Detecting iodine deficiency risks from dietary transitions using shopping data.

Plant-based product replacements are gaining popularity. However, the long-term health implications remain poorly understood, and available methods, though accurate, are expensive and burdensome, impeding the study of sufficiently large cohorts. To identify dietary transitions over time, we examine anonymised loyalty-card shopping records from Co-op Food, UK. We focus on 10,626 frequent customers who directly replaced milk with alternative milk. We then use product nutritional information to estimate weekly nutrient intake before and after the transition. 83% who converted to alternative milk saw a fall in iodine (44%), calcium (30%) and vitamin B12 (39%) consumption, with 57% reducing iodine purchase by more than 50%. The decline is even higher for those switching dairy and meat products. Our findings suggest that dietary transitions - such as replacing milk with alternative milk - could lead to nutritional deficiencies, notably iodine, which, if not addressed, may represent a significant public health concern, particularly in countries which do not mandate salt iodisation.

Assessing the value of integrating national longitudinal shopping data into respiratory disease forecasting models.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to unparalleled pressure on healthcare services. Improved healthcare planning in relation to diseases affecting the respiratory system has consequently become a key concern. We investigated the value of integrating sales of non-prescription medications commonly bought for managing respiratory symptoms, to improve forecasting of weekly registered deaths from respiratory disease at local levels across England, by using over 2 billion transactions logged by a UK high street retailer from March 2016 to March 2020. We report the results from the novel AI (Artificial Intelligence) explainability variable importance tool Model Class Reliance implemented on the PADRUS model (Prediction of Amount of Deaths by Respiratory disease Using Sales). PADRUS is a machine learning model optimised to predict registered deaths from respiratory disease in 314 local authority areas across England through the integration of shopping sales data and focused on purchases of non-prescription medications. We found strong evidence that models incorporating sales data significantly out-perform other models that solely use variables traditionally associated with respiratory disease (e.g. sociodemographics and weather data). Accuracy gains are highest (increases in R2 (coefficient of determination) between 0.09 to 0.11) in periods of maximum risk to the general public. Results demonstrate the potential to utilise sales data to monitor population health with information at a high level of geographic granularity.

Future improvements on performance of an EU landfill directive driven municipal solid waste management for a city in England.

Sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) management is regarded as one of the key elements for achieving urban sustainability via mitigating global climate change, recycling resources and recovering energy. Landfill is considered as the least preferable disposal method and the EU Landfill Directive (ELD) announced in 1999 requires member countries to reduce the volume of landfilled biodegradable materials. The enforcement of ELD initiated the evolution of MSW management system UK. This study depicted and assessed the transition and performance of MSW management after the millennium in Nottingham via materials flow analysis (MFA), as well as appropriately selected indicators based on the concept of waste management hierarchy and targets set in waste management regulations. We observed improvements in waste reduction, material recycling, energy recovery, and landfill prevention. During the period 2001/02 to 2016/17, annual waste generation reduced from 463 kg/Ca to 361 kg/Ca, the recycling and composting share increased from 4.6% to 44.4%, and the landfill share reduced from 54.7% to 7.3%. These signs of progress are believed to be driven by the ELD and the associated policies and waste management targets established at the national and local levels. An alternative scenario with food waste and textile separation at source and utilizing anaerobic digestion to treat separately collected organic waste is proposed at the end of this paper to fulfil the high targets set by local government and we further suggest that the recycling share may be improved by educating and supporting the public on waste separation at the sources.

A test of the Social Identity Model of Cessation Maintenance: The content and role of social control.

Engagement with self-help groups is a predictor of positive outcomes for those attempting to control their addictive behaviours. In common with other groups, self-help groups have to manage non-normative ('deviant') behaviour to ensure the social values of the group remain preserved, and the group can fulfil its aims. These processes may protect group members from relapse. Drawing on the Social Identity Model of Cessation Maintenance, the current study asked a number (n = 44) of attendees of fellowship (AA/NA/CA) and of SMART groups to list behaviours they saw as normative and deviant, and rate a variety of responses to deviant behaviours. Costs of relapse to both the self and the group were also measured alongside self-efficacy regarding cessation and identity as both an active addict and as a member of a self-help group. Results suggest that social control responses to deviance grouped into education, punishment and avoidant type responses. More social control was perceived by highly identifying self-help group members. Educational responses were seen as used by groups more extensively than other responses. Punishment responses were mediated by the perceived costs an individual's relapse incurred on the rest of the group. These findings inform our understanding of what standards of normative and deviant behaviour self-help groups hold, and how they react to violations of such norms. They also have a number of implications for practitioners and facilitators in regard to using social identities as part of the treatment process.