Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection. METHODS: The IARC-ARCAGE European case-control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: 1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64). CONCLUSION: We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction.

Physical health of care-experienced young children in high-income countries: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Good health in the early years lays the foundation for lifelong health. Children with experience of extraparental care (eg, foster, kinship, residential) have poorer outcomes than children without such experience. Common health conditions in high-income countries differ from those in low-income and middle-income countries. Health conditions also vary substantially with age. The literature examining physical health conditions affecting young care-experienced children in high-income countries has not been previously reviewed. This review addresses this gap to better understand the health needs of these children. METHODS: In this scoping review, we used a broad range of search terms in MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Web of Science Core Collection databases to identify studies of (1) care-experienced children, (2) physical health outcomes, and (3) children aged 6 years or younger. Intersecting search results were retained for screening. Results were restricted to peer-reviewed journal articles indexed before Sept 1, 2022, with titles in English. Grey literature was excluded. No restriction was placed on study design. Results were narratively synthesised and categorised by health condition. FINDINGS: Searches yielded 15 639 results, and 33 articles were ultimately included, covering 11 countries. Studies were concentrated in the USA (n=18, 55%) and Europe (including UK; n=10, 30%). Most studies investigated a specific health outcome or set of outcomes (n=23, 70%) with many of the remaining studies carrying out broader health reviews (n=8, 24%). Height and weight were the most frequently reported outcomes (n=10, 30%) followed by vision (n=7, 21%) and dental health (n=7, 21%). Nine studies (27%) compared outcomes in care-experienced children with outcomes in non-care-experienced controls. Synthesis of results identified poor physical development, poor dental health, low rates of immunisation, dermatological conditions, and anaemia to be substantial health problems among young children with care experience. INTERPRETATION: Poor physical development and anaemia suggest efforts are required to improve care-experienced children's diet. Dermatological conditions and poor dental health can be managed by additional health-care support to care-experienced children and caregivers. A strength of this work is the standardised methodology. This work is limited by the exclusion of grey literature and restriction to high-income countries. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Chief Scientist Office (Scotland).

Inequalities in access to NHS primary care dental services in Scotland during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction This study aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access and inequalities in primary care dental services among children and adults in Scotland.Methods Access was measured as any NHS Scotland primary care dental contacts derived from administrative data from January 2019 to May 2022, linked to the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for children and adults, and related to population denominator estimates from National Record Scotland. Inequalities for pre-pandemic (January 2019-January 2020) and recent (December 2021-February 2022, and March 2022-May 2022) periods for both children and adults were calculated and compared using the slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality.Results Following the first lockdown (March 2020) there was a dramatic fall to near zero dental contacts, followed by a slow recovery to 64.8% of pre-pandemic levels by May 2022. There was initial widening of relative inequalities in dental contacts in early 2022, which, more recently, had begun to return to pre-pandemic levels.Conclusion COVID-19 had a major impact on access to NHS primary dental care, and while inequalities in access are apparent as services recover from lockdown, these inequalities are not a new phenomenon.

Evaluating childsmile, Scotland's National Oral Health Improvement Programme for children.

In the early 2000s, a Scottish Government Oral Health Action Plan identified the need for a national programme to improve child oral health and reduce inequalities. 'Childsmile' aimed to improve child oral health in Scotland, reduce inequalities in outcomes and access to dental services, and to shift the balance of care from treatment to prevention through targeted and universal components in dental practice, community and educational settings. This paper describes how an embedded, theory-based research and evaluation arm with multi-disciplinary input helps determine priorities and provides important strategic direction. Programme theory is articulated in dedicated, dynamic logic models, and evaluation themes are as follows: population-level data linkage; trials and economic evaluations; investigations drawing from behavioural and implementation science; evidence reviews and updates; and applications of systems science. There is also a growing knowledge sharing network internationally. Collaborative working from all stakeholders is necessary to maintain gains and to address areas that may not be working as well, and never more so with the major disruptions to the programme from the COVID-19 pandemic and response. Conclusions are that evaluation and research are synergistic with a complex, dynamic programme like Childsmile. The evidence obtained allows for appraisal of the relative strengths of component interventions and the reach and impact of Childsmile to feed into national policy.

Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: A rapid review.

Background: Cancer risk assessment models are used to support prevention and early detection. However, few models have been developed for head and neck cancer (HNC). Methods: A rapid review of Embase and MEDLINE identified n = 3045 articles. Following dual screening, n = 14 studies were included. Quality appraisal using the PROBAST (risk of bias) instrument was conducted, and a narrative synthesis was performed to identify the best performing models in terms of risk factors and designs. Results: Six of the 14 models were assessed as "high" quality. Of these, three had high predictive performance achieving area under curve values over 0.8 (0.87-0.89). The common features of these models were their inclusion of predictors carefully tailored to the target population/anatomical subsite and development with external validation. Conclusions: Some existing models do possess the potential to identify and stratify those at risk of HNC but there is scope for improvement.

Head and neck cancer in the UK: what was the stage before COVID-19? UK cancer registries analysis (2011-2018).

Introduction People who present with more advanced stage head and neck cancer (HNC) are associated with poorer outcomes and survival. The burden and trends of advanced stage HNC are not fully known at the population level. The UK national cancer registries routinely collect data on HNC diagnoses.Aims To describe trends in stage of diagnosis of HNCs across the UK before the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods Aggregated HNC incidence data were requested from the national cancer registries of the four UK countries for the ten most recent years of available data by subsite and American Joint Commission on Cancer stage at diagnosis classification. Additionally, data for Scotland were available by age group, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation category.Results Across the UK, rates of advanced stage HNC had increased, with 59% of patients having advanced disease at diagnosis from 2016-2018. England had a lower proportion of advanced disease (58%) than Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland (65-69%) where stage data were available. The completeness of stage data had improved over recent years (87% by 2018).Conclusion Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnoses of HNC at an advanced stage comprised the majority of HNCs in the UK, representing the major challenge for the cancer healthcare system.

Physical health of care-experienced young children in high-income countries: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Care-experienced children have poorer health, developmental, and quality of life outcomes across the lifespan compared to children who are not in care. These inequities begin to manifest in the early years. The purpose of the proposed scoping review is to collate and synthesise studies of the physical health of young care-experienced children. The results of the review will help map the distribution of health outcomes, identify potential targets for intervention, and assess gaps in the literature relating to this group. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will carry out a scoping review of the literature to identify studies of physical health outcomes in care-experienced children. Systematic literature searches will be carried out on the MEDLINE, CINAHL and Web of Science Core Collection databases for items indexed on or before 31 August 2022. Studies will be included where the participants are aged 3 months or greater and less than 6 years. Data elements extracted from included studies will include study objectives, health outcomes, participant demographics, care setting characteristics and bibliographic information. The results of the review will be synthesised and reported using a critical narrative approach. Comparisons between care and non-care populations will be reported if sufficient studies are identified. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Data will be extracted from publicly available sources, so no additional ethical approval is required. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal article. Furthermore, they will be shared in summary reports and presented to local authorities, care organisations and other relevant stakeholders that can influence healthcare policy and procedure relating to young children in care.

Cancer mortality 1981-2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality. METHODS: Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality. RESULTS: Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period. CONCLUSION: Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Occupational socioeconomic risk associations for head and neck cancer in Europe and South America: individual participant data analysis of pooled case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The association between socioeconomic disadvantage (low education and/or income) and head and neck cancer is well established, with smoking and alcohol consumption explaining up to three-quarters of the risk. We aimed to investigate the nature of and explanations for head and neck cancer risk associated with occupational socioeconomic prestige (a perceptual measure of psychosocial status), occupational socioeconomic position and manual-work experience, and to assess the potential explanatory role of occupational exposures. METHODS: Pooled analysis included 5818 patients with head and neck cancer (and 7326 control participants) from five studies in Europe and South America. Lifetime job histories were coded to: (1) occupational social prestige-Treiman's Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); (2) occupational socioeconomic position-International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI); and (3) manual/non-manual jobs. RESULTS: For the longest held job, adjusting for smoking, alcohol and nature of occupation, increased head and neck cancer risk estimates were observed for low SIOPS OR=1.88 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.17), low ISEI OR=1.74 (95% CI: 1.51 to 1.99) and manual occupations OR=1.49 (95% CI: 1.35 to 1.64). Following mutual adjustment by socioeconomic exposures, risk associated with low SIOPS remained OR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.94). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that low occupational socioeconomic prestige, position and manual work are associated with head and neck cancer, and such risks are only partly explained by smoking, alcohol and occupational exposures. Perceptual occupational psychosocial status (SIOPS) appears to be the strongest socioeconomic factor, relative to socioeconomic position and manual/non-manual work.

Inequality in survival of people with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000 cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Explanations for socioeconomic inequalities in survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients have had limited attention and are not well understood. METHODS: The UK Head and Neck 5000 prospective clinical cohort study was analyzed. Survival relating to measures of socioeconomic status was explored including area-based and individual factors. Three-year overall survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. All-cause mortality was investigated via adjusted Cox Proportional Hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 3440 people were included. Three-year overall survival was 76.3% (95% CI 74.9, 77.7). Inequality in survival by deprivation category, highest education level, and financial concerns was explained by age, sex, health, and behavioral factors. None of the potential explanatory factors fully explained the inequality associated with annual household income or the proportion of income of benefits. CONCLUSION: These results support the interventions to address the financial issues within the wider care and support provided to HNC patients.

Evaluation of a national complex oral health improvement programme: a population data linkage cohort study in Scotland.

OBJECTIVES: Child dental caries is a global public health challenge with high prevalence and wide inequalities. A complex public health programme (Childsmile) was established. We aimed to evaluate the reach of the programme and its impact on child oral health. SETTING: Education, health and community settings, Scotland-wide. INTERVENTIONS: Childsmile (national oral health improvement programme) interventions: nursery-based fluoride varnish applications (FVAs) and supervised daily toothbrushing, community-based Dental Health Support Worker (DHSW) contacts and primary care dental practice visits-delivered to the population via a proportionate universal approach. PARTICIPANTS: 50 379 children (mean age=5.5 years, SD=0.3) attending local authority schools (2014/2015). DESIGN: Population-based individual child-level data on four Childsmile interventions linked to dental inspection survey data to form a longitudinal cohort. Logistic regression assessed intervention reach and the independent impact of each intervention on caries experience, adjusting for age, sex and area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). OUTCOME MEASURES: Reach of the programme is defined as the percentage of children receiving each intervention at least once by SIMD fifth. Obvious dental caries experience (presence/absence) is defined as the presence of decay (into dentine), missing (extracted) due to decay or filled deciduous teeth. RESULTS: 15 032 (29.8%) children had caries experience. The universal interventions had high population reach: nursery toothbrushing (89.1%), dental practice visits (70.5%). The targeted interventions strongly favoured children from the most deprived areas: DHSW contacts (SIMD 1: 29.5% vs SIMD 5: 7.7%), nursery FVAs (SIMD 1: 75.2% vs SIMD 5: 23.2%). Odds of caries experience were markedly lower among children participating in nursery toothbrushing (>3 years, adjusted OR (aOR)=0.60; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.66) and attending dental practice (≥6 visits, aOR=0.55; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.61). The findings were less clear for DHSW contacts. Nursery FVAs were not independently associated with caries experience. CONCLUSIONS: The universal interventions, nursery toothbrushing and regular dental practice visits were independently and most strongly associated with reduced odds of caries experience in the cohort, with nursery toothbrushing having the greatest impact among children in areas of high deprivation.

Fluoride Varnish in Nursery Schools: A Randomised Controlled Trial - Protecting Teeth @3.

Studies suggest that fluoride varnish (FV) application can reduce dental caries in child populations. The multiple-component national child oral health improvement programme in Scotland (Childsmile) includes nursery-based universal supervised toothbrushing and deprivation-targeted FV applications, together with community and dental practice prevention interventions. This trial, a double-blind, two-arm randomised control trial, aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the nursery-based FV applications plus treatment-as-usual (TAU) Childsmile programme interventions, compared to TAU Childsmile interventions alone, in children not targeted to receive nursery FV as part of the programme. Participating children in the first year of nursery (aged three), with or without existing caries, were randomised to either FV or TAU and followed up for 24 months until the first year of primary school. Treatments were administered at six-monthly intervals. The primary endpoint was "worsening of d3mft" from baseline to 24 months. Secondary endpoints were worsening of d3mfs, d3t, mt, and ft. Individual record-linkage captured wider programme activities and tertiary endpoints. A total of 1,284 children were randomised, leading to 1,150 evaluable children (n = 577 FV, n = 573 TAU, 10% dropouts). Mean age was 3.5 years, 50% were female (n = 576), 17% had caries at baseline (n = 195), all balanced between the groups. Most children received three/four treatments. Overall, 26.9% (n = 155) had worsened d3mft in the FV group, and 31.6% (n = 181) in the TAU group, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.80 (0.62-1.03), p = 0.078. The results for worsening of the secondary endpoints were: d3mfs 0.79 (0.61-1.01) p = 0.063, d3t 0.75 (0.57-0.99) p = 0.043, mt 1.34 (0.75-2.39) p = 0.319, and ft 0.77 (0.53-1.14) p = 0.191. We calculated a number needed to treat of 21 and a cost of GBP 686 to prevent a single worsening of d3mft. There was a modest non-significant reduction in the worsening of d3mft in the nursery FV group compared to TAU, suggesting that this intervention is unlikely to represent an effective or cost-effective addition to the population oral health improvement programme.

Determinants of long-term survival in a population-based cohort study of patients with head and neck cancer from Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We investigated long-term survival from head and neck cancer (HNC) using different survival approaches. METHODS: Patients were followed-up from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Net survival was calculated by the Pohar-Perme method. Mutually adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the predictors of survival. RESULTS: A total of 1820 patients were included in the analyses. Overall survival at 12 years was 26.3% (24.3%, 28.3%). Disease-specific survival at 12 years was 56.9% (54.3%, 59.4%). Net survival at 12 years was 41.4% (37.6%, 45.1%). CONCLUSION: Determinants associated with long-term survival included age, stage, treatment modality, WHO performance status, alcohol consumption, smoking behavior, and anatomical site. We recommend that net survival is used for long-term outcomes for HNC patients-it disentangles other causes of death, which are overestimated in overall survival and underestimated in disease-specific survival.

Inequalities in the dental health needs and access to dental services among looked after children in Scotland: a population data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the health needs and service access among children and young people who are looked after by the state. The aim of this study was to compare dental treatment needs and access to dental services (as an exemplar of wider health and well-being concerns) among children and young people who are looked after with the general child population. METHODS: Population data linkage study utilising national datasets of social work referrals for 'looked after' placements, the Scottish census of children in local authority schools, and national health service's dental health and service datasets. RESULTS: 633 204 children in publicly funded schools in Scotland during the academic year 2011/2012, of whom 10 927 (1.7%) were known to be looked after during that or a previous year (from 2007-2008). The children in the looked after children (LAC) group were more likely to have urgent dental treatment need at 5 years of age: 23%vs10% (n=209/16533), adjusted (for age, sex and area socioeconomic deprivation) OR 2.65 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.05); were less likely to attend a dentist regularly: 51%vs63% (n=5519/388934), 0.55 (0.53 to 0.58) and more likely to have teeth extracted under general anaesthesia: 9%vs5% (n=967/30253), 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04). CONCLUSIONS: LAC are more likely to have dental treatment needs and less likely to access dental services even when accounting for sociodemographic factors. Greater efforts are required to integrate child social and healthcare for LAC and to develop preventive care pathways on entering and throughout their time in the care system.

Trends of oral cavity, oropharyngeal and laryngeal cancer incidence in Scotland (1975-2012) - A socioeconomic perspective.

AIM: To examine current incidence trends (1975-2012) of oral cavity (OCC), oropharyngeal (OPC) and laryngeal cancer in Scotland by socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: We included all diagnosed cases of OCC (C00.3-C00.9, C02-C06 excluding C2.4), OPC (C01, C2.4, C09-C10, C14) and laryngeal cancer (C32) on the Scottish Cancer Registry (1975-2012) and annual midterm population estimates by age, sex, geographic region and SES indices (Carstairs 1991 and Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 2009). Age-standardized incidence rates were computed and adjusted Poisson regression rate-ratios (RR) compared subsites by age, sex, region, SES and year of diagnosis. RESULTS: We found 28,217 individuals (19,755 males and 8462 females) diagnosed with head and neck cancer (HNC) over the study period. Between 1975 and 2012, relative to the least deprived areas, those living in the most deprived areas exhibited the highest RR (>double) of OCC, OPC and laryngeal cancer, and an almost dose-like response was observed between SES and HNC incidence. Between 2001 and 2012, this socioeconomic inequality tended to increase over time for OPC and laryngeal cancer but remained relatively unchanged for OCC. Incidence rates increased markedly for OPC, decreased for laryngeal cancer and remained stable for OCC, particularly in the last decade. Males exhibited significantly higher RRs compared to females, and the peak age of incidence of OPC was slightly lower than the other subsites. CONCLUSION: Contrary to reports that OPC exhibits an inverse socioeconomic profile, Scotland country-level data show that those from the most deprived areas consistently have the highest rates of head and neck cancers.

Evaluation of dental therapists undertaking dental examinations in a school setting in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE: To measure agreement between dental therapists and the Scottish gold-standard dentist undertaking National Dental Inspection Programme (NDIP) examinations. METHODS: A study of interexaminer agreement between 19 dental therapists and the national gold-standard dentist was carried out. Pre-calibration training used the caries diagnostic criteria and examination techniques agreed by the British Association for the Study of Community Dentistry (BASCD). Twenty-three 5-year-old children (Primary 1) and 17 11-year-old children (Primary 7) children were examined. Agreement was assessed using kappa statistics on d3 mft and D3 MFT for P1 and P7 children, sensitivity and specificity values, and kappa statistics on d3 t/D3 T and ft/FT. Calibration data on P1 and P7 children from 2009-2012 involving dentists as examiners were used for comparison. Economic evaluation was undertaken using a cost minimization analysis approach. RESULTS: The mean kappa score was 0.84 (SD 0.07) ranging from 0.69 to 0.94. All dental therapists scored good or very good agreement with the gold-standard dentist. This compares with historic NDIP calibration data with dentists, against the same gold-standard dentist, where the mean kappa value was 0.68 (SD 0.22) with a range of 0.35-1.00. The mean sensitivity score was 0.98 (SD 0.04) (range 0.88-1.0) and mean specificity score was 0.90 (SD 0.06) (range 0.78-0.96). Health economic analysis estimated that salary costs would be 33.6% lower if dental therapists were substituted for dentists in the year 2013, with an estimated saving of approximately £103 646 per annum on the national budget. CONCLUSION: We conclude that dental therapists show a high level of interexaminer agreement, and with the appropriate annual training and calibration, they could undertake dental examinations as part of the NDIP programme.

Comparison of the caries-protective effect of fluoride varnish with treatment as usual in nursery school attendees receiving preventive oral health support through the Childsmile oral health improvement programme - the Protecting Teeth@3 Study: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The Scottish Government set out its policy on addressing the poor oral health of Scottish children in 2005. This led to the establishment of Childsmile, a national programme designed to improve the oral health of children in Scotland. One element of the programme promotes daily tooth brushing in all nurseries in Scotland (Childsmile Core). A second targeted component (Childsmile Nursery) offers twice-yearly application of fluoride varnish to children attending nurseries in deprived areas. Studies suggest that fluoride varnish application can reduce caries in both adult and child populations. This trial aims to explore the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of additional preventive value fluoride varnish application compared to Childsmile Core. METHODS/DESIGN: The Protecting Teeth@3 Study is an ongoing 2 year parallel group randomised treatment as usual controlled trial. Three-year-old children attending the ante pre-school year are randomised (1:1) to the intervention arm (fluoride varnish & treatment as usual) or the control arm (treatment as usual). Children in the intervention arm will have Duraphat® fluoride varnish painted on the primary tooth surfaces and will continue to receive treatment as usual: the core Childsmile Nursery intervention. Children in the treatment as usual arm will receive the same series of contacts, without the application of varnish and will also continue with the Childsmile Core intervention. Interventions are undertaken by Childsmile trained extended duty dental nurses at six-monthly intervals. Participants receive a baseline dental inspection in nursery and an endpoint inspection in Primary 1 at the age of 5 years old. We will use primary and secondary outcome measures to compare the effectiveness of Duraphat® fluoride varnish plus treatment as usual with treatment as usual only in preventing any further dental decay. We will also undertake a full economic evaluation of the trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. Number: NCT01674933 (24 August 2012).

Improving Child Oral Health: Cost Analysis of a National Nursery Toothbrushing Programme.

UNLABELLED: Dental caries is one of the most common diseases of childhood. The aim of this study was to compare the cost of providing the Scotland-wide nursery toothbrushing programme with associated National Health Service (NHS) cost savings from improvements in the dental health of five-year-old children: through avoided dental extractions, fillings and potential treatments for decay. METHODS: Estimated costs of the nursery toothbrushing programme in 2011/12 were requested from all Scottish Health Boards. Unit costs of a filled, extracted and decayed primary tooth were calculated using verifiable sources of information. Total costs associated with dental treatments were estimated for the period from 1999/00 to 2009/10. These costs were based on the unit costs above and using the data of the National Dental Inspection Programme and then extrapolated to the population level. Expected cost savings were calculated for each of the subsequent years in comparison with the 2001/02 dental treatment costs. Population standardised analysis of hypothetical cohorts of 1000 children per deprivation category was performed. RESULTS: The estimated cost of the nursery toothbrushing programme in Scotland was £1,762,621 per year. The estimated cost of dental treatments in the baseline year 2001/02 was £8,766,297, while in 2009/10 it was £4,035,200. In 2002/03 the costs of dental treatments increased by £213,380 (2.4%). In the following years the costs decreased dramatically with the estimated annual savings ranging from £1,217,255 in 2003/04 (13.9% of costs in 2001/02) to £4,731,097 in 2009/10 (54.0%). Population standardised analysis by deprivation groups showed that the largest decrease in modelled costs was for the most deprived cohort of children. CONCLUSIONS: The NHS costs associated with the dental treatments for five-year-old children decreased over time. In the eighth year of the toothbrushing programme the expected savings were more than two and a half times the costs of the programme implementation.

Elimination of 'the Glasgow effect' in levels of dental caries in Scotland's five-year-old children: 10 cross-sectional surveys (1994-2012).

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in health within Glasgow, Scotland, are among the widest in the world. This is largely attributed to socio-economic conditions. The 'Glasgow Effect' labels the finding that the high prevalence of some diseases cannot be fully explained by a conventional area-based socio-economic metric. This study aimed to investigate whether differences in dental caries between Glasgow's resident children and those in the Rest of Scotland could be explained by this metric and whether differences were of fixed magnitude, over time. METHODS: Scotland's National Dental Inspection Programme (NDIP) cross-sectional data for five-year-old children in years: 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 (n = 92,564) were utilised. Endpoints were calculated from the mean decayed, missing and filled teeth score (d3mft) and percentage with obvious decay experience. Socioeconomic status was measured by DepCat, a Scottish area-based index. The Glasgow Effect was estimated by the odds-ratio (OR) of decay for Glasgow versus the Rest of Scotland adjusted by age, gender and DepCat. Inequalities were also assessed by the Significant Caries Index (SIC), SIC 10, and Scottish Caries Inequality Metric (SCIM 10). RESULTS: Decay levels for deprived Glasgow children have reduced to be similar to those in the Rest of Scotland. In 1993, OR for d3mft > 0 for those living in the Glasgow area was 1.34(1.10, 1.64), p = 0.005. This reduced below unity in 2012, OR = 0.85(0.77, 0.93), p < 0.001. There were downward trends (p < 0.001) in absolute inequality measured by SIC and SIC 10 in each of the geographic areas. The SCIM 10 demonstrated further reductions in inequality across the population. The downward trends for all the inequality measures were larger for Glasgow than the Rest of Scotland. CONCLUSIONS: Over the interval, Glasgow has eliminated the earlier extra health inequalities. When comparing 'like for like' by socioeconomic status there is now no higher level of dental caries in the Greater Glasgow area.