Cross-sectional study evaluating the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on Long COVID outcomes in UK hospital survivors.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 studies report on hospital admission outcomes across SARS-CoV-2 waves of infection but knowledge of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the development of Long COVID in hospital survivors is limited. We sought to investigate Long COVID outcomes, aiming to compare outcomes in adult hospitalised survivors with known variants of concern during our first and second UK COVID-19 waves, prior to widespread vaccination. DESIGN: Prospective observational cross-sectional study. SETTING: Secondary care tertiary hospital in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: This study investigated Long COVID in 673 adults with laboratory-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection or clinically suspected COVID-19, 6 weeks after hospital discharge. We compared adults with wave 1 (wildtype variant, admitted from February to April 2020) and wave 2 patients (confirmed Alpha variant on viral sequencing (B.1.1.7), admitted from December 2020 to February 2021). OUTCOME MEASURES: Associations of Long COVID presence (one or more of 14 symptoms) and total number of Long COVID symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 variant were analysed using multiple logistic and Poisson regression, respectively. RESULTS: 322/400 (wave 1) and 248/273 (wave 2) patients completed follow-up. Predictors of increased total number of Long COVID symptoms included: pre-existing lung disease (adjusted count ratio (aCR)=1.26, 95% CI 1.07, 1.48) and more COVID-19 admission symptoms (aCR=1.07, 95% CI 1.02, 1.12). Weaker associations included increased length of inpatient stay (aCR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00, 1.03) and later review after discharge (aCR=1.00, 95% CI 1.00, 1.01). SARS-CoV-2 variant was not associated with Long COVID presence (OR=0.99, 95% CI 0.24, 4.20) or total number of symptoms (aCR=1.09, 95% CI 0.82, 1.44). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with chronic lung disease or greater COVID-19 admission symptoms have higher Long COVID risk. SARS-CoV-2 variant was not predictive of Long COVID though in wave 2 we identified fewer admission symptoms, improved clinical trajectory and outcomes. Addressing modifiable factors such as length of stay and timepoint of clinical review following discharge may enable clinicians to move from Long COVID risk stratification towards improving its outcome.

Low Risk of Failing Direct-Acting Antivirals in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Hepatitis C Virus From Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeastern Asia: A European Cross-Sectional Study.

Background: Several studies have reported suboptimal efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes endemic to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southeastern Asia (SEA). The extent of this issue in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV from SSA or SEA residing in Europe is unknown. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from several prospective European cohorts of people living with HIV. We included individuals with HIV/HCV who originated from SSA or SEA, were treated with interferon-free DAAs, and had an available HCV RNA result ≥12 weeks after the end of treatment. The primary outcome was sustained virological response at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Results: Of the 3293 individuals with HIV/HCV treated with DAA and with available SVR12 data, 142 were from SSA (n = 64) and SEA (n = 78). SVR12 was achieved by 60 (94% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 86%-98%]) individuals from SSA and 76 (97% [95% CI, 92%-99%]) from SEA. The genotypes of the 6 individuals failing DAA treatment were 2, 3a, 3h, 4a, 4c, and 6j. For 2 of the 4 unsuccessfully treated individuals with available sequence data at treatment failure, NS5A resistance-associated substitutions were present (30R/93S in an individual with genotype 4c and 31M in an individual with genotype 6j). Conclusions: SVR12 rates were high in individuals with HIV/HCV residing in Europe and originating from regions where intrinsically NS5A-resistant HCV strains are endemic. HCV elimination for this population in Europe is unlikely to be hampered by suboptimal DAA efficacy.

Effectiveness of rapid SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing in supporting infection control for hospital-onset COVID-19 infection: Multicentre, prospective study.

Background: Viral sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been used for outbreak investigation, but there is limited evidence supporting routine use for infection prevention and control (IPC) within hospital settings. Methods: We conducted a prospective non-randomised trial of sequencing at 14 acute UK hospital trusts. Sites each had a 4-week baseline data collection period, followed by intervention periods comprising 8 weeks of 'rapid' (<48 hr) and 4 weeks of 'longer-turnaround' (5-10 days) sequencing using a sequence reporting tool (SRT). Data were collected on all hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs; detected ≥48 hr from admission). The impact of the sequencing intervention on IPC knowledge and actions, and on the incidence of probable/definite hospital-acquired infections (HAIs), was evaluated. Results: A total of 2170 HOCI cases were recorded from October 2020 to April 2021, corresponding to a period of extreme strain on the health service, with sequence reports returned for 650/1320 (49.2%) during intervention phases. We did not detect a statistically significant change in weekly incidence of HAIs in longer-turnaround (incidence rate ratio 1.60, 95% CI 0.85-3.01; p=0.14) or rapid (0.85, 0.48-1.50; p=0.54) intervention phases compared to baseline phase. However, IPC practice was changed in 7.8 and 7.4% of all HOCI cases in rapid and longer-turnaround phases, respectively, and 17.2 and 11.6% of cases where the report was returned. In a 'per-protocol' sensitivity analysis, there was an impact on IPC actions in 20.7% of HOCI cases when the SRT report was returned within 5 days. Capacity to respond effectively to insights from sequencing was breached in most sites by the volume of cases and limited resources. Conclusions: While we did not demonstrate a direct impact of sequencing on the incidence of nosocomial transmission, our results suggest that sequencing can inform IPC response to HOCIs, particularly when returned within 5 days. Funding: COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) (grant code: MC_PC_19027), and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. Clinical trial number: NCT04405934.

Comparative assessment of viral dynamic models for SARS-CoV-2 for pharmacodynamic assessment in early treatment trials.

Pharmacometric analyses of time series viral load data may detect drug effects with greater power than approaches using single time points. Because SARS-CoV-2 viral load rapidly rises and then falls, viral dynamic models have been used. We compared different modelling approaches when analysing Phase II-type viral dynamic data. Using two SARS-CoV-2 datasets of viral load starting within 7 days of symptoms, we fitted the slope-intercept exponential decay (SI), reduced target cell limited (rTCL), target cell limited (TCL) and TCL with eclipse phase (TCLE) models using nlmixr. Model performance was assessed via Bayesian information criterion (BIC), visual predictive checks (VPCs), goodness-of-fit plots, and parameter precision. The most complex (TCLE) model had the highest BIC for both datasets. The estimated viral decline rate was similar for all models except the TCL model for dataset A with a higher rate (median [range] day-1 : dataset A; 0.63 [0.56-1.84]; dataset B: 0.81 [0.74-0.85]). Our findings suggest simple models should be considered during pharmacodynamic model development.

Diagnostic accuracy of Abbott Architect Assay as a screening tool for human T-cell leukaemia virus type-1 and type-2 infection in a London teaching hospital with a large solid organ transplant centre.

AIM: In the United Kingdom, organ donors/recipients are screened for evidence of human T-cell leukaemia virus type-1 and type-2 (HTLV-1/2) infections. Since the United Kingdom is a low prevalence country for HTLV infections, a screening assay with high sensitivity and specificity is required. Samples with repeat reactivity on antibody testing are sent to a reference lab for confirmatory serological and molecular testing. In the case of donor screen, this leads to delays in the release of organs and can result in wastage. We aim to assess whether a signal/cut-off (S/CO) ratio higher than the manufacturer's recommendation of 1.0 in the Abbott Architect antibody assay is a reliable measure of HTLV-1/2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a 5 year retrospective analysis of 7245 patients from which 11 766 samples were tested on the Abbott Architect rHTLV I/II assay. Reactive samples (S/CO >1) were referred for confirmatory serological and molecular detection (Western Blot and proviral DNA) at UK Health Security Agency, (formerly PHE, Colindale), the national reference laboratory. Electronic, protected laboratory and hospital patient databases were employed to collate data. RESULTS: A total of 45 patients had initially reactive samples. 42.2% (n = 19/45) had an S/CO ratio > 20, with HTLV infection confirmed in n = 18/19 and indeterminate confirmatory results in n = 1/19. No samples with an S/CO ratio <4 (48.9%, n = 22/45) or 4-20 (8.9%, n = 4/45) had positive confirmatory results on subsequent confirmatory testing. CONCLUSION: Samples with an S/CO >20 likely represent a true HTLV-1/2 infection. Reactive samples with an S/CO <4 were unlikely to confirm for HTLV infections. Interpretation of these ratios can assist clinicians in the assessment of low reactive samples and reiterates the need for faster access to confirmatory testing.

Post-Vaccination Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Case-Control Study and Genomic Analysis of 119 Breakthrough Infections in Partially Vaccinated Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Post-vaccination infections challenge the control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: We matched 119 cases of post-vaccination severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection with BNT162b2 mRNA or ChAdOx1 nCOV-19 to 476 unvaccinated patients with COVID-19 (September 2020-March 2021) according to age and sex. Differences in 60-day all-cause mortality, hospital admission, and hospital length of stay were evaluated. Phylogenetic, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), and minority variant allele (MVA) full-genome sequencing analysis was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 116 of 119 cases developed COVID-19 post-first vaccination dose (median, 14 days). Thirteen of 119 (10.9%) cases and 158 of 476 (33.2%) controls died (P < .001), corresponding to the 4.5 number needed to treat (NNT). Multivariably, vaccination was associated with a 69.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 45.8 to 82.6) relative risk (RR) reduction in mortality. Similar results were seen in subgroup analysis for patients with infection onset ≥14 days after first vaccination and across vaccine subgroups. Hospital admissions (odds ratio, 0.80; 95% CI: .51 to 1.28) and length of stay (-1.89 days; 95% CI: -4.57 to 0.78) were lower for cases, while cycle threshold values were higher (30.8 vs 28.8, P = .053). B.1.1.7 was the predominant lineage in cases (100 of 108, 92.6%) and controls (341 of 446, 76.5%). Genomic analysis identified 1 post-vaccination case that harbored the E484K vaccine-escape mutation (B.1.525 lineage). CONCLUSIONS: Previous vaccination reduces mortality when B.1.1.7 is the predominant lineage. No significant lineage-specific genomic changes during phylogenetic, SNP, and MVA analysis were detected.

The Alpha variant was not associated with excess nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection in a multi-centre UK hospital study.

OBJECTIVES: Recently emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have been associated with an increased rate of transmission within the community. We sought to determine whether this also resulted in increased transmission within hospitals. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and epidemiological data of patients with community and healthcare associated SARS-CoV-2 infections, sampled from 16th November 2020 to 10th January 2021, from nine hospitals participating in the COG-UK HOCI study. Outbreaks were identified using ward information, lineage and pairwise genetic differences between viral sequences. RESULTS: Mixed effects logistic regression analysis of 4184 sequences showed healthcare-acquired infections were no more likely to be identified as the Alpha variant than community acquired infections. Nosocomial outbreaks were investigated based on overlapping ward stay and SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence similarity. There was no significant difference in the number of patients involved in outbreaks caused by the Alpha variant compared to outbreaks caused by other lineages. CONCLUSIONS: We find no evidence to support it causing more nosocomial transmission than previous lineages. This suggests that the stringent infection prevention measures already in place in UK hospitals contained the spread of the Alpha variant as effectively as other less transmissible lineages, providing reassurance of their efficacy against emerging variants of concern.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 is associated with greater disease severity among hospitalised women but not men: multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 has been associated with an increased rate of transmission and disease severity among subjects testing positive in the community. Its impact on hospitalised patients is less well documented. METHODS: We collected viral sequences and clinical data of patients admitted with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital-onset COVID-19 infections (HOCIs), sampled 16 November 2020 to 10 January 2021, from eight hospitals participating in the COG-UK-HOCI study. Associations between the variant and the outcomes of all-cause mortality and intensive therapy unit (ITU) admission were evaluated using mixed effects Cox models adjusted by age, sex, comorbidities, care home residence, pregnancy and ethnicity. FINDINGS: Sequences were obtained from 2341 inpatients (HOCI cases=786) and analysis of clinical outcomes was carried out in 2147 inpatients with all data available. The HR for mortality of B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages was 1.01 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.28, p=0.94) and for ITU admission was 1.01 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.37, p=0.96). Analysis of sex-specific effects of B.1.1.7 identified increased risk of mortality (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.78, p=0.096) and ITU admission (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.90, p=0.011) in females infected with the variant but not males (mortality HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.10, p=0.177; ITU HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.04, p=0.086). INTERPRETATION: In common with smaller studies of patients hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2, we did not find an overall increase in mortality or ITU admission associated with B.1.1.7 compared with other lineages. However, women with B.1.1.7 may be at an increased risk of admission to intensive care and at modestly increased risk of mortality.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 N-Antibody Response in Healthcare Workers, London, UK.

Prospective serosurveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in 1,069 healthcare workers in London, UK, demonstrated that nucleocapsid antibody titers were stable and sustained for <12 weeks in 312 seropositive participants. This finding was consistent across demographic and clinical variables and contrasts with reports of short-term antibody waning.

Validation of a commercially available indirect assay for SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies using a pseudotyped virus assay.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether a commercially available CE-IVD, ELISA-based surrogate neutralisation assay (cPass, Genscript) provides a genuine measure of SARS-CoV-2 neutralisation by human sera, and further to establish whether measuring responses against the RBD of S was a diagnostically useful proxy for responses against the whole S protein. METHODS: Serum samples from 30 patients were assayed for anti-NP responses, for 'neutralisation' by the surrogate neutralisation assay and for neutralisation by SARS-CoV-2 S pseudotyped virus assays utilising two target cell lines. Correlation between assays was measured using linear regression. RESULTS: The responses observed within the surrogate neutralisation assay demonstrated an extremely strong, highly significant positive correlation with those observed in both pseudotyped virus assays. CONCLUSIONS: The tested ELISA-based surrogate assay provides an immunologically useful measure of functional immune responses in a much quicker and highly automatable fashion. It also reinforces that detection of anti-RBD neutralising antibodies alone is a powerful measure of the capacity to neutralise viral infection.

Exclusion of bacterial co-infection in COVID-19 using baseline inflammatory markers and their response to antibiotics.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is infrequently complicated by bacterial co-infection, but antibiotic prescriptions are common. We used community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) as a benchmark to define the processes that occur in bacterial pulmonary infections, testing the hypothesis that baseline inflammatory markers and their response to antibiotic therapy could distinguish bacterial co-infection from COVID-19. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of CAP (lobar consolidation on chest radiograph) and COVID-19 (PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2) patients admitted to Royal Free Hospital (RFH) and Barnet Hospital (BH), serving as independent discovery and validation cohorts. All CAP and >90% COVID-19 patients received antibiotics on hospital admission. RESULTS: We identified 106 CAP and 619 COVID-19 patients at RFH. Compared with COVID-19, CAP was characterized by elevated baseline white cell count (WCC) [median 12.48 (IQR 8.2-15.3) versus 6.78 (IQR 5.2-9.5) ×106 cells/mL, P < 0.0001], C-reactive protein (CRP) [median 133.5 (IQR 65-221) versus 86.0 (IQR 42-160) mg/L, P < 0.0001], and greater reduction in CRP 48-72 h into admission [median ΔCRP -33 (IQR -112 to +3.5) versus +14 (IQR -15.5 to +70.5) mg/L, P < 0.0001]. These observations were recapitulated in the independent validation cohort at BH (169 CAP and 181 COVID-19 patients). A multivariate logistic regression model incorporating WCC and ΔCRP discriminated CAP from COVID-19 with AUC 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.94). Baseline WCC >8.2 × 106 cells/mL or falling CRP identified 94% of CAP cases, and excluded bacterial co-infection in 46% of COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSIONS: We propose that in COVID-19, absence of both elevated baseline WCC and antibiotic-related decrease in CRP can exclude bacterial co-infection and facilitate antibiotic stewardship efforts.

Assessment of the Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis HScore in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

The clinical manifestation of moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has parallels to secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) both clinically and based on molecular inflammatory response. We found no evidence to support the utility of risk-stratifying COVID-19 patients using risk scoring methodology designed for HLH.

Decline in Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Incidence in Men Who Have Sex With Men Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Progress to HCV Microelimination in the United Kingdom?

BACKGROUND: Modeling of the London hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM) and are living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) suggested that early access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment may reduce incidence. With high rates of linkage to care, microelimination of HCV within MSM living with HIV may be realistic ahead of 2030 World Health Organization targets. We examined trends in HCV incidence in the pre- and post-DAA eras for MSM living with HIV in London and Brighton, United Kingdom. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at 5 HIV clinics in London and Brighton between 2013 and 2018. Each site reported all acute HCV episodes during the study period. Treatment timing data were collected. Incidence rates and reinfection proportion were calculated. RESULTS: A total of.378 acute HCV infections were identified, comprising 292 first infections and 86 reinfections. Incidence rates of acute HCV in MSM living with HIV peaked at 14.57/1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; 95% confidence interval [CI], 10.95-18.20) in 2015. Rates fell to 4.63/1000 PYFU (95% CI, 2.60 to 6.67) by 2018. Time from diagnosis to starting treatment declined from 29.8 (2013) to 3.7 months (2018). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a 78% reduction in the incidence of first HCV episode and a 68% reduction in overall HCV incidence since the epidemic peak in 2015, which coincides with wider access to DAAs in England. Further interventions to reduce transmission, including earlier access to treatment and for reinfection, are likely needed for microelimination to be achieved in this population.

The effect of HIV status on the frequency and severity of acute respiratory illness.

INTRODUCTION: Antiretroviral therapy has improved the health of people living with HIV (PLW-HIV), though less is known about how this impacts on acute respiratory illness. These illnesses are a common cause of ill health in the general population and any increase in their frequency or severity in PLW-HIV might have significant implications for health-related quality of life and the development of chronic respiratory disease. METHODS: In a prospective observational cohort study following PLW-HIV and HIV negative participants for 12 months with weekly documentation of any acute respiratory illness, we compared the frequency, severity and healthcare use associated with acute respiratory illnesses to determine whether PLW-HIV continue to have a greater frequency or severity of such illnesses despite antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS: We followed-up 136 HIV positive and 73 HIV negative participants for 12 months with weekly documentation of any new respiratory symptoms. We found that HIV status did not affect the frequency of acute respiratory illness: unadjusted incidence rates per person year of follow-up were 2.08 illnesses (95% CI 1.81-2.38) and 2.30 illnesses (1.94-2.70) in HIV positive and negative participants respectively, IRR 0.87 (0.70-1.07) p = 0.18. However, when acute respiratory illnesses occurred, PLW-HIV reported more severe symptoms (relative fold-change in symptom score 1.61 (1.28-2.02), p <0.001) and were more likely to seek healthcare advice (42% vs 18% of illnesses, odds ratio 3.32 (1.48-7.39), p = 0.003). After adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics, PLW-HIV still had higher symptom scores when unwell. CONCLUSIONS: HIV suppression with antiretroviral therapy reduces the frequency of acute respiratory illness to background levels, however when these occur, they are associated with more severe self-reported symptoms and greater healthcare utilisation. Exploration of the reasons for this greater severity of acute respiratory illness may allow targeted interventions to improve the health of people living with HIV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN38386321).

Headache in an HIV positive patient: diagnostic challenges and approach to treatment .

Headaches are a common complaint in HIV positive patients attending emergency services. A thorough understanding of the differential diagnoses, initial investigations and empirical management of this presentation is essential for the assessing physician. We discuss a case of a patient with known advanced HIV infection presenting with headache to the emergency department. Given the range of possible diagnoses, broad-spectrum antimicrobial therapy was initially commenced. This was stopped when magnetic resonance imaging confirmed a diagnosis of venous sinus thrombosis. Anticoagulation therapy was started in accordance with current clinical guidelines after discussing the rationale and options for treatment with the patient. Here, we review the guidelines and supporting evidence for management of venous sinus thrombosis, and consider the challenges and strategies for engaging a patient with previous poor attendance in their ongoing care.

Why CMV is a candidate for elimination and then eradication.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is well-known for the end organ diseases (EODs) it causes following viraemic dissemination in immunocompromised hosts. These are termed the direct effects of CMV, where a diagnosis can be made in an individual patient. In addition, CMV is associated with indirect effects where populations can be seen to be disadvantaged compared to those without CMV. These indirect effects have been described in solid organ transplants, bone marrow transplants, advanced HIV, people admitted to intensive care units, the elderly and the general population. We summarise the evidence that associates CMV with its direct effects following congenital infection, solid organ transplantation, bone marrow transplantation and advanced HIV as well as its indirect effects in all patient populations. We propose that the greatest worldwide burden of CMV comes from its indirect effects. Control of this infection at the population level is being sought through the development of vaccines to control EODs where cost effectiveness is expected. We propose that the financial case for universal immunisation will be enhanced even further by the potential benefits vaccines may produce against the indirect effects of CMV.