Machine learning for prediction of chronic kidney disease progression: Validation of the Klinrisk model in the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trial.

AIM: To validate the Klinrisk machine learning model for prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in patients with type 2 diabetes in the pooled CANVAS/CREDENCE trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We externally validated the Klinrisk model for prediction of CKD progression, defined as 40% or higher decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure. Model performance was assessed for prediction up to 3 years with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier scores and calibration plots of observed and predicted risks. We compared performance of the model with standard of care using eGFR (G1-G4) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (A1-A3) Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) heatmap categories. RESULTS: The Klinrisk model achieved an AUC of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.83) at 1 year, and 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) at 3 years. The Brier scores were 0.020 (0.018-0.022) and 0.056 (0.052-0.059) at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Compared with the KDIGO heatmap, the Klinrisk model had improved performance at every interval (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: The Klinrisk machine learning model, using routinely collected laboratory data, was highly accurate in its prediction of CKD progression in the CANVAS/CREDENCE trials. Integration of the model in electronic medical records or laboratory information systems can facilitate risk-based care.

Effects of Semaglutide on Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease are at high risk for kidney failure, cardiovascular events, and death. Whether treatment with semaglutide would mitigate these risks is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] of 50 to 75 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [with albumin measured in milligrams and creatinine measured in grams] of >300 and <5000 or an eGFR of 25 to <50 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio of >100 and <5000) to receive subcutaneous semaglutide at a dose of 1.0 mg weekly or placebo. The primary outcome was major kidney disease events, a composite of the onset of kidney failure (dialysis, transplantation, or an eGFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), at least a 50% reduction in the eGFR from baseline, or death from kidney-related or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified confirmatory secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS: Among the 3533 participants who underwent randomization (1767 in the semaglutide group and 1766 in the placebo group), median follow-up was 3.4 years, after early trial cessation was recommended at a prespecified interim analysis. The risk of a primary-outcome event was 24% lower in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (331 vs. 410 first events; hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.88; P = 0.0003). Results were similar for a composite of the kidney-specific components of the primary outcome (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.94) and for death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.89). The results for all confirmatory secondary outcomes favored semaglutide: the mean annual eGFR slope was less steep (indicating a slower decrease) by 1.16 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 in the semaglutide group (P<0.001), the risk of major cardiovascular events 18% lower (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.029), and the risk of death from any cause 20% lower (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95, P = 0.01). Serious adverse events were reported in a lower percentage of participants in the semaglutide group than in the placebo group (49.6% vs. 53.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Semaglutide reduced the risk of clinically important kidney outcomes and death from cardiovascular causes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. (Funded by Novo Nordisk; FLOW ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03819153.).

Assessment of Days Alive Out of Hospital as a Possible End Point in Trials of Stroke Prevention for Atrial Fibrillation: A ROCKET AF Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Days alive out of hospital (DAOH) is an objective and patient-centered net benefit end point. There are no assessments of DAOH in clinical trials of interventions for atrial fibrillation (AF), and it is not known whether this end point is of clinical utility in these populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: ROCKET AF (Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared With Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation) was an international double-blind, double-dummy randomized clinical trial that compared rivaroxaban with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation at increased risk for stroke. We assessed DAOH using investigator-reported event data for up to 12 months after randomization in ROCKET AF. We assessed DAOH overall, by treatment group, and by subgroup, including age, sex, and comorbidities, using Poisson regression. The mean±SD number of days dead was 7.3±41.2, days hospitalized was 1.2±7.2, and mean DAOH was 350.7±56.2, with notable left skew. Patients with comorbidities had fewer DAOH overall. There were no differences in DAOH by treatment arm, with mean DAOH of 350.6±56.5 for those randomized to rivaroxaban and 350.7±55.8 for those randomized to warfarin (P=0.86). A sensitivity analysis found no difference in DAOH not disabled with rivaroxaban versus warfarin (DAOH not disabled, 349.2±59.5 days and 349.1 days±59.3 days, respectively, P=0.88). CONCLUSIONS: DAOH did not identify a treatment difference between patients randomized to rivaroxaban versus warfarin. This may be driven in part by the low overall event rates in atrial fibrillation anticoagulation trials, which leads to substantial left skew in measures of DAOH.

IL-6 inhibition with clazakizumab in patients receiving maintenance dialysis: a randomized phase 2b trial.

Inflammation mediated by interleukin-6 (IL-6) is strongly associated with cardiovascular risk. Here we evaluated clazakizumab, a monoclonal antibody targeting the IL-6 ligand, in a phase 2b dose-finding study. Adults with cardiovascular disease and/or diabetes receiving maintenance dialysis with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) ≥ 2 mg l-1 at baseline were randomized to receive clazakizumab (2.5 mg, 5 mg or 10 mg, n = 32 per dose group) or placebo (n = 31) every 4 weeks. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline in hs-CRP to week 12, expressed as the geometric mean ratio. Clazakizumab treatment signficantly reduced serum hs-CRP concentrations at week 12 by 86%, 90% and 92% relative to placebo in patients randomized to 2.5 mg, 5 mg or 10 mg clazakizumab, respectively (all P < 0.0001), meeting the primary outcome. With regard to secondary endpoints, clazakizumab treatment reduced serum fibrinogen, amyloid A, secretory phospholipase A2, and lipoprotein(a) concentrations, as well as increased mean serum albumin concentrations at 12 weeks, relative to placebo. The proportion of patients who achieved hs-CRP < 2.0 mg l-1 was 79%, 82% and 79% in the 2.5 mg, 5 mg and 10 mg clazakizumab groups, respectively, compared with 0% of placebo-treated patients. With regard to safety, no cases of sustained grade 3 or 4 thrombocytopenia or neutropenia were observed. Serious infections were seen with similar frequency in the placebo, clazakizumab 2.5 mg and clazakizumab 5 mg groups, but were numerically more frequent in the clazakizumab 10 mg group. The results of this trial indicate that in patients receiving maintenance dialysis, clazakizumab reduced inflammatory biomarkers associated with cardiovascular events. ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT05485961 .

Real-world walking behaviors are associated with early-stage heart failure: a Project Baseline Health Study.

BACKGROUND: Data collected via wearables may complement in-clinic assessments to monitor subclinical heart failure (HF). OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the association of sensor-based digital walking measures with HF stage and characterize their correlation with in-clinic measures of physical performance, cardiac function and participant reported outcomes (PROs) in individuals with early HF. METHODS: The analyzable cohort included participants from the Project Baseline Health Study (PBHS) with HF stage 0, A, or B, or adaptive remodeling phenotype (without risk factors but with mild echocardiographic change, termed RF-/ECHO+) (based on available first-visit in-clinic test and echocardiogram results) and with sufficient sensor data. We computed daily values per participant for 18 digital walking measures, comparing HF subgroups vs stage 0 using multinomial logistic regression and characterizing associations with in-clinic measures and PROs with Spearman's correlation coefficients, adjusting all analyses for confounders. RESULTS: In the analyzable cohort (N=1265; 50.6% of the PBHS cohort), one standard deviation decreases in 17/18 walking measures were associated with greater likelihood for stage-B HF (multivariable-adjusted odds ratios [ORs] vs stage 0 ranging from 1.18-2.10), or A (ORs vs stage 0, 1.07-1.45), and lower likelihood for RF-/ECHO+ (ORs vs stage 0, 0.80-0.93). Peak 30-minute pace demonstrated the strongest associations with stage B (OR vs stage 0=2.10; 95% CI:1.74-2.53) and A (OR vs stage 0=1.43; 95% CI:1.23-1.66). Decreases in 13/18 measures were associated with greater likelihood for stage-B HF vs stage A. Strength of correlation with physical performance tests, echocardiographic cardiac-remodeling and dysfunction indices and PROs was greatest in stage B, then A, and lowest for 0. CONCLUSIONS: Digital measures of walking captured by wearable sensors could complement clinic-based testing to identify and monitor pre-symptomatic HF.

Effect of Reconstituted Human Apolipoprotein A-I on Recurrent Ischemic Events in Survivors of Acute MI.

BACKGROUND: The AEGIS-II trial hypothesized that CSL112, an intravenous formulation of human apoA-I, would lower the risk of plaque disruption, decreasing the risk of recurrent events such as myocardial infarction (MI) among high-risk patients with MI. OBJECTIVES: This exploratory analysis evaluates the effect of CSL112 therapy on the incidence of cardiovascular (CV) death and recurrent MI. METHODS: The AEGIS-II trial was an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that randomized 18,219 high-risk acute MI patients to 4 weekly infusions of apoA-I (6 g CSL112) or placebo. RESULTS: The incidence of the composite of CV death and type 1 MI was 11% to 16% lower in the CSL112 group over the study period (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.7-1.0; P = 0.056 at day 90; HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.74-0.99; P = 0.048 at day 180; and HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-1.01; P = 0.07 at day 365). Similarly, the incidence of CV death or any MI was numerically lower in CSL112-treated patients throughout the follow-up period (HR: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.80-1.05 at day 90, HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.79-0.996 at day 180, HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.01 at day 365). The effect of CSL112 treatment on MI was predominantly observed for type 1 MI and type 4b (MI due to stent thrombosis). CONCLUSIONS: Although CSL112 did not significantly reduce the occurrence of the primary study endpoints, patients treated with CSL112 infusions had numerically lower rates of CV death and MI, type-1 MI, and stent thrombosis-related MI compared with placebo. These findings could suggest a role of apoA-I in reducing subsequent plaque disruption events via enhanced cholesterol efflux. Further prospective data would be needed to confirm these observations.

Effects of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors on Cause-Specific Cardiovascular Death in Patients with CKD: A Meta-Analysis of CKD Progression Trials.

Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT02065791 (CREDENCE), NCT03036150 (DAPA-CKD), NCT03594110 (EMPA-KIDNEY).

Natriuretic Peptides and Prognosis in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and High Risk for Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of individuals with and without an established heart failure (HF) diagnosis and similarly elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels is not well-known. METHODS AND RESULTS: CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) trial participants were stratified according to baseline NT-proBNP quartiles and history of HF at baseline. Adjusted event rates per 1000 patient-years of follow-up for hospitalizations for HF, cardiovascular mortality, and kidney events were assessed, and hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox proportional hazard models. Of the 3507 participants with available NT-proBNP concentrations, 471 (13.4%) had history of HF. The incidence rate per 1000 patient-years for hospitalizations for HF increased across the NT-proBNP quartiles in patients with (0, 2.8, 13.4, and 40.1; P < .001) and without (1.8, 3.1, 6.0, and 19.1; P < .001) HF, with a significantly higher risk in patients with HF compared with those without (with HF, quartile 3 HR 9.28 [interquartile range (IQR) 1.15-75.05]; P = .04; without HF, quartile 4 HR 4.86 [95% CI, 2.08-11.35]; P < .001). A similar higher risk for kidney events was seen in HF patients (with HF, quartile 4 HR 6.94 [95% CI, 2.66-18.08]; P = .001; without HF, quartile 4 HR 4.85 [95% CI, 3.02-7.80]; P = .001). Similar trends were seen for cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk, an elevated NT-proBNP level was associated with worse HF and kidney outcomes in general, regardless of history of HF; however, the presence of a clinical diagnosis of HF at baseline was associated with an incrementally higher risk, particularly in higher NT-proBNP quartiles.

Accuracy of Event Rate and Effect Size Estimation in Major Cardiovascular Trials: A Systematic Review.

Importance: For the design of a randomized clinical trial (RCT), estimation of the expected event rate and effect size of an intervention is needed to calculate the sample size. Overestimation may lead to an underpowered trial. Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of published estimates of event rate and effect size in contemporary cardiovascular RCTs. Evidence Review: A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE for multicenter cardiovascular RCTs associated with MeSH (Medical Subject Headings) terms for cardiovascular diseases published in the New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, or the Lancet between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2019. Identified trials underwent abstract review; eligible trials then underwent full review, and those with insufficiently reported data were excluded. Data were extracted from the original publication or the study protocol, and a random-effects model was used for data pooling. This review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses reporting guideline. The primary outcome was the accuracy of event rate and effect size estimation. Accuracy was determined by comparing the observed event rate in the control group and the effect size with their hypothesized values. Linear regression was used to determine the association between estimation accuracy and trial characteristics. Findings: Of the 873 RCTs identified, 374 underwent full review and 30 were subsequently excluded, resulting in 344 trials for analysis. The median observed event rate was 9.0% (IQR, 4.3% to 21.4%), which was significantly lower than the estimated event rate of 11.0% (IQR, 6.0% to 25.0%) with a median deviation of -12.3% (95% CI, -16.4% to -5.6%; P < .001). More than half of the trials (196 [61.1%]) overestimated the expected event rate. Accuracy of event rate estimation was associated with a higher likelihood of refuting the null hypothesis (0.13 [95% CI, 0.01 to 0.25]; P = .03). The median observed effect size in superiority trials was 0.91 (IQR, 0.74 to 0.99), which was significantly lower than the estimated effect size of 0.72 (IQR, 0.60 to 0.80), indicating a median overestimation of 23.1% (95% CI, 17.9% to 28.3%). A total of 216 trials (82.1%) overestimated the effect size. Conclusions and Relevance: In this systematic review of contemporary cardiovascular RCTs, event rates of the primary end point and effect sizes of an intervention were frequently overestimated. This overestimation may have contributed to the inability to adequately test the trial hypothesis.

Apolipoprotein A1 Infusions and Cardiovascular Outcomes after Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular events frequently recur after acute myocardial infarction, and low cholesterol efflux - a process mediated by apolipoprotein A1, which is the main protein in high-density lipoprotein - has been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. CSL112 is human apolipoprotein A1 derived from plasma that increases cholesterol efflux capacity. Whether infusions of CSL112 can reduce the risk of recurrent cardiovascular events after acute myocardial infarction is unclear. METHODS: We conducted an international, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving patients with acute myocardial infarction, multivessel coronary artery disease, and additional cardiovascular risk factors. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either four weekly infusions of 6 g of CSL112 or matching placebo, with the first infusion administered within 5 days after the first medical contact for the acute myocardial infarction. The primary end point was a composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes from randomization through 90 days of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 18,219 patients were included in the trial (9112 in the CSL112 group and 9107 in the placebo group). There was no significant difference between the groups in the risk of a primary end-point event at 90 days of follow-up (439 patients [4.8%] in the CSL112 group vs. 472 patients [5.2%] in the placebo group; hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.05; P = 0.24), at 180 days of follow-up (622 patients [6.9%] vs. 683 patients [7.6%]; hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.01), or at 365 days of follow-up (885 patients [9.8%] vs. 944 patients [10.5%]; hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.02). The percentage of patients with adverse events was similar in the two groups; a higher number of hypersensitivity events was reported in the CSL112 group. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with acute myocardial infarction, multivessel coronary artery disease, and additional cardiovascular risk factors, four weekly infusions of CSL112 did not result in a lower risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes than placebo through 90 days. (Funded by CSL Behring; AEGIS-II ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03473223.).

Smartphone-Based Recognition of Heart Failure by Means of Microelectromechanical Sensors.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of hospitalization in individuals over 65 years of age. Identifying noninvasive methods to detect HF may address the epidemic of HF. Seismocardiography which measures cardiac vibrations transmitted to the chest wall has recently emerged as a promising technology to detect HF. OBJECTIVES: In this multicenter study, the authors examined whether seismocardiography using commercially available smartphones can differentiate control subjects from patients with stage C HF. METHODS: Both inpatients and outpatients with HF were enrolled from Finland and the United States. Inpatients with HF were assessed within 2 days of admission, and outpatients were assessed in the ambulatory setting. In a prespecified pooled data analysis, algorithms were derived using logistic regression and then validated using a bootstrap aggregation method. RESULTS: A total of 217 participants with HF (174 inpatients and 172 outpatients) and 786 control subjects from cardiovascular clinics were enrolled. The mean age of participants with acute HF was 64 ± 13 years, 64.9% were male, left ventricular ejection fraction was 39% ± 15%, and median N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide was 5,778 ng/L (Q1-Q3: 1,933-6,703). The majority (74%) of participants with HF had reduced EF, and 38% had atrial fibrillation. Across both HF cohorts, the algorithms had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.95 with a sensitivity of 85%, specificity of 90%, and accuracy of 89% for the detection of HF, with a decision threshold of 0.5. The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 8.50 and 0.17, respectively. The accuracy of the algorithms was not significantly different in subgroups based on age, sex, body mass index, and atrial fibrillation. CONCLUSIONS: Smartphone-based assessment of cardiac function using seismocardiography is feasible and differentiates patients with HF from control subjects with high diagnostic accuracy. (Recognition of Heart Failure With Micro Electro-mechanical Sensors FI; NCT04444583; Recognition of Heart Failure With Micro Electro-mechanical Sensors [NCT04378179]; Detection of Coronary Artery Disease With Micro Electro-mechanical Sensors; NCT04290091).

Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and Major Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes: A SMART-C Collaborative Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) consistently improve heart failure and kidney-related outcomes; however, effects on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) across different patient populations are less clear. METHODS: This was a collaborative trial-level meta-analysis from the SGLT2i Meta-analysis Cardio-Renal Trialists Consortium, which includes all phase 3, placebo-controlled, outcomes trials of SGLT2i across 3 patient populations (patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure [HF], or chronic kidney disease). The outcomes of interest were MACE (composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction , or stroke), individual components of MACE (inclusive of fatal and nonfatal events), all-cause mortality, and death subtypes. Effect estimates for SGLT2i versus placebo were meta-analyzed across trials and examined across key subgroups (established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, previous HF, albuminuria, chronic kidney disease stages, and risk groups). RESULTS: A total of 78 607 patients across 11 trials were included: 42 568 (54.2%), 20 725 (26.4%), and 15 314 (19.5%) were included from trials of patients with diabetes at high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, HF, or chronic kidney disease, respectively. SGLT2i reduced the rate of MACE by 9% (hazard ration [HR], 0.91 [95% CI, 0.87-0.96], P<0.0001) with a consistent effect across all 3 patient populations (I2=0%) and across all key subgroups. This effect was primarily driven by a reduction in cardiovascular death (HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.81-0.92], P<0.0001), with no significant effect for myocardial infarction in the overall population (HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.87-1.04], P=0.29), and no effect on stroke (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.91-1.07], P=0.77). The benefit for cardiovascular death was driven primarily by reductions in HF death and sudden cardiac death (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.46-1.02] and HR, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.78-0.95], respectively) and was generally consistent across subgroups, with the possible exception of being more apparent in those with albuminuria (Pinteraction=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: SGLT2i reduce the risk of MACE across a broad range of patients irrespective of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney function, or other major clinical characteristics at baseline. This effect is driven primarily by a reduction of cardiovascular death, particularly HF death and sudden cardiac death, without a significant effect on myocardial infarction in the overall population, and no effect on stroke. These data may help inform selection for SGLT2i therapies across the spectrum of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic disease.

Relationship between body mass index and cardiometabolic health in a multi-ethnic population: A project baseline health study.

Objective: Obesity is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular disease. Understanding the associations between comprehensive health parameters and body mass index (BMI) may lead to targeted prevention efforts. Methods: Project Baseline Health Study (PBHS) participants were divided into six BMI categories: underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2), class I obesity (30-34.9 kg/m2), class II obesity (35-39.9 kg/m2), and class III obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m2). Demographic, cardiometabolic, mental health, and physical health parameters were compared across BMI categories, and multivariable logistic regression models were fit to evaluate associations. Results: A total of 2,493 PBHS participants were evaluated. The mean age was 50±17.2 years; 55 % were female, 12 % Hispanic, 16 % Black, and 10 % Asian. The average BMI was 28.4 kg/m2±6.9. The distribution of BMI by age group was comparable to the 2017-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) dataset. The obesity categories had higher proportions of participants with CAC scores >0, hypertension, diabetes, lower HDL-C, lower vitamin D, higher triglycerides, higher hsCRP, lower mean step counts, higher mean PHQ-9 scores, and higher mean GAD-7 scores. Conclusion: We identified associations of cardiometabolic and mental health characteristics with BMI, thereby providing a deeper understanding of cardiovascular health across BMI.

A Phase II randomized controlled trial evaluated antithrombotic treatment with fesomersen in patients with kidney failure on hemodialysis.

Patients with kidney failure on hemodialysis (KF-HD) are at high risk for both atherothrombotic events and bleeding. This Phase IIb study evaluated the dose-response of fesomersen, an inhibitor of hepatic Factor XI expression, versus placebo, for bleeding and atherothrombosis in patients with KF-HD. Patients were randomized to receive fesomersen 40, 80, or 120 mg once-monthly, or matching placebo, for up to 12 months. The primary safety endpoint was a composite of major bleeding and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (MB/CRNMB). Exploratory endpoints included post-dialysis arterio-venous (AV)-access bleeding, major atherothrombotic events (composite of fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, acute limb ischemia/major amputation, systemic embolism, symptomatic venous thromboembolism), AV-access thrombosis, and clotting of the hemodialysis circuit. Of 308 participants randomized, 307 received study treatment and were analyzed. Fesomersen led to a dose-dependent and sustained reduction of steady-state median FXI levels by 53.6% (40 mg group), 71.3% (80 mg group), 86.0% (120 mg group), versus 1.9% in the placebo group. MB/CRNMB events occurred in 6.5% (40 mg group), 5.1% (80 mg group), 3.9% (120 mg group), and in 4.0% of those receiving placebo (pooled fesomersen versus placebo P = 0.78). Major atherothrombotic events occurred in 1 patient (1.3%) in each treatment arm. MB/CRNMB bleeding and post-dialysis AV-access bleeding were not related to predicted FXI levels. Lower predicted FXI levels were associated with reductions in hemodialysis circuit clotting (P = 0.002) and AV-access thrombosis (P = 0.014). In patients with KF-HD, fesomersen produced a dose-dependent reduction in FXI levels associated with similar rates of major bleeding compared with placebo. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT04534114.

Autoantibodies to Erythropoietin Receptor and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and CKD: A Post Hoc Analysis of CREDENCE Trial.

Introduction: Autoantibodies to erythropoietin receptor (anti-EPOR antibodies) have been identified in patients with various kidney diseases. However, data in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. We assessed the prevalence of anti-EPOR antibodies and their association with clinical outcomes in this population. Methods: The CREDENCE randomized patients with T2D and CKD to canagliflozin or placebo. Serum anti-EPOR antibodies, the exposure of interest, were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The primary outcome was doubling of serum creatinine, end-stage kidney disease, or death from kidney or cardiovascular (CV) causes. Secondary outcomes included CV and all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox-regression models estimated associations between anti-EPOR antibodies and outcomes. The effects of canagliflozin on hemoglobin and hematocrit, stratified by the presence of anti-EPOR antibodies were assessed with a repeated measures mixed effects model. Results: Of 2600 participants with available biosamples, 191 (7.3%) were positive for anti-EPOR antibodies. Higher baseline anti-EPOR antibodies were associated with increased risk of primary outcome (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD increase = 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01-1.24, P = 0.04), with CV death (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.08-1.48, P < 0.01) and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.11-1.43, P < 0.01). During follow-up, canagliflozin, compared to placebo, increased hemoglobin and hematocrit by 7.0 g/l (95% CI = 6.2-7.9) and 2.4% (2.2-2.7), respectively. These effects were consistent across patients with and without anti-EPOR antibodies (P-interaction = 0.24 and 0.36, respectively). Conclusion: In patients with T2D and CKD, anti-EPOR antibodies were associated with the composite kidney and CV outcome, as well as CV and all-cause mortality. Canagliflozin increased hemoglobin and hematocrit regardless of anti-EPOR antibodies.

Impact of Canagliflozin on Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes by Type 2 Diabetes Duration: A Pooled Analysis of the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE Trials.

OBJECTIVE: The study was undertaken because it was unknown whether the duration of type 2 diabetes modifies the effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor canagliflozin on cardiovascular (CV) and kidney outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This post hoc analysis of the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program (N = 10,142) and Evaluation of the Effects of Canagliflozin on Renal and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Participants With Diabetic Nephropathy (CREDENCE) trial (N = 4,401) evaluated hazard ratios and 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards for the effects of canagliflozin on CV and kidney outcomes, including progression and regression of albuminuria over 5-year intervals of disease duration. RESULTS: Canagliflozin had ranges of benefit across intervals of diabetes duration, with no heterogeneity for major adverse CV events, CV death or heart failure hospitalization, and kidney failure requiring therapy or doubling serum creatinine. Furthermore, canagliflozin reduced albuminuria progression and increased albuminuria regression with no interaction across all diabetes duration subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that earlier treatment with canagliflozin confers consistent cardiorenal benefits to individuals with type 2 diabetes.

Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular and Kidney Prevention With Canagliflozin: Insights From the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE Trial.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluated the effects of canagliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease (secondary and primary prevention). METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a pooled participant-level analysis of the CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) Program and CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) trial. The CANVAS Program included participants with type 2 diabetes at elevated cardiovascular risk, whereas the CREDENCE trial included participants with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease. Hazard ratios (HRs) with interaction terms were obtained from Cox regression models to estimate relative risk reduction with canagliflozin versus placebo across the primary and secondary prevention groups. We analyzed 5616 (38.9%) and 8804 (61.1%) individuals in the primary and secondary prevention subgroups, respectively. Primary versus secondary prevention participants were on average younger (62.2 versus 63.8 years of age) and more often women (42% versus 31%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.76-0.94]) consistently across primary and secondary prevention subgroups (Pinteraction=0.86). Similarly, no treatment effect heterogeneity was observed with canagliflozin for hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, end-stage kidney disease, or all-cause mortality (all Pinteraction>0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Canagliflozin reduced cardiovascular and kidney outcomes with no statistical evidence of heterogeneity for the treatment effect across the primary and secondary prevention subgroups in the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trial. Although studies on the optimal implementation of canagliflozin within these populations are warranted, these results reinforce canagliflozin's role in cardiorenal prevention and treatment in individuals with type 2 diabetes. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT01032629, NCT01989754, NCT02065791.

Estimated Lifetime Cardiovascular, Kidney, and Mortality Benefits of Combination Treatment With SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Nonsteroidal MRA Compared With Conventional Care in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Albuminuria.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA), and the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (ns-MRA) finerenone all individually reduce cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuria. However, the lifetime benefits of combination therapy with these medicines are not known. METHODS: We used data from 2 SGLT2i trials (CANVAS [Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment] and CREDENCE [Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes with Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation]), 2 ns-MRA trials (FIDELIO-DKD [Finerenone in Reducing Kidney Failure and Disease Progression in Diabetic Kidney Disease] and FIGARO-DKD [Efficacy and Safety of Finerenone in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and the Clinical Diagnosis of Diabetic Kidney Disease]), and 8 GLP-1 RA trials to estimate the relative effects of combination therapy versus conventional care (renin-angiotensin system blockade and traditional risk factor control) on cardiovascular, kidney, and mortality outcomes. Using actuarial methods, we then estimated absolute risk reductions with combination SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA in patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria (urinary albumin:creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) by applying estimated combination treatment effects to participants receiving conventional care in CANVAS and CREDENCE. RESULTS: Compared with conventional care, the combination of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.55-0.76) for major adverse cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). The corresponding estimated absolute risk reduction over 3 years was 4.4% (95% CI, 3.0-5.7), with a number needed to treat of 23 (95% CI, 18-33). For a 50-year-old patient commencing combination therapy, estimated major adverse cardiovascular event-free survival was 21.1 years compared with 17.9 years for conventional care (3.2 years gained [95% CI, 2.1-4.3]). There were also projected gains in survival free from hospitalized heart failure (3.2 years [95% CI, 2.4-4.0]), chronic kidney disease progression (5.5 years [95% CI, 4.0-6.7]), cardiovascular death (2.2 years [95% CI, 1.2-3.0]), and all-cause death (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.4-3.4]). Attenuated but clinically relevant gains in event-free survival were observed in analyses assuming 50% additive effects of combination therapy, including for major adverse cardiovascular events (2.4 years [95% CI, 1.1-3.5]), chronic kidney disease progression (4.5 years [95% CI, 2.8-5.9]), and all-cause death (1.8 years [95% CI, 0.7-2.8]). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and at least moderately increased albuminuria, combination treatment of SGLT2i, GLP-1 RA, and ns-MRA has the potential to afford relevant gains in cardiovascular and kidney event-free and overall survival.