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BACKGROUND: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterising recent RVF disease events in East Africa. METHODS: Data on 100 disease events (2008-2022) from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modelled against possible geoecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980 and 2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. RESULTS: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and three livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR, 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geoecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1°C increase in temperature and a 1-unit increase in NDVI, one months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1, 1.2) and 1.93 (95% CI 1.01, 3.71), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed a significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12-0.3°C/decade, p<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (p<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics.
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Mudança Climática , Febre do Vale de Rift , Febre do Vale de Rift/epidemiologia , Humanos , Animais , África Oriental/epidemiologia , Gado , Fatores de Risco , Uganda/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Surtos de Doenças , Quênia/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Background: Recent epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) disease in Africa suggests growing frequency and expanding geographic range of small disease clusters in regions that previously had not reported the disease. We investigated factors associated with the phenomenon by characterizing recent RVF disease events in East Africa. Methods: Data on 100 disease events (2008 - 2022) from Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were obtained from public databases and institutions, and modeled against possible geo-ecological risk factors of occurrence including altitude, soil type, rainfall/precipitation, temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), livestock production system, land-use change, and long-term climatic variations. Decadal climatic variations between 1980-2022 were evaluated for association with the changing disease pattern. Results: Of 100 events, 91% were small RVF clusters with a median of one human (IQR, 1-3) and 3 livestock cases (IQR, 2-7). These clusters exhibited minimal human mortality (IQR 0-1), and occurred primarily in highlands (67%), with 35% reported in areas that had never reported RVF disease. Multivariate regression analysis of geo-ecological variables showed a positive correlation between occurrence and increasing temperature and rainfall. A 1oC increase in temperature and 1-unit increase in NDVI, 1-3 months prior were associated with increased RVF incidence rate ratios (IRR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.1,1.2) and 9.88 (95% CI 0.85, 119.52), respectively. Long-term climatic trends showed significant decadal increase in annual mean temperature (0.12 to 0.3oC/decade, P<0.05), associated with decreasing rainfall in arid and semi-arid lowlands but increasing rainfall trends in highlands (P<0.05). These hotter and wetter highlands showed increasing frequency of RVF clusters, accounting for 76% and 43% in Uganda and Kenya, respectively. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the changing epidemiology of RVF disease. The widening geographic range of disease is associated with climatic variations, with the likely impact of wider dispersal of virus to new areas of endemicity and future epidemics. Key questions: What is already known on this topic?: Rift Valley fever is recognized for its association with heavy rainfall, flooding, and El Niño rains in the East African region. A growing body of recent studies has highlighted a shifting landscape of the disease, marked by an expanding geographic range and an increasing number of small RVF clusters.What this study adds: This study challenges previous beliefs about RVF, revealing that it predominantly occurs in small clusters rather than large outbreaks, and its association with El Niño is not as pronounced as previously thought. Over 65% of these clusters are concentrated in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda, with 35% occurring in previously unaffected regions, accompanied by an increase in temperature and total rainfall between 1980 and 2022, along with a rise in the annual number of rainy days. Notably, the observed rainfall increases are particularly significant during the short-rains season (October-December), aligning with a secondary peak in RVF incidence. In contrast, the lowlands of East Africa, where typical RVF epidemics occur, display smaller and more varied trends in annual rainfall.How this study might affect research, practice, or policy: The worldwide consequence of the expanding RVF cluster is the broader dispersion of the virus, leading to the establishment of new regions with virus endemicity. This escalation heightens the risk of more extensive extreme-weather-associated RVF epidemics in the future. Global public health institutions must persist in developing preparedness and response strategies for such scenarios. This involves the creation and approval of human RVF vaccines and therapeutics, coupled with a rapid distribution plan through regional banks.
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BACKGROUND: Antibiotics are a strong risk factor for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI), and CDI incidence is often measured as an important outcome metric for antimicrobial stewardship interventions aiming to reduce antibiotic use. However, risk of CDI from antibiotics varies by agent and dependent on the intensity (i.e., spectrum and duration) of antibiotic therapy. Thus, the impact of stewardship interventions on CDI incidence is variable, and understanding this risk requires a more granular measure of intensity of therapy than traditionally used measures like days of therapy (DOT). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study to measure the independent association between intensity of antibiotic therapy, as measured by the antibiotic spectrum index (ASI), and hospital-associated CDI (HA-CDI) at a large academic medical center between January 2018 and March 2020. We constructed a marginal Poisson regression model to generate adjusted relative risks for a unit increase in ASI per antibiotic day. RESULTS: We included 35,457 inpatient encounters in our cohort. Sixty-eight percent of patients received at least one antibiotic. We identified 128 HA-CDI cases, which corresponds to an incidence rate of 4.1 cases per 10,000 patient-days. After adjusting for known confounders, each additional unit increase in ASI per antibiotic day is associated with 1.09 times the risk of HA-CDI (Relative Risk = 1.09, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.06 to 1.13). CONCLUSIONS: ASI was strongly associated with HA-CDI and could be a useful tool in evaluating the impact of antibiotic stewardship on HA-CDI rates, providing more granular information than the more commonly used days of therapy.
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COVID-19 has presented hospitals with unique challenges. A SHEA Research Network survey showed that 40% reported "limited" or worse levels of personal protective equipment (PPE), and 13% were self-producing PPE to address those deficits, including 3D-printed items. However, we do not know how efficiently, if at all, 3D-printed materials can be disinfected. Additionally, two filaments, PLACTIVE and BIOGUARD, claim to be antimicrobial; they use copper nanocomposites and silver ions to reduce bacterial populations. We assess how PLACTIVE and BIOGUARD may be contaminated and how well they reduce contamination, and how readily Polylactic Acid (PLA), a standard 3D-printed material, may be disinfected. 3D-printed materials, including PLACTIVE and BIOGUARD, are readily contaminated with bacteria that are common in hospitals and can sustain that contamination. Our findings reveal that the levels of contamination on PLACTIVE and BIOGUARD can vary under specific conditions such as layer height or bacterial contact time, sometimes surpassing or falling short of PLA. However, disinfected disks had lower overall CFU averages than those that were not, but the level of disinfection was variable, and bacterial populations recovered hours after disinfection application. Proper disinfection and using appropriate 3D-printed materials are essential to limit bacterial contamination. 3D printers and their products can be invaluable for hospitals, especially when supplies are low, and healthcare worker safety is paramount. Environmental services should be made aware of the presence of antimicrobial 3D-printed materials, and patients should be discouraged from printing their own items for use in hospital environments.
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Objectives: To ascertain if faculty and staff were the link between the two COVID-19 outbreaks in a rural university county, and if the local university's COVID-19 policies affected contact rates of their employees across all its campuses. Methods: We conducted two anonymous, voluntary online surveys for faculty and staff of a PAC-12 university on their contact patterns both within and outside the university during the COVID-19 pandemic. One was asked when classes were virtual, and another when classes were in-person but masking. Participants were asked about the individuals they encountered, the type and location of the interactions, what COVID-19 precautions were taken - if any, as well as general questions about their location and COVID-19. Results: We received 271 responses from the first survey and 124 responses from the second. The first survey had a median of 3 contacts/respondent, with the second having 7 contacts/respondent (p<0.001). During the first survey, most contacts were family contacts (Spouse, Children), with the second survey period having Strangers and Students having the most contact (p<0.001). Over 50% of the first survey contacts happened at their home, while the second survey had 40% at work and 35% at home. Both respondents and contacts masked 42% and 46% of the time for the two surveys respectively (p<0.01). Conclusion: For future pandemics, it would be wise to take employees into account when trying to plan for the safety of university students, employees, and surrounding communities. The main places to be aware of and potentially push infectious disease precautions would be on campus, especially confined spaces like offices or small classrooms, and the home, as these tend to be the largest areas of non-masked close contact.
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Importance: This study addresses the pressing clinical question of how variations in physician and nursing staffing levels influence methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) rates, providing essential insights for optimizing staff allocation and improving patient outcomes in critical care settings. Objective: The main objective is to assess whether variations in staffing ratios and workload conceptualization significantly alter the rates of MRSA acquisitions in the ICU setting. Design: This simulation-based study utilizes stochastic compartmental mathematical modeling to explore the impact of staffing ratios and workload conceptualization on MRSA acquisitions in ICUs. Derived from a previously published model, the analysis involves running year-long stochastic simulations for each scenario 1000 times, varying nurse-to-patient ratios and intensivist staffing levels under infinite and finite workload conceptualizations. Our baseline model was a 3:1 nurse ratio with one intensivist. Main Outcome: MRSA acquisitions in ICUs, measured as median acquisitions per 1000 person-years. Results: Under baseline conditions, our model had a median of 8.2 MRSA acquisitions per 1000 person-years. Varying patient-to-nurse ratios and intensivist numbers showed substantial impacts. For infinite models, a 2:1 nurse ratio resulted in a 21% decrease, while a 1:1 nurse ratio led to a 65% reduction. Finite models demonstrated even larger effects, with a 48% decrease when having a 2:1 ratio, and an 83% reduction with a 1:1 nurse ratio. Reducing patient-to-nurse ratios in finite models increased acquisitions exponentially with a 348% increase for a 6:1 ratio. Intensivist variations had modest impacts. Conclusions and Relevance: Our study highlights the crucial role of optimizing staffing levels in ICUs for effective MRSA infection control. While intensivist variations have modest effects, bolstering nursing ratios significantly reduces MRSA acquisitions, underscoring the need for tailored staffing strategies, and recognizing the nuanced impact of workload conceptualization. Our findings offer practical insights for refining staffing protocols, emphasizing the dynamic nature of healthcare-associated infection outcomes.
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Prior studies suggest that population heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) transmission plays an important role in epidemic dynamics. During the fall of 2020, many US universities and the surrounding communities experienced an increase in reported incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a high disease burden among students. We explore the transmission dynamics of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, how it impacted the non-student population via cross-transmission, and how it could influence pandemic planning and response. Using surveillance data of reported SARS-CoV-2 cases, we developed a two-population SEIR model to estimate transmission parameters and evaluate how these subpopulations interacted during the 2020 Fall semester. We estimated the transmission rate among the university students (ßU) and community residents (ßC), as well as the rate of cross-transmission between the two subpopulations (ßM) using particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) simulation-based methods. We found that both populations were more likely to interact with others in their population and that cross-transmission was minimal. The cross-transmission estimate (ßM) was considerably smaller [0.04 × 10-5 (95% CI: 0.00 × 10-5, 0.15 × 10-5)] compared to the community estimate (ßC) at 2.09 × 10-5 (95% CI: 1.12 × 10-5, 2.90 × 10-5) and university estimate (ßU) at 27.92 × 10-5 (95% CI: 19.97 × 10-5, 39.15 × 10-5). The higher within population transmission rates among the university and the community (698 and 52 times higher, respectively) when compared to the cross-transmission rate, suggests that these two populations did not transmit between each other heavily, despite their geographic overlap. During the first wave of the pandemic, two distinct epidemics occurred among two subpopulations within a relatively small US county population where university students accounted for roughly 41% of the total population. Transmission parameter estimates varied substantially with minimal or no cross-transmission between the subpopulations. Assumptions that county-level and other small populations are well-mixed during a respiratory viral pandemic should be reconsidered. More granular models reflecting overlapping subpopulations may assist with better-targeted interventions for local public health and healthcare facilities.
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Objective: Create a longitudinal, multi-modal and multi-level surveillance cohort that targets early detection of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases among Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander adults in the Continental US and identify effective modalities for participatory disease surveillance and sustainably integrate them into ongoing COVID-19 and other public health surveillance efforts. Materials and methods: We recruited cohorts from three sites: Federal Way, WA; Springdale, AR; and remotely. Participants received a survey that included demographic characteristics and questions regarding COVID-19. Participants completed symptom checks via text message every month and recorded their temperature daily using a Kinsa smart thermometer. Results: Recruitment and data collection is ongoing. Presently, 441 adults have consented to participate. One-third of participants were classified as essential workers during the pandemic. Discussion: Over the past 18 months, we have improved our strategies to elicit better data from participants and have learned from some of the weaknesses in our initial deployment of this type of surveillance system. Other limitations stem from historic inequities and barriers which limited Native Hawaiian and Pacific Island representation in academic and clinical environments. One manifestation of this was the limited ability to provide study materials and support in multiple languages. We hope that continued partnership with the community will allow further opportunities to help restore trust in academic and medical institutions, thus generating knowledge to advance health equity. Conclusion: This participatory disease surveillance mechanism complements traditional surveillance systems by engaging underserved communities. We may also gain insights generalizable to other pathogens of concern.
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Studies designed to estimate the effect of an action in a randomized or observational setting often do not represent a random sample of the desired target population. Instead, estimates from that study can be transported to the target population. However, transportability methods generally rely on a positivity assumption, such that all relevant covariate patterns in the target population are also observed in the study sample. Strict eligibility criteria, particularly in the context of randomized trials, may lead to violations of this assumption. Two common approaches to address positivity violations are restricting the target population and restricting the relevant covariate set. As neither of these restrictions is ideal, we instead propose a synthesis of statistical and simulation models to address positivity violations. We propose corresponding g-computation and inverse probability weighting estimators. The restriction and synthesis approaches to addressing positivity violations are contrasted with a simulation experiment and an illustrative example in the context of sexually transmitted infection testing uptake. In both cases, the proposed synthesis approach accurately addressed the original research question when paired with a thoughtfully selected simulation model. Neither of the restriction approaches was able to accurately address the motivating question. As public health decisions must often be made with imperfect target population information, model synthesis is a viable approach given a combination of empirical data and external information based on the best available knowledge.
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Infecções Sexualmente Transmissíveis , Humanos , Simulação por Computador , ProbabilidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Current guidance states that asymptomatic screening for severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prior to admission to an acute-care setting is at the facility's discretion. This study's objective was to estimate the number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 admitted as inpatients under 4 testing approaches and varying assumptions. DESIGN AND SETTING: Individual-based microsimulation of 104 North Carolina acute-care hospitals. PATIENTS: All simulated inpatient admissions to acute-care hospitals from December 15, 2021, to January 13, 2022 [ie, during the SARS-COV-2 ο (omicron) variant surge]. INTERVENTIONS: We simulated (1) only testing symptomatic patients, (2) 1-stage antigen testing with no confirmatory polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, (3) 1-stage antigen testing with a confirmatory PCR for negative results, and (4) serial antigen screening (ie, repeat antigen test 2 days after a negative result). RESULTS: Over 1 month, there were 77,980 admissions: 13.7% for COVID-19, 4.3% with but not for COVID-19, and 82.0% for non-COVID-19 indications without current infection. Without asymptomatic screening, 1,089 (credible interval [CI], 946-1,253) total SARS-CoV-2 infections (7.72%) went undetected. With 1-stage antigen screening, 734 (CI, 638-845) asymptomatic infections (67.4%) were detected, with 1,277 false positives. With combined antigen and PCR screening, 1,007 (CI, 875-1,159) asymptomatic infections (92.5%) were detected, with 5,578 false positives. A serial antigen testing policy detected 973 (CI, 845-1,120) asymptomatic infections (89.4%), with 2,529 false positives. CONCLUSIONS: Serial antigen testing identified >85% of asymptomatic infections and resulted in fewer false positives with less cost per identified infection compared to combined antigen plus PCR testing.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Infecções Assintomáticas/epidemiologia , Teste para COVID-19 , HospitaisRESUMO
Purpose of Review: Preparing for pandemics requires a degree of interdisciplinary work that is challenging under the current paradigm. This review summarizes the challenges faced by the field of pandemic science and proposes how to address them. Recent Findings: The structure of current siloed systems of research organizations hinders effective interdisciplinary pandemic research. Moreover, effective pandemic preparedness requires stakeholders in public policy and health to interact and integrate new findings rapidly, relying on a robust, responsive, and productive research domain. Neither of these requirements are well supported under the current system. Summary: We propose a new paradigm for pandemic preparedness wherein interdisciplinary research and close collaboration with public policy and health practitioners can improve our ability to prevent, detect, and treat pandemics through tighter integration among domains, rapid and accurate integration, and translation of science to public policy, outreach and education, and improved venues and incentives for sustainable and robust interdisciplinary work.
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SARS-CoV-2 likely emerged from an animal reservoir. However, the frequency of and risk factors for interspecies transmission remain unclear. We conducted a community-based study in Idaho, USA, of pets in households that had >1 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans. Among 119 dogs and 57 cats, clinical signs consistent with SARS-CoV-2 were reported for 20 dogs (21%) and 19 cats (39%). Of 81 dogs and 32 cats sampled, 40% of dogs and 43% of cats were seropositive, and 5% of dogs and 8% of cats were PCR positive. This discordance might be caused by delays in sampling. Respondents commonly reported close humanâanimal contact and willingness to take measures to prevent transmission to their pets. Reported preventive measures showed a slightly protective but nonsignificant trend for both illness and seropositivity in pets. Sharing of beds and bowls had slight harmful effects, reaching statistical significance for sharing bowls and seropositivity.
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COVID-19 , Doenças do Gato , Humanos , Animais , Cães , Gatos , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/veterinária , Idaho/epidemiologia , Washington/epidemiologia , Características da Família , Animais de Estimação , Doenças do Gato/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Importance: Person-to-person contact is important for the transmission of health care-associated pathogens. Quantifying these contact patterns is crucial for modeling disease transmission and understanding routes of potential transmission. Objective: To generate and analyze the mixing matrices of hospital patients based on their contacts within hospital units. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this quality improvement study, mixing matrices were created using a weighted contact network of connected hospital patients, in which contact was defined as occupying the same hospital unit for 1 day. Participants included hospitalized patients at 299 hospital units in 24 hospitals in the Southeastern United States that were part of the Duke Antimicrobial Stewardship Outreach Network between January 2015 and December 2017. Analysis was conducted between October 2021 and February 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The mixing matrices of patients for each hospital unit were assessed using age, Elixhauser Score, and a measure of antibiotic exposure. Results: Among 1â¯549â¯413 hospitalized patients (median [IQR] age, 44 [26-63] years; 883â¯580 [56.3%] women) in 299 hospital units, some units had highly similar patterns across multiple hospitals, although the number of patients varied to a great extent. For most of the adult inpatient units, frequent mixing was observed for older adult groups, while outpatient units (eg, emergency departments and behavioral health units) showed mixing between different age groups. Most units mixing patterns followed the marginal distribution of age; however, patients aged 90 years or older with longer lengths of stay created a secondary peak in some medical wards. From the mixing matrices by Elixhauser Score, mixing between patients with relatively higher comorbidity index was observed in intensive care units. Mixing matrices by antibiotic spectrum, a 4-point scale based on priority for antibiotic stewardship programs, resulted in 6 major distinct patterns owing to the variation of the type of antibiotics used in different units, namely those dominated by a single antibiotic spectrum (narrow, broad, or extended), 1 pattern spanning all antibiotic spectrum types and 2 forms of narrow- and extended-spectrum dominant exposure patterns (an emergency room where patients were exposed to one type of antibiotic or the other and a pediatric ward where patients were exposed to both types). Conclusions and Relevance: This quality improvement study found that the mixing patterns of patients both within and between hospitals followed broadly expected patterns, although with a considerable amount of heterogeneity. These patterns could be used to inform mathematical models of health care-associated infections, assess the appropriateness of both models and policies for smaller community hospitals, and provide baseline information for the design of interventions that rely on altering patient contact patterns, such as practices for transferring patients within hospitals.
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Gestão de Antimicrobianos , Infecção Hospitalar , Adulto , Idoso , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Infecção Hospitalar/epidemiologia , Feminino , Hospitais , Humanos , Pacientes Internados , MasculinoRESUMO
Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), which still infects hundreds of thousands of people globally each day despite various countermeasures, has been mutating rapidly. Mutations in the spike (S) protein seem to play a vital role in viral stability, transmission, and adaptability. Therefore, to control the spread of the virus, it is important to gain insight into the evolution and transmission of the S protein. This study deals with the temporal and geographical distribution of mutant S proteins from sequences gathered across the US over a period of 19 months in 2020 and 2021. The S protein sequences are studied using two approaches: (i) multiple sequence alignment is used to identify prominent mutations and highly mutable regions and (ii) sequence similarity networks are subsequently employed to gain further insight and study mutation profiles of concerning variants across the defined time periods and states. Additionally, we tracked the variants using visualizations on geographical maps. The visualizations produced using the Directed Weighted All Nearest Neighbors (DiWANN) networks and maps provided insights into the transmission of the virus that reflect well the statistics reported for the time periods studied. We found that the networks created using DiWANN are superior to commonly used approximate distance networks created using BLAST bitscores. The study offers a richer computational approach to analyze the transmission profile of the prominent S protein mutations in SARS-CoV-2 and can be extended to other proteins and viruses.
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COVID-19 , Glicoproteína da Espícula de Coronavírus , Humanos , Mutação , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Glicoproteína da Espícula de Coronavírus/genética , Glicoproteína da Espícula de Coronavírus/metabolismoRESUMO
Background: Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (MRSP) infections in companion animals are increasing and are difficult to treat. Environmental contamination with MRSP in small animal primary care hospitals may pose an exposure risk to animal patients. Methods: This longitudinal study assessed the genotypic relationships of MRSP isolated from 39 environmental samples collected from six private small animal primary care hospitals, in the north-eastern United States, between August 2018 and April 2019. Results: Of the 39 bacterial isolates, 18 unique pulsotypes were identified based on pulsed-field gel electrophoresis, including six clusters of two or more indistinguishable isolates. Single pulsotypes were frequently detected from multiple hand-contact and animal-contact surfaces within a hospital during a single sampling event, but detection of a single pulsotype within the same hospital on subsequent visits was infrequent. However, one pulsotype was recovered from three separate hospitals, which suggests that either MRSP transmission between hospitals may have occurred via people, animals, or fomites or that there was a dominant community strain. Conclusions: Single strains of MRSP were isolated from various hand-contact and animal-contact surfaces within hospitals, indicating the important role of humans, animals and the environment in MRSP transmission. Additionally, the detection of a single strain between hospitals and over time suggests that either MRSP transmission between hospitals may have occurred via people, animals or fomites or that there was a dominant community strain.
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BACKGROUND: Complex transmission models of healthcare-associated infections provide insight for hospital epidemiology and infection control efforts, but they are difficult to implement and come at high computational costs. Structuring more simplified models to incorporate the heterogeneity of the intensive care unit (ICU) patient-provider interactions, we explore how methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) dynamics and acquisitions may be better represented and approximated. METHODS: Using a stochastic compartmental model of an 18-bed ICU, we compared the rates of MRSA acquisition across three ICU population interaction structures: a model with nurses and physicians as a single staff type (SST), a model with separate staff types for nurses and physicians (Nurse-MD model), and a Metapopulation model where each nurse was assigned a group of patients. The proportion of time spent with the assigned patient group (γ) within the Metapopulation model was also varied. RESULTS: The SST, Nurse-MD, and Metapopulation models had a mean of 40.6, 32.2 and 19.6 annual MRSA acquisitions respectively. All models were sensitive to the same parameters in the same direction, although the Metapopulation model was less sensitive. The number of acquisitions varied non-linearly by values of γ, with values below 0.40 resembling the Nurse-MD model, while values above that converged toward the Metapopulation structure. DISCUSSION: Inclusion of complex population interactions within a modeled hospital ICU has considerable impact on model results, with the SST model having more than double the acquisition rate of the more structured metapopulation model. While the direction of parameter sensitivity remained the same, the magnitude of these differences varied, producing different colonization rates across relatively similar populations. The non-linearity of the model's response to differing values of a parameter gamma (γ) suggests simple model approximations are appropriate in only a narrow space of relatively dispersed nursing assignments. CONCLUSION: Simplifying assumptions around how a hospital population is modeled, especially assuming random mixing, may overestimate infection rates and the impact of interventions. In many, if not most, cases more complex models that represent population mixing with higher granularity are justified.
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Infecção Hospitalar , Staphylococcus aureus Resistente à Meticilina , Infecções Estafilocócicas , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Infecções Estafilocócicas/epidemiologia , Staphylococcus aureusRESUMO
At a time when antibiotic resistance is seemingly ubiquitous worldwide, understanding the mechanisms responsible for successful emergence of new resistance genes may provide insights into the persistence and pathways of dissemination for antibiotic-resistant organisms in general. For example, Escherichia coli strains harboring a class A ß-lactamase-encoding gene (blaCTX-M-15) appear to be displacing strains that harbor a class C ß-lactamase gene (blaCMY-2) in Washington State dairy cattle. We cloned these genes with native promoters into low-copy-number plasmids that were then transformed into isogenic strains of E. coli, and growth curves were generated for two commonly administered antibiotics (ampicillin and ceftiofur). Both strains met the definition of resistance for ampicillin (≥32 µg/mL) and ceftiofur (≥16 µg/mL). Growth of the CMY-2-producing strain was compromised at 1,000 µg/mL ampicillin, whereas the CTX-M-15-producing strain was not inhibited in the presence of 3,000 µg/mL ampicillin or with most concentrations of ceftiofur, although there were mixed outcomes with ceftiofur metabolites. Consequently, in the absence of competing genes, E. coli harboring either gene would experience a selective advantage if exposed to these antibiotics. Successful emergence of CTX-M-15-producing strains where CMY-2-producing strains are already established, however, requires high concentrations of antibiotics that can only be found in the urine of treated animals (e.g., >2,000 µg/mL for ampicillin, based on literature). This ex vivo selection pressure may be important for the emergence of new and more efficient antibiotic resistance genes and likely for persistence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in food animal populations. IMPORTANCE We studied the relative fitness benefits of a cephalosporin resistance enzyme (CTX-M-15) that is displacing a similar enzyme (CMY-2), which is extant in E. coli from dairy cattle in Washington State. In vitro experiments demonstrated that CTX-M-15 provides a significant fitness advantage, but only in the presence of very high concentrations of antibiotic that are only found when the antibiotic ampicillin, and to a lesser extent ceftiofur, is excreted in urine from treated animals. As such, the increasing prevalence of bacteria with blaCTX-M-15 is likely occurring ex vivo. Interventions should focus on controlling waste from treated animals and, when possible, selecting antibiotics that are less likely to impact the proximal environment of treated animals.
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Antibacterianos , Infecções por Escherichia coli , Ampicilina/farmacologia , Animais , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Bovinos , Resistência às Cefalosporinas , Escherichia coli/metabolismo , Infecções por Escherichia coli/microbiologia , Plasmídeos/genética , beta-Lactamases/genética , beta-Lactamases/metabolismoRESUMO
Vaccines against seasonal infections like influenza offer a recurring testbed, encompassing challenges in design, implementation, and uptake to combat a both familiar and ever-shifting threat. One of the pervading mysteries of influenza epidemiology is what causes the distinctive seasonal outbreak pattern. Proposed theories each suggest different paths forward in being able to tailor precision vaccines and/or deploy them most effectively. One of the greatest challenges in contrasting and supporting these theories is, of course, that there is no means by which to actually test them. In this communication we revisit theories and explore how the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic might provide a unique opportunity to better understand the global circulation of respiratory infections. We discuss how vaccine strategies may be targeted and improved by both isolating drivers and understanding the immunological consequences of seasonality, and how these insights about influenza vaccines may generalize to vaccines for other seasonal respiratory infections.
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COVID-19 , Vacinas contra Influenza , Influenza Humana , Infecções Respiratórias , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Infecções Respiratórias/prevenção & controleRESUMO
COVID-19 is challenging many societal institutions, including our criminal justice systems. Some have proposed or enacted (e.g., the State of New Jersey) reductions in the jail and/or prison populations. We present a mathematical model to explore the epidemiologic impact of such interventions in jails and contrast them with the consequences of maintaining unaltered practices. We consider infection risk and likely in-custody deaths, and estimate how within-jail dynamics lead to spill-over risks, not only affecting incarcerated people but increasing exposure, infection, and death rates for both corrections officers and the broader community beyond the justice system. We show that, given a typical jail-community dynamic, operating in a business-as-usual way results in substantial, rapid, and ongoing loss of life. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that large-scale reductions in arrest and speeding of releases are likely to save the lives of incarcerated people, jail staff, and the wider community.