Broken Windows, Informal Social Control, and Crime: Assessing Causality in Empirical Studies.

An important criminological controversy concerns the proper causal relationships between disorder, informal social control, and crime. The broken windows thesis posits that neighborhood disorder increases crime directly and indirectly by undermining neighborhood informal social control. Theories of collective efficacy argue that the association between neighborhood disorder and crime is spurious because of the confounding variable informal social control. We review the recent empirical research on this question, which uses disparate methods, including field experiments and different models for observational data. To evaluate the causal claims made in these studies, we use a potential outcomes framework of causality. We conclude that, although there is some evidence for both broken windows and informal control theories, there is little consensus in the present research literature. Furthermore, at present, most studies do not establish causality in a strong way.

Prior Arrest, Substance Use, Mental Disorder, and Intent-Specific Firearm Injury.

INTRODUCTION: Substance use, mental disorders, and arrest are markers of increased firearm injury risk. It is unclear how these markers vary by intent. Examining these interrelated factors together can clarify their associations with assault-related, self-inflicted, unintentional, and legal intervention firearm injuries, informing intent-specific interventions. METHODS: In 2017-2018, 2-year diagnosis and arrest histories of intent-specific firearm injury cases were compared with those of unintentionally injured motor vehicle collision passenger controls. Fatal and nonfatal firearm and motor vehicle collision injury records in Seattle (2010-2014) were linked to statewide hospitalization and arrest records. Multinomial logistic regression models compared odds of prior arrest, substance use, and mental disorder diagnoses among intent-specific firearm injury cases relative to controls, adjusting for age, race, and gender. RESULTS: A total of 763 cases and 335 controls were identified. Unintentional and self-inflicted cases did not differ significantly from controls in arrest history. Legal intervention cases resembled assault-related cases in their arrest history, and self-inflicted cases in their hospitalization history. The legal intervention cases were more likely than controls to have a prior felony arrest (OR=7.72, 95% CI=2.63, 20.97), and diagnoses involving alcohol (OR=4.06, 95% CI=1.04, 15.84); cannabis (OR=11.00, 95% CI=1.01, 119.36); depression/anxiety (OR=7.22, 95% CI=1.89, 27.67); psychosis (OR=6.99, 95% CI=1.35, 36.24); or conduct disorder (OR=22.01, 95% CI=1.44, 335.93). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with intent-specific firearm injuries have distinct patterns of prior substance use, mental disorder, and arrest. Many injuries occur after a series of encounters with institutions meant to help individuals during crises that can fail to provide longer-term solutions.

Associations between neighbourhood characteristics and depression: a twin study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is an important contributor to the global burden of disease. Besides several known individual-level factors that contribute to depression, there is a growing recognition that neighbourhood environment can also profoundly affect mental health. This study assessed associations between three neighbourhood constructs-socioeconomic deprivation, residential instability and income inequality-and depression among adult twin pairs. The twin design is used to examine the association between neighbourhood constructs and depression, controlling for selection factors (ie, genetic and shared environmental factors) that have confounded purported associations. METHODS: We used multilevel random-intercept Poisson regression among 3738 same-sex twin pairs from a community-based twin registry to examine the association between neighbourhood constructs and depression. The within-pair association controls for confounding by genetic and environmental factors shared between twins within a pair, and is the main parameter of interest. Models were adjusted for individual-level income, education and marital status, and further by neighbourhood-level population density. RESULTS: When twins were analysed as individuals (phenotypic model), all neighbourhood constructs were significantly associated with depression. However, only neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation showed a significant within-pair association with depression. A 10-unit within-pair difference in neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation was associated with 6% greater depressive symptoms (1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11); the association did not substantially change in adjusted models. CONCLUSION: This study provides new evidence linking neighbourhood socioeconomic deprivation with greater depression. Future studies should employ longitudinal designs to better test social causation versus social selection.

Modeling Criminal Careers as Departures from a Unimodal Population Age-Crime Curve: The Case of Marijuana Use.

A major aim of longitudinal analyses of life course data is to describe the within- and between-individual variability in a behavioral outcome, such as crime. Statistical analyses of such data typically draw on mixture and mixed-effects growth models. In this work, we present a functional analytic point of view and develop an alternative method that models individual crime trajectories as departures from a population age-crime curve. Drawing on empirical and theoretical claims in criminology, we assume a unimodal population age-crime curve and allow individual expected crime trajectories to differ by their levels of offending and patterns of temporal misalignment. We extend Bayesian hierarchical curve registration methods to accommodate count data and to incorporate influence of baseline covariates on individual behavioral trajectories. Analyzing self-reported counts of yearly marijuana use from the Denver Youth Survey, we examine the influence of race and gender categories on differences in levels and timing of marijuana smoking. We find that our approach offers a flexible model for longitudinal crime trajectories and allows for a rich array of inferences of interest to criminologists and drug abuse researchers.