Predicting COVID-19 cases using SARS-CoV-2 RNA in air, surface swab and wastewater samples.

Genomic footprints of pathogens shed by infected individuals can be traced in environmental samples, which can serve as a noninvasive method of infectious disease surveillance. The research evaluates the efficacy of environmental monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in air, surface swabs and wastewater to predict COVID-19 cases. Using a prospective experimental design, air, surface swabs, and wastewater samples were collected from a college dormitory housing roughly 500 students from March to May 2021 at the University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL. Students were randomly screened for COVID-19 during the study period. SARS-CoV-2 concentration in environmental samples was quantified using Volcano 2nd Generation-qPCR. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine the associations between time-lagged SARS-CoV-2 in environmental samples and COVID-19 cases. SARS-CoV-2 was detected in air, surface swab and wastewater samples on 52 (63.4 %), 40 (50.0 %) and 57 (68.6 %) days, respectively. On 19 (24 %) of 78 days SARS-CoV-2 was detected in all three sample types. COVID-19 cases were reported on 11 days during the study period and SARS-CoV-2 was also detected two days before the case diagnosis on all 11 (100 %), 9 (81.8 %) and 8 (72.7 %) days in air, surface swab and wastewater samples, respectively. SARS-CoV-2 detection in environmental samples was an indicator of the presence of local COVID-19 cases and a 3-day lead indicator for a potential outbreak at the dormitory building scale. Proactive environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 or other pathogens in multiple environmental media has potential to guide targeted measures to contain and/or mitigate infectious disease outbreaks within communities.

Association Between Child Access Prevention and State Firearm Laws With Pediatric Firearm-Related Deaths.

INTRODUCTION: We aim to study the association between state child access prevention (CAP) and overall firearm laws with pediatric firearm-related mortality. METHODS: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System was queried for pediatric (aged < 18 y) all-intent (accidental, suicide, and homicide) firearm-related crude death rates (CDRs) among the 50 states from 1999 to 2019. States were into three groups: Always CAP (throughout the 20-year period), Never CAP, and New CAP (enacted CAP during study period). We used the Giffords Law Center Annual Gun Law Scorecard (A, B, C, D, F) to group states into strict (A, B) and lenient (C, D, F) firearm laws. A scatter plot was constructed to display state CDR based on CAP laws by year. The top 10 states by CDR per year were tabulated based on CAP law status. Wilcoxon rank-sum was used to compare CDR between strict and lenient scorecard states in 2019. RESULTS: There were 12 Always CAP, 21 Never CAP, and 17 New CAP states from 1999 to 2019. No states changed from CAP laws to no CAP laws. Never CAP and New CAP states dominated the high outliers in CDR compared to Always CAP. The top 10 states with the highest CDR per year were most commonly Never CAP. Strict firearm laws states had lower median CDR in 2019 than lenient states (0.79 [0-1.67] versus 2.59 [1.66-3.53], P = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Stricter overall gun laws are associated with three-fold lower all-intent pediatric firearm-related deaths. For 2 decades, the 10 states with the highest CDR were almost universally those without CAP laws. Our findings support the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative's claims on the importance of CAP laws in reducing suicide, unintentional deaths, and violent crime among children, but more research is needed.

Using machine learning to understand microgeographic determinants of the Zika vector, Aedes aegypti.

There are limited data on why the 2016 Zika outbreak in Miami-Dade County, Florida was confined to certain neighborhoods. In this research, Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of Zika virus, are studied to examine neighborhood-level differences in their population dynamics and underlying processes. Weekly mosquito data were acquired from the Miami-Dade County Mosquito Control Division from 2016 to 2020 from 172 traps deployed around Miami-Dade County. Using random forest, a machine learning method, predictive models of spatiotemporal dynamics of Ae. aegypti in response to meteorological conditions and neighborhood-specific socio-demographic and physical characteristics, such as land-use and land-cover type and income level, were created. The study area was divided into two groups: areas affected by local transmission of Zika during the 2016 outbreak and unaffected areas. Ae. aegypti populations in areas affected by Zika were more strongly influenced by 14- and 21-day lagged weather conditions. In the unaffected areas, mosquito populations were more strongly influenced by land-use and day-of-collection weather conditions. There are neighborhood-scale differences in Ae. aegypti population dynamics. These differences in turn influence vector-borne disease diffusion in a region. These results have implications for vector control experts to lead neighborhood-specific vector control strategies and for epidemiologists to guide vector-borne disease risk preparations, especially for containing the spread of vector-borne disease in response to ongoing climate change.

Relationships between SARS-CoV-2 in Wastewater and COVID-19 Clinical Cases and Hospitalizations, with and without Normalization against Indicators of Human Waste.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in wastewater has been used to track community infections of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), providing critical information for public health interventions. Since levels in wastewater are dependent upon human inputs, we hypothesize that tracking infections can be improved by normalizing wastewater concentrations against indicators of human waste [Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV), ß-2 Microglobulin (B2M), and fecal coliform]. In this study, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 and indicators of human waste in wastewater from two sewersheds of different scales: a University campus and a wastewater treatment plant. Wastewater data were combined with complementary COVID-19 case tracking to evaluate the efficiency of wastewater surveillance for forecasting new COVID-19 cases and, for the larger scale, hospitalizations. Results show that the normalization of SARS-CoV-2 levels by PMMoV and B2M resulted in improved correlations with COVID-19 cases for campus data using volcano second generation (V2G)-qPCR chemistry (r s = 0.69 without normalization, r s = 0.73 with normalization). Mixed results were obtained for normalization by PMMoV for samples collected at the community scale. Overall benefits from normalizing with measures of human waste depend upon qPCR chemistry and improves with smaller sewershed scale. We recommend further studies that evaluate the efficacy of additional normalization targets.

A small cluster randomised clinical trial to improve health outcomes among Argentine patients disengaged from HIV care.

Background: Patients disengaged from HIV care, e.g., missed medication pick-ups, not attending physician visits, account for ≥70% of new HIV infections. Re-engaging and sustaining engagement is essential to controlling the HIV pandemic. This study tested a physician-delivered evidence-based intervention, Motivational Interviewing (MI), to improve health outcomes, adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV virologic suppression, CD4+ count, retention in HIV care, and self-efficacy among patients disengaged from care in Argentina. Methods: Regional clinics (n = 6) were randomised to condition, MI Intervention or Enhanced Standard of Care (ESOC), and recruited N = 360 patients disengaged from HIV care. ART adherence, HIV RNA viral load, CD4+ count retention, and self-efficacy were assessed at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24-months. Indirect effects from condition to main outcomes were examined using patient-provider relationship as a mediator. The study was a cluster-randomised clinical trial entitled Conexiones y Opciones Positivas en la Argentina 2 (COPA2) and was registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02846350. Findings: Participants were an average age of 39·15 (SD = 10·96), 51% were women; intervention participants were older (p = ·019), and more ESOC participants were women (60% vs. 42%, p = 0·001). Using mixed models, the intervention had no effect on ART adherence over time by condition on HIV RNA viral load, CD4+ count retention, or self-efficacy. However, analysing mediated paths, there was an indirect effect of condition on ART adherence (B = 0·188, p = 0·009), HIV viral load (B = -0·095, P = 0·027), and self-efficacy (B = 0·063, P = 0·001), suggesting the intervention was associated with improved patient-provider relationships, which was in turn associated with increased ART adherence, lower HIV viral load, and higher self-efficacy. Interpretation: These findings suggest that physician-delivered MI may enhance the patient-provider relationship, self-efficacy, and ART adherence, and reduced HIV viral load in patients disengaged from HIV care. However, these findings are preliminary due to the small number of clusters randomised, and replication is warranted. Funding: National Institutes of Health.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with menstrual irregularities among women of reproductive age.

BACKGROUND: Biological and psychological mechanisms may be responsible for menstrual irregularities occurring among women during the COVID-19 pandemic. STUDY DESIGN: From January 2019 to September 2021, women (18- to 45-years-old and not using hormonal contraception) were recruited in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Cross-sectional, self-report surveys collected data on menstrual irregularities, COVID-19 vaccination, stress, depression, and loneliness. A EUA approved rapid test assay using whole blood measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests described menstrual irregularities among women recruited before versus after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and with detectable versus undetectable SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. A logistic regression examined the relationship between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and menstrual irregularities controlling for age, stress, depression, and loneliness. RESULTS: Among 182 women enrolled, 73 were enrolled after pandemic onset, and 36 provided vaccination data. Having detectable SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies was associated with a higher percentage of menstrual irregularities among unvaccinated women (0% vs. 39%, p = .026) and among all women regardless of vaccination status (31% vs. 5%; p = .005). Adjusting for age and psychological variables, the odds of menstrual irregularities were 7.03 times (95% CI [1.39, 35.60]; p = .019) higher among women with detectable antibodies compared to women without detectable antibodies. Neither enrollment date, age, nor psychological factors were associated to menstrual irregularities. CONCLUSIONS: Biological mechanisms related to SARS-CoV-2 infection may be responsible for irregular menstruation and should be further examined to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women's health.

Complex And Simple Appendicitis: REstrictive or Liberal postoperative Antibiotic eXposure (CASA RELAX) using Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) and Response Adjusted for Duration of Antibiotic Risk (RADAR): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

Objectives: After appendectomy for simple or complicated appendicitis, the optimal duration of postoperative antibiotics (postop abx) is unclear and great practice variability exists. We propose to compare restrictive versus liberal postop abx using a hierarchical composite endpoint which includes patient-centered outcomes and accounts for duration of antibiotic exposure. Methods/Design: Participants with simple or complicated appendicitis undergoing appendectomy are randomly assigned to either restricted or liberal strategy. Eligible subjects declining randomization will be recruited to enroll in an observation only cohort. The primary endpoint is an ordinal scale of mutually exclusive clinical outcomes with within-category rankings determined by duration of antibiotic exposure. Subjects in both randomized and observation only cohorts will be analyzed as intention-to-treat, per-protocol, and as-treated. Exploratory Bayesian analyses will be performed. Conclusion: The complex and simple appendicitis: restrictive or liberal postoperative antibiotic exposure multicenter randomized controlled trial will enroll surgical appendectomy patients and seeks to analyze if a strategy of restricted (compared with liberal) postoperative antibiotics results in similar clinical outcomes with the benefit of reduced antibiotic exposure. Trial registration number: NCT05002829.

Combining Pentoxifylline With Vedolizumab for Crohn's Disease: Results of a Randomised, Placebo-controlled Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The efficacy of current biologics may be limited by targeting only one pathway. Pentoxifylline [PTX] interferes with tumour necrosis factor [TNF] gene expression. We performed a randomised, placebo-controlled pilot study to determine if PTX plus vedolizumab [VDZ] in patients with Crohn's disease [CD] is safe and improves response compared with VDZ monotherapy. METHODS: Thirty adult patients with active CD were randomised to VDZ/PTX or VDZ/placebo and followed for 24 weeks. Endoscopic activity and inflammatory cytokines were measured at baseline and Week 24. Descriptive statistics were used to determine estimates of effect. RESULTS: Demographics were similar but baseline disease activity was higher in the VDZ/PTX group. There was no difference in clinical remission at Week 14 (60.0% vs 66.67%, odds ratio [OR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16, 3.51) or steroid-free clinical remission at Week 24 in patients receiving VDZ/PTX. Improved clinical response was noted in the VDZ/PTX group at Weeks 6, 14, and 24 [Week 6: 20% vs 6.67%, Week 14: 26.67% vs 6.67%, Week 24: 40% vs 20%]. The rate of endoscopic remission was similar between the groups [40% vs 33.33%], with a greater mean decrease in Simple Endoscopic Score-CD [SES-CD] and C-reactive protein [CRP] with VDZ/PTX [SES-CD -3.17 vs -0.15, CRP -5.56 vs 0.46]. An increase in serum TNF-α concentration was observed with VDZ/placebo group; PTX mitigated this effect. No serious adverse events occurred. CONCLUSIONS: VDZ/PTX did not provide benefit over VDZ monotherapy in clinical or endoscopic remission but appeared to improve clinical response and was safe. These data should inform a fully powered study.

Frontal lobe position after single-layer cadaveric dermal matrix repair of large anterior skull base defects.

Objective: Endoscopic repair of large anterior skull base (ASB) defects has excellent results when using multilayered repairs with a nasoseptal flap. However, in extensive intranasal tumors, a nasoseptal flap may not always be available. One alternative option is a flexible single-layer ASB repair. Initial studies indicate low cerebrospinal fluid leak rates with a single-layer repair. However, the level of frontal lobe support, particularly the propensity for a significant inferior displacement of the frontal lobe, is not known. The goal of this study is to determine the frontal lobe position after single-layer acellular dermal allograft repair in large ASB defects. Study Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary care medical center. Subjects and Methods: This cohort study compares the frontal lobe position in adults who underwent endoscopic endonasal ASB tumor resection and single-layer cadaveric dermal matrix repair (ASB cohort) with control subjects without intracranial abnormalities (control cohort). The ASB cohort includes subjects with an ASB defect of ≥5 cm anterior/posterior and ≥1.5 cm wide and who had imaging at least 2 months after surgery. The frontal lobe position is measured on sagittal CT/MRI using a reference line from the base of the sella to the nasion. A value of zero indicates that the inferior-most aspect of the frontal lobe is at the level of the nasion-sellar line. A positive value indicates that the frontal lobe is inferior to the nasion-sellar line. The ASB cohort frontal lobe position is compared with the control cohort using the Mann-Whitney U test. A priori we set an absolute difference of 5 mm as a clinically significant difference. Results: The ASB cohort includes 47 subjects who are 57% male with an average age of 60 years (range: 31-89 years). The most common ASB pathology is esthesioneuroblastoma (n = 21) and 81% of the ASB cohort had postoperative radiation. The control cohort includes 20 subjects who are 60% male, with a mean age of 45 years (range: 19-74 years). The majority of controls underwent imaging for head trauma (n = 13). The ASB mean frontal lobe position is -0.2 mm superior to the nasion-sellar line (range: -9.2 to 10.4 mm), while the control's mean frontal lobe position is 1.1 mm inferior to the nasion-sellar line. This difference is not statistically significant (P = 0.13) and does not reach our a priori definition of clinical significance. The frontal lobe position of ASB subjects who had radiation is closer to the nasion-sellar line as compared with those who did not undergo radiation. Conclusions: Single-layer acellular dermal graft repair maintains frontal lobe support and position in large ASB defects.

A Syndemic Approach to Explore Factors Associated with Bacterial Vaginosis.

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is the most common genital infection in women and is associated with an increased risk of sexually transmitted infections and HIV. This study uses a syndemic approach to evaluate factors associated with BV. Non-pregnant, HIV-negative, sexually active, cis-gender women aged 18-45 years living in Miami, Florida were recruited from Nov.2018- Jun.2021. Participants completed a sociodemographic and behavioral questionnaire along with gynecological examinations. BV was diagnosed by Amsel criteria and confirmed by a Nugent score ≥ 4. A syndemic score was calculated as the sum of factors associated with BV. The association between syndemic score and BV was assessed using logistic regression. Of 166 women included, 60.2% had BV. Race, ethnicity, education, vaginal sex, recent cannabis use, and reasons for intravaginal practices were included in the syndemic score. Higher odds of BV were found in women with a score of ≥ 3 compared to women with a score of 0/1. A higher syndemic score was associated with increased odds of having BV. Multilevel interventions to decrease BV are needed to decrease women's risk of acquiring HIV.

RESUMEN: La vaginosis bacteriana (VB) es la infección genital más común en mujeres y está asociada con un mayor riesgo de enfermedades de transmisión sexual (ETS) y de VIH. Este estudio utilizó un enfoque sindémico para evaluar factores asociados con VB. Entre noviembre del 2018 y junio del 2021, se reclutaron mujeres cisgénero de entre 18­45 años, que no estuvieran embarazadas, que fueran VIH negativas y sexualmente activas, y que vivieran en Miami, Florida. Las participantes completaron un cuestionario sociodemográfico y de comportamiento junto con un examen ginecológico. Se diagnosticó VB empleando los criterios de Amsel y se confirmó empleando el criterio de Nugent con una puntuación ≥ 4. La puntuación sindémica fue calculada como la suma de factores asociados con VB utilizando. La asociación entre la puntuación sindémica con VB se evaluó mediate una regresión logística. De 166 mujeres incluidas, 60.2% fueron diagnosticadas con VB. Los factores incluidos en la puntuación sindémica fueron la raza, etnia, educación, sexo vaginal, consumo reciente de cannabis, y el uso de prácticas intravaginales. Se encontraron mayores probabilidades de VB en mujeres con una puntuación ≥ 3 en comparación con aquellas con una puntuación de 0/1. Una puntuación sindémica alta se asoció con una mayor probabilidad de tener VB. Son necesarias intervenciones multinivel para disminuir la VB y disminuir el riesgo de que las mujeres contraigan ETS y VIH.

Accurate long-term prediction of death for patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cirrhosis is a major cause of death and is associated with extensive health care use. Patients with cirrhosis have complex treatment choices due to risks of morbidity and mortality. To optimally counsel and treat patients with cirrhosis requires tools to predict their longer-term liver-related survival. We sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adults with cirrhosis with no major life-limiting comorbidities. Adults with cirrhosis within the Veterans Health Administration were used for model training and internal validation, and external validation used the OneFlorida Clinical Research Consortium. We used four model-building approaches including variables predictive of cirrhosis-related mortality, focused on discrimination at key time points (1, 3, 5, and 10 years). Among 30,263 patients with cirrhosis ≤75 years old without major life-limiting comorbidities and complete laboratory data during the baseline period, the boosted survival tree models had the highest discrimination, with 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival rates of 0.77, 0.81, 0.84, and 0.88, respectively. The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year discrimination was nearly identical in external validation. Secondary analyses with imputation of missing data and subgroups by etiology of liver disease had similar results to the primary model. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated (internally and externally) a risk score to predict longer-term survival of patients with cirrhosis. This score would transform management of patients with cirrhosis in terms of referral to specialty care and treatment decision-making for non-liver-related care.

A Longitudinal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Among People With HIV.

Background: The concentration and duration of antibodies (Ab) to SARS-CoV-2 infection predicts the severity of the disease and the clinical outcomes. Older people and those with HIV have impaired immune responses, worse outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection, and lower antibody responses after viral infection and vaccination. This study evaluated an Ab response to SARS-CoV-2 in people with HIV (PWH) and without HIV (HIV-) and its association with age. Methods: A total of 23 COVID+PWH and 21 COVID+HIV- participants were followed longitudinally for 6 months post-mild COVID-19. Immunoglobin G (IgG) and immunoglobin M (IgM) Ab responses were measured by an in-house developed ELISA. Time points and HIV status interaction were analyzed using Poisson generalized estimating equations, and correlations were analyzed using non-parametric tests. Results: Median age in PWH was 55 years with 28.6% women, while in the HIV- group was 36 years with 60.9% women. The mean time from COVID-19 diagnosis to study enrollment was 16 days for PWH and 11 days for HIV-. The mean CD4+ T-cell count/µl for PWH was 772.10 (±365.21). SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG were detected at all time points and Ab response levels did not differ by HIV status (p > 0.05). At entry, age showed a weak direct association with IgG responses (ρ = 0.44, p < 0.05) in HIV- but did not show any association in PWH. Similar associations between age, IgG, and HIV status emerged at day 14 (T1; ρ = 0.50, p < 0.05), 3 months (T3; ρ = 0.50, p < 0.05), and 6 months visit (T4; ρ = 0.78, p < 0.05) in the HIV- group. Conclusion: The Ab responses in the 6-month post-SARS-CoV-2 infection did not differ by HIV status, though a positive association was found between age and Ab response in older PWH. Results suggest that immune protection and vaccine responses are similar for PWH than for those without HIV infection.

COVID-19 Prediction using Genomic Footprint of SARS-CoV-2 in Air, Surface Swab and Wastewater Samples.

Importance: Genomic footprints of pathogens shed by infected individuals can be traced in environmental samples. Analysis of these samples can be employed for noninvasive surveillance of infectious diseases. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of environmental surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) for predicting COVID-19 cases in a college dormitory. Design: Using a prospective experimental design, air, surface swabs, and wastewater samples were collected from a college dormitory from March to May 2021. Students were randomly screened for COVID-19 during the study period. SARS-CoV-2 in environmental samples was concentrated with electronegative filtration and quantified using Volcano 2 nd Generation-qPCR. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine the associations between time-lagged SARS-CoV-2 in environmental samples and clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases. Setting: This study was conducted in a residential dormitory at the University of Miami, Coral Gables campus, FL, USA. The dormitory housed about 500 students. Participants: Students from the dormitory were randomly screened, for COVID-19 for 2-3 days / week while entering or exiting the dormitory. Main Outcome: Clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases were of our main interest. We hypothesized that SARS-CoV-2 detection in environmental samples was an indicator of the presence of local COVID-19 cases in the dormitory, and SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in the environmental samples several days prior to the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 cases. Results: SARS-CoV-2 genomic footprints were detected in air, surface swab and wastewater samples on 52 (63.4%), 40 (50.0%) and 57 (68.6%) days, respectively, during the study period. On 19 (24%) of 78 days SARS-CoV-2 was detected in all three sample types. Clinically diagnosed COVID-19 cases were reported on 11 days during the study period and SARS-CoV-2 was also detected two days before the case diagnosis on all 11 (100%), 9 (81.8%) and 8 (72.7%) days in air, surface swab and wastewater samples, respectively. Conclusion: Proactive environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 or other pathogens in a community/public setting has potential to guide targeted measures to contain and/or mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. Key Points: Question: How effective is environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in public places for early detection of COVID-19 cases in a community?Findings: All clinically confirmed COVID-19 cases were predicted with the aid of 2 day lagged SARS-CoV-2 in environmental samples in a college dormitory. However, the prediction efficiency varied by sample type: best prediction by air samples, followed by wastewater and surface swab samples. SARS-CoV-2 was also detected in these samples even on days without any reported cases of COVID-19, suggesting underreporting of COVID-19 cases.Meaning: SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in environmental samples several days prior to clinical reporting of COVID-19 cases. Thus, proactive environmental surveillance of microbiome in public places can serve as a mean for early detection of location-time specific outbreaks of infectious diseases. It can also be used for underreporting of infectious diseases.

Early hypermetabolism is uncommon in trauma intensive care unit patients.

BACKGROUND: Classic experiments demonstrating hypermetabolism after major trauma were performed in a different era of critical care. We aim to describe the modern posttraumatic metabolic response in the trauma intensive care unit (TICU). METHODS: This prospective observational study enrolled TICU mechanically ventilated adults (aged ≥18) from 3/2018-2/2019. Multiple, daily resting energy expenditure (REE) measurements were recorded. Basal energy expenditure (BEE) was calculated by the Harris-Benedict equation. Hypometabolism was defined as average daily REE < 0.85*BEE and hypermetabolism defined as average daily REE > 1.15*BEE. Demographics, interventions, and clinical outcomes were abstracted. Descriptive statistics and multivariable logistical regression models evaluating demographics with the outcome variable of hypermetabolism for the first 3 days ("sustained hypermetabolism") were performed, along with group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM). RESULTS: Fifty-five patients were analyzed: median age was 38 (28-56) years; 38 (69%) were male; body mass index (kg/m2 ) was 28 (26-32); and Injury Severity Score was 27 (19-34), with (38 [71%] blunt, 8 [15%] penetrating, 7 [13%] burn) injury mechanism. Overall, 19 (35%) had hypermetabolism on day 1 ("immediate hypermetabolism"), and 11 (21%) had sustained hypermetabolism for the first 3 days. Logistic regression analysis identified penetrating mechanism (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 16.4; 95% CI, 1.9-199.6; p = .015), burn mechanism (AOR, 11.1; 95% CI, 1.3-116.8; p =.029), and maximum temperature (AOR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-20.3; p= .041) as independent predictors of sustained hypermetabolism. GBTM identified 4 nutrition phenotypes, with 2 hyperconsumptive phenotypes associated with increased risk of malnutrition at discharge. CONCLUSION: Only a minority of injured patients is hypermetabolic in the first week after injury. Elevated temperature, penetrating mechanism, and burn mechanism are independently associated with sustained hypermetabolism. Hyperconsumptive phenotype patients are more likely to develop malnutrition during hospitalization.

Opiate vs non-opiate prescription medication for pain control after endoscopic sinus surgery for chronic rhinosinusitis.

PURPOSE: Research indicates that most providers give opiates after endoscopic sinonasal surgery. The effectiveness of non-opiate medications after sinonasal surgery is poorly understood and most studies do not assess medication failure. This study compares oral opiate, oral opiate and topical steroid, and oral non-opiate pain control. Patient call-backs are used as a proxy for pain medication failure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study compares three medication regiments after sinonasal surgery for 180 adults with chronic rhinosinusitis. Patients were instructed to take acetaminophen for mild pain. For moderate/severe pain, patients used: 1) oxycodone-acetaminophen, 2) oxycodone-acetaminophen + budesonide nasal rinses, or 3) meloxicam + acetaminophen. Patients were instructed to call clinic if pain was not controlled. Descriptive statistics compared cohorts. Chi-square tests compared call-backs between cohorts. Logistic regression adjusted for baseline differences in covariates, comorbidities, and operative sites. RESULTS: Cohorts had similar age, sex distribution, disease features, and extent of surgery. The meloxicam cohort had less subjects with pain disorders. The oxycodone cohort had less subjects with diabetes, septoplasty, and turbinate reduction. After adjusting for baseline differences and using oxycodone as the reference group (n = 50), the odds of calling clinic for poorly controlled pain was 0.18 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.05-0.6) in the meloxicam cohort (n = 45) and 0.19 (95% CI:0.07-0.5) in the oxycodone + budesonide rinses cohort (n = 85). CONCLUSION: In this study, both meloxicam and oxycodone + budesonide rinses were more effective at controlling pain after sinonasal surgery than oxycodone alone.

Increasing Rates of Pancreatic and Hepatocellular Cancers Parallel Increasing Obesity Rates.

OBJECTIVES: Gastrointestinal (GI) cancers are now the second leading cause of cancer death in the United States, and six are convincingly associated with obesity. We interrogate the association of a state's obesity prevalence with cancer incidence. METHODS: We use data from US Cancer Statistics for each of the 6 cancers of interest from 2011 to 2018. Age-adjusted incidences were calculated, and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was used to identify prevalence of obesity in each state. A generalized estimating equation model was used to relate the rate of cancer with the rate of obesity. RESULTS: Increased state-level prevalence of obesity was significantly associated with increasing state-level incidence of pancreatic and hepatocellular cancers. The rate of colorectal cancer was not associated with increasing obesity in 2011-2014 but from 2015 to 2018 was inversely associated with increasing rates of obesity. State-level prevalence of obesity was not associated with esophageal, gastric, or gallbladder cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Weight management interventions may reduce risk of pancreatic and hepatocellular cancers.

Eastern European and Asian-born populations are prone to gastric cancer: an epidemiologic analysis of foreign-born populations and gastric cancer.

BACKGROUND: The highest incidence of gastric cancer is in East Asia, corresponding to a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), yet other regions with a similarly high prevalence of H. pylori have lower cancer rates. Foreign-born persons who immigrate to the United States are thought to remain at high-risk for gastric cancer, but this has not been confirmed by large population-based studies. METHODS: We evaluated total and foreign-born populations in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Cardia and non-cardia gastric adenocarcinomas diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 were identified using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Generalized linear regression models determined whether the incidence of gastric cancer in each MSA was associated with specific foreign-born populations. RESULTS: Among 32 MSAs, we identified 55,937 patients with gastric adenocarcinoma. A greater percentage of Eastern European-born individuals in an MSA was associated with a higher incidence of cardia cancers (coefficient 1.32, P=0.02). Evaluating Asian-born populations alone, a greater percentage of Japanese-born individuals was associated with a higher incidence of non-cardia cancers (coefficient 2.48, P=0.03), whereas Korean or Chinese origin was not associated with a significantly higher risk. CONCLUSIONS: On a population level, a greater percentage of Eastern European-born individuals is associated with a higher incidence of cardia gastric adenocarcinomas. Among Asian-born individuals, Korean or Chinese origin was not associated with a significantly higher risk, but a greater percent of persons born in other Asian countries, including Japan, was associated with a higher incidence of non-cardia gastric adenocarcinomas in an MSA.

Lessons learned from SARS-CoV-2 measurements in wastewater.

Standardized protocols for wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) for the RNA of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the current COVID-19 pandemic, are being developed and refined worldwide for early detection of disease outbreaks. We report here on lessons learned from establishing a WBS program for SARS-CoV-2 integrated with a human surveillance program for COVID-19. We have established WBS at three campuses of a university, including student residential dormitories and a hospital that treats COVID-19 patients. Lessons learned from this WBS program address the variability of water quality, new detection technologies, the range of detectable viral loads in wastewater, and the predictive value of integrating environmental and human surveillance data. Data from our WBS program indicated that water quality was statistically different between sewer sampling sites, with more variability observed in wastewater coming from individual buildings compared to clusters of buildings. A new detection technology was developed based upon the use of a novel polymerase called V2G. Detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater varied from 102 to 106 genomic copies (gc) per liter of raw wastewater (L). Integration of environmental and human surveillance data indicate that WBS detection of 100 gc/L of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater was associated with a positivity rate of 4% as detected by human surveillance in the wastewater catchment area, though confidence intervals were wide (ß ~ 8.99 ∗ ln(100); 95% CI = 0.90-17.08; p < 0.05). Our data also suggest that early detection of COVID-19 surges based on correlations between viral load in wastewater and human disease incidence could benefit by increasing the wastewater sample collection frequency from weekly to daily. Coupling simpler and faster detection technology with more frequent sampling has the potential to improve the predictive potential of using WBS of SARS-CoV-2 for early detection of the onset of COVID-19.

Conditional uncertainty: Misinterpretations of "significant" p values.

Misapplication of p values can lead to very misleading conclusions. The frequent insignificance of a "significant" p value 1 provides examples illustrating situations where p values are misused in interpretation and describes alternatives to p values to consider. The concern about p values, and their potential shortcomings and misinterpretations, has been widely discussed and has received a lot of debate from the statistical community. While we agree with much of the content presented in the article, the issue fundamentally represents a misinterpretation of conditional probability, misapplication of measures regarding diagnostic accuracy, and consequently violations of assumptions inherent in experimental design and the validity of many approaches to statistical analysis and inference. One way this can be remedied is through team science, and collaboration between clinical and biostatistical scientists in research.