RESUMO
This paper proposes a methodological approach to analyzing the evolution of the stability of socioeconomic systems and to assessing the risk of their possible destabilization based on the use of mathematical modeling methods. In this paper, a basic model is presented allowing us to describe the joint dynamics of processes in the economic, organizational, and sociopsychological areas of society. The model shows at what parameters of the socioeconomic system its steady functioning is possible, and at which it is impossible. It is shown that the transition from its steady state to an unsteady one is not smooth but occurs as a leap. This methodology is applied to the analysis of stability and change in the Egyptian socioeconomic system after 2010.
Assuntos
Algoritmos , Modelos Teóricos , Classe Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Egito , Sistemas Políticos/economia , Sistemas Políticos/estatística & dados numéricos , Política , Política Pública/economiaRESUMO
The article presents a methodology for the analysis of political crises meant to assess the current situation of sociopolitical (in)stability of the developing and developed societies in question, provide an inertial forecast of the developing situation in a given period, analyse threats to stability threats, and examine possible measures to counteract such threats and their likely influence on the situation. The methodology is based on modeling sociopolitical stability in the country in question with the help of an elaborate logical-mathematical model.
Assuntos
Coleta de Dados/métodos , Previsões/métodos , Sistemas Políticos/estatística & dados numéricos , Problemas Sociais/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Sociológicos , Algoritmos , Técnica Delphi , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Sistemas Políticos/psicologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Problemas Sociais/prevenção & controle , Problemas Sociais/psicologia , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
Treatment of cancer patients remains a serious medical problem and the development of alternative treatment strategies is therefore of great importance. In this connection, we developed a new bacterial-based, anticancer method. Ten cancer patients (three males, seven females) were involved in this study. Bacterial suspension of stationary phase Bacillus oligonitrophilus KU-1 was used as a remedy for peroral administration. In five patients, side effects (sicchasia, slight blood, and intracranial pressure gain) were detected, but all patients showed significant delay of lethal outcome without serious side effects. In conclusion, the suggested method was, in our opinion, a good alternative to conventional chemo- and radiotherapy techniques. In order to evaluate its efficiency for various tumors, a double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicenter study is needed.
Assuntos
Antineoplásicos/administração & dosagem , Bacillus , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Neoplasias/terapia , Probióticos/administração & dosagem , Administração Oral , Adulto , Idoso , Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/microbiologia , Probióticos/uso terapêutico , Taxa de Sobrevida , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Chemotherapy and radiotherapy remain mostly palliative methods for metastatic cancer treatment. Limitations in efficacy and safety of established treatments continue to underline the need for improved treatments for malignancy. Results with some probiotics with antitumor activity have been promising. Here, we report that oral reception of Bacillus oligonitrophilus KU-1 resulted in the prolongation of lives in cancer patients with terminal prognosis and stabilization of cancer growth. The theoretical basis for the phenomena observed is discussed.