Access to care for low trauma hip fractures in South Africa.

RATIONALE: Early surgery is recommended for hip fractures. MAIN RESULT: In this study only one-third of subjects with hip fractures were admitted within 24 h of the fracture, and surgery was delayed beyond 48 h in the majority. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings highlight the need to improve access to care for hip fracture subjects. PURPOSE: There is limited data on the timing of admission and surgery following a low trauma hip fracture (HF) in South Africa (SA). METHODS: A prospective, observational study was conducted at public and private hospitals in three provinces, Gauteng (GP), KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the Western Cape (WC), in SA to determine time from fracture to admission and from admission to surgery in patients presenting with low trauma HF. Associations with delayed admission and surgery were explored using logistic regression. RESULTS: The median age of the 1996 subjects was 73 years (IQR 63-81 years), the majority were women (1346, 67%) and 1347 (67%) were admitted to the public hospitals. In one-third of subjects (661, 33%), admission was delayed to beyond 24 h after the fracture. There was a significantly longer time to admission in public compared to private hospitals (21 h [IQR 10.0-48.5] versus 6 h [IQR 3.3-14.1], p < 0.001), in subjects < 65 years, the WC and when admission occurred on a weekday. Surgery was delayed beyond 48 h in the majority (1272, 69%) of subjects and was significantly longer in public compared to private hospitals (130 h [IQR 62.6-212.4] versus 45.4 h [IQR 24.0-75.5], p < 0.001), in KZN, and when admission occurred after hours. CONCLUSION: The burden of HFs is higher at public hospitals in SA, where there is a significant delay in admission after a fracture and surgery after admission. This highlights the need for a review of HF care pathways, resources and policies.

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and fatality risk in Gauteng Province, South Africa: a population-based seroepidemiological survey.

BACKGROUND: Limitations in laboratory testing capacity undermine the ability to quantify the overall burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We undertook a population-based serosurvey for SARS-CoV-2 infection in 26 subdistricts, Gauteng Province (population 15.9 million), South Africa, to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection fatality rate (IFR) triangulating seroprevalence, recorded COVID-19 deaths and excess-mortality data. We employed three-stage random household sampling with a selection probability proportional to the subdistrict size, stratifying the subdistrict census-sampling frame by housing type and then selecting households from selected clusters. The survey started on 4 November 2020, 8 weeks after the end of the first wave (SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test positivity had declined to <10% for the first wave) and coincided with the peak of the second wave. The last sampling was performed on 22 January 2021, which was 9 weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 resurgence. Serum SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin-G (IgG) was measured using a quantitative assay on the Luminex platform. RESULTS: From 6332 individuals in 3453 households, the overall RBD IgG seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1-20.1%] and similar in children and adults. The seroprevalence varied from 5.5% to 43.2% across subdistricts. Conservatively, there were 2 897 120 (95% CI: 2 743 907-3 056 866) SARS-CoV-2 infections, yielding an infection rate of 19 090 per 100 000 until 9 January 2021, when 330 336 COVID-19 cases were recorded. The estimated IFR using recorded COVID-19 deaths (n = 8198) was 0.28% (95% CI: 0.27-0.30) and 0.67% (95% CI: 0.64-0.71) assuming 90% of modelled natural excess deaths were due to COVID-19 (n = 21 582). Notably, 53.8% (65/122) of individuals with previous self-reported confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were RBD IgG seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: The calculated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 7.8-fold greater than the recorded COVID-19 cases. The calculated SARS-CoV-2 IFR varied 2.39-fold when calculated using reported COVID-19 deaths (0.28%) compared with excess-mortality-derived COVID-19-attributable deaths (0.67%). Waning RBD IgG may have inadvertently underestimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and conversely overestimated the mortality risk. Epidemic preparedness and response planning for future COVID-19 waves will need to consider the true magnitude of infections, paying close attention to excess-mortality trends rather than absolute reported COVID-19 deaths.

FRAX-based fracture probabilities in South Africa.

The hip fracture rates in South Africa were used to create ethnic-specific FRAX® models to facilitate fracture risk assessment. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to develop FRAX models to compute the 10-year probability of hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture and assess their potential clinical application. METHODS: Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for the White, Black African, Coloured and Indian population of South Africa. Age-specific 10-year probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture were calculated in women to determine fracture probabilities at a femoral neck T score of -2.5 SD, or those equivalent to a woman with a prior fragility fracture. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from selected countries. RESULTS: Probabilities were consistently higher in Indian than in Coloured men and women, in turn, higher than in Black South Africans. For White South Africans, probabilities were lower than in Indians at young ages up to the age of about 80 years. When a BMD T score of -2.5 SD was used as an intervention threshold, FRAX probabilities in women age 50 years were approximately 2-fold higher than in women of the same age but with an average BMD and no risk factors. The increment in risk associated with the BMD threshold decreased progressively with age such that, at the age of 80 years or more, a T score of -2.5 SD was no longer a risk factor. Probabilities equivalent to women with a previous fracture rose with age and identified women at increased risk at all ages. CONCLUSIONS: These FRAX models should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability amongst the South African population and help guide decisions about treatment.

Inpatient mortality after elective primary total hip and knee joint arthroplasty in Botswana.

PURPOSE: Total hip and knee joint arthroplasty (TJA) rank among the most successful orthopaedic operations. Several developing countries in Africa have started to perform these procedures that are routine in developed countries. The aims of this study were to measure the incidence and assess the determinants of in-hospital mortality after elective primary TJA in our unit and compare it with published data. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of the first consecutive cohort of patients who underwent elective primary TJA in Princess Marina Hospital, Botswana between March 2009 and October 2015 (6.5 years). RESULTS: 346 elective joint replacements were performed comprising 153 total hip arthroplasties (THA) and 193 total knee arthroplasties (TKA); 36 % of the THA were in female patients and 82 % of TKA were in females. The mean age was 64.5 years (range 26-86). Three patients died giving an inpatient mortality rate of 0.86 %. These three mortalities represent 1.55 % (three out of 193) of all the TKA. There were no deaths after THA. The cause of mortality in two patients was an adverse cardiac event while the third mortality was due to pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: The inpatient mortality rate of 0.86 % following TJA is higher than the reported rates in the developed countries but comparable with data from other developing countries. The inpatient mortality rate following TKA was higher than that following THA and cardiovascular events proved to be the main cause of death. We recommend formal cardiology assessment and close peri-operative monitoring of all patients with a history of cardiovascular disease undergoing TJA.