Strategies for integrating scientific evidence in water policy and law in the face of uncertainty.

Understanding how human actions and environmental change affect water resources is crucial for addressing complex water management issues. The scientific tools that can produce the necessary information are ecological indicators, referring to measurable properties of the ecosystem state; environmental monitoring, the data collection process that is required to evaluate the progress towards reaching water management goals; mathematical models, linking human disturbances with the ecosystem state to predict environmental impacts; and scenarios, assisting in long-term management and policy implementation. Paradoxically, despite the rapid generation of data, evolving scientific understanding, and recent advancements in systems modeling, there is a striking imbalance between knowledge production and knowledge utilization in decision-making. In this paper, we examine the role and potential capacity of scientific tools in guiding governmental decision-making processes and identify the most critical disparities between water management, policy, law, and science. We demonstrate how the complex, uncertain, and gradually evolving nature of scientific knowledge might not always fit aptly to the legislative and policy processes and structures. We contend that the solution towards increased understanding of socio-ecological systems and reduced uncertainty lies in strengthening the connections between water management theory and practice, among the scientific tools themselves, among different stakeholders, and among the social, economic, and ecological facets of water quality management, law, and policy. We conclude by tying in three knowledge-exchange strategies, namely - adaptive management, Driver-Pressure-Status-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, and participatory modeling - that offer complementary perspectives to bridge the gap between science and policy.

Macrosystem community change in lake phytoplankton and its implications for diversity and function.

Aim: We use lake phytoplankton community data to quantify the spatio-temporal and scale-dependent impacts of eutrophication, land-use and climate change on species niches and community assembly processes while accounting for species traits and phylogenetic constraints. Location: Finland. Time period: 1977-2017. Major taxa: Phytoplankton. Methods: We use hierarchical modelling of species communities (HMSC) to model metacommunity trajectories at 853 lakes over four decades of environmental change, including a hierarchical spatial structure to account for scale-dependent processes. Using a "region of common profile" approach, we evaluate compositional changes of species communities and trait profiles and investigate their temporal development. Results: We demonstrate the emergence of novel and widespread community composition clusters in previously more compositionally homogeneous communities, with cluster-specific community trait profiles, indicating functional differences. A strong phylogenetic signal of species responses to the environment implies similar responses among closely related taxa. Community cluster-specific species prevalence indicates lower taxonomic dispersion within the current dominant clusters compared with the historically dominant cluster and an overall higher prevalence of smaller species sizes within communities. Our findings denote profound spatio-temporal structuring of species co-occurrence patterns and highlight functional differences of lake phytoplankton communities. Main conclusions: Diverging community trajectories have led to a nationwide reshuffling of lake phytoplankton communities. At regional and national scales, lakes are not single entities but metacommunity hubs in an interconnected waterscape. The assembly mechanisms of phytoplankton communities are strongly structured by spatio-temporal dynamics, which have led to novel community types, but only a minor part of this reshuffling could be linked to temporal environmental change.

A practical approach to improve the statistical performance of surface water monitoring networks.

The representativeness of aquatic ecosystem monitoring and the precision of the assessment results are of high importance when implementing the EU's Water Framework Directive that aims to secure a good status of waterbodies in Europe. However, adapting monitoring designs to answer the objectives and allocating the sampling resources effectively are seldom practiced. Here, we present a practical solution how the sampling effort could be re-allocated without decreasing the precision and confidence of status class assignment. For demonstrating this, we used a large data set of 272 intensively monitored Finnish lake, coastal, and river waterbodies utilizing an existing framework for quantifying the uncertainties in the status class estimation. We estimated the temporal and spatial variance components, as well as the effect of sampling allocation to the precision and confidence of chlorophyll-a and total phosphorus. Our results suggest that almost 70% of the lake and coastal waterbodies, and 27% of the river waterbodies, were classified without sufficient confidence in these variables. On the other hand, many of the waterbodies produced unnecessary precise metric means. Thus, reallocation of sampling effort is needed. Our results show that, even though the studied variables are among the most monitored status metrics, the unexplained variation is still high. Combining multiple data sets and using fixed covariates would improve the modeling performance. Our study highlights that ongoing monitoring programs should be evaluated more systematically, and the information from the statistical uncertainty analysis should be brought concretely to the decision-making process.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Ecological and Economic Objectives of River Basin Management Reveals a Potential Flaw in the Goal Setting of the EU Water Framework Directive.

The biological status of European lakes has not improved as expected despite up-to-date legislation and ecological standards. As a result, the realism of objectives and the attainment of related ecological standards are under doubt. This paper gets to the bottom of a river basin management plan of a eutrophic lake in Finland and presents the ecological and economic impacts of environmental and societal drivers and planned management measures. For these purposes, we performed a Monte Carlo simulation of a diffuse nutrient load, lake water quality and cost-benefit models. Simulations were integrated into a Bayesian influence diagram that revealed the basic uncertainties. It turned out that the attainment of good ecological status as qualified in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union is unlikely within given socio-economic constraints. Therefore, management objectives and ecological and economic standards need to be reassessed and reset to provide a realistic goal setting for management. More effort should be put into the evaluation of the total monetary benefits and on the monitoring of lake phosphorus balances to reduce the uncertainties, and the resulting margin of safety and costs and risks of planned management measures.

Participatory operations model for cost-efficient monitoring and modeling of river basins--A systematic approach.

The worldwide economic downturn and the climate change in the beginning of 21st century have stressed the need for cost efficient and systematic operations model for the monitoring and management of surface waters. However, these processes are still all too fragmented and incapable to respond these challenges. For example in Finland, the estimation of the costs and benefits of planned management measures is insufficient. On this account, we present a new operations model to streamline these processes and to ensure the lucid decision making and the coherent implementation which facilitate the participation of public and all the involved stakeholders. The model was demonstrated in the real world management of a lake. The benefits, pitfalls and development needs were identified. After the demonstration, the operations model was put into operation and has been actively used in several other management projects throughout Finland.

Contamination risk of raw drinking water caused by PFOA sources along a river reach in south-western Finland.

Transport of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was simulated in the beginning of River Kokemäenjoki in Finland using one-dimensional SOBEK river model. River Kokemäenjoki is used as a raw water source for an artificial groundwater recharge plant, and the raw water intake plant is located near the downstream end of the model application area. Measured surface water and wastewater concentrations were used to determine the PFOA input to the river and to evaluate the simulation results. The maximum computed PFOA concentrations in the river at the location of the raw water intake plant during the simulation period Dec. 1, 2011-Feb. 16, 2014 were 0.92 ng/l and 3.12 ng/l for two alternative modeling scenarios. These concentration values are 2.3% and 7.8%, respectively, of the 40 ng/l guideline threshold value for drinking water. The current annual median and maximum PFOA loads to the river were calculated to be 3.9 kg/year and 10 kg/year respectively. According to the simulation results, the PFOA load would need to rise to a level of 57 kg/year for the 40 ng/l guideline value to be exceeded in river water at the raw water intake plant during a dry season. It is thus unlikely that PFOA concentration in raw water would reach the guideline value without the appearance of new PFOA sources. The communal wastewater treatment plants in the study area caused on average 11% of the total PFOA load. This raises a concern about the origin of the remaining 89% of the PFOA load and the related risk factors.

Statistical Dimensioning of Nutrient Loading Reduction: LLR Assessment Tool for Lake Managers.

Implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) has set a great challenge on river basin management planning. Assessing the water quality of lakes and coastal waters as well as setting the accepted nutrient loading levels requires appropriate decision supporting tools and models. Uncertainty that is inevitably related to the assessment results and rises from several sources calls for more precise quantification and consideration. In this study, we present a modeling tool, called lake load response (LLR), which can be used for statistical dimensioning of the nutrient loading reduction. LLR calculates the reduction that is needed to achieve good ecological status in a lake in terms of total nutrients and chlorophyll a (chl-a) concentration. We show that by combining an empirical nutrient retention model with a hierarchical chl-a model, the national lake monitoring data can be used more efficiently for predictions to a single lake. To estimate the uncertainties, we separate the residual variability and the parameter uncertainty of the modeling results with the probabilistic Bayesian modeling framework. LLR has been developed to answer the urgent need for fast and simple assessment methods, especially when implementing WFD at such an extensive scale as in Finland. With a case study for an eutrophic Finnish lake, we demonstrate how the model can be utilized to set the target loadings and to see how the uncertainties are quantified and how they are accumulating within the modeling chain.

Assimilation of satellite data to 3D hydrodynamic model of Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi.

To analyze the applicability of direct insertion of total suspended matter (TSM) concentration field based on turbidity derived from satellite data to numerical simulation, dispersion studies of suspended matter in Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi (lake area 154 km²; mean depth 5.4 m) were conducted using the 3D COHERENS simulation model. To evaluate the practicality of direct insertion, five cases with different initialization frequencies were conducted: (1) every time, when satellite data were available; (2) every 10 days; (3) 20 days; (4) 30 days; and (5) control run without repeated initialization. To determine the effectiveness of initialization frequency, three methods of comparison were used: simple spatial differences of TSM concentration without biomass in the lake surface layer; averaged spatial differences between initialization data and the forecasts; and time series of TSM concentration and observation data at 1 m depth at the deepest point of the lake. Results showed that direct insertion improves the forecast significantly, even if it is applied less often.

A decision framework for possible remediation of contaminated sediments in the River Kymijoki, Finland.

BACKGROUND, AIM, AND SCOPE: The paper describes the spatial contamination of the River Kymijoki, South-Eastern Finland, and the coastal region of the Gulf of Finland with PCDD/Fs and mercury. The findings of ecotoxicologial and human health studies are also reported, including environmental and human risk assessments. Sediments from the River Kymijoki, draining into the Gulf of Finland, have been heavily polluted by the pulp and paper industry and by chemical industries. A wood preservative, known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river between 1940 and 1984 causing severe pollution of river sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF). Moreover, the sediments have been polluted with mercury (Hg) from chlor-alkali production and the use of Hg as a slimicide in pulp and paper manufacturing. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An extensive sediment survey was conducted as well as sediment transport modeling, toxicity screening of sediment invertebrates, and a survey of contaminant bioaccumulation in invertebrates and fish. Studies on human exposure to PCDD/Fs and the possible effects on hypermineralization of teeth as well as an epidemiological study to reveal increased cancer risk were also conducted. An assessment of the ecological and human health risks with a null hypothesis (no remediation) was undertaken. RESULTS: The sediment survey revealed severe contamination of river and coastal sediments with PCDD/Fs and Hg. The total volume of contaminated sediments was estimated to reach 5x10(6) m3 and hot spots with extremely high concentrations (max 292,000 ng g(-1) or 1,060 ng I-TEQ g(-1) d.w.) were located immediately downstream from the pollution source (approximately 90,000 m3). Sediment contamination was accompanied by changes in benthic assemblages, but direct effects were masked by many factors. The fish showed only slightly elevated PCDD/F levels in muscle, but orders of magnitude higher in the liver compared with reference freshwater sites and the Baltic Sea. The concentrations in human fat did not reveal high human exposure in the Kymijoki area in general and was lower than in sea fishermen. The relative risk for total cancer among farmers was marginally higher (RR=1.13) among those living close to the river, compared with farmers living further away, and the possibility of increased cancer risk cannot be ruled out. A conservative risk assessment revealed that the present probability of exceeding the WHO upper exposure limit of 4 pg WHO-TEQ kg(-1) d(-1) for PCDD/Fs and DL-PCBs was 6%. The probability of exceeding the WHO limit value of 0.23 mug kg(-1) d(-1) for methyl mercury was estimated to be notably higher at 62%. Based on these studies and the estimated risks connected with different remediation techniques a general remediation plan with cost benefit analysis was generated for several sub-regions in the river. Dredging, on-site treatment, and a close disposal of the most contaminated sediments (90,000 m3) was suggested as the first phase of the remediation. The decision regarding the start of remediation will be made during autumn 2008. CONCLUSIONS: The sediments in the River Kymijoki are heavily polluted with PCDD/Fs and mercury from earlier chlorophenol, chlor-alkali, and pulp and paper manufacturing. A continuous transport of contaminants is taking place to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea. The highly increased PCDD/F and Hg levels in river sediments pose an ecotoxicological risk to benthic fauna, to fish-eating predators and probably to human health. The risks posed by mercury exceed those from PCDD/Fs and need to be evaluated for (former) chlor-alkali sites and other mercury releasing industries as one basis for remediation decision making. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: The studies form the basis of a risk management strategy and a plan for possible remediation of contaminated sediments currently under consideration in the Southeast Finland Regional Environment Centre. It is recommended that a detailed restoration plan for the most seriously contaminated areas should be undertaken. Based on current knowledge, the restoration of the whole river is not feasible, considering the current risk caused by the contaminated sediment in the river and the costs of an extensive restoration project. The experiences gained in the present case should be utilized in the evaluation of PCDD/F- and mercury-contaminated sites in other countries. The case demonstrates that the historic reservoirs are of contemporary relevance and should be addressed, e.g., in the national implementation plans of the Stockholm Convention.

Contamination of River Kymijoki sediments with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans and mercury and their transport to the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea.

Kymijoki, the fourth largest river in Finland, has been heavily polluted by pulp mill effluents as well as the chemical industry. Up to 24,000 ton of wood preservative, chlorophenol known as Ky-5, was manufactured in the upper reaches of the river, an unknown amount of which was discharged into the river between 1940 and 1984. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) occurred as impurities in the final Ky-5 product. The PCDD/F concentrations and burden in the river sediments were studied and the transport of PCDD/Fs from contaminated sites downstream and into the Gulf of Finland in the Baltic Sea was estimated. More than 190 sediment cores were sampled to estimate the volume of contaminated sediments and the total PCDD/F burden. The transport of PCDD/Fs was estimated using sediment traps placed at several sites. The survey revealed that sediments in the river were heavily polluted by PCDD/Fs, the main toxic congener being 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-heptachlorodibenzofuran, a major contaminant in the Ky-5 product. The mean total concentration at the most polluted river site downstream from the main source was 42000 microg kg(-1) d.w. (106 microg I-TEQ kg(-1)). The elevated concentrations in the coastal region and the present estimated transport from the River Kymijoki confirm earlier assessments that the river is a major source of PCDD/F for the Gulf of Finland.

Estimating nutrients and chlorophyll a relationships in Finnish Lakes.

We model the response of chlorophyll a-a surrogate for the phytoplankton community volume-to variations in lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations. The model is fitted to a large cross-sectional data set from the Finnish Lake monitoring network. The objective is to support the Finnish Government in identifying management actions to achieve compliance of the chlorophyll a concentration standard with a given confidence level and to provide tools for the estimation of critical (target) loads for nutrients in monitored lakes. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical linear model which combines advantages of both the currently preferred non-hierarchical lake-type-specific linear model and lake-specific linear model fitted separately using data from a single lake. The hierarchical model is less biased at lake-level compared to the lake type model. In contrast to the lake model, it predicts the lake specific chlorophyll a response to nutrients outside the lake specific observational range. The hierarchical model is used to calculate probabilities of chlorophyll a concentration exceeding the standard under different nitrogen and phosphorus concentration combinations. These probabilities can be used to estimate acceptable nitrogen-phosphorus concentration combinations by a lake manager. We discuss how our study can be useful in implementing the European Water Framework Directive.

Modeling the transport of PCDD/F compounds in a contaminated river and the possible influence of restoration dredging on calculated fluxes.

River Kymijoki, the fourth largest river in Finland, has been heavily polluted by pulp mill effluents as well as by chemical industry. Loading has been reduced considerably, although remains of past emissions still exist in river sediments. The sediments are highly contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated diphenyl ethers (PCDEs), and mercury originating from production of the chlorophenolic wood preservative (Ky-5) and other sources. The objective of this study was to simulate the transport of these PCDD/F compounds with a one-dimensional flow and transport model and to assess the impact of restoration dredging. Using the estimated trend in PCDD/F loading, downstream concentrations were calculated until 2020. If contaminated sediments are removed by dredging, the temporary increase of PCDD/F concentrations in downstream water and surface sediments will be within acceptable limits. Long-term predictions indicated only a minor decrease in surface sediment concentrations but a major decrease if the most contaminated sediments close to the emission source were removed. A more detailed assessment of the effects is suggested.

Benchmark criteria: a tool for selecting appropriate models in the field of water management.

A milestone in the field of European water protection policy is the European Union's Water Framework Directive (WFD), which came into force in December 2000 and which integrates the management of European waters in many ways. In this study, we start by focusing on management issues connected to the implementation of the WFD and pose a question: "what type of models would be the most suitable for use in the context of the WFD?" With this question in mind, we aim to establish a set of operational and functional selection criteria for (computer) models whose application is intended to support decision-making related to a particular water management issue. These so-called "benchmark criteria" should help water managers and other model users in choosing appropriate models, e.g., for the WFD implementation purposes. We first describe models and their use in general and then propose an approach for setting the benchmark criteria for models, basing it on the concept of uncertainty management, while keeping firmly in mind the important role of citizens and citizen organizations in water management. The suggested benchmark criteria are in the form of 14 questions through which each model can be evaluated. Finally, the process for testing and refining the benchmark criteria is highlighted.