What is winter? Modeling spatial variation in bat host traits and hibernation and their implications for overwintering energetics.

White-nose syndrome (WNS) has decimated hibernating bat populations across eastern and central North America for over a decade. Disease severity is driven by the interaction between bat characteristics, the cold-loving fungal agent, and the hibernation environment. While we further improve hibernation energetics models, we have yet to examine how spatial heterogeneity in host traits is linked to survival in this disease system. Here, we develop predictive spatial models of body mass for the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus) and reassess previous definitions of the duration of hibernation of this species. Using data from published literature, public databases, local experts, and our own fieldwork, we fit a series of generalized linear models with hypothesized abiotic drivers to create distribution-wide predictions of prehibernation body fat and hibernation duration. Our results provide improved estimations of hibernation duration and identify a scaling relationship between body mass and body fat; this relationship allows for the first continuous estimates of prehibernation body mass and fat across the species' distribution. We used these results to inform a hibernation energetic model to create spatially varying fat use estimates for M. lucifugus. These results predict WNS mortality of M. lucifugus populations in western North America may be comparable to the substantial die-off observed in eastern and central populations.

Circuit-theory applications to connectivity science and conservation.

Conservation practitioners have long recognized ecological connectivity as a global priority for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. In the early years of conservation science, ecologists extended principles of island biogeography to assess connectivity based on source patch proximity and other metrics derived from binary maps of habitat. From 2006 to 2008, the late Brad McRae introduced circuit theory as an alternative approach to model gene flow and the dispersal or movement routes of organisms. He posited concepts and metrics from electrical circuit theory as a robust way to quantify movement across multiple possible paths in a landscape, not just a single least-cost path or corridor. Circuit theory offers many theoretical, conceptual, and practical linkages to conservation science. We reviewed 459 recent studies citing circuit theory or the open-source software Circuitscape. We focused on applications of circuit theory to the science and practice of connectivity conservation, including topics in landscape and population genetics, movement and dispersal paths of organisms, anthropogenic barriers to connectivity, fire behavior, water flow, and ecosystem services. Circuit theory is likely to have an effect on conservation science and practitioners through improved insights into landscape dynamics, animal movement, and habitat-use studies and through the development of new software tools for data analysis and visualization. The influence of circuit theory on conservation comes from the theoretical basis and elegance of the approach and the powerful collaborations and active user community that have emerged. Circuit theory provides a springboard for ecological understanding and will remain an important conservation tool for researchers and practitioners around the globe.

Aplicaciones de la Teoría de Circuitos a la Conservación y a la Ciencia de la Conectividad Resumen Quienes practican la conservación han reconocido durante mucho tiempo que la conectividad ecológica es una prioridad mundial para la preservación de la biodiversidad y el funcionamiento del ecosistema. Durante los primeros años de la ciencia de la conservación los ecólogos difundieron los principios de la biografía de islas para evaluar la conectividad con base en la proximidad entre el origen y el fragmento, así como otras medidas derivadas de los mapas binarios de los hábitats. Entre 2006 y 2008 el fallecido Brad McRae introdujo la teoría de circuitos como una estrategia alternativa para modelar el flujo génico y la dispersión o las rutas de movimiento de los organismos. McRae propuso conceptos y medidas de la teoría de circuitos eléctricos como una manera robusta para cuantificar el movimiento a lo largo de múltiples caminos posibles en un paisaje, no solamente a lo largo de un camino o corredor de menor costo. La teoría de circuitos ofrece muchos enlaces teóricos, conceptuales y prácticos con la ciencia de la conservación. Revisamos 459 estudios recientes que citan la teoría de circuitos o el software de fuente abierta Circuitscape. Nos enfocamos en las aplicaciones de la teoría de circuitos a la ciencia y a la práctica de la conservación de la conectividad, incluyendo temas como la genética poblacional y del paisaje, movimiento y caminos de dispersión de los organismos, barreras antropogénicas de la conectividad, comportamiento ante incendios, flujo del agua, y servicios ambientales. La teoría de circuitos probablemente tenga un efecto sobre la ciencia de la conservación y quienes la practican por medio de una percepción mejorada de las dinámicas del paisaje, el movimiento animal, y los estudios de uso de hábitat, y por medio del desarrollo de nuevas herramientas de software para el análisis de datos y su visualización. La influencia de la teoría de circuitos sobre la conservación viene de la base teórica y la elegancia de la estrategia y de las colaboraciones fuertes y la comunidad activa de usuarios que han surgido recientemente. La teoría de circuitos proporciona un trampolín para el entendimiento ecológico y seguirá siendo una importante herramienta de conservación para los investigadores y practicantes en todo el mundo.

Publisher Correction: A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has been fixed in the paper.

A globally-distributed alien invasive species poses risks to United States imperiled species.

In the midst of Earth's sixth mass extinction event, non-native species are a driving factor in many imperiled species' declines. One of the most widespread and destructive alien invasive species in the world, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) threaten native species through predation, habitat destruction, competition, and disease transmission. We show that wild pigs co-occur with up to 87.2% of imperiled species in the contiguous U.S. identified as susceptible to their direct impacts, and we project increases in both the number of species at risk and the geographic extent of risks by 2025. Wild pigs may therefore present a severe threat to U.S. imperiled species, with serious implications for management of at-risk species throughout wild pigs' global distribution. We offer guidance for efficient allocation of research effort and conservation resources across species and regions using a simple approach that can be applied to wild pigs and other alien invasive species globally.

Modeling connectivity to identify current and future anthropogenic barriers to movement of large carnivores: A case study in the American Southwest.

This study sought to identify critical areas for puma (Puma concolor) movement across the state of Arizona in the American Southwest and to identify those most likely to be impacted by current and future human land uses, particularly expanding urban development and associated increases in traffic volume. Human populations in this region are expanding rapidly, with the potential for urban centers and busy roads to increasingly act as barriers to demographic and genetic connectivity of large-bodied, wide-ranging carnivores such as pumas, whose long-distance movements are likely to bring them into contact with human land uses and whose low tolerance both for and from humans may put them at risk unless opportunities for safe passage through or around human-modified landscapes are present. Brownian bridge movement models based on global positioning system collar data collected during bouts of active movement and linear mixed models were used to model habitat quality for puma movement; then, a wall-to-wall application of circuit theory models was used to produce a continuous statewide estimate of connectivity for puma movement and to identify pinch points, or bottlenecks, that may be most at risk of impacts from current and future traffic volume and expanding development. Rugged, shrub- and scrub-dominated regions were highlighted as those offering high quality movement habitat for pumas, and pinch points with the greatest potential impacts from expanding development and traffic, although widely distributed, were particularly prominent to the north and east of the city of Phoenix and along interstate highways in the western portion of the state. These pinch points likely constitute important conservation opportunities, where barriers to movement may cause disproportionate loss of connectivity, but also where actions such as placement of wildlife crossing structures or conservation easements could enhance connectivity and prevent detrimental impacts before they occur.

Identifying Corridors among Large Protected Areas in the United States.

Conservation scientists emphasize the importance of maintaining a connected network of protected areas to prevent ecosystems and populations from becoming isolated, reduce the risk of extinction, and ultimately sustain biodiversity. Keeping protected areas connected in a network is increasingly recognized as a conservation priority in the current era of rapid climate change. Models that identify suitable linkages between core areas have been used to prioritize potentially important corridors for maintaining functional connectivity. Here, we identify the most "natural" (i.e., least human-modified) corridors between large protected areas in the contiguous Unites States. We aggregated results from multiple connectivity models to develop a composite map of corridors reflecting agreement of models run under different assumptions about how human modification of land may influence connectivity. To identify which land units are most important for sustaining structural connectivity, we used the composite map of corridors to evaluate connectivity priorities in two ways: (1) among land units outside of our pool of large core protected areas and (2) among units administratively protected as Inventoried Roadless (IRAs) or Wilderness Study Areas (WSAs). Corridor values varied substantially among classes of "unprotected" non-core land units, and land units of high connectivity value and priority represent diverse ownerships and existing levels of protections. We provide a ranking of IRAs and WSAs that should be prioritized for additional protection to maintain minimal human modification. Our results provide a coarse-scale assessment of connectivity priorities for maintaining a connected network of protected areas.

Modeling and mapping the probability of occurrence of invasive wild pigs across the contiguous United States.

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa), also known as wild swine, feral pigs, or feral hogs, are one of the most widespread and successful invasive species around the world. Wild pigs have been linked to extensive and costly agricultural damage and present a serious threat to plant and animal communities due to their rooting behavior and omnivorous diet. We modeled the current distribution of wild pigs in the United States to better understand the physiological and ecological factors that may determine their invasive potential and to guide future study and eradication efforts. Using national-scale wild pig occurrence data reported between 1982 and 2012 by wildlife management professionals, we estimated the probability of wild pig occurrence across the United States using a logistic discrimination function and environmental covariates hypothesized to influence the distribution of the species. Our results suggest the distribution of wild pigs in the U.S. was most strongly limited by cold temperatures and availability of water, and that they were most likely to occur where potential home ranges had higher habitat heterogeneity, providing access to multiple key resources including water, forage, and cover. High probability of occurrence was also associated with frequent high temperatures, up to a high threshold. However, this pattern is driven by pigs' historic distribution in warm climates of the southern U.S. Further study of pigs' ability to persist in cold northern climates is needed to better understand whether low temperatures actually limit their distribution. Our model highlights areas at risk of invasion as those with habitat conditions similar to those found in pigs' current range that are also near current populations. This study provides a macro-scale approach to generalist species distribution modeling that is applicable to other generalist and invasive species.