Patient-centered medical home initiative produced modest economic results for Veterans Health Administration, 2010-12.

In 2010 the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) began a nationwide initiative called Patient Aligned Care Teams (PACT) that reorganized care at all VHA primary care clinics in accordance with the patient-centered medical home model. We analyzed data for fiscal years 2003-12 to assess how trends in health care use and costs changed after the implementation of PACT. We found that PACT was associated with modest increases in primary care visits and with modest decreases in both hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions and outpatient visits with mental health specialists. We estimated that these changes avoided $596 million in costs, compared to the investment in PACT of $774 million, for a potential net loss of $178 million in the study period. Although PACT has not generated a positive return, it is still maturing, and trends in costs and use are favorable. Adopting patient-centered care does not appear to have been a major financial risk for the VHA.

Association between local area unemployment rates and use of Veterans Affairs outpatient health services.

BACKGROUND: Prior research indicates that federal spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and other government health programs accelerated during the Great Recession. OBJECTIVES: To examine whether local unemployment was associated with utilization of Veterans Affairs Health Care System (VA) primary care, specialty care, and mental health services during 2004-2012. RESEARCH DESIGN: We analyzed utilization of VA health services at the clinic level using fixed-effects negative binomial models. We stratified analyses by veterans' copayment status (exempt and nonexempt) and age (under 65 and 65+) to account for differences in VA utilization because of Medicare eligibility. SUBJECTS: A total of 11,041,855 veterans assigned to 892 clinics identified in the VA Primary Care Management Module, representing nearly all veterans receiving primary care from VA, were included. MEASURES: Clinic-level utilization was calculated quarterly as the total number of visits for patients assigned to a clinic. Local area unemployment rates were defined as quarterly unemployment rates within VA geographical planning sectors. RESULTS: Higher local unemployment was associated with greater use of VA care in all categories among veterans exempt from copayments. The association between local unemployment and utilization differed by age group among veterans subject to copayments. Higher local unemployment was associated with lower use of primary and specialty care among Medicare-eligible veterans aged 65+, but greater use of primary care among veterans under age 65. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the importance of the state of the economy in interpreting and forecasting demand for government health programs including VA, particularly during periods focused on deficit reduction.

The effect of physician panel size on health care outcomes.

An inadequate supply of primary care providers is leading to a crisis in access. Pressures are being placed on primary care practices to increase panel sizes. The impact of these pressures on clinical processes, patient satisfaction and waiting times is largely unknown, although evidence from recent literature shows that longer waiting time results in higher mortality rates and other adverse outcomes. FY2004, Department of Veterans Affairs primary care patient data are used. GLIMMIX and other generalized linear model models illustrate how expanded panel sizes are correlated with clinical process indicators, patient satisfaction and waiting times, controlling for practice, provider and patient characteristics. We generally find that larger panel sizes are related to statistically significant increases in waiting time. However, larger panel sizes appear to have generally small effects on patient process indicators and satisfaction. Panels with more support staff have lower waiting times and small, improved outcomes. We find panels with older and clinically riskier patients have, on average, slightly lower waiting times and increased likelihoods of positive outcomes than panels with younger, healthier veterans. Female veterans appear to have reduced likelihoods of positive outcomes. Higher priority and female veterans also have lower satisfaction. Further study is needed to analyse the impact of potential panel size endogeneity in this system.