A temporally and spatially explicit, data-driven estimation of airborne ragweed pollen concentrations across Europe.

Ongoing and future climate change driven expansion of aeroallergen-producing plant species comprise a major human health problem across Europe and elsewhere. There is an urgent need to produce accurate, temporally dynamic maps at the continental level, especially in the context of climate uncertainty. This study aimed to restore missing daily ragweed pollen data sets for Europe, to produce phenological maps of ragweed pollen, resulting in the most complete and detailed high-resolution ragweed pollen concentration maps to date. To achieve this, we have developed two statistical procedures, a Gaussian method (GM) and deep learning (DL) for restoring missing daily ragweed pollen data sets, based on the plant's reproductive and growth (phenological, pollen production and frost-related) characteristics. DL model performances were consistently better for estimating seasonal pollen integrals than those of the GM approach. These are the first published modelled maps using altitude correction and flowering phenology to recover missing pollen information. We created a web page (http://euragweedpollen.gmf.u-szeged.hu/), including daily ragweed pollen concentration data sets of the stations examined and their restored daily data, allowing one to upload newly measured or recovered daily data. Generation of these maps provides a means to track pollen impacts in the context of climatic shifts, identify geographical regions with high pollen exposure, determine areas of future vulnerability, apply spatially-explicit mitigation measures and prioritize management interventions.

Home Environment in Early-Life and Lifestyle Factors Associated with Asthma and Allergic Diseases among Inner-City Children from the REPRO_PL Birth Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that, in our REPRO_PL cohort, exposure to indoor allergens and lifestyle factors in early life are associated with risk of asthma, atopic dermatitis, and allergic rhinitis at ten years of age. METHODS: We only examined children who had lived in the same house from birth. Children's exposure to tobacco smoke was assessed based on cotinine levels in urine. House dust samples were collected. RESULTS: Higher Fel d1 concentration in house dust was associated with significantly higher risk of developing asthma at age 10 years (95% CI,10.87 to 20.93; p < 0.001). Frequent house cleaning was associated with development of atopic dermatitis (odds ratio 0.61; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.99; p = 0.045). Clustering of exposure to HDM revealed two types of environment. Cluster 1, defined as lower HDM (dust), in contrast to Cluster 2, defined as higher HDM, was characterized by old-type windows, lower fungus and dampness levels, as well as more frequent house cleaning. CONCLUSION: Exposure to cat allergens and new-type buildings that limit air flow while increasing the condensation of steam on the windows and thereby stimulating the growth of fungi are risk factors for the development of asthma.

Bioaerosols on the atmospheric super highway: An example of long distance transport of Alternaria spores from the Pannonian Plain to Poland.

Alternaria spores are pathogenic to agricultural crops, and the longest and the most severe sporulation seasons are predominantly recorded in rural areas, e.g. the Pannonian Plain (PP) in South-Central Europe. In Poland (Central Europe), airborne Alternaria spore concentrations peak between July and August. In this study, we test the hypothesis that the PP is the source of Alternaria spores recorded in Poland after the main sporulation season (September-October). Airborne Alternaria spores (2005-2019) were collected using volumetric Hirst spore traps located in 38 locations along the potential pathways of air masses, i.e. from Serbia, Romania and Hungary, through the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Ukraine, to Northern Poland. Three potential episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) were selected and characterized in detail, including the analysis of Alternaria spore data, back trajectory analysis, dispersal modelling, and description of local weather and mesoscale synoptic conditions. During selected episodes, increases in Alternaria spore concentrations in Poznan were recorded at unusual times that deviated from the typical diurnal pattern, i.e. at night or during morning hours. Alternaria spore concentrations on the PP were very high (>1000 spores/m3) at that time. The presence of non-local Ambrosia pollen, common to the PP, were also observed in the air. Air mass trajectory analysis and dispersal modelling showed that the northwest part of the PP, north of the Transdanubian Mountains, was the potential source area of Alternaria spores. Our results show that Alternaria spores are transported over long distances from the PP to Poland. These spores may markedly increase local exposure to Alternaria spores in the receptor area and pose a risk to both human and plant health. Alternaria spores followed the same atmospheric route as previously described LDT ragweed pollen, revealing the existence of an atmospheric super highway that transports bioaerosols from the south to the north of Europe.

The impact of data assimilation into the meteorological WRF model on birch pollen modelling.

We analyse the impact of ground-based data assimilation to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model on parameters relevant for birch pollen emission calculations. Then, we use two different emission databases (BASE - no data assimilation, OBSNUD - data assimilation for the meteorological model) in the chemical transport model and evaluate birch pollen concentrations. Finally, we apply a scaling factor for the emissions (BASE and OBSNUD), based on the ratio between simulated and observed seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) to analyse its impact on birch concentrations over Central Europe. Assimilation of observational data significantly reduces model overestimation of air temperature, which is the main parameter responsible for the start of pollen emission and amount of released pollen. The results also show that a relatively small bias in air temperature from the model can lead to significant differences in heating degree days (HDD) value. This may cause the HDD threshold to be attained several days earlier/later than indicated from observational data which has further impact on the start of pollen emission. Even though the bias for air temperature was reduced for OBSNUD, the model indicates a start for the birch pollen season that is too early compared to observations. The start date of the season was improved at two of the 11 stations in Poland. Data assimilation does not have a significant impact on the season's end or SPIn value. The application of the SPIn factor for the emissions results in a much closer birch pollen concentration level to observations even though the factor does not improve the start or end of the pollen season. The post-processing of modelled meteorological fields, such as the application of bias correction, can be considered as a way to further improve the pollen emission modelling.

Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling-a case study for Poland.

In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen allergens have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialized countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly life. In this study, we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model's performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m-3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m-3) with probability of detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and success ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model's performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air.

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland respecting the long distance transport (LDT).

High Ambrosia pollen concentrations in Poland rather rarely come from the local sources. The aim of this study was to define the temporal and spatial differences of the high Ambrosia pollen concentrations by creating models for the pollen transport from the distant sources. This study was thought to determine the direction of the air masses inflow into Poland, carrying Ambrosia pollen, from areas of the bordering countries with the pollen concentrations higher than iSTOTEN_n Poland. Pollen and meteorological datasets at 8 monitoring sites in Poland, and daily pollen concentrations at 11 sites in the Czech Republic, 5 sites in Slovakia and 3 sites in Ukraine were analysed recently. Days with concentrations ≥10 Pollen/m3 and concurrent meteorological situations were analysed in great deal. The HYSPLIT model was applied to compute backward trajectories up to 4 days backward (96 h) and at three altitudes: 20, 500 and 1000 m above ground level (a.g.l.). High pollen concentrations occur most frequently when the air masses inflow into Poland from southerly (S, SE, SW, 44%) and easterly (E, 6%) directions and in no advection situations (25%). In years with the highest frequency of days over 10 Pollen/m3, the prevailing directions of the pollen influx into Poland were from the South (2004-2006, 2008, 2011) but in one year (2014) from the East. Trajectories for the studied period show that air masses come most frequently from Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Sometimes, the Ambrosia pollen transport happens from Ukraine.

Forecasting model of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula pollen concentration levels using spatiotemporal correlation properties of pollen count.

The aim of the study was to create and evaluate models for predicting high levels of daily pollen concentration of Corylus, Alnus, and Betula using a spatiotemporal correlation of pollen count. For each taxon, a high pollen count level was established according to the first allergy symptoms during exposure. The dataset was divided into a training set and a test set, using a stratified random split. For each taxon and city, the model was built using a random forest method. Corylus models performed poorly. However, the study revealed the possibility of predicting with substantial accuracy the occurrence of days with high pollen concentrations of Alnus and Betula using past pollen count data from monitoring sites. These results can be used for building (1) simpler models, which require data only from aerobiological monitoring sites, and (2) combined meteorological and aerobiological models for predicting high levels of pollen concentration.

Environmental factors affecting seasonality of ambulance emergency service visits for exacerbations of asthma and COPD.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the association of severe exacerbations of asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) requiring ambulance emergency service (AES) visits with meteorological parameters and influenza outbreaks. METHODS: The records of patients calling the AES in 2007 and 2008 in the urban area of Lodz due to dyspnea were analyzed. Information on 25 daily reported meteorological parameters was obtained from the local meteorological service and data on influenza outbreaks obtained from the national surveillance service. RESULTS: During the winter months, a significantly higher mean daily number of AES visits for both COPD and asthma were noticed when compared to the summer. Interestingly, the number of daily AES visits correlated with several weather parameters, and the multiple regression analysis confirmed a negative correlation with minimum temperature, mean temperature and the dew point for both diseases (R = 0.526; p < 0.01; R = 0.577; p < 0.01 and R = 0.589; p < 0.01). Furthermore, the increased number of AES visits also correlated with a new number of cases of influenza infections as reported by local influenza surveillance system (rs = 77.6%; p < 0.001 and rs = 80.8%; p < 0.001 for asthma and COPD, respectively). CONCLUSION: Seasonality of AES visits for asthma and COPD are similar and seems to be related to specific weather conditions and to influenza outbreaks.

Association of house dust allergen concentrations with residential conditions in city and in rural houses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to evaluate the relationship between house dust mite, cat and dog allergen levels with household characteristics in the houses of children living in urban and rural areas in central Poland. METHODS: Dust samples were collected from 141 urban and 191 rural houses. Der f1 + Der p1, Can f 1, and Fel d1 levels were measured and associated with residential conditions and atopy-related health outcomes assessed by clinical examination and skin prick testing. RESULTS: Concentrations of mite allergens were lower, and cat and dog allergen levels were higher in urban houses. Fel d1 and Can f1 levels depended on the presence of a respective animal in the house. In urban houses, Der p1 + Der f1 concentration was lower in households with central heating, whereas Can f1 concentration was related to building age. Multivariate analyses revealed that the concentrations of house dust mite and dog allergens were associated with relative humidity, number of people in the household, and the presence of a dog at home. There was no significant association between allergen level and sensitization or atopic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of indoor allergens in urban and rural houses differ significantly, and residential conditions associated with allergen levels seem to be different in both environments.

Associations of allergic sensitization and clinical phenotypes with innate immune response genes polymorphisms are modified by house dust mite allergen exposure.

INTRODUCTION: Polymorphisms within innate immunity genes are associated with allergic phenotypes but results are variable. These associations were not analyzed with respect to allergen exposure. We investigated associations of TLR and CD14 polymorphisms with allergy phenotypes in the context of house dust mite (HDM) exposure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Children, aged 12-16 years (n=326), were recruited from downtown and rural locations and assessed by allergist. Skin prick tests, total and HDM-specific sIgE measurements were done. HDM allergen concentrations in dust were measured. Genetic polymorphisms were identified using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). RESULTS: Allergic rhinitis, asthma and atopy were more prevalent in urban area. Although HDM allergen concentrations were higher in rural households, sIgE were present more frequently in urban children. In the whole population no association was found between HDM exposure and sensitization. In children with CD14/-159CC, CD14/-159TT and TLR9/2848GA genotypes increased exposure to HDM was associated with reduced incidence of allergic rhinitis. Significant associations of increased HDM exposure with reduced incidence of atopy were found for the whole population and subjects with CD14/-159CC, CD14/-1359GT, TLR4/896AA and TLR9/2848GA genotypes. Among children with CD14/-159CC and CD14/-1359GG significant positive correlation between HDM allergen concentrations in household and sensitization to HDM was observed. In contrast, protective effect of high HDM allergen exposure against specific sensitization was seen in subjects with TLR4/896 AG. CONCLUSIONS: Development of specific sensitization and allergy may be associated with innate immune response genes polymorphisms and is modified by allergen exposure.