Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Persistence of Ebola virus after the end of widespread transmission in Liberia: an outbreak report.

BACKGROUND: Outbreak response efforts for the 2014-15 Ebola virus disease epidemic in west Africa brought widespread transmission to an end. However, subsequent clusters of infection have occurred in the region. An Ebola virus disease cluster in Liberia in November, 2015, that was identified after a 15-year-old boy tested positive for Ebola virus infection in Monrovia, raised the possibility of transmission from a persistently infected individual. METHODS: Case investigations were done to ascertain previous contact with cases of Ebola virus disease or infection with Ebola virus. Molecular investigations on blood samples explored a potential linkage between Ebola virus isolated from cases in this November, 2015, cluster and epidemiologically linked cases from the 2014-15 west African outbreak, according to the national case database. FINDINGS: The cluster investigated was the family of the index case (mother, father, three siblings). Ebola virus genomes assembled from two cases in the November, 2015, cluster, and an epidemiologically linked Ebola virus disease case in July, 2014, were phylogenetically related within the LB5 sublineage that circulated in Liberia starting around August, 2014. Partial genomes from two additional individuals, one from each cluster, were also consistent with placement in the LB5 sublineage. Sequencing data indicate infection with a lineage of the virus from a former transmission chain in the country. Based on serology and epidemiological and genomic data, the most plausible scenario is that a female case in the November, 2015, cluster survived Ebola virus disease in 2014, had viral persistence or recurrent disease, and transmitted the virus to three family members a year later. INTERPRETATION: Investigation of the source of infection for the November, 2015, cluster provides evidence of Ebola virus persistence and highlights the risk for outbreaks after interruption of active transmission. These findings underscore the need for focused prevention efforts among survivors and sustained capacity to rapidly detect and respond to new Ebola virus disease cases to prevent recurrence of a widespread outbreak. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and WHO.

Molecular Evidence of Sexual Transmission of Ebola Virus.

A suspected case of sexual transmission from a male survivor of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to his female partner (the patient in this report) occurred in Liberia in March 2015. Ebola virus (EBOV) genomes assembled from blood samples from the patient and a semen sample from the survivor were consistent with direct transmission. The genomes shared three substitutions that were absent from all other Western African EBOV sequences and that were distinct from the last documented transmission chain in Liberia before this case. Combined with epidemiologic data, the genomic analysis provides evidence of sexual transmission of EBOV and evidence of the persistence of infective EBOV in semen for 179 days or more after the onset of EVD. (Funded by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency and others.).

Possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus - Liberia, 2015.

On March 20, 2015, 30 days after the most recent confirmed Ebola Virus Disease (Ebola) patient in Liberia was isolated, Ebola was laboratory confirmed in a woman in Monrovia. The investigation identified only one epidemiologic link to Ebola: unprotected vaginal intercourse with a survivor. Published reports from previous outbreaks have demonstrated Ebola survivors can continue to harbor virus in immunologically privileged sites for a period of time after convalescence. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen as long as 82 days after symptom onset and viral RNA has been detected in semen up to 101 days after symptom onset. One instance of possible sexual transmission of Ebola has been reported, although the accompanying evidence was inconclusive. In addition, possible sexual transmission of Marburg virus, a filovirus related to Ebola, was documented in 1968. This report describes the investigation by the Government of Liberia and international response partners of the source of Liberia's latest Ebola case and discusses the public health implications of possible sexual transmission of Ebola virus. Based on information gathered in this investigation, CDC now recommends that contact with semen from male Ebola survivors be avoided until more information regarding the duration and infectiousness of viral shedding in body fluids is known. If male survivors have sex (oral, vaginal, or anal), a condom should be used correctly and consistently every time.

Eps homology domain endosomal transport proteins differentially localize to the neuromuscular junction.

BACKGROUND: Recycling of endosomes is important for trafficking and maintenance of proteins at the neuromuscular junction (NMJ). We have previously shown high expression of the endocytic recycling regulator Eps15 homology domain-containing (EHD)1 proteinin the Torpedo californica electric organ, a model tissue for investigating a cholinergic synapse. In this study, we investigated the localization of EHD1 and its paralogs EHD2, EHD3, and EHD4 in mouse skeletal muscle, and assessed the morphological changes in EHD1-/- NMJs. METHODS: Localization of the candidate NMJ protein EHD1 was assessed by confocal microscopy analysis of whole-mount mouse skeletal muscle fibers after direct gene transfer and immunolabeling. The potential function of EHD1 was assessed by specific force measurement and α-bungarotoxin-based endplate morphology mapping in EHD1-/- mouse skeletal muscle. RESULTS: Endogenous EHD1 localized to primary synaptic clefts of murine NMJ, and this localization was confirmed by expression of recombinant green fluorescent protein labeled-EHD1 in murine skeletal muscle in vivo. EHD1-/- mouse skeletal muscle had normal histology and NMJ morphology, and normal specific force generation during muscle contraction. The EHD 1-4 proteins showed differential localization in skeletal muscle: EHD2 to muscle vasculature, EHD3 to perisynaptic regions, and EHD4 to perinuclear regions and to primary synaptic clefts, but at lower levels than EHD1. Additionally, specific antibodies raised against mammalian EHD1-4 recognized proteins of the expected mass in the T. californica electric organ. Finally, we found that EHD4 expression was more abundant in EHD1-/- mouse skeletal muscle than in wild-type skeletal muscle. CONCLUSION: EHD1 and EHD4 localize to the primary synaptic clefts of the NMJ. Lack of obvious defects in NMJ structure and muscle function in EHD1-/- muscle may be due to functional compensation by other EHD paralogs.

Integrated genomics and proteomics of the Torpedo californica electric organ: concordance with the mammalian neuromuscular junction.

BACKGROUND: During development, the branchial mesoderm of Torpedo californica transdifferentiates into an electric organ capable of generating high voltage discharges to stun fish. The organ contains a high density of cholinergic synapses and has served as a biochemical model for the membrane specialization of myofibers, the neuromuscular junction (NMJ). We studied the genome and proteome of the electric organ to gain insight into its composition, to determine if there is concordance with skeletal muscle and the NMJ, and to identify novel synaptic proteins. RESULTS: Of 435 proteins identified, 300 mapped to Torpedo cDNA sequences with ≥2 peptides. We identified 14 uncharacterized proteins in the electric organ that are known to play a role in acetylcholine receptor clustering or signal transduction. In addition, two human open reading frames, C1orf123 and C6orf130, showed high sequence similarity to electric organ proteins. Our profile lists several proteins that are highly expressed in skeletal muscle or are muscle specific. Synaptic proteins such as acetylcholinesterase, acetylcholine receptor subunits, and rapsyn were present in the electric organ proteome but absent in the skeletal muscle proteome. CONCLUSIONS: Our integrated genomic and proteomic analysis supports research describing a muscle-like profile of the organ. We show that it is a repository of NMJ proteins but we present limitations on its use as a comprehensive model of the NMJ. Finally, we identified several proteins that may become candidates for signaling proteins not previously characterized as components of the NMJ.

Characterization of the ZBTB42 gene in humans and mice.

A 12 kb haplotype upstream of the key signaling protein gene, AKT1, has been associated with insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome (Devaney et al. 2010). The region contains the first exon and promoter sequences of AKT1, but also includes the complete transcript unit for a highly conserved yet uncharacterized zinc finger-containing protein (ZBTB42). One of the component SNPs of the 12 kb haplotype metabolic syndrome haplotype changes a conserved amino acid in the predicted ZBTB42 protein, increasing the potential significance of the ZBTB42 transcript unit for contributing to disease risk. Using RT-PCR of human and mouse cells, we verified that the two exon ZBTB42 was expressed and correctly spliced in human skeletal muscle, and murine C2C12 cells. Production of peptide antibodies showed the expected protein in human (47 kD) and mouse (49 kD) immunoblots, and murine tissue distribution showed strongest expression in muscle and ovary. Immunostaining showed nuclear localization of the ZBTB42 protein in human muscle. Confocal imaging analyses of murine muscle showed ZBTB42 distributed in the nucleoplasm, with particular enrichment in nuclei underlying the neuromuscular junctions. The genetic association data of metabolic syndrome, coupled with the molecular characterization of the ZBTB42 transcript unit and encoded protein presented here, suggests that ZBTB42 may be involved in metabolic syndrome phenotypes.