Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool.

INTRODUCTION: The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS: A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

A cross-sectional analysis of publication of pediatric global health abstracts from seven major international conferences.

Research presented at conferences may increase context-specific evidence in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where global childhood disease burden is greatest and where massive relative deficits in research persist. Publication of studies presented at conferences is necessary for complete results dissemination. Our objective was to determine the frequency of publication of pediatric global health conference abstracts and to identify factors associated with publication. We conducted a cross-sectional study of abstracts that reported pediatric research conducted in at least one LMIC presented at seven major scientific conferences in 2017, 2018, and 2019. We used PubMed, EMBASE and Google Scholar to search for publications of the results presented as abstracts. We created a Kaplan-Meier curve to determine the cumulative incidence of publications and used predetermined abstract-level factors to create a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model to identify factors associated with time to publication. There were 8,105 abstracts reviewed and 1,433 (17.7%) reported pediatric research conducted in one or more LMICs. The probability of publication of pediatric global health abstracts was 33.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31.2-36.1%) at 24 months and 46.6% (95% CI 44.0-49.3%) at 48 months. Abstracts that reported research conducted in East Asia and Pacific (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.06, 95% CI 1.74-5.24), South Asia (aHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.30-3.91%), and upper-middle-income countries (1.50, 95% CI 1.12-2.02) were published sooner than those that reported research in LMICs in Europe and Central Asia and lower-middle-income countries, respectively. Fewer than half of pediatric global health abstracts were published in peer-reviewed journals up to four years after presentation at international conferences. Efforts are urgently needed to promote the widespread and long-lasting dissemination of pediatric research conducted in LMICs presented as abstracts to provide a more robust evidence base for both clinical care and policy related to child health.

Has Authorship in the Decolonizing Global Health Movement Been Colonized?

Background: Decolonization in global health is a recent movement aimed at relinquishing remnants of supremacist mindsets, inequitable structures, and power differentials in global health. Objective: To determine the author demographics of publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships between low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of publications related to decolonizing global health and global health partnerships from the inception of the selected journal databases (i.e., Medline, CAB Global Health, EMBASE, CINAHL, and Web of Science) to November 14, 2022. Author country affiliations were assigned as listed in each publication. Author gender was assigned using author first name and the software genderize.io. Descriptive statistics were used for author country income bracket, gender, and distribution. Findings: Among 197 publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships, there were 691 total authors (median 2 authors per publication, interquartile range 1, 4). Publications with author bylines comprised exclusively of authors affiliated with HICs were most common (70.0%, n = 138) followed by those with authors affiliated both with HICs and LMICs (22.3%, n = 44). Only 7.6% (n = 15) of publications had author bylines comprised exclusively of authors affiliated with LMICs. Over half (54.0%, n = 373) of the included authors had names that were female and female authors affiliated with HICs most commonly occupied first author positions (51.8%, n = 102). Conclusions: Authors in publications on decolonizing global health and global health partnerships have largely been comprised of individuals affiliated with HICs. There was a marked paucity of publications with authors affiliated with LMICs, whose voices provide context and crucial insight into the needs of the decolonizing global health movement.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes. RESULTS: Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

Patterns and Predictors of Timely Presentation and Outcomes of Polytrauma Patients Referred to the Emergency Department of a Tertiary Hospital in Tanzania.

Background: Polytrauma patients require special facilities to care for their injuries. In HICs, these patients are rapidly transferred from the scene or the first-health facility directly to a trauma center. However, in many LMICs, prehospital systems do not exist and there are long delays between arrivals at the first-health facility and the trauma center. We aimed to quantify the delay and determine the predictors of mortality among polytrauma patients. Methodology. We consecutively enrolled adult polytrauma patients (≥18 years) with ISS >15 referred to the Emergency Medicine Department of Muhimbili National Hospital, a major trauma center in Tanzania between August 2019 and January 2020. Based on a pilot study, the arrival of >6 hours after injury was considered a delay. The outcome of interest was factors associated with delayed presentation and the association of timeliness with 7-day mortality. Results: We enrolled 120 (4.5%) referred polytrauma adult patients. The median age was 30 years (IQR 25-39) and the ISS was 29 (IQR 24-34). The majority (85%) were males. While the median time from injury to first-health facility was 40 minutes (IQR 33-50), the median time from injury to arrival at EMD-MNH, was 377 minutes (IQR 314-469). Delayed presentation was noted in more than half (54.2%) of participants, with the odds of dying being 1.4 times higher in the delayed group (95% CI 0.3-5.6). Having a GCS <8 (AOR 16.3 (95% CI 3.1-86.3), hypoxia <92% (AOR 8.3 (95% CI 1.4-50.9), and hypotension <90 mmHg (R 7.3 (95% CI 1.6-33.6) were all independent predictors of mortality. Conclusion: The majority of polytrauma patients arrive at the tertiary facilities delayed for more than 6 hours and a distance of more than 8 km between facilities is associated with delay. Hypotension, hypoxia, and GCS of less than 8 are independent predictors of poor outcome. In the interim, there is a need to expedite the transfer of polytrauma patients to trauma care capable centers.

Predictors and outcome of cardiac arrest in paediatric patients presenting to emergency medicine department of tertiary hospitals in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: The survival of children who suffer cardiac arrest is poor. This study aimed to determine the predictors and outcome of cardiac arrest in paediatric patients presenting to an emergency department of a tertiary hospital in Tanzania. METHODOLOGY: This was a prospective cohort study of paediatric patients > 1 month to ≤ 14 years presenting to Emergency Medicine Department of Muhimbili National Hospital (EMD) in Tanzania from September 2019 to January 2020 and triaged as Emergency and Priority. We enrolled consecutive patients during study periods where patients' demographic and clinical presentation, emergency interventions and outcome were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the predictors of cardiac arrest. RESULTS: We enrolled 481 patients, 294 (61.1%) were males, and the median age was 2 years [IQR 1-5 years]. Among studied patients, 38 (7.9%) developed cardiac arrest in the EMD, of whom 84.2% were ≤ 5 years. Referred patients were over-represented among those who had an arrest (84.2%). The majority 33 (86.8%) of those who developed cardiac arrest died. Compromised circulation on primary survey (OR 5.9 (95% CI 2.1-16.6)), bradycardia for age on arrival (OR 20.0 (CI 1.6-249.3)), hyperkalemia (OR 8.2 (95% CI 1.4-47.7)), elevated lactate levels > 2 mmol/L (OR 5.2 (95% CI 1.4-19.7)), oxygen therapy requirement (OR 5.9 (95% CI 1.3-26.1)) and intubation within the EMD (OR 4.8 (95% CI 1.3-17.6)) were independent predictors of cardiac arrest. CONCLUSION: Thirty-eight children developed cardiac arrest in the EMD, with a very high mortality. Those who arrested were more likely to present with signs of hypoxia, shock and acidosis, which suggest they were at later stage in their illness. Outcomes can be improved by strengthening the pre-referral care and providing timely critical management to prevent cardiac arrest.

Predictors and outcome of time to presentation among critically ill paediatric patients at Emergency Department of Muhimbili National Hospital, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Mortality among under-five children in Tanzania remains high. While early presentation for treatment increases likelihood of survival, delays to care are common and factors causing delay to presentation among critically ill children are unknown. In this study delay was defined as presentation to the emergency department of tertially hospital i.e. Muhimbili National Hospital, more than 48 h from the onset of the index illness. METHODOLOGY: This was a prospective cohort study of critically ill children aged 28 days to 14 years attending emergency department at Muhimbili National Hospital in Tanzania from September 2019 to January 2020. We documented demographics, time to ED presentation, ED interventions and 30-day outcome. The primary outcome was the association of delay with mortality and secondary outcomes were predictors of delay among critically ill paediatric patients. Logistic regression and relative risk were calculated to measure the strength of the predictor and the relationship between delay and mortality respectively. RESULTS: We enrolled 440 (59.1%) critically ill children, their median age was 12 [IQR = 9-60] months and 63.9% were males. The median time to Emergency Department arrival was 3 days [IQR = 1-5] and more than half (56.6%) of critically ill children presented to Emergency Department in > 48 h whereby being an infant, self-referral and belonging to poor family were independent predictors of delay. Infants and those referred from other facilities had 2.4(95% CI 1.4-4.0) and 1.8(95% CI 1.1-2.8) times increased odds of presenting late to the Emergency Department respectively. The overall 30-day in-hospital mortality was 26.5% in which those who presented late were 1.3 more likely to die than those who presented early (RR = 1.3, CI: 0.9-1.9). Majority died > 24 h of Emergency Department arrival (P-value = 0.021). CONCLUSION: The risk of in-hospital mortality among children who presented to the ED later than 48 h after onset of illness was 1.3 times higher than for children who presented earlier than 48 h. It could be anywhere from 10% lower to 90% higher than the point estimate. However, the effect size was statistically not significant since the confidence interval included the null value Qualitative and time-motion studies are needed to evaluate the care pathway of critically ill pediatric patients to identify preventable delays in care.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.