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1.
iScience ; 27(6): 109925, 2024 Jun 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38784011

RESUMO

The ecosystem services framework is essential for biodiversity conservation, emphasizing the role of nature in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study offers a global view on vulture-associated ecosystem services and their SDG contributions, based on insights from 206 experts. The findings reveal global consensus on the importance of vultures in regulation and maintenance services, such as waste recycling and disease control. Cultural services attributed to vultures are moderate and vary regionally. Provisioning services are consistently rated low across all regions. Experts' views on vultures' key ecosystem roles are often biased toward well-known services and may not align with all scientific evidence. The study emphasizes vultures' role in achieving SDGs, particularly impacting life on land and health, and calls for reevaluating their contribution to sustainable practices. It stresses the need to customize conservation to regional values and perceptions, recognizing vultures' critical role in ecological balance, public health, and sustainable development.

2.
Environ Monit Assess ; 196(3): 266, 2024 Feb 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38353774

RESUMO

The increasing impact of human activities on ecosystems is provoking a profound and dangerous effect, particularly in wildlife. Examining the historical migration patterns of quail (Coturnix coturnix) offers a compelling case study to demonstrate the repercussions of human actions on biodiversity. Urbanization trends, where people gravitate toward mega-urban areas, amplify this effect. The proliferation of artificial urban ecosystems extends its influence across every biome, as human reliance on infrastructure and food sources alters ecological dynamics extensively. We examine European quail migrations pre- and post-World War II and in the present day. Our study concentrates on the Italian peninsula, investigating the historical and contemporary recovery of ringed quail populations. To comprehend changes in quail migration, we utilize trajectory analysis, open statistical data, and linear generalized models. We found that while human population and economic growth have shown a linear increase, quail recovery rates exhibit a U-shaped trajectory, and cereal and legume production displays an inverse U-shaped pattern. Generalized linear models have unveiled the significant influence of several key factors-time periods, cereal and legume production, and human demographics-on quail recovery rates. These factors closely correlate with the levels of urbanization observed across these timeframes. These insights underscore the profound impact of expanding human populations and the rise of mega-urbanization on ecosystem dynamics and services. As our planet becomes more urbanized, the pressure on ecosystems intensifies, highlighting the urgent need for concerted efforts directed toward conserving and revitalizing ecosystem integrity. Simultaneously, manage the needs and demands of burgeoning mega-urban areas. Achieving this balance is pivotal to ensuring sustainable coexistence between urban improvement and the preservation of our natural environment.


Assuntos
Coturnix , Fabaceae , Humanos , Animais , Codorniz , Cidades , Ecossistema , Monitoramento Ambiental , Biodiversidade , Grão Comestível , Verduras
3.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 21936, 2023 12 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38081895

RESUMO

Pathogens affect wild bird populations worldwide, contributing to their decline. Considering the scarce health data regarding the endangered Pyrenean Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus aquitanicus), we molecularly surveyed selected pathogens (Newcastle disease virus, Avian influenza virus, Chlamydia psittaci, avian pathogenic Escherichia coli, Campylobacter jejuni, and Salmonella spp.) in 30 Pyrenean Capercaillie feces collected in the field (Catalonia, northeastern Spain). Additionally, swab and tissue samples from eight wild Pyrenean Capercaillies of Catalonia and Andorra were molecularly tested for herpesvirus and hemosporidians (Plasmodium spp., Haemoproteus spp., and Leucocytozoon spp.). All fecal samples were negative for the pathogens tested. Nevertheless, we detected a novel herpesvirus in 50% (4/8) of the Pyrenean Capercaillies, and hemosporidian DNA in 62.5% (5/8) of the tissue samples (i.e., Haemoproteus sp. [4 of 8] and/or Leucocytozoon sp. [3 of 8]). To our knowledge, this is the first detection of herpesvirus and hemosporidians infections in Pyrenean Capercaillies. The putative novel herpesvirus belongs to the genus Iltovirus. The presence of hemosporidian parasites in this mountain bird species is of concern, and could be related to the marked increase in the average temperature in the Pyrenees as a consequence of climate change. Our findings are fundamental to improve the conservation plans for the endangered Pyrenean Capercaillie population.


Assuntos
Haemosporida , Herpesviridae , Parasitos , Plasmodium , Animais , Codorniz , Animais Selvagens , Espanha
4.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 17090, 2023 10 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37816849

RESUMO

Neo-taphonomic studies have allowed us to detect bone damage patterns linked to carnivore preferences and behavioral traits as well as to improve our understanding of the origin of different alterations on vertebrate fossil faunas. However, taphonomically speaking vultures are among the least studied of all common, obligate scavengers. The research reported here contributes to characterise Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) behavior from a taphonomic perspective describing bone damage on 12 small-sized ungulate carcasses. The combination of observational data from photo/video-trap together with taphonomic analyses allowed us to manage factors like feeding behavior or time of consumption, as well as to accurately record bone modified items. Some bone-modifying effects are described here for the first time as vulture-made bone-damage distinctiveness. Still, some others may pose equifinality problems especially regarding small carnivores. This taphonomic conundrum leaves an interpretation problem particularly in archaeological sites in which those agents are present and consequently, an individualization dilemma about the taphonomic actors involved in bone modified assemblages.


Assuntos
Carnívoros , Falconiformes , Animais , Arqueologia , Aves , Comportamento Alimentar
5.
Animals (Basel) ; 13(15)2023 Jul 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37570218

RESUMO

Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain the function of cosmetic behaviour of bearded vultures, being the signalling individual dominance status the most accepted. However, no advances have been made in understanding this mysterious behaviour, in part due to the secrecy of this species. With the help of camera traps and GPS devices we monitored the use of a ferruginous spring in the Pyrenees (Spain) providing new insights into this aspect of their behavioural ecology. Most of the visits (93.5%) involved a single bearded vulture and bathing behaviour only occurred when a single individual was present, confirming their secretive behaviour. A total of 50% of individuals that visited the site were non-adults, suggesting that cosmetic coloration functions as an attenuating signal that may also benefit subordinate individuals. Future studies with the help of new technologies could help to disentangle some questions about the real function of cosmetic coloration and their social relevance.

6.
Sci Total Environ ; 893: 164913, 2023 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37327910

RESUMO

Public health risks are related to environmental management practices, and are essential to the understanding of ecosystem dynamics. The expansion of urbanized areas affects migratory bird networks and can impact the population sizes of migratory species and, in parallel, increase the risk of diseases carried by migratory species spreading into urban areas. Taking the European population of the common quail as a case study, we reconstructed its migratory network between Europe and the Maghreb using quail recoveries from the Italian Bird Ringing Scheme. We showed that soils at the central European migratory node have been degraded through urbanization and reforestation, decreasing the number of successful migrations over this area. Conceptual models incorporating the One Health approach, natural and social capital, landscape infrastructure, and ecosystem services could explain the relationships between climate warming and extensively developed, intensively developed, and urbanized ecosystems. Failed migratory flights of quail over central Europe highlight not only the problems of infrastructure design and their impact on ecosystems services, but also on One Health parameters. The damage to migratory network nodes presents a global threat to biodiversity and can increase the spread of diseases. To address this challenge we propose: i) improvements in land quality; ii) transboundary migration monitoring programmes; and iii) management plans for migratory birds - the overall aim being to optimize infrastructures to improve the quality of human life. Lessons drawn from a better understanding of the migratory networks of quail in relation to different ecosystems provide useful tools to improve infrastructure management and political decision making processes.


Assuntos
Técnicas Biossensoriais , Coturnix , Animais , Humanos , Ecossistema , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Codorniz
7.
Ecol Evol ; 13(2): e9817, 2023 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36789342

RESUMO

Quantifying space use and segregation, as well as the extrinsic and intrinsic factors affecting them, is crucial to increase our knowledge of species-specific movement ecology and to design effective management and conservation measures. This is particularly relevant in the case of species that are highly mobile and dependent on sparse and unpredictable trophic resources, such as vultures. Here, we used the GPS-tagged data of 127 adult Griffon Vultures Gyps fulvus captured at five different breeding regions in Spain to describe the movement patterns (home-range size and fidelity, and monthly cumulative distance). We also examined how individual sex, season, and breeding region determined the cumulative distance traveled and the size and overlap between consecutive monthly home-ranges. Overall, Griffon Vultures exhibited very large annual home-range sizes of 5027 ± 2123 km2, mean monthly cumulative distances of 1776 ± 1497 km, and showed a monthly home-range fidelity of 67.8 ± 25.5%. However, individuals from northern breeding regions showed smaller home-ranges and traveled shorter monthly distances than those from southern ones. In all cases, home-ranges were larger in spring and summer than in winter and autumn, which could be related to difference in flying conditions and food requirements associated with reproduction. Moreover, females showed larger home-ranges and less monthly fidelity than males, indicating that the latter tended to use the similar areas throughout the year. Overall, our results indicate that both extrinsic and intrinsic factors modulate the home-range of the Griffon Vulture and that spatial segregation depends on sex and season at the individual level, without relevant differences between breeding regions in individual site fidelity. These results have important implications for conservation, such as identifying key threat factors necessary to improve management actions and policy decisions.


Cuantificar el uso y la segregación del espacio, así como los factores extrínsecos e intrínsecos que los afectan, es crucial para aumentar nuestro conocimiento de la ecología de movimientos de cada especie y diseñar medidas eficaces de gestión y conservación. Esto es especialmente relevante en el caso de especies con gran movilidad y dependientes de recursos tróficos escasos e impredecibles, como son los buitres. En este trabajo se utilizaron datos GPS de 127 buitres leonados Gyps fulvus adultos capturados en cinco regiones de cría diferentes en España para describir los patrones de movimiento (tamaño y fidelidad del área de campeo y distancia acumulada mensual). También examinamos cómo el sexo, la estación del año y la región de cría determinaban la distancia acumulada recorrida y el tamaño y solapamiento entre áreas de campeo mensuales consecutivas. En conjunto, los buitres leonados mostraron un área de campeo anual muy extensa de 5027 ± 2123 km2, una distancia acumulada mensual media de 1776 ± 1497 km y una fidelidad mensual al área de campeo del 67.8 ± 25.5%. Sin embargo, los individuos de las regiones de cría más septentrionales mostraron áreas de campeo más pequeñas y recorrieron distancias mensuales más cortas que los de las más meridionales. En todos los casos, las áreas de campeo fueron mayores en primavera y verano que en otoño e invierno, lo que podría estar relacionado con las diferencias en las condiciones de vuelo y las necesidades tróficas asociadas a la reproducción. Además, las hembras mostraron mayores áreas de campeo y menor fidelidad mensual que los machos, lo que indica que estos últimos tienden a utilizar zonas similares durante todo el año. En conjunto, nuestros resultados indican que tanto los factores extrínsecos como los intrínsecos modulan el área de campeo del buitre leonado y que la segregación espacial depende del sexo y de la estación a nivel individual, sin que existan diferencias relevantes entre las regiones de cría en cuanto a la fidelidad individual al lugar. Estos resultados podrían tener importantes implicaciones para la conservación, como la identificación de los principales factores necesarios para mejorar las medidas de gestión y las decisiones políticas.

8.
Environ Pollut ; 315: 120385, 2022 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36257565

RESUMO

The widespread use of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) and their high persistence in animal tissues has led to these compounds becoming ubiquitous in rodent-predator-scavenger food webs. Exposure to SGARs has usually been investigated in wildlife species found dead, and despite growing evidence of the potential risk of secondary poisoning of predators and scavengers, the current worldwide exposure of free-living scavenging birds to SGARs remains scarcely investigated. We present the first active monitoring of blood SGAR concentrations and prevalence in the four European obligate (i.e., vultures) and facultative (red and black kites) avian scavengers in NE Spain. We analysed 261 free-living birds and detected SGARs in 39.1% (n = 102) of individuals. Both SGAR prevalence and concentrations (ΣSGARs) were related to the age and foraging behaviour of the species studied. Black kites showed the highest prevalence (100%), followed by red kites (66.7%), Egyptian (64.2%), bearded (20.9%), griffon (16.9%) and cinereous (6.3%) vultures. Overall, both the prevalence and average ΣSGARs were higher in non-nestlings than nestlings, and in species such as kites and Egyptian vultures foraging in anthropic landscapes (e.g., landfill sites and livestock farms) and exploiting small/medium-sized carrions. Brodifacoum was most prevalent (28.8%), followed by difenacoum (16.1%), flocoumafen (12.3%) and bromadiolone (7.3%). In SGAR-positive birds, the ΣSGAR (mean ± SE) was 7.52 ± 0.95 ng mL-1; the highest level detected being 53.50 ng mL-1. The most abundant diastereomer forms were trans-bromadiolone and flocoumafen, and cis-brodifacoum and difenacoum, showing that lower impact formulations could reduce secondary exposures of non-target species. Our findings suggest that SGARs can bioaccumulate in scavenging birds, showing the potential risk to avian scavenging guilds in Europe and elsewhere. We highlight the need for further studies on the potential adverse effects associated with concentrations of SGARSs in the blood to better interpret active monitoring studies of free-living birds.


Assuntos
Falconiformes , Rodenticidas , Animais , Anticoagulantes , Monitoramento Ambiental , Cadeia Alimentar , Peixes
10.
Animals (Basel) ; 12(14)2022 Jul 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35883318

RESUMO

Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking offers key information in the study of movement ecology of threatened species. Nevertheless, the placement of GPS devices requires animal capture and handling, which may represent a challenge to the individual's survival after release, mainly due to capture myopathy. The Pyrenean Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus aquitanicus) is a threatened galliform especially sensitive to handling, extremely elusive, and challenging to capture. Our goal was to adapt a sedation protocol for Pyrenean Capercaillies undergoing GPS tagging, in order to increase their welfare and safety during the procedure. From 2018 to 2021, 23 wild Pyrenean Capercaillies were captured and sedated for GPS tagging as part of a European conservation project of emblematic Pyrenean avian species. The birds received intramuscular (IM) sedation with midazolam (ranging from 1.9 mg/kg to 8.08 mg/kg) and were handled for 20 to 40 min. Sedation was reversed with flumazenil (0.1 mg/mL IM). The sedated capercaillies were less responsive to stimuli (i.e., closed eyes and recumbency), showing discrete to no response to handling (i.e., placement of the GPS device, physical examination, cloacal temperature measurement, or reflex tests). Such response was compared in birds with sedation doses above and below the average dose (5.17 mg/kg). Only one clinical sign showed statistically significant differences between the two groups ("open-mouth breathing" sign, p = 0.02). A mortality rate of 4.35% was registered (one individual died during handling). Sedation facilitated the handling of the birds and faster interventions in the field, without increasing mortality when compared to handling without sedation. Therefore, sedation was shown to be a useful tool to reduce stress related to capture and handling of the threatened Pyrenean Capercaillie.

11.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 4146, 2022 03 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35264681

RESUMO

In bi-parentally built nests, there is evidence to suggest that nests are extended phenotypic signals that accurately indicate the quality of the building parent/s. Raptors often use a variety of materials to build their nests (natural, such as branches, but also non-natural objects), presumably due to their insulating properties, their suitability to advertise occupancy of the nest, and to decrease pathogen and parasite loads. However, in raptors where both sexes collaborate in nest construction, it is unclear whether nest building (taking the amount of material carried to the nest as the potential predictor) is an indicator of parental quality, and whether the effort expended by both sexes could constitute an honest signal of parental quality to their partners. Between 2011 and 2016, we monitored 16 nests of Bonelli's Eagles (Aquila fasciata), and we examined data on sex, type of material brought to the nest, breeding experience, nest quality, timing, and nest-building investment prior to egg-laying from 32 identifiable Bonelli's Eagles during the pre-laying period to investigate the relative contribution of the sexes to the amount of nest material gathered. Our results indicate that sex is not a determining factor in nest-building effort, and that females did not increase their parental effort in response to the male's contribution, and supply of materials did not increase during the pre-laying period. In contrast, our models showed that: (1) the type of material supplied to the nest by both sexes varied significantly throughout the pre-laying period and (2) nest-building effort was determined by individual experience and nest quality. Therefore, our study suggests that male nest-building behaviour and investment by Bonelli's Eagles cannot be considered as an extended phenotypic signal. The differential use of hard and green material by both sexes in the early and late stages of nest-building period, and the fact that the more experienced individuals contributed a larger amount of material on low quality nests, are discussed in the contexts of signaling nest occupancy to conspecifics and competitors and the decrease of ectoparasite loads during the pre-laying period.


Assuntos
Águias , Aves Predatórias , Animais , Águias/fisiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Comportamento de Nidação
12.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 1): 150419, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34560450

RESUMO

Scavengers provide significant nature's contributions to people (NCP), including disease control through carcass removal, but their non-material NCP are rarely considered. For the first time, we assess the extent and value of the NCP provided by European avian scavengers through a scavenger-based tourism at Pyrenean supplementary feeding sites (SFS). Using a two-step cluster analysis, two different types of visitor were identified (specialist avian scavenger-watchers and generalist nature-lovers) at those SFS offering recreational experiences (n = 20, i.e. birdwatching, educational, or photographic activities). Most visitors (85%) perceived avian scavengers as beneficial NCP providers, associating this guild with non-material NCP (mostly supporting identities), followed by regulating and maintenance of options NCP (<1%). Our findings help to characterize the type of people who participate in scavenger related recreation and to identify and value their perceptions of avian scavengers. There has not been much previous research on positive human-wildlife interactions, even though ignoring people emotional bonds with nature can be perilous for biodiversity conservation.


Assuntos
Animais Selvagens , Turismo , Animais , Biodiversidade , Aves , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Peixes , Humanos
13.
Anim Cogn ; 25(3): 495-507, 2022 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34817739

RESUMO

Despite important recent advances in cognitive ecology, our current understanding of avian cognition still largely rests on research conducted on a few model taxa. Vultures are an ecologically distinctive group of species by being the only obligate carrion consumers across terrestrial vertebrates. Their unique scavenging lifestyle suggests they have been subject to particular selective pressures to locate scarce, unpredictable, ephemeral, and nutritionally challenging food. However, substantial variation exists among species in diet, foraging techniques and social structure of populations. Here, we provide an overview of the current knowledge on vulture cognition through a comprehensive literature review and a compilation of our own observations. We find evidence for a variety of innovative foraging behaviors, scrounging tactics, collective problem-solving abilities and tool-use, skills that are considered indicative of enhanced cognition and that bear clear connections with the eco-social lifestyles of species. However, we also find that the cognitive basis of these skills remain insufficiently studied, and identify new research areas that require further attention in the future. Despite these knowledge gaps and the challenges of working with such large animals, we conclude that vultures may provide fresh insight into our knowledge of the ecology and evolution of cognition.


Assuntos
Falconiformes , Animais , Aves , Cognição , Ecologia , Resolução de Problemas
14.
Sci Total Environ ; 808: 152173, 2022 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34875331

RESUMO

The increase of urban expansion, whereby soils become altered or filled with buildings through human action, presents a global threat to biodiversity and the spread of disease. Many of the factors determining bird migration routes and disease spread are poorly understood. We studied the migration routes of common quail Coturnix coturnix in western Europe. We examined the recoveries of ringed birds to characterize their migration trajectories to understand how this nocturnal migrant crosses artificial areas and predict the risk of migration collapse and disease transmission. We evaluated the possible consequences of quail collisions with human infrastructure elements (i.e., buildings, cranes, overhead cables and wires, and wind farm structures) to assess disease transmission in relation to the amount of urban soil. Our results show that variations in the amount of artificialized soil in central Europe are correlated with the relative absence of quail migratory routes. Conceptual models incorporating environmental ecology showed the relationships between climate warming, agroecosystems, and urban ecosystems as well as human health and economic growth. We predict a drastic loss of biodiversity and spread of disease if we do not curb the spread of land consumption. Taking a broad view of the interrelations discussed here allows predictions of global vulnerability and increased risks to health due to losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Lessons drawn from migration route maps of quail in relation to the distribution of urbanized soils provide tools for global conservation political decision making.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , Efeitos Antropogênicos , Coturnix , Ecossistema , Animais , Europa (Continente)
15.
Ecology ; 102(12): e03519, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34449876

RESUMO

Species assemblages often have a non-random nested organization, which in vertebrate scavenger (carrion-consuming) assemblages is thought to be driven by facilitation in competitive environments. However, not all scavenger species play the same role in maintaining assemblage structure, as some species are obligate scavengers (i.e., vultures) and others are facultative, scavenging opportunistically. We used a database with 177 vertebrate scavenger species from 53 assemblages in 22 countries across five continents to identify which functional traits of scavenger species are key to maintaining the scavenging network structure. We used network analyses to relate ten traits hypothesized to affect assemblage structure with the "role" of each species in the scavenging assemblage in which it appeared. We characterized the role of a species in terms of both the proportion of monitored carcasses on which that species scavenged, or scavenging breadth (i.e., the species "normalized degree"), and the role of that species in the nested structure of the assemblage (i.e., the species "paired nested degree"), therefore identifying possible facilitative interactions among species. We found that species with high olfactory acuity, social foragers, and obligate scavengers had the widest scavenging breadth. We also found that social foragers had a large paired nested degree in scavenger assemblages, probably because their presence is easier to detect by other species to signal carcass occurrence. Our study highlights differences in the functional roles of scavenger species and can be used to identify key species for targeted conservation to maintain the ecological function of scavenger assemblages.


Assuntos
Falconiformes , Cadeia Alimentar , Animais , Peixes , Fenótipo , Vertebrados
16.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 14148, 2021 07 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34239020

RESUMO

In reintroduction projects, an analysis of dispersal, exploratory movements and territorial behavior of the species concerned offers valuable information on the adaptive management of threatened species and provides a basis for the management of future reintroductions. This is the case of the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) an endemic and endangered species reintroduced in Extremadura (Spain) in 2014. We analysed spatial data from 32 individuals just after their reintroduction. Our findings show exploratory movements sufficient to colonise and connect population nuclei within a radius of about 50 km of the reintroduction area. No significant differences were found in the exploratory movements capacity or in any directionality of males and females. Our results showed an effect of sex on the sizes of the territories established, as well as an inverse relationship between them and the time elapsed since release. No effects of rabbit abundance and lynx density on the size of territories are occurring during the early stages of reintroduction. On average, the territories of reintroduced individuals were less stable than those previously described in natural populations. Findings indicate that the reintroduced population has successfully been established but it takes more than 5 years to stabilize the territories in the area. Exploratory movements of reintroduced lynx can be large and in any direction, even when there is still a lot of high quality habitat available, which should be taken into account when reintroducing species, especially terrestrial carnivores.


Assuntos
Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Ecossistema , Espécies em Perigo de Extinção , Lynx/fisiologia , Animais , Feminino , Masculino , Espanha , Territorialidade
17.
Sci Total Environ ; 789: 147816, 2021 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34052482

RESUMO

A new bioinspired computational model was developed for the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic using the available epidemiological information, high-resolution population density data, travel patterns, and the average number of contacts between people. The effectiveness of control measures such as contact reduction measures, closure of communities (lockdown), protective measures (social distancing, face mask wearing, and hand hygiene), and vaccination were modelled to examine possibilities for control of the disease under several protective vaccination levels in the population. Lockdown and contact reduction measures only delay the spread of the virus in the population because it resumes its previous dynamics as soon as the restrictions are lifted. Nevertheless, these measures are probably useful to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed in the short term. Our model predicted that 56% of the Spanish population would have been infected and subsequently recovered over a 130 day period if no protective measures were taken but this percentage would have been only 34% if protective measures had been put in place. Moreover, this percentage would have been further reduced to 41.7, 27.7, and 13.3% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated, respectively. Finally, this percentage would have been even lower at 25.5, 12.1 and 7.9% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with the application of protective measures, respectively. Therefore, a combination of protective measures and vaccination would be highly efficacious in decreasing not only the number of those who become infected and subsequently recover, but also the number of people who die from infection, which falls from 0.41% of the population over a 130 day period without protective measures to 0.15, 0.08 and 0.06% if 25, 50 and 75% of the population had been vaccinated in combination with protective measures at the same time, respectively.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 9(4)2021 Apr 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33920027

RESUMO

We developed an agent-based stochastic model, based on P Systems methodology, to decipher the effects of vaccination and contact tracing on the control of COVID-19 outbreak at population level under different control measures (social distancing, mask wearing and hand hygiene) and epidemiological scenarios. Our findings suggest that without the application of protection social measures, 56.1% of the Spanish population would contract the disease with a mortality of 0.4%. Assuming that 20% of the population was protected by vaccination by the end of the summer of 2021, it would be expected that 45% of the population would contract the disease and 0.3% of the population would die. However, both of these percentages are significantly lower when social measures were adopted, being the best results when social measures are in place and 40% of contacts traced. Our model shows that if 40% of the population can be vaccinated, even without social control measures, the percentage of people who die or recover from infection would fall from 0.41% and 56.1% to 0.16% and 33.5%, respectively compared with an unvaccinated population. When social control measures were applied in concert with vaccination the percentage of people who die or recover from infection diminishes until 0.10% and 14.5%, after vaccinating 40% of the population. Vaccination alone can be crucial in controlling this disease, but it is necessary to vaccinate a significant part of the population and to back this up with social control measures.

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