Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.

Estimating the impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 incidence is complicated by several factors, including successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and changing population immunity from vaccination and infection. We develop an age-structured multi-strain COVID-19 transmission model and inference framework to estimate vaccination and non-pharmaceutical intervention impact accounting for these factors. We apply this framework to COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia and estimate that the vaccination programme averted 34.8% (95% credible interval: 34.5-35.2%) of 223,000 symptomatic cases, 49.6% (48.7-50.5%) of 5830 hospitalisations and 64.2% (63.1-65.3%) of 1540 hospital deaths that would have occurred in a scenario without vaccination up to May 2022. We estimate the booster campaign contributed 4.5%, 1.9%, and 0.4% to overall reductions in cases, hospitalisations, and deaths. Our results suggest that removing lockdowns during the first two waves would have had non-linear effects on incidence by altering accumulation of population immunity. Our estimates of vaccination and booster impact differ from those for other countries due to differences in age structure, previous exposure levels and timing of variant introduction relative to vaccination, emphasising the importance of detailed analysis that accounts for these factors.

Transfusion risk associated with recent arbovirus outbreaks in French Polynesia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: French Polynesia, where dengue virus (DENV) has been present for a long time, experienced two successive outbreaks of Zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya viruses (CHIKV) between 2013 and 2015. To avoid the transmission of these viruses by transfusion, nucleic acid testing (NAT) has been in place for DENV since 2013 and for ZIKV and CHIKV during epidemics. The objective was to compare the estimated risk of viraemic blood donation with NAT results and to discuss the impact on the prevention of transfusion-related infectious risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The average risks of viraemic blood donation were estimated per year for DENV, and during the epidemic periods for ZIKV and CHIKV, using the Biggerstaff and Petersen model based on the incidence rate, the mean length of viraemia and the frequency of asymptomatic infection. The estimated risks were compared with the number of viraemic blood donations detected by NAT. RESULTS: According to the different assumptions, risks estimates ranged from 11·2 to 53·1/100 000 donations for DENV, 746 to 1924/100 000 for ZIKV and 1083 /100 000 for CHIKV. When compared to the number of donations collected during the study periods, these estimates match NAT results (5 blood donors reactive for DENV, 42 for ZIKV and 34 for CHIKV). CONCLUSION: The risks of viraemic blood donation were related to the viral incidence in the general population and concordant with NAT results. These findings suggest that the screening may be optimized by a targeted NAT implementation based on incidence data.

Zika Virus Infection during Pregnancy and Effects on Early Childhood Development, French Polynesia, 2013-2016.

Congenital Zika virus syndrome consists of a large spectrum of neurologic abnormalities seen in infants infected with Zika virus in utero. However, little is known about the effects of Zika virus intrauterine infection on the neurocognitive development of children born without birth defects. Using a case-control study design, we investigated the temporal association of a cluster of congenital defects with Zika virus infection. In a nested study, we also assessed the early childhood development of children recruited in the initial study as controls who were born without known birth defects,. We found evidence for an association of congenital defects with both maternal Zika virus seropositivity (time of infection unknown) and symptomatic Zika virus infection during pregnancy. Although the early childhood development assessment found no excess burden of developmental delay associated with maternal Zika virus infection, larger, longer-term studies are needed.

Seroprevalence of Dengue and Chikungunya Virus Antibodies, French Polynesia, 2014-2015.

We investigated dengue and chikungunya virus antibody seroprevalence in French Polynesia during 2014-2015. Dengue virus seroprevalence was ≈60% among schoolchildren and >83% among the general population; chikungunya virus seroprevalence was <3% before and 76% after Zika virus emergence (2013). Dengue virus herd immunity may affect Zika virus infection and pathogenesis.

Zika virus in French Polynesia 2013-14: anatomy of a completed outbreak.

The Zika virus crisis exemplified the risk associated with emerging pathogens and was a reminder that preparedness for the worst-case scenario, although challenging, is needed. Herein, we review all data reported during the unexpected emergence of Zika virus in French Polynesia in late 2013. We focus on the new findings reported during this outbreak, especially the first description of severe neurological complications in adults and the retrospective description of CNS malformations in neonates, the isolation of Zika virus in semen, the potential for blood-transfusion transmission, mother-to-child transmission, and the development of new diagnostic assays. We describe the effect of this outbreak on health systems, the implementation of vector-borne control strategies, and the line of communication used to alert the international community of the new risk associated with Zika virus. This outbreak highlighted the need for careful monitoring of all unexpected events that occur during an emergence, to implement surveillance and research programmes in parallel to management of cases, and to be prepared to the worst-case scenario.

Revising rates of asymptomatic Zika virus infection based on sentinel surveillance data from French Overseas Territories.

French Polynesia and the French Territories of the Americas (FTAs) have experienced outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection. These territories used similar sentinel syndromic surveillance to follow the epidemics. However, the surveillance system only takes into account consulting patients diagnosed with ZIKV disease, while non-consulting cases, as well as asymptomatic cases, are not taken into account. In the French territories under study, the ratio of consulting to non-consulting patients was found to likely be as low as 1/3 to 1/4, and rough estimates of the ZIKV asymptomatic infections indicated a lower rate than previously reported (i.e., not more than half).

Ross River Virus Seroprevalence, French Polynesia, 2014-2015.

Ross River virus (RRV), spread by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, is the most commonly transmitted arbovirus in Australia. A serosurvey of blood donors in French Polynesia during 2011-2013 suggested that RRV circulated without being detected. We report RRV circulation in French Polynesia based on further screening of blood samples collected during 2014-2015.

Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique.

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.

Zika Virus Seroprevalence, French Polynesia, 2014-2015.

During 2013-2014, French Polynesia experienced an outbreak of Zika virus infection. Serosurveys conducted at the end of the outbreak and 18 months later showed lower than expected disease prevalence rates (49%) and asymptomatic:symptomatic case ratios (1:1) in the general population but significantly different prevalence rates (66%) and asymptomatic:symptomatic ratios (1:2) in schoolchildren.

Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak.

Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6-4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32-17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91-97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12-20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases.

Congenital cerebral malformations and dysfunction in fetuses and newborns following the 2013 to 2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia.

We detected an unusual increase in congenital cerebral malformations and dysfunction in fetuses and newborns in French Polynesia, following an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), from October 2013 to March 2014. A retrospective review identified 19 cases, including eight with major brain lesions and severe microcephaly, six with severe cerebral lesions without microcephaly and five with brainstem dysfunction without visible malformations. Imaging revealed profound neurological lesions (septal and callosal disruption, ventriculomegaly, abnormal neuronal migration, cerebellar hypoplasia, occipital pseudocysts, brain calcifications). Amniotic fluid was drawn from seven cases at gestation weeks 20 to 29. ZIKV RNA was detected by RT-PCR and infectious ZIKV isolates were obtained in four of five microcephalic, but not in two non-microcephalic cases with severe brain lesions. Medical termination of pregnancy was performed in eleven cases; two cases with brainstem dysfunction died in the first months of life; six cases are alive, with severe neurological impairment. The results show that four of seven tested fetuses with major neurological injuries were infected with ZIKV in utero. For other non-microcephalic, congenital abnormalities we were not able to prove or exclude ZIKV infection retrospectively. The unusual occurrence of brain malformations or dysfunction without microcephaly following a ZIKV outbreak needs further studies.

Bulletin d’information sanitaires, epidemiologiques et statistiques: bilan de l’epidemie a virus zika en polynesie francaise, 2013-2014: Bises nº13

Secrétariat de la surveillance dans la Polynésie française Santé alerter le public sur le virus, Zika, la fièvre de la dengue et ses complications causées par les moustiques Aedes.

Association between Zika virus and microcephaly in French Polynesia, 2013-15: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of Zika virus in the Americas has coincided with increased reports of babies born with microcephaly. On Feb 1, 2016, WHO declared the suspected link between Zika virus and microcephaly to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. This association, however, has not been precisely quantified. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed data from a Zika virus outbreak in French Polynesia, which was the largest documented outbreak before that in the Americas. We used serological and surveillance data to estimate the probability of infection with Zika virus for each week of the epidemic and searched medical records to identify all cases of microcephaly from September, 2013, to July, 2015. Simple models were used to assess periods of risk in pregnancy when Zika virus might increase the risk of microcephaly and estimate the associated risk. FINDINGS: The Zika virus outbreak began in October, 2013, and ended in April, 2014, and 66% (95% CI 62-70) of the general population were infected. Of the eight microcephaly cases identified during the 23-month study period, seven (88%) occurred in the 4-month period March 1 to July 10, 2014. The timing of these cases was best explained by a period of risk in the first trimester of pregnancy. In this model, the baseline prevalence of microcephaly was two cases (95% CI 0-8) per 10,000 neonates, and the risk of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection was 95 cases (34-191) per 10,000 women infected in the first trimester. We could not rule out an increased risk of microcephaly from infection in other trimesters, but models that excluded the first trimester were not supported by the data. INTERPRETATION: Our findings provide a quantitative estimate of the risk of microcephaly in fetuses and neonates whose mothers are infected with Zika virus. FUNDING: Labex-IBEID, NIH-MIDAS, AXA Research fund, EU-PREDEMICS.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome outbreak associated with Zika virus infection in French Polynesia: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Between October, 2013, and April, 2014, French Polynesia experienced the largest Zika virus outbreak ever described at that time. During the same period, an increase in Guillain-Barré syndrome was reported, suggesting a possible association between Zika virus and Guillain-Barré syndrome. We aimed to assess the role of Zika virus and dengue virus infection in developing Guillain-Barré syndrome. METHODS: In this case-control study, cases were patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome diagnosed at the Centre Hospitalier de Polynésie Française (Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia) during the outbreak period. Controls were age-matched, sex-matched, and residence-matched patients who presented at the hospital with a non-febrile illness (control group 1; n=98) and age-matched patients with acute Zika virus disease and no neurological symptoms (control group 2; n=70). Virological investigations included RT-PCR for Zika virus, and both microsphere immunofluorescent and seroneutralisation assays for Zika virus and dengue virus. Anti-glycolipid reactivity was studied in patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome using both ELISA and combinatorial microarrays. FINDINGS: 42 patients were diagnosed with Guillain-Barré syndrome during the study period. 41 (98%) patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had anti-Zika virus IgM or IgG, and all (100%) had neutralising antibodies against Zika virus compared with 54 (56%) of 98 in control group 1 (p<0.0001). 39 (93%) patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had Zika virus IgM and 37 (88%) had experienced a transient illness in a median of 6 days (IQR 4-10) before the onset of neurological symptoms, suggesting recent Zika virus infection. Patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome had electrophysiological findings compatible with acute motor axonal neuropathy (AMAN) type, and had rapid evolution of disease (median duration of the installation and plateau phases was 6 [IQR 4-9] and 4 days [3-10], respectively). 12 (29%) patients required respiratory assistance. No patients died. Anti-glycolipid antibody activity was found in 13 (31%) patients, and notably against GA1 in eight (19%) patients, by ELISA and 19 (46%) of 41 by glycoarray at admission. The typical AMAN-associated anti-ganglioside antibodies were rarely present. Past dengue virus history did not differ significantly between patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome and those in the two control groups (95%, 89%, and 83%, respectively). INTERPRETATION: This is the first study providing evidence for Zika virus infection causing Guillain-Barré syndrome. Because Zika virus is spreading rapidly across the Americas, at risk countries need to prepare for adequate intensive care beds capacity to manage patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome. FUNDING: Labex Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, EU 7th framework program PREDEMICS. and Wellcome Trust.

Salmonella enterica serotype enteritidis in French Polynesia, South Pacific, 2008-2013.

Outbreaks of Salmonella enterica serotype Enteritidis infections associated with eggs occurred in French Polynesia during 2008-2013. Molecular analysis of isolates by using clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat polymorphisms and multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis was performed. This subtyping made defining the epidemic strain, finding the source, and decontaminating affected poultry flocks possible.

Dengue virus type 3, South Pacific Islands, 2013.

After an 18-year absence, dengue virus serotype 3 reemerged in the South Pacific Islands in 2013. Outbreaks in western (Solomon Islands) and eastern (French Polynesia) regions were caused by different genotypes. This finding suggested that immunity against dengue virus serotype, rather than virus genotype, was the principal determinant of reemergence.

Recent emergence of dengue virus serotype 4 in French Polynesia results from multiple introductions from other South Pacific Islands.

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs.