain, particularly in plants previously experiencing higher leaf loss, independently of NSC concentrations during drought. Species with lower WD tended to have more SS during drought and lower SS increases after rain. In low-WD species, plants with severe leaf loss had lower NSC relative to undefoliated ones. No significant relationship was found between H or SLA and C content or dynamics. Conclusions: Our community-level study reveals that, while responses were species-specific, C stocks overall diminished in plants affected by prolonged drought and did not increase after a pulse of seasonal rain. Dynamics were faster for SS than NSC. We found limited depletion of SS, consistent with their role in basal metabolic, transport and signalling functions. In a scenario of increased drought under climate change, NSC stocks in woody plants are expected to decrease differentially in coexisting species, with potential implications for their adaptive abilities and community dynamics.

Mean annual precipitation predicts primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought.

Extreme drought is increasing in frequency and intensity in many regions globally, with uncertain consequences for the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions, including primary production. Primary production resistance, the capacity to withstand change during extreme drought, and resilience, the degree to which production recovers, vary among and within ecosystem types, obscuring generalized patterns of ecological stability. Theory and many observations suggest forest production is more resistant but less resilient than grassland production to extreme drought; however, studies of production sensitivity to precipitation variability indicate that the processes controlling resistance and resilience may be influenced more by mean annual precipitation (MAP) than ecosystem type. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to investigate primary production resistance and resilience to extreme drought in 64 forests and grasslands across a broad MAP gradient. We found resistance to extreme drought was predicted by MAP; however, grasslands (positive) and forests (negative) exhibited opposing resilience relationships with MAP. Our findings indicate that common plant physiological mechanisms may determine grassland and forest resistance to extreme drought, whereas differences among plant residents in turnover time, plant architecture, and drought adaptive strategies likely underlie divergent resilience patterns. The low resistance and resilience of dry grasslands suggests that these ecosystems are the most vulnerable to extreme drought - a vulnerability that is expected to compound as extreme drought frequency increases in the future.

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought-induced tree and forest mortality.

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die-off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die-off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought-induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level.

Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation.

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic-core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972-2000) and during an extreme event (2001-2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die-off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die-off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die-off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range-wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co-occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die-off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.

Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality.

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late-successional short-statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm-like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad-leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm-like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.