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1.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38774820

RESUMO

We present MacKenzie, a HPC-driven multi-cluster workflow system that was used repeatedly to configure and execute fine-grained US national-scale epidemic simulation models during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mackenzie supported federal and Virginia policymakers, in real-time, for a large number of "what-if" scenarios during the COVID-19 pandemic, and continues to be used to answer related questions as COVID-19 transitions to the endemic stage of the disease. MacKenzie is a novel HPC meta-scheduler that can execute US-scale simulation models and associated workflows that typically present significant big data challenges. The meta-scheduler optimizes the total execution time of simulations in the workflow, and helps improve overall human productivity. As an exemplar of the kind of studies that can be conducted using Mackenzie, we present a modeling study to understand the impact of vaccine-acceptance in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the US. We use a 288 million node synthetic social contact network (digital twin) spanning all 50 US states plus Washington DC, comprised of 3300 counties, with 12 billion daily interactions. The highly-resolved agent-based model used for the epidemic simulations uses realistic information about disease progression, vaccine uptake, production schedules, acceptance trends, prevalence, and social distancing guidelines. Computational experiments show that, for the simulation workload discussed above, MacKenzie is able to scale up well to 10K CPU cores. Our modeling results show that, when compared to faster and accelerating vaccinations, slower vaccination rates due to vaccine hesitancy cause averted infections to drop from 6.7M to 4.5M, and averted total deaths to drop from 39.4K to 28.2K across the US. This occurs despite the fact that the final vaccine coverage is the same in both scenarios. We also find that if vaccine acceptance could be increased by 10% in all states, averted infections could be increased from 4.5M to 4.7M (a 4.4% improvement) and total averted deaths could be increased from 28.2K to 29.9K (a 6% improvement) nationwide.

2.
Methods Mol Biol ; 2802: 547-571, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38819571

RESUMO

As genomic and related data continue to expand, research biologists are often hampered by the computational hurdles required to analyze their data. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) established the Bioinformatics Resource Centers (BRC) to assist researchers with their analysis of genome sequence and other omics-related data. Recently, the PAThosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC), the Influenza Research Database (IRD), and the Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR) BRCs merged to form the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC) at https://www.bv-brc.org/ . The combined BV-BRC leverages the functionality of the original resources for bacterial and viral research communities with a unified data model, enhanced web-based visualization and analysis tools, and bioinformatics services. Here we demonstrate how antimicrobial resistance data can be analyzed in the new resource.


Assuntos
Bactérias , Biologia Computacional , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Genômica , Genômica/métodos , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana/genética , Bactérias/genética , Bactérias/efeitos dos fármacos , Humanos , Software , Genoma Bacteriano , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Navegador , Estados Unidos , National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.)
3.
PLoS Med ; 21(4): e1004387, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38630802

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Hospitalização , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinação , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/imunologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Masculino
4.
medRxiv ; 2023 Nov 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37961207

RESUMO

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

5.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 17: 100398, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36437905

RESUMO

Background: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses. Findings: Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed. Interpretation: Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants. Funding: Various (see acknowledgments).

6.
Nucleic Acids Res ; 51(D1): D678-D689, 2023 01 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36350631

RESUMO

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) established the Bioinformatics Resource Center (BRC) program to assist researchers with analyzing the growing body of genome sequence and other omics-related data. In this report, we describe the merger of the PAThosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC), the Influenza Research Database (IRD) and the Virus Pathogen Database and Analysis Resource (ViPR) BRCs to form the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Resource Center (BV-BRC) https://www.bv-brc.org/. The combined BV-BRC leverages the functionality of the bacterial and viral resources to provide a unified data model, enhanced web-based visualization and analysis tools, bioinformatics services, and a powerful suite of command line tools that benefit the bacterial and viral research communities.


Assuntos
Genômica , Software , Vírus , Humanos , Bactérias/genética , Biologia Computacional , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Influenza Humana , Vírus/genética
7.
Int J High Perform Comput Appl ; 37(1): 4-27, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38603425

RESUMO

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning and response. The pipeline consists of (i) an automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; (ii) a data pipeline to collect, integrate and organize national and county-level disaggregated data for initialization and post-simulation analysis; (iii) a digital twin of national social contact networks made up of 288 Million individuals and 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states and DC; (iv) an extension of a parallel agent-based simulation model to study epidemic dynamics and associated interventions. This pipeline can run 400 replicates of national runs in less than 33 h, and reduces the need for human intervention, resulting in faster turnaround times and higher reliability and accuracy of the results. Scientifically, the work has led to significant advances in real-time epidemic sciences.

8.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 743, 2022 Sep 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36127637

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Lockdowns imposed throughout the US to control the COVID-19 pandemic led to a decline in all routine immunizations rates, including the MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) vaccine. It is feared that post-lockdown, these reduced MMR rates will lead to a resurgence of measles. METHODS: To measure the potential impact of reduced MMR vaccination rates on measles outbreak, this research examines several counterfactual scenarios in pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 era. An agent-based modeling framework is used to simulate the spread of measles on a synthetic yet realistic social network of Virginia. The change in vulnerability of various communities to measles due to reduced MMR rate is analyzed. RESULTS: Results show that a decrease in vaccination rate [Formula: see text] has a highly non-linear effect on the number of measles cases and this effect grows exponentially beyond a threshold [Formula: see text]. At low vaccination rates, faster isolation of cases and higher compliance to home-isolation are not enough to control the outbreak. The overall impact on urban and rural counties is proportional to their population size but the younger children, African Americans and American Indians are disproportionately infected and hence are more vulnerable to the reduction in the vaccination rate. CONCLUSIONS: At low vaccination rates, broader interventions are needed to control the outbreak. Identifying the cause of the decline in vaccination rates (e.g., low income) can help design targeted interventions which can dampen the disproportional impact on more vulnerable populations and reduce disparities in health. Per capita burden of the potential measles resurgence is equivalent in the rural and the urban communities and hence proportionally equitable public health resources should be allocated to rural regions.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Sarampo , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Criança , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola , Pandemias , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
9.
Elife ; 112022 06 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35726851

RESUMO

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Vacinação
10.
medRxiv ; 2022 Mar 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35313593

RESUMO

Background: SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains. Methods: Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches. Findings: Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts. Conclusions: Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

11.
medRxiv ; 2021 Sep 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34494030

RESUMO

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC?: The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT?: Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE?: Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

12.
Brief Bioinform ; 22(6)2021 11 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34379107

RESUMO

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a major global health threat that affects millions of people each year. Funding agencies worldwide and the global research community have expended considerable capital and effort tracking the evolution and spread of AMR by isolating and sequencing bacterial strains and performing antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). For the last several years, we have been capturing these efforts by curating data from the literature and data resources and building a set of assembled bacterial genome sequences that are paired with laboratory-derived AST data. This collection currently contains AST data for over 67 000 genomes encompassing approximately 40 genera and over 100 species. In this paper, we describe the characteristics of this collection, highlighting areas where sampling is comparatively deep or shallow, and showing areas where attention is needed from the research community to improve sampling and tracking efforts. In addition to using the data to track the evolution and spread of AMR, it also serves as a useful starting point for building machine learning models for predicting AMR phenotypes. We demonstrate this by describing two machine learning models that are built from the entire dataset to show where the predictive power is comparatively high or low. This AMR metadata collection is freely available and maintained on the Bacterial and Viral Bioinformatics Center (BV-BRC) FTP site ftp://ftp.bvbrc.org/RELEASE_NOTES/PATRIC_genomes_AMR.txt.


Assuntos
Biologia Computacional/métodos , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos , Genômica/métodos , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Inteligência Artificial , Bactérias/efeitos dos fármacos , Bactérias/genética , Genoma Bacteriano , Humanos , Laboratórios , Aprendizado de Máquina , Fenótipo
13.
medRxiv ; 2021 Feb 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33655263

RESUMO

The COVID-19 global outbreak represents the most significant epidemic event since the 1918 influenza pandemic. Simulations have played a crucial role in supporting COVID-19 planning and response efforts. Developing scalable workflows to provide policymakers quick responses to important questions pertaining to logistics, resource allocation, epidemic forecasts and intervention analysis remains a challenging computational problem. In this work, we present scalable high performance computing-enabled workflows for COVID-19 pandemic planning and response. The scalability of our methodology allows us to run fine-grained simulations daily, and to generate county-level forecasts and other counter-factual analysis for each of the 50 states (and DC), 3140 counties across the USA. Our workflows use a hybrid cloud/cluster system utilizing a combination of local and remote cluster computing facilities, and using over 20,000 CPU cores running for 6-9 hours every day to meet this objective. Our state (Virginia), state hospital network, our university, the DOD and the CDC use our models to guide their COVID-19 planning and response efforts. We began executing these pipelines March 25, 2020, and have delivered and briefed weekly updates to these stakeholders for over 30 weeks without interruption.

14.
PLoS One ; 15(11): e0242453, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33232347

RESUMO

There is large interest in networked social science experiments for understanding human behavior at-scale. Significant effort is required to perform data analytics on experimental outputs and for computational modeling of custom experiments. Moreover, experiments and modeling are often performed in a cycle, enabling iterative experimental refinement and data modeling to uncover interesting insights and to generate/refute hypotheses about social behaviors. The current practice for social analysts is to develop tailor-made computer programs and analytical scripts for experiments and modeling. This often leads to inefficiencies and duplication of effort. In this work, we propose a pipeline framework to take a significant step towards overcoming these challenges. Our contribution is to describe the design and implementation of a software system to automate many of the steps involved in analyzing social science experimental data, building models to capture the behavior of human subjects, and providing data to test hypotheses. The proposed pipeline framework consists of formal models, formal algorithms, and theoretical models as the basis for the design and implementation. We propose a formal data model, such that if an experiment can be described in terms of this model, then our pipeline software can be used to analyze data efficiently. The merits of the proposed pipeline framework is elaborated by several case studies of networked social science experiments.


Assuntos
Processamento Eletrônico de Dados , Modelos Teóricos , Comportamento Social , Ciências Sociais/métodos , Software , Algoritmos , Humanos
15.
medRxiv ; 2020 Oct 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33140060

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic brought to the forefront an unprecedented need for experts, as well as citizens, to visualize spatio-temporal disease surveillance data. Web application dashboards were quickly developed to fill this gap, including those built by JHU, WHO, and CDC, but all of these dashboards supported a particular niche view of the pandemic (ie, current status or specific regions). In this paper, we describe our work developing our own COVID-19 Surveillance Dashboard, available at https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/, which offers a universal view of the pandemic while also allowing users to focus on the details that interest them. From the beginning, our goal was to provide a simple visual way to compare, organize, and track near-real-time surveillance data as the pandemic progresses. Our dashboard includes a number of advanced features for zooming, filtering, categorizing and visualizing multiple time series on a single canvas. In developing this dashboard, we have also identified 6 key metrics we call the 6Cs standard which we propose as a standard for the design and evaluation of real-time epidemic science dashboards. Our dashboard was one of the first released to the public, and remains one of the most visited and highly used. Our group uses it to support federal, state and local public health authorities, and it is used by people worldwide to track the pandemic evolution, build their own dashboards, and support their organizations as they plan their responses to the pandemic. We illustrate the utility of our dashboard by describing how it can be used to support data story-telling - an important emerging area in data science.

16.
medRxiv ; 2020 Feb 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32511466

RESUMO

Global airline networks play a key role in the global importation of emerging infectious diseases. Detailed information on air traffic between international airports has been demonstrated to be useful in retrospectively validating and prospectively predicting case emergence in other countries. In this paper, we use a well-established metric known as effective distance on the global air traffic data from IATA to quantify risk of emergence for different countries as a consequence of direct importation from China, and compare it against arrival times for the first 24 countries. Using this model trained on official first reports from WHO, we estimate time of arrival (ToA) for all other countries. We then incorporate data on airline suspensions to recompute the effective distance and assess the effect of such cancellations in delaying the estimated arrival time for all other countries. Finally we use the infectious disease vulnerability indices to explain some of the estimated reporting delays.

17.
Nucleic Acids Res ; 48(D1): D606-D612, 2020 01 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31667520

RESUMO

The PathoSystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) is the bacterial Bioinformatics Resource Center funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (https://www.patricbrc.org). PATRIC supports bioinformatic analyses of all bacteria with a special emphasis on pathogens, offering a rich comparative analysis environment that provides users with access to over 250 000 uniformly annotated and publicly available genomes with curated metadata. PATRIC offers web-based visualization and comparative analysis tools, a private workspace in which users can analyze their own data in the context of the public collections, services that streamline complex bioinformatic workflows and command-line tools for bulk data analysis. Over the past several years, as genomic and other omics-related experiments have become more cost-effective and widespread, we have observed considerable growth in the usage of and demand for easy-to-use, publicly available bioinformatic tools and services. Here we report the recent updates to the PATRIC resource, including new web-based comparative analysis tools, eight new services and the release of a command-line interface to access, query and analyze data.


Assuntos
Bactérias/genética , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Algoritmos , Animais , Caenorhabditis elegans/genética , Galinhas/genética , Drosophila melanogaster/genética , Interações Hospedeiro-Patógeno/genética , Humanos , Internet , Macaca mulatta/genética , Metagenômica , Camundongos , National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U.S.) , Fenótipo , Filogenia , Ratos , Suínos/genética , Estados Unidos , Peixe-Zebra/genética
18.
Brief Bioinform ; 20(4): 1094-1102, 2019 07 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28968762

RESUMO

The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC, www.patricbrc.org) is designed to provide researchers with the tools and services that they need to perform genomic and other 'omic' data analyses. In response to mounting concern over antimicrobial resistance (AMR), the PATRIC team has been developing new tools that help researchers understand AMR and its genetic determinants. To support comparative analyses, we have added AMR phenotype data to over 15 000 genomes in the PATRIC database, often assembling genomes from reads in public archives and collecting their associated AMR panel data from the literature to augment the collection. We have also been using this collection of AMR metadata to build machine learning-based classifiers that can predict the AMR phenotypes and the genomic regions associated with resistance for genomes being submitted to the annotation service. Likewise, we have undertaken a large AMR protein annotation effort by manually curating data from the literature and public repositories. This collection of 7370 AMR reference proteins, which contains many protein annotations (functional roles) that are unique to PATRIC and RAST, has been manually curated so that it projects stably across genomes. The collection currently projects to 1 610 744 proteins in the PATRIC database. Finally, the PATRIC Web site has been expanded to enable AMR-based custom page views so that researchers can easily explore AMR data and design experiments based on whole genomes or individual genes.


Assuntos
Biologia Computacional/métodos , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos/genética , Integração de Sistemas , Biologia Computacional/tendências , Bases de Dados Genéticas/estatística & dados numéricos , Genoma Microbiano , Humanos , Internet , Anotação de Sequência Molecular
19.
Methods Mol Biol ; 1704: 79-101, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29277864

RESUMO

In the "big data" era, research biologists are faced with analyzing new types that usually require some level of computational expertise. A number of programs and pipelines exist, but acquiring the expertise to run them, and then understanding the output can be a challenge.The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC, www.patricbrc.org ) has created an end-to-end analysis platform that allows researchers to take their raw reads, assemble a genome, annotate it, and then use a suite of user-friendly tools to compare it to any public data that is available in the repository. With close to 113,000 bacterial and more than 1000 archaeal genomes, PATRIC creates a unique research experience with "virtual integration" of private and public data. PATRIC contains many diverse tools and functionalities to explore both genome-scale and gene expression data, but the main focus of this chapter is on assembly, annotation, and the downstream comparative analysis functionality that is freely available in the resource.


Assuntos
Bactérias/genética , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Genoma Bacteriano , Genômica/métodos , Anotação de Sequência Molecular , Software , Biologia Computacional , Internet , Estatística como Assunto
20.
Nucleic Acids Res ; 45(D1): D535-D542, 2017 01 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27899627

RESUMO

The Pathosystems Resource Integration Center (PATRIC) is the bacterial Bioinformatics Resource Center (https://www.patricbrc.org). Recent changes to PATRIC include a redesign of the web interface and some new services that provide users with a platform that takes them from raw reads to an integrated analysis experience. The redesigned interface allows researchers direct access to tools and data, and the emphasis has changed to user-created genome-groups, with detailed summaries and views of the data that researchers have selected. Perhaps the biggest change has been the enhanced capability for researchers to analyze their private data and compare it to the available public data. Researchers can assemble their raw sequence reads and annotate the contigs using RASTtk. PATRIC also provides services for RNA-Seq, variation, model reconstruction and differential expression analysis, all delivered through an updated private workspace. Private data can be compared by 'virtual integration' to any of PATRIC's public data. The number of genomes available for comparison in PATRIC has expanded to over 80 000, with a special emphasis on genomes with antimicrobial resistance data. PATRIC uses this data to improve both subsystem annotation and k-mer classification, and tags new genomes as having signatures that indicate susceptibility or resistance to specific antibiotics.


Assuntos
Bactérias/genética , Biologia Computacional/métodos , Bases de Dados Genéticas , Genoma Bacteriano , Genômica/métodos , Antibacterianos/farmacologia , Bactérias/efeitos dos fármacos , Bactérias/metabolismo , Proteínas de Bactérias/genética , Proteínas de Bactérias/metabolismo , Farmacorresistência Bacteriana , Anotação de Sequência Molecular , Proteoma , Proteômica/métodos , Software , Navegador
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