Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.

Overview of Canada's Answer to the COVID-19 Pandemic's First Wave (January-April 2020).

Canada is a federal state of almost 38 million inhabitants distributed over ten provinces and three territories, each with their own power regarding health. This case study describes the health infrastructures' situation before the COVID-19 outbreak and their adaptations to face the expected cases, the available epidemiologic data for the beginning of the first wave (January-April 2020), and the public health and economic measures taken to control the pandemic both at the federal level and breaking down by province and territory. Canadian health infrastructures offered on average 12.9 intensive care units beds per 100,000 (occupancy rate ~90% before the outbreak), unevenly distributed across provinces and territories. Canada implemented public health measures, such as social distancing, when hospitalization and death rates due to the pandemic were still lower than in other countries; each province and territory adapted and implemented specific measures. Cumulated cases and deaths substantially increased from mid-March 2020, reaching 65 cases and 2 deaths per 100,000 on April 12, with strong differences across provinces and territories. Canada has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic's first wave with a generally slower dynamic than in the USA or in the European Union at the same period. This suggests that implementation of public health measures when health indicators were still low may have been efficient in Canada; yet the long-term care sector faced many challenges in some provinces, which drove a large part of the pandemic indicators.

[Variation in the plasma concentration of B-type natriuretic peptide in emergent paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, in acute pulmonary embolism, in acute coronary syndrome and in dilated cardiomyopathy]. / Variazioni della concentrazione plasmatica del peptide natriuretico di tipo B in urgenza nella fibrillazione atriale parossistica, nell'edema polmonare acuto, nella sindrome coronarica acuta e nella cardiomiopatia dilatativa.

Our research is based on the critical evaluation of plasma concentration variation of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP)--in emergency--in paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, acute pulmonary edema, acute coronary syndrome and dilated cardiomyopathy. The aim of our research was to assess if the BNP concentration variation may be useful in the diagnosis and therapy. Peptide synthesis takes place mainly in the ventricular myocardium. We selected 102 patients: 27 control subjects, and 75 admitted to the emergency and reception department for dyspnea and/or precordialgia and/or palpitations. At the beginning they were considered as one group only, and then they were divided into groups according to the diagnosis: 20 with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with reversion to sinus rhythm in the first week; 20 with acute pulmonary edema; 22 with acute coronary syndrome without electrocardiographic ST-segment changes; 13 with compensated dilated cardiomyopathy. Our research assessed that the BNP activation and secretion are evident especially in patients with heart failure and remains at the high level until the administration of an effective therapy and then they reach a balance with values higher than the standards, while in the paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and in acute coronary syndrome they rise and come back to the standard levels or even at lower levels after the disease solution. For this reason, BNP reiterated measurements allow to assess treatment efficacy, even at home, and to optimize the therapy. The main limit of BNP diagnostic role is in the need of knowing in advance the specific values for each patient. The BNP concentration evaluation in the acute phase is necessary to differentiate patients with dyspnea due to heart failure from those with pulmonary pathologies, while the BNP assessment in the acute coronary syndrome predicted exitus or heart failure manifestations.