Depressive symptoms and cognitive decline in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: Few studies have examined the impact of late-life depression trajectories on specific domains of cognitive function. This study aims to delineate how different depressive symptom trajectories specifically affect cognitive function in older adults. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: Australia and the United States of America. PARTICIPANTS: In total, 11,035 community-dwelling older adults with a mean age of 75 years. MEASUREMENTS: Depressive trajectories were modelled from depressive symptoms according to annual Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale 10 (CES-D-10) surveys. Four trajectories of depressive symptoms were identified: low ("nondepressed"), consistently mild ("subthreshold depression"), consistently moderate ("persistent depression"), and initially low but increasing ("emerging depression"). Global cognition (Modified Mini-Mental State Examination [3MS]), verbal fluency (Controlled Oral Word Association Test [COWAT]), processing speed (Symbol Digit Modalities Test [SDMT]), episodic memory (Hopkins Verbal Learning Test - Revised [HVLT-R]), and a composite z-score were assessed over a subsequent median 2 years. RESULTS: Subthreshold depression predicted impaired performance on the SDMT (Cohen's d -0.04) and composite score (-0.03); emerging depression predicted impaired performance on the SDMT (-0.13), HVLT-R (-0.09), 3 MS (-0.08) and composite score (-0.09); and persistent depression predicted impaired performance on the SDMT (-0.08), 3 MS (-0.11), and composite score (-0.09). CONCLUSIONS: Depressive symptoms are associated with later impaired processing speed. These effects are small. Diverse depression trajectories have different impacts on cognitive function.

Trauma and comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder in people with bipolar disorder participating in the Heinz C. Prechter Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that up to 50 % of people with bipolar disorder (BD) also have comorbid post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, little is known about the presentation and treatment of people with this comorbidity. METHODS: Data from 577 individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder participating in the Heinz C. Prechter Longitudinal Study of BD were explored at baseline, year two and four. Three trauma groups were created: (i) one trauma (n = 75), (ii) multiple traumas (n = 417), and comorbid PTSD (n = 85). Measures of depression, mania, sleep, number of hospitalisations, suicide attempts, and medication use were analysed using regression modelling to determine differences between the three trauma groups. RESULTS: There was an increase in depression, mania, and sleep scores and a higher number of hospitalisations in participants with comorbid PTSD compared to those experiencing one trauma. Additionally, increased mania and depression scores were reported in participants experiencing multiple traumas compared to those with one trauma. There was no difference in medication use between those who experienced one trauma compared to those with comorbid PTSD. LIMITATIONS: The trauma groups may include confounding with more participants experiencing PTSD than reported in this study due to screening processes. Additionally, the severity of trauma was not recorded, therefore number of traumas was utilised as a proxy. CONCLUSION: Comorbid BD and PTSD is associated with worse symptom scores compared to participants reporting one trauma. Clinical implications include the addition of trauma-informed care to clinical settings to identify PTSD to provide appropriate treatments.

Fiber intake and fiber intervention in depression and anxiety: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and randomized controlled trials.

CONTEXT: Dietary fibers hold potential to influence depressive and anxiety outcomes by modulating the microbiota-gut-brain axis, which is increasingly recognized as an underlying factor in mental health maintenance. OBJECTIVE: Evidence for the effects of fibers on depressive and anxiety outcomes remains unclear. To this end, a systematic literature review and a meta-analysis were conducted that included observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). DATA SOURCES: The PubMed, Embase, CENTRAL, CINAHL, and PsychINFO databases were searched for eligible studies. DATA EXTRACTION: Study screening and risk-of-bias assessment were conducted by 2 independent reviewers. DATA ANALYSIS: Meta-analyses via random effects models were performed to examine the (1) association between fiber intake and depressive and anxiety outcomes in observational studies, and (2) effect of fiber intervention on depressive and anxiety outcomes compared with placebo in RCTs. A total of 181 405 participants were included in 23 observational studies. In cross-sectional studies, an inverse association was observed between fiber intake and depressive (Cohen's d effect size [d]: -0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.16, -0.05) and anxiety (d = -0.25; 95%CI, -0.38, -0.12) outcomes. In longitudinal studies, there was an inverse association between fiber intake and depressive outcomes (d = -0.07; 95%CI, -0.11, -0.04). In total, 740 participants were included in 10 RCTs, all of whom used fiber supplements. Of note, only 1 RCT included individuals with a clinical diagnosis of depression. No difference was found between fiber supplementation and placebo for depressive (d = -0.47; 95%CI, -1.26, 0.31) or anxiety (d = -0.30; 95%CI, -0.67, 0.07) outcomes. CONCLUSION: Although observational data suggest a potential benefit for higher fiber intake for depressive and anxiety outcomes, evidence from current RCTs does not support fiber supplementation for improving depressive or anxiety outcomes. More research, including RCTs in clinical populations and using a broad range of fibers, is needed. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration no. CRD42021274898.

High ultra-processed food consumption is associated with elevated psychological distress as an indicator of depression in adults from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have tested longitudinal associations between ultra-processed food consumption and depressive outcomes. As such, further investigation and replication are necessary. The aim of this study is to examine associations of ultra-processed food intake with elevated psychological distress as an indicator of depression after 15 years. METHOD: Data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were analysed (n = 23,299). We applied the NOVA food classification system to a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to determine ultra-processed food intake at baseline. We categorised energy-adjusted ultra-processed food consumption into quartiles by using the distribution of the dataset. Psychological distress was measured by the ten-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). We fitted unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models to assess the association of ultra-processed food consumption (exposure) with elevated psychological distress (outcome and defined as K10 ≥ 20). We fitted additional logistic regression models to determine whether these associations were modified by sex, age and body mass index. RESULTS: After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle and health-related behaviours, participants with the highest relative intake of ultra-processed food were at increased odds of elevated psychological distress compared to participants with the lowest intake (aOR: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.10, 1.38, p for trend = 0.001). We found no evidence for an interaction of sex, age and body mass index with ultra-processed food intake. CONCLUSION: Higher ultra-processed food intake at baseline was associated with subsequent elevated psychological distress as an indicator of depression at follow-up. Further prospective and intervention studies are necessary to identify possible underlying pathways, specify the precise attributes of ultra-processed food that confer harm, and optimise nutrition-related and public health strategies for common mental disorders.

Interpersonal Trauma and Depression Severity Among Individuals With Bipolar Disorder: Findings From the Prechter Longitudinal Study of Bipolar Disorder.

Background: Experiences of interpersonal trauma, both in childhood and in adulthood, can affect the trajectory of bipolar disorder (BD). However, the degree to which childhood and/or adult trauma impacts the longitudinal trajectory of depression severity among individuals with BD actively receiving treatment remains unclear.Methods: The effects of childhood trauma (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) and adult trauma (Life Events Checklist) on depression severity (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale) were investigated in a treatment-receiving subsample with BD (DSM-IV) of the Prechter Longitudinal Study of Bipolar Disorder (2005-present). A mixed-effects linear regression model was used to assess the trajectory of depression severity over 4 years.Results: Depression severity was evaluated in 360 participants, of whom 267 (74.8%) reported a history of interpersonal trauma. A history of childhood trauma alone (n = 110) and childhood and adult trauma combined (n = 108)-but not adult trauma alone (n = 49) -were associated with greater depression severity at the 2-year and 6-year follow-up assessments. However, the trajectory of depression severity (ie, change over time) was similar between participants with a history of childhood trauma, those with a history of adult trauma, and those with no history of interpersonal trauma. Interestingly, participants with a history of both types of trauma showed more improvement in depression severity (ie, from year 2 to year 4: ß = 1.67, P = .019).Conclusions: Despite actively receiving treatment for BD, participants with a history of interpersonal trauma-particularly childhood trauma-presented with more severe depressive symptoms at several follow-up assessments. Hence, interpersonal trauma may represent an essential treatment target.

Peri-Operative Risk Factors Associated with Post-Operative Cognitive Dysfunction (POCD): An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analyses of Observational Studies.

This umbrella review aimed to systematically identify the peri-operative risk factors associated with post-operative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) using meta-analyses of observational studies. To date, no review has synthesised nor assessed the strength of the available evidence examining risk factors for POCD. Database searches from journal inception to December 2022 consisted of systematic reviews with meta-analyses that included observational studies examining pre-, intra- and post-operative risk factors for POCD. A total of 330 papers were initially screened. Eleven meta-analyses were included in this umbrella review, which consisted of 73 risk factors in a total population of 67,622 participants. Most pertained to pre-operative risk factors (74%) that were predominantly examined using prospective designs and in cardiac-related surgeries (71%). Overall, 31 of the 73 factors (42%) were associated with a higher risk of POCD. However, there was no convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence for associations between risk factors and POCD, and suggestive evidence (class III) was limited to two risk factors (pre-operative age and pre-operative diabetes). Given that the overall strength of the evidence is limited, further large-scale studies that examine risk factors across various surgery types are recommended.

A cross-sectional health literacy profile of Australian regional adults using the Health Literacy Questionnaire©.

OBJECTIVE: Health literacy is the resources and abilities required to make and enact health decisions. This study aimed to describe the health literacy of a diverse cross-section of adults in regional Victoria. METHODS: Participants were recruited from two primary care clinics differing in socioeconomic scope and through non-clinical recruitment via the town's largest football club. Health Literacy Questionnaire© measured nine distinct scales, and comprehensive demographic data were also collected. Effect-sizes and regression were used for health literacy comparison between groups. RESULTS: In this sample of 351 adults, health literacy strengths were observed in Scale 1: 'Feeling understood and supported by healthcare providers' (mean 3.29/4 ±0.5) and Scale 9: 'Understanding health information well enough to know what to do' (mean 4.10/5 ±0.6). Challenging areas were Scale 5: 'Appraising health information' (mean 2.88/4 ±0.5) and Scale 7: 'Navigating the healthcare system' (mean 3.84/5 ±0.6). After adjustment, living alone predicted lower scores across most scales. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed greater health literacy barriers experienced by certain groups, particularly those who live alone and those who weren't clinically recruited. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: These findings have implications for further research into addressing health literacy barriers in marginalised individuals and non-clinical settings. Results from this study may inform interventions which address identified barriers.

The effect of depressive symptoms on disability-free survival in healthy older adults: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gerontology and ageing research are increasingly focussing on healthy life span (healthspan), the period of life lived free of serious disease and disability. Late-life depression (LLD) is believed to impact adversely on physical health. However, no studies have examined its effect on healthspan. This study investigated the effect of LLD and subthreshold depression on disability-free survival, a widely accepted measure of healthspan. METHODS: This prospective cohort study used data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study. Participants were aged ≥70 years (or ≥65 years for African-American and Hispanic participants) and free of dementia, physical disability and cardiovascular disease. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10). LLD and subthreshold depression were defined as CES-D-10 scores ≥8 and 3-7, respectively. Disability-free survival was defined as survival free of dementia and persistent physical disability. RESULTS: A total of 19,110 participants were followed up for a maximum of 7.3 years. In female participants, LLD was associated with lower disability-free survival adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, medical comorbidities, polypharmacy, physical function and antidepressant use (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.23-1.82). In male participants, LLD was associated with lower disability-free survival adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64). Subthreshold depression was also associated with lower disability-free survival in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: LLD may be a common and important risk factor for shortened healthspan.

Health literacy, dementia knowledge and perceived utility of digital health modalities among future health professionals.

OBJECTIVES: Studies of dementia knowledge (including dementia risk reduction) in health-care trainees highlight varying levels of understanding across countries and disciplines. This draws attention to the need for a well-trained health workforce with the knowledge to champion and implement such strategies. This study (a) assessed dementia knowledge and health literacy among a sample of Australian health-care students, (b) identified modality preferences of digital health interventions addressing dementia prevention and (c) examined potential relationships among health literacy, dementia knowledge, dementia prevention knowledge and a student's preferences for different digital health modalities. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey assessed dementia knowledge and health literacy in 727 health students across 16 Australian universities representing both metropolitan and regional cohorts. The All Aspects of Health Literacy Scale and the Dementia Knowledge Assessment Scale were administered. Questions about the perceived effectiveness of strategies and preferred digital health modalities for dementia prevention/risk reduction were asked. RESULTS: The students had relatively high health literacy scores. However, dementia knowledge and evidence-based dementia prevention knowledge were average. Only 7% claimed knowledge of available dementia-related digital health interventions. Associations among health literacy, dementia knowledge and dementia prevention, with recommendations for different digital modalities, are presented. CONCLUSIONS: Health-related degrees need to increase dementia knowledge, health literacy and knowledge of effective dementia-related digital health interventions. It is imperative to equip the future health workforce amid an ageing population with increased dementia rates and where evidence-based digital health interventions will increasingly be a source of support.

Personality traits as mediators of the relationship between childhood trauma and depression severity in bipolar disorder: A structural equation model.

BACKGROUND: Childhood trauma is negatively associated with depression severity in bipolar disorder; however, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We investigated whether personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, conscientiousness) mediate the relationship between childhood trauma and the severity of bipolar depression. METHODS: Data from 209 individuals with bipolar disorder recruited for the Prechter Longitudinal Study of Bipolar Disorder were analysed. Using structural equation modelling, we examined the direct and indirect associations between childhood trauma (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire) and depression severity (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale) - with the personality traits (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised) as mediators. RESULTS: The direct effect of childhood trauma on depression severity (standardised ß = 0.32, 95% bootstrap confidence interval [CI] = 0.20-0.45, p < 0.001) and the indirect effect via neuroticism (standardised ß = 0.03, 95% bootstrap CI [0.002, 0.07], p = 0.039) were significant; supporting a partial mediation model. The indirect effect accounted for 9% of the total effect of childhood trauma on depression severity (standardised ß = 0.09, 95% bootstrap CI [0.002, 0.19], p = 0.046). The final model had a good fit with the data (comparative fit index = 0.96; root mean square error of approximation = 0.05, 90% CI = [0.02, 0.07]). CONCLUSION: Personality traits may be relevant psychological mediators that link childhood trauma to a more severe clinical presentation of bipolar depression. Consequently, a person's personality structure may be a crucial operative factor to incorporate in therapeutic plans when treating individuals with bipolar disorder who report a history of childhood trauma.

Coping with COVID-19: Exploring coping strategies, distress, and post-traumatic growth during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia.

Objective: This study aimed to explore coping strategies, distress, and post-traumatic growth among Australians with and without a history of a mental health diagnosis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods: Australians (N = 381) completed an online survey between 4-August 2020 and 25-October-2020. Coping strategies, distress, and post-traumatic growth were ascertained via the Brief COPE, Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21), and Post-Traumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI), respectively. Linear regression was conducted to examine the relationship between the Brief COPE, DASS-21, and PTGI, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Models were conducted separately for those with/without a history of a mental health diagnosis. Results: Higher distress was found among those with a history of a mental health diagnosis. Significant differences in the types of coping strategies associated with distress and post-traumatic growth were identified between the groups, however, behavioral disengagement and self-blame consistently predicted depression, anxiety, and stress. For those with a history of a mental health diagnosis, positive reframing decreased anxiety. Self-distraction was associated with post-traumatic growth across both groups. Conclusion: There are important differences in the way people with and without a history of a mental health diagnosis cope with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Higher Ultra-Processed Food Consumption Is Associated with Greater High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Concentration in Adults: Cross-Sectional Results from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.

Background: Few studies have examined associations between ultra-processed food intake and biomarkers of inflammation, and inconsistent results have been reported in the small number of studies that do exist. As such, further investigation is required. Methods: Cross-sectional baseline data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were analysed (n = 2018). We applied the NOVA food classification system to data from a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to determine ultra-processed food intake (g/day). The outcome was high-sensitivity C-reactive protein concentration (hsCRP; mg/L). We fitted unadjusted and adjusted linear regression analyses, with sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle- and health-related behaviours as covariates. Supplementary analyses further adjusted for body mass index (kg/m2). Sex was assessed as a possible effect modifier. Ultra-processed food intake was modelled as 100 g increments and the magnitude of associations expressed as estimated relative change in hsCRP concentration with accompanying 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). Results: After adjustment, every 100 g increase in ultra-processed food intake was associated with a 4.0% increase in hsCRP concentration (95%CIs: 2.1−5.9%, p < 0.001). Supplementary analyses showed that part of this association was independent of body mass index (estimated relative change in hsCRP: 2.5%; 95%CIs: 0.8−4.3%, p = 0.004). No interaction was observed between sex and ultra-processed food intake. Conclusion: Higher ultra-processed food intake was cross-sectionally associated with elevated hsCRP, which appeared to occur independent of body mass index. Future prospective and intervention studies are necessary to confirm directionality and whether the observed association is causal.

Ultra-Processed Food Consumption and Mental Health: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

Since previous meta-analyses, which were limited only to depression and by a small number of studies available for inclusion at the time of publication, several additional studies have been published assessing the link between ultra-processed food consumption and depression as well as other mental disorders. We aimed to build on previously conducted reviews to synthesise and meta-analyse the contemporary evidence base and clarify the associations between the consumption of ultra-processed food and mental disorders. A total of 17 observational studies were included (n = 385,541); 15 cross-sectional and 2 prospective. Greater ultra-processed food consumption was cross-sectionally associated with increased odds of depressive and anxiety symptoms, both when these outcomes were assessed together (common mental disorder symptoms odds ratio: 1.53, 95%CI 1.43 to 1.63) as well as separately (depressive symptoms odds ratio: 1.44, 95%CI 1.14 to 1.82; and, anxiety symptoms odds ratio: 1.48, 95%CI 1.37 to 1.59). Furthermore, a meta-analysis of prospective studies demonstrated that greater ultra-processed food intake was associated with increased risk of subsequent depression (hazard ratio: 1.22, 95%CI 1.16 to 1.28). While we found evidence for associations between ultra-processed food consumption and adverse mental health, further rigorously designed prospective and experimental studies are needed to better understand causal pathways.

Health literacy and cardiovascular disease prevention: a systematic scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Health literacy is 'The skills and resources of a person to access, understand and use information to make decisions, and take action on their own health and healthcare'. Literature investigating cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention and health literacy often exist in silos, only exploring one element of prevention. This protocol aims to establish a scoping method of articles investigating health literacy and CVD preventive practices or knowledge in lay populations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review was deemed the most appropriate study design. The topic was conceptualised, with preliminary searching informing subsequent development of search strings. A search of the following databases will be conducted on 31 January 2022: MEDLINE, Global Health, PubMed, Embase, PsycINFO and CINAHL. Studies included will be published in English, of appropriate design, measuring health literacy and some aspect of primary CVD prevention in lay-populations. These criteria will be tested against 25 'pilot' articles from the results, undergoing necessary review before screening commences. A secondary author will screen 10% of abstracts, with a third subject-matter expert reviewing conflicts. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This review will be disseminated through peer-reviewed scholarly networks, most likely including journal publication and conference presentation. ARTICLE SUMMARY: CVD is the leading cause of death around the world. This paper proposes an exploration of health literacy's relationship with CVD prevention as a whole, contrasting with the more segmented reviews currently published.

Prioritising Responses Of Nurses To deteriorating patient Observations (PRONTO): a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a facilitation intervention on recognition and response to clinical deterioration.

BACKGROUND: Most hospitals use physiological signs to trigger an urgent clinical review. We investigated whether facilitation could improve nurses' vital sign measurement, interpretation, treatment and escalation of care for deteriorating patients. METHODS: In a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial, we randomised 36 inpatient wards at four acute hospitals to receive standard clinical practice guideline (CPG) dissemination to ward staff (n=18) or facilitated implementation for 6 months following standard dissemination (n=18). Expert, hospital and ward facilitators tailored facilitation techniques to promote nurses' CPG adherence. Patient records were audited pre-intervention, 6 and 12 months post-intervention on randomly selected days. Escalation of care as per hospital policy was the primary outcome at 6 and 12 months after implementation. Patients, nurses and assessors were blinded to group assignment. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. RESULTS: From 10 383 audits, improved escalation as per hospital policy was evident in the intervention group at 6 months (OR 1.47, 95% CI (1.06 to 2.04)) with a complete set of vital sign measurements sustained at 12 months (OR 1.22, 95% CI (1.02 to 1.47)). There were no significant differences in escalation of care as per hospital policy between study groups at 6 or 12 months post-intervention. After adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics, a significant change from T0 in mean length of stay between groups at 12 months favoured the intervention group (-2.18 days, 95% CI (-3.53 to -0.82)). CONCLUSION: Multi-level facilitation significantly improved escalation as per hospital policy at 6 months in the intervention group that was not sustained at 12 months. The intervention group had increased vital sign measurement by nurses, as well as shorter lengths of stay for patients at 12 months. Further research is required to understand the dose of facilitation required to impact clinical practice behaviours and patient outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12616000544471p.

Attachment insecurity partially mediates the relationship between childhood trauma and depression severity in bipolar disorder.

BACKGROUND: Childhood trauma is associated with greater depression severity among individuals with bipolar disorder. However, the mechanisms that explain the link between childhood trauma and depression severity in bipolar disorder remain poorly understood. The mediational role of attachment insecurity in childhood and adulthood was assessed in the current study. METHODS: Participants with bipolar disorder (N = 143) completed measures of childhood trauma (Childhood Trauma Questionnaire), attachment insecurity (Experiences in Close Relationships Scale) and depression severity (Hamilton Depression Rating Scale) as part of the Prechter Longitudinal Study of Bipolar Disorder. A sequential mediation model was tested using path analysis: the direct and indirect effects of childhood trauma on depression severity with attachment insecurity (attachment anxiety and avoidance) in childhood (mother and father) and adulthood (partner) as mediators were estimated. RESULTS: The final path model demonstrated an excellent fit to the data (comparative fit index = 0.996; root mean square error of approximation = 0.021 [90% confidence interval = 0.000-0.073]). Supporting the hypothesised sequential mediation model, maternal attachment anxiety in childhood and romantic attachment avoidance in adulthood partially mediated the relationship between childhood trauma and depression severity; this effect accounted for 12% of the total effect of childhood trauma on depression severity. CONCLUSION: Attachment insecurity in childhood and adulthood form part of the complex mechanism informing why people with bipolar disorder who have a history of childhood trauma experience greater depression severity. Addressing attachment insecurity represents a valuable psychotherapeutic treatment target for bipolar disorder.

Performance of Stepwise Screening Methods in Identifying Individuals at High Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in an Iranian Population.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence recommended stepwise screening methods for identifying individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes to be recruited in the lifestyle intervention programs for the prevention of the disease. This study aims to assess the performance of different stepwise screening methods that combine non-invasive measurements with lab-based measurements for identifying those with 5-years incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: 3037 participants aged ≥30 years without diabetes at baseline in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) were followed. Thirty-two stepwise screening methods were developed by combining a non-invasive measurement (an anthropometric measurement (waist-to-height ratio, WtHR) or a score based on a non-invasive risk score [Australian Type 2 Diabetes Risk Assessment Tool, AUSDRISK]) with a lab-based measurement (different cut-offs of fasting plasma glucose [FPG] or predicted risk based on three lab-based prediction models [Saint Antonio, SA; Framingham Offspring Study, FOS; and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, ARIC]). The validation, calibration, and usefulness of lab-based prediction models were assessed before developing the stepwise screening methods. Cut-offs were derived either based on previous studies or decision-curve analyses. RESULTS: 203 participants developed diabetes in 5 years. Lab-based risk prediction models had good discrimination power (area under the curves [AUCs]: 0.80-0.83), achieved acceptable calibration and net benefits after recalibration for population's characteristics and were useful in a wide range of risk thresholds (5%-21%). Different stepwise methods had sensitivity ranged 20%-68%, specificity 70%-98%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 14%-46%; they identified 3%-33% of the screened population eligible for preventive interventions. CONCLUSION: Stepwise methods have acceptable performance in identifying those at high risk of incident type 2 diabetes.

An office-based cardiovascular prediction model developed and validated in cohort studies of a middle-income country.

OBJECTIVE: Prediction models for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality come from high-income countries, comprising laboratory measurements, not suitable for resource-limited countries. This study aims to develop and validate a non-laboratory model to predict CVD mortality in a middle-income setting. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data of population aged 40-80 years from three cohort studies: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (n = 5160), Isfahan Cohort Study (n = 4350), and Golestan Cohort Study (n = 45,500). Using Cox proportional hazard models, we developed prediction models for men and women, separately. Cross-validation and bootstrapping procedures were applied. The models' discrimination and calibration were assessed by concordance statistic (C-index) and calibration plot, respectively. We calculated the models' sensitivity, specificity and net benefit fraction in a threshold probability of 5%. RESULTS: The 10-year CVD mortality risks were 5.1% (95%CI: 4.8-5.5) in men and 3.1% (95%CI: 2.9%-3.3%) in women. The optimism-corrected performance of the model was c = 0.774 in men and c = 0.798 in women. The models showed good calibration in both sexes, with a predicted-to-observed ratio of 1.07 in men and 1.09 in women. The sensitivity was 0.76 in men and 0.66 in women. The net benefit fraction was higher in men compared to women (0.46 vs. 0.35). CONCLUSION: A low-cost model can discriminate well between low- and high-risk individuals, and can be used for screening in low-middle income countries.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms in older adults and associated health outcomes.

With the progressive aging of the world's population, prolongation of a healthy lifespan in old age has become a medical research priority. The presence of depressive symptoms in later life is associated with poor health prognosis and increased mortality1,2. Here we explore distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms in later life and their association with several health-related outcomes in 19,110 older individuals followed for a median of 4.7 years. Using a latent class, mixed-modeling approach we identified four distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms with scoring patterns of consistently low, moderate, emerging and persistently high. Compared to those with minimal depressive symptoms, membership of any other class was associated with specific patterns of baseline sociodemographic and medical factors. Membership of any group with depressive symptoms was associated with a higher likelihood of health events, including physical disability, cancer and major bleeding episodes. Membership of the persistently depressed class was associated with increased mortality, while a diagnosis of dementia was generally limited to the class with initially low and progressively rising symptoms. The course of depressive symptoms in older individuals can vary widely and depend on several factors. The presence of depressive symptoms, including those that do not meet criteria for major depression, can flag a poor prognosis and risk for specific health conditions. Systematic assessment of depressive symptoms may facilitate early identification of at-risk populations.