Study on the prediction model of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the rural Xinjiang population based on survival analysis.

PURPOSE: With the increase in aging and cardiovascular risk factors, the morbidity and mortality of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), represented by ischemic heart disease and stroke, continue to rise in China. For better prevention and intervention, relevant guidelines recommend using predictive models for early detection of ASCVD high-risk groups. Therefore, this study aims to establish a population ASCVD prediction model in rural areas of Xinjiang using survival analysis. METHODS: Baseline cohort data were collected from September to December 2016 and followed up till June 2022. A total of 7975 residents (4054 males and 3920 females) aged 30-74 years were included in the analysis. The data set was divided according to different genders, and the training and test sets ratio was 7:3 for different genders. A Cox regression, Lasso-Cox regression, and random survival forest (RSF) model were established in the training set. The model parameters were determined by cross-validation and parameter tuning and then verified in the training set. Traditional ASCVD prediction models (Framingham and China-PAR models) were constructed in the test set. Different models' discrimination and calibration degrees were compared to find the optimal prediction model for this population according to different genders and further analyze the risk factors of ASCVD. RESULTS: After 5.79 years of follow-up, 873 ASCVD events with a cumulative incidence of 10.19% were found (7.57% in men and 14.44% in women). By comparing the discrimination and calibration degrees of each model, the RSF showed the best prediction performance in males and females (male: Area Under Curve (AUC) 0.791 (95%CI 0.767,0.813), C statistic 0.780 (95%CI 0.730,0.829), Brier Score (BS):0.060, female: AUC 0.759 (95%CI 0.734,0.783) C statistic was 0.737 (95%CI 0.702,0.771), BS:0.110). Age, systolic blood pressure (SBP), apolipoprotein B (APOB), Visceral Adiposity Index (VAI), hip circumference (HC), and plasma arteriosclerosis index (AIP) are important predictors of ASCVD in the rural population of Xinjiang. CONCLUSION: The performance of the ASCVD prediction model based on the RSF algorithm is better than that based on Cox regression, Lasso-Cox, and the traditional ASCVD prediction model in the rural population of Xinjiang.

Impact of the baseline insulin resistance surrogates and their longitudinal trajectories on cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke): a prospective cohort study in rural China.

Background: This study aimed to assess the association of baseline insulin resistance (IR) surrogates and their longitudinal trajectories with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) to provide a useful reference for preventing CVD. Methods: This study was a prospective cohort study conducted in the 51st Regiment of the Third Division of Xinjiang Corps. A total of 6362 participants were recruited in 2016 to conduct the baseline survey, and the follow-up surveys in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of CVD according to the baseline IR surrogates of metabolic insulin resistance score (METS-IR) and triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index. Cox regression models were used to assess the association between the baseline IR surrogates and CVD. The impact of the longitudinal trajectories of the IR surrogates on CVD was analyzed after excluding those with IR surrogate data measured ≤2 times. Based on the group-based trajectory model (GBTM), the trajectory patterns of IR surrogates were determined. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of CVD in each trajectory group of METS-IR and TyG index. Cox regression models were used to analyze the association between different trajectory groups of each index and CVD. In addition, the Framingham model was utilized to evaluate whether the addition of the baseline IR surrogates increased the predictive potential of the model. Results: Baseline data analysis included 4712 participants. During a median follow-up of 5.66 years, 572 CVD events were recorded (mean age, 39.42 ± 13.67 years; males, 42.9%). The cumulative CVD incidence increased with the ascending baseline METS-IR and TyG index quartiles (Q1-Q4). The hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval for CVD risk in Q4 of the METS-IR and TyG index were 1.79 (1.25, 2.58) and 1.66 (1.28, 2.17), respectively, when compared with Q1. 4343 participants were included in the trajectory analysis, based on the longitudinal change patterns of the METS-IR and TyG index, the following three trajectory groups were identified: low-increasing, moderate-stable, and elevated-increasing groups. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for CVD risk in the elevated-increasing trajectory group of the METS-IR and TyG index was 2.13 (1.48, 3.06) and 2.63 (1.68, 4.13), respectively, when compared with the low-rising group. The C-index, integrated discrimination improvement value, and net reclassification improvement value were enhanced after adding the baseline METS-IR and TyG index values to the Framingham model (P<0.05). Conclusions: Elevated baseline IR surrogates and their higher long-term trajectories were strongly associated with a high risk of CVD incidence in Xinjiang's rural areas. Regular METS-IR and TyG index monitoring can aid in the early detection of CVD-risk groups.

Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease Is Associated with the Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study in Xinjiang.

In 2020, a group of international experts proposed a new term 'metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease' (MAFLD) to replace 'non-alcoholic fatty liver disease'. This study aimed to describe the epidemic characteristics of MAFLD, incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), and relationship between MAFLD and incident CVD. In 2016, 12,794 Uyghur adults from Kashgar, Xinjiang, were grouped according to the presence or absence of MAFLD. The primary outcome was the occurrence of CVD events. Fatty liver was diagnosed using ultrasound. The prevalence of MAFLD was 16.55%. After excluding patients with previous CVD, 11,444 participants were followed up for a median period of 4.7 years. During the follow-up period, the overall CVD incidence was 10.40% (1190/11,444). The incidence of CVD in the patients with MAFLD was significantly higher than that in the non-MAFLD patients (18.38% vs. 9.02%, p < 0.001; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.20−1.56). The prevalence of MAFLD was relatively low, whereas the incidence of CVD was relatively high among the Uyghur adults in rural Xinjiang. Individuals with MAFLD have a higher risk of developing CVD independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and dyslipidaemia.

Using the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to Investigate the Intention to Use Physical Activity Apps: Cross-Sectional Survey.

BACKGROUND: Many university students are lacking adequate physical exercise and are failing to develop physical activity (PA) behaviors in China. PA app use could improve this situation. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to use the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) to investigate the intention to use PA apps among university students in Guangzhou, China, and how body mass index (BMI) moderates the effects of UTAUT in explaining PA app use intention. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1704 university students from different universities in Guangzhou, China. The UTAUT model was used to measure the determinants of intention to use PA apps. RESULTS: Of the participants, 41.8% (611/1461) intended to use PA apps. All three UTAUT-related scales (performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and social influence) were positively associated with the intention to use PA apps after adjusting for background variables (adjusted odds ratio 1.10-1.31, P<.001). The performance expectancy scale had stronger associations with the intention to use PA apps among those whose BMI were beyond normal range compared with those whose BMI were within normal range (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: UTAUT is useful for understanding university students' intention to use PA apps. Potential moderating effects should be kept in mind when designing UTAUT-based interventions to improve PA via app use.

Intention to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV in China under the scaling-up of ART: the role of healthcare workers' recommendations.

BACKGROUND: The early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLWH) benefits both individuals and societies. However, little is known about the intention to initiate ART among PLWH in China in the context of a scaling-up of treatment or how the recommendations of healthcare workers affect this intention. METHODS: A total of 451 ART-naïve PLWH were recruited from communities in Guangzhou, China for this study. Data were collected by trained physicians via face-to-face interviews. Logistic regression models were fitted for the data analyses. RESULTS: Of the participants, 93.8% were male, 72.7% were infected via homosexual behaviour and 68.5% reported an intention to initiate ART. In the latter category, 77.8, 41.9 and 20.0% of respondents received strong recommendations to initiate ART from healthcare workers at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), community healthcare centres and non-governmental organisations (NGOs), respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, depression, anxiety and strong recommendations from healthcare workers at the CDC and NGOs correlated significantly with ART intention. In the adjusted final hierarchical logistic regression model, the duration of infection [multivariate odds ratio (ORm) = 0.30, p < 0.001], route of HIV infection (ORm = 0.18, p < 0.01), infection status of the current spouse/regular sex partner (ORm = 0.21-0.23, p < 0.01), anxiety (ORm = 2.44-2.65, p < 0.05) and strong recommendations from CDC physicians (ORm = 3.67, p < 0.01) or NGOs workers (ORm = 3.67, p < 0.01) were independently associated with the ART intention, whereas a recommendation from a community healthcare centre physician was not. CONCLUSIONS: In Guangzhou, the prevalence of ART intention was below the 90-90-90 targets. Further studies aimed at an in-depth understanding and encouragement of health care workers' perceptions regarding early ART are warranted as a means of scaling up new ART strategies.

Assessment of the health status and health service perceptions of international migrants coming to Guangzhou, China, from high-, middle- and low-income countries.

BACKGROUND: China, which used to be an export country for migrants, has become a new destination for international migrants due to its rapid economic growth. However, little empirical data is available on the health status of and health service access barriers faced by these international migrants. METHODS: Foreigners who visited the Guangzhou Municipal Exit-Entry Administration Office to extend their visas were invited to participate in the study. Quantitative data were collected using electronic questionnaire in 13 languages. The participants were characterised by the income level of their country of origin (high-, middle- and low-income countries (HICs, MICs and LICs, respectively)), and the key factors associated with their health status, medical insurance coverage and perceptions of health services in China were examined. RESULTS: Overall, 1146 participants from 119 countries participated in the study, 57.1, 25.1 and 17.8% of whom were from MICs, HICs and LICs, respectively. Over one fifth of the participants experienced health problems while staying in China, and about half had no health insurance. Although the participants from HICs were more likely than those from MICs and LICs to have medical insurance, they were also more likely to have health problems. Furthermore, 43.0, 45.0 and 12.0% of the participants thought that the health services in China were good, fair and poor, respectively. Among the participants, those from HICs were less likely to have positive feedback. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to report a quantitative survey of the health status, health insurance coverage, and health service perceptions of a diverse and surging population of international migrants in China. The findings call for more in-depth studies on the challenges presented by the increasing global migration to the health system.