Gait speed, handgrip strength, and their combination, and risk of depression in later life: Evidence from a prospective study of community-dwelling older adults.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association between gait speed, handgrip strength, and their combination, and the risk for developing clinically relevant depressive symptoms in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted using data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study. Participants were community-dwelling older adults in Australia and the United States of America followed for a median (interquartile range) of 3.97 (2.26) years. Baseline handgrip strength and gait speed were used as exposure variables, and their combination categories were also explored. Depression was measured using the modified Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression 10-item scale (CES-D 10). Cox regression was used to estimate Adjusted Hazard Ratios (AHR) with 95 % Confidence Intervals (CI) after adjusting for a range of potential confounders. RESULT: A total of 17,231 participants (55.3 % women) were included in the analysis. Slow gait and weak grip at baseline were associated with the risk of depression (AHR: 1.20; CI: 1.11-1.29 and 1.14; 1.06-1.23, respectively). The combination of the two physical performance measures was associated with a 31 % increase in the risk of depression (1.31; 1.16-1.47) and a significant dose-response association was observed for quintiles of gait and grip with depression. LIMITATIONS: Although the CES-D 10 is a validated scale, it is a self-reported tool rather than a clinical diagnosis of depression. CONCLUSION: Low physical function may be a risk factor for depression in older adults. This highlights the inextricable link between the physical and mental health of older adults, which can inform potential clinical and public health prevention strategies for depression in later life.

Polygenic risk, aspirin and primary prevention of coronary artery disease.

AIMS: Recent aspirin primary prevention trials failed to identify a net benefit of aspirin for preventing cardiovascular disease versus the harms of bleeding. This study aimed to investigate whether a high-risk subgroup, individuals with elevated genetic predisposition to coronary artery disease (CAD), might derive more benefit than harm with aspirin, compared to those with lower genetic risk. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed genetic risk stratification of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial using a CAD polygenic risk score (GPSMult). For 12,031 genotyped participants (5,974 aspirin, 6,057 placebo) overall, we stratified them by GPSMult quintiles (q1-5), then examined risk of CAD (composite of myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease death) and bleeding events using Cox models. During a median 4.6 years of follow-up with randomization to 100 mg/day aspirin versus placebo, 234 (1.9%) participants had CAD and 373 (3.1%) had bleeding events. In the overall cohort, aspirin resulted in higher bleeding risk (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR]=1.30 [1.06-1.61], P=0.01) but no significant CAD reduction (aHR=0.84 [0.64-1.09], P=0.19). However, among the highest quintile of polygenic risk (q5, top 20% of the GPSMult distribution), there was a 47% reduction in risk of CAD events with aspirin (aHR=0.53 [0.31-0.90], P=0.02) without increased bleeding risk (aHR=1.05 [0.60-1.82], P=0.88). Interaction between the GPSMult and aspirin was significant for CAD (q5 versus q1, P=0.02) but not bleeding (P=0.80). CONCLUSION: The balance between net benefit and harm on aspirin in the primary prevention setting shifts favourably in individuals with an elevated genetic predisposition.

Establishing the TSH reference intervals for healthy adults aged over 70 years: the Australian ASPREE cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: As thyroid disorders are common amongst the elderly, this study aims to evaluate the reference interval (RI) for thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) in healthy adults aged 70 years and over. METHODS: A proposed RI was determined from the Australian participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomised trial. Participants had no history of cardiovascular disease, thyroid cancer, dementia, or life-threatening illnesses. Participants prescribed with any thyroid-related medication at baseline were excluded. TSH levels were measured using a commercial chemiluminescence microparticle immunoassay. The RI was determined using the middle 95th percentile of the logarithmic transformed data of baseline TSH. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to validate the RI by assessing disease incidence over time. RESULTS: A total of 10,995 participants had baseline TSH measures. Median (IQR) age was 73.9 (71.8-77.3) years. We propose a RI of 0.34-3.75 mU/L. TSH levels did not differ by age or sex. At baseline, there was no association between symptoms associated with thyroid disease and levels of TSH. Over the follow-up period of up to 11 years, no association was seen between baseline TSH levels and relevant disease outcomes for participants within the RI. CONCLUSIONS: From a group of initially healthy, community-dwelling adults aged >=70 years, we propose a RI of TSH to best represent euthyroidism. This concentration was not associated with an increased risk of thyroid related symptoms or outcomes, confirming its appropriateness for clinical use.

Mediterranean Diet and Ultra-Processed Food Intake in Older Australian Adults-Associations with Frailty and Cardiometabolic Conditions.

Dietary patterns contribute to overall health and diseases of ageing but are understudied in older adults. As such, we first aimed to develop dietary indices to quantify Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) utilisation and Ultra-processed Food (UPF) intake in a well-characterised cohort of relatively healthy community-dwelling older Australian adults. Second, we aimed to understand the relationship between these scores and the association of these scores with prevalent cardiometabolic disease and frailty. Our major findings are that in this population of older adults, (a) pre-frailty and frailty are associated with reduced MDS and increased UPF intake; (b) adherence to MDS eating patterns does not preclude relatively high intake of UPF (and vice versa); and (c) high utilisation of an MDS eating pattern does not prevent an increased risk of frailty with higher UPF intakes. As such, the Mediterranean Diet pattern should be encouraged in older adults to potentially reduce the risk of frailty, while the impact of UPF intake should be further explored given the convenience these foods provide to a population whose access to unprocessed food may be limited due to socioeconomic, health, and lifestyle factors.

Beyond T-Trials, T4DM and TRAVERSE: the next large testosterone randomized controlled trial.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Lower testosterone concentrations have been associated with poorer health outcomes in ageing men, but proving causality and demonstrating potential for therapeutic benefit requires randomized clinical trials (RCTs). This review discusses recent observational findings and results of major testosterone RCTs, to explore the need for another, larger trial. RECENT FINDINGS: Evidence of Leydig cell impairment emerges in men above the age of 70 years. Lower testosterone is associated with diabetes risk, and also risk of incident dementia. An individual participant data meta-analysis found that below thresholds of testosterone of 7.4 nmol/L and 5.3 nmol/l respectively, risks of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular deaths in men increased. Testosterone for the Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T4DM), a multicentre RCT, showed that testosterone treatment prevented or reverted type 2 diabetes in men at high risk. Testosterone Replacement Therapy for Assessment of Long-term Vascular Events and Efficacy Response in Hypogonadal Men (TRAVERSE), a cardiovascular safety trial, demonstrated cardiovascular and prostate safety of testosterone treatment in men with or at risk of cardiovascular disease. T4DM confirmed findings from the Testosterone Trials (T-Trials) that testosterone improved sexual function, and bone microarchitecture and density. However, in TRAVERSE, testosterone-treated men had a higher risk of clinical bone fractures, but not major osteoporotic fractures. SUMMARY: Men with disorders of the hypothalamic-pituitary-testicular (HPT) axis causing androgen deficiency warrant consideration for testosterone therapy. In men with an intact HPT axis, testosterone treatment is a pharmacological intervention which requires justification from high quality RCT data. Currently, there is insufficient evidence to justify wider use of testosterone for prevention of cardiometabolic disease. However, there is scope for another large testosterone RCT to investigate whether testosterone treatment might, in older men, extend disability-free survival.

Serum Transaminases and Older Adults: Distribution and Associations With All-Cause Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are commonly ordered tests in general medical practice. However, their distribution and significance in older adults are understudied. As such, we aimed to evaluate sex-stratified distribution of both ALT and AST in older adults (≥70 years) and assess for associations with mortality. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin for initially relatively healthy older persons. Univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression were used to explore baseline characteristics. Cox regression and restricted cubic splines were used to examine links between transaminase levels and mortality. RESULTS: Of the 11 853 participants with ALT and AST levels, 1 054 (8.9%) deaths were recorded over a median of 6.4 (interquartile range [IQR] 5.4-7.6) years. For ALT, the lowest quintiles for males and females were 6-15 and 5-13 U/L, respectively; for AST, the lowest quintiles were 8-18 and 7-17 U/L, respectively. On both univariate and models adjusted for covariates including age, body mass index, frailty, diabetes, and kidney disease, males and females in the lowest quintile of ALT had an increased hazard of mortality (aHR 1.51 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.14-1.99] and aHR 1.39 [95% CI 1.03-1.88], respectively). For the lowest quintile of AST, only males were at increased risk (aHR 1.33 [95% CI 1.04-1.70]). Associations remained significant when removing outliers. CONCLUSIONS: Low ALT levels independently confer an increased hazard of mortality for older males and females; low AST only affected older male survival. Further evaluation of mechanisms would be worthwhile, and re-evaluating the lower limit of normal for ALT in older adults should be considered.

Outcome risk model development for heterogeneity of treatment effect analyses: a comparison of non-parametric machine learning methods and semi-parametric statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: In randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual's risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis. METHODS: Three approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States' participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran's Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup. RESULTS: The proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0-26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1-24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4-39.4%). Cochran's Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses.

Low-Dose Aspirin and Progression of Age-Related Hearing Loss: A Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Age-related hearing loss is common in an aging population, affecting communication and contributing to a worsened quality of life. It occurs as a result of cochlear degeneration and may be further exacerbated by inflammation and microvascular changes, as observed in animal models. Objective: To compare the effect of daily low-dose aspirin vs placebo on the progression of age-related hearing loss in healthy older adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prespecified secondary analysis was conducted of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized clinical trial. Participants were 279 healthy community-dwelling individuals living in Australia who were aged 70 years or older and free of overt cardiovascular diseases, dementia, and life-limiting illnesses. Participants were recruited between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2014, and followed up over 3 years. Statistical analysis was completed from June to December 2023. Intervention: A 100-mg daily dose of enteric-coated aspirin or matching placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hearing measures were air conduction audiometry and binaural speech perception in noise. Assessments were conducted at baseline, 18 months, and 3 years. The change from baseline hearing measures were analyzed using an intention to treat approach. Aspirin and placebo were compared using mixed linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, and smoking. Results: Of 279 participants, 154 (55%) were male, and the median age at baseline was 73.1 years (IQR, 71.5-76.2 years). A total of 98 of 138 participants (71%) in the aspirin group and 94 of 141 participants (67%) in the placebo group reported experiencing hearing loss at baseline. Compared with placebo, aspirin did not affect the changes in mean (SD) 4-frequency average hearing threshold from baseline to year 3 (aspirin: baseline, 27.8 [13.3] dB; year 3, 30.7 [13.7] dB; difference, 3.3 [3.9] dB; placebo: baseline, 27.5 [12.6] dB; year 3, 30.9 [13.8] dB; difference, 3.0 [4.8] dB; P = .55) nor any other tested frequencies. An increase in air conduction threshold indicates a deterioration in hearing. Similarly, for the mean (SD) speech reception threshold, there was no significant difference observed between the aspirin and placebo group at the year 3 follow-up assessment (aspirin: baseline, -9.9 [3.8] dB; year 3, -9.1 [3.8] dB; difference, 0.9 [2.9] dB; placebo: baseline, -10.5 [7.1] dB; year 3, -9.6 [4.1] dB; difference, 0.9 [5.9] dB; P = .86). The findings were consistent across sex, age groups, diabetic and smoking status. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of the ASPREE randomized clinical trial, low-dose aspirin did not affect the progression of age-related hearing loss. More investigation is warranted on whether a longer follow-up or the use of a more powerful anti-inflammatory agent might prove beneficial. Trial Registration: anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12614000496617.

Effect of Low-Dose Aspirin on the Course of Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Secondary Analysis of the ASPREE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of irreversible vision loss in old age. There is no proven intervention to prevent AMD and, apart from lifestyle, nutritional, and supplement advice, there is no intervention to delay its progression. Objective: To determine the impact of long-term low-dose aspirin on the incidence and progression of AMD. Design, Setting and Participants: The Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly-AMD (ASPREE-AMD) study was an Australian-based substudy of the ASPREE trial, a multicenter, international, randomized, double-masked, placebo-clinical trial investigating the efficacy of low-dose aspirin in prolonging disability-free survival among older individuals. Retinal photography was conducted at baseline from March 2010 to January 2015, then 3 and 5 years after randomization. AMD status was determined using color retinal images and treatment records. Australian participants in ASPREE aged 70 years and older without dementia, independence-limiting physical disability, cardiovascular disease, or chronic illness limiting 5-year survival and with gradable retinal images at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to December 2023. Interventions: Aspirin (100 mg daily, enteric coated) or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of AMD and progression from early/intermediate to late AMD. Outcomes were analyzed by modified intention-to-treat analysis. Results: A total of 4993 participants were enrolled in this substudy. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. At the time of sponsor-determined trial termination, retinal follow-up data were available for 3208 participants, 3171 of whom were analyzed for AMD incidence and progression, with a median (IQR) age of 73.5 (71.5-76.4) years and even sex distribution (1619 [51%] female). Median (IQR) follow-up time was 3.1 (3.0-3.5) years. Cumulative AMD incidence was 195 of 1004 (19.4%) in the aspirin group and 187 of 979 (19.1%) in the placebo group (relative risk [RR], 1.02; 95% CI, 0.85-1.22; P = .86). Cumulative progression from early/intermediate AMD to late AMD was observed in 14 of 615 (2.3%) participants in the aspirin group and 18 of 573 (3.1%) in the placebo group (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.36-1.44; P = .36). Conclusions and Relevance: In this trial, low-dose aspirin administered for 3 years did not affect the incidence of AMD. The evidence was weaker for progression of AMD due to low number of progressed cases. Overall, these results do not support suggestion that low-dose daily aspirin prevents the development or progression of AMD. Trial Registration: anzctr.org Identifier: ACTRN12613000755730.

Testosterone and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in older men: further analysis of the ASPREE study.

Background: A cardiovascular safety trial of testosterone in men with cardiovascular risk factors or disease found no difference in rates of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) or death but noted more atrial fibrillation (AF) events in testosterone-treated men. We investigated the relationship between endogenous testosterone concentrations with risk of developing AF in healthy older men. Methods: Post-hoc analysis of 4570 male participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study. Men were aged ≥ 70 years, had no history of cardiovascular disease (including AF), thyroid disease, prostate cancer, dementia, or life-threatening illnesses. Risk of AF was modelled using Cox proportional hazards regression. Findings: Median (IQR) age was 73.7 (71.6-77.1) years and median (IQR) follow-up 4.4 (3.3-5.5) years, during which 286 men developed AF (15.3 per 1000 participant-years). Baseline testosterone was higher in men who developed incident AF compared men who did not [17.0 (12.4-21.2) vs 15.7 (12.2-20.0) nmol/L]. There was a non-linear association of baseline testosterone with incident AF. The risk for AF was higher in men with testosterone in quintiles (Q) 4&5 (Q4:Q3, HR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.29-2.83 and Q5:Q3HR = 1.98; 95%CI = 1.33-2.94). Results were similar after excluding men who experienced MACE or heart failure during follow-up. Interpretation: Circulating testosterone concentrations within the high-normal range are independently associated with an increased risk of incident AF amongst healthy older men. This suggests that AF may be an adverse consequence of high-normal total testosterone concentrations. Funding: National Institute on Aging and National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health; Australian Government (NHMRC, CSIRO); Monash University; and AlfredHealth.

Association of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level with risk of incident dementia: a cohort study of healthy older adults.

Background: Recent studies have reported associations between high plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and risk of all-cause mortality, age-related macular degeneration, sepsis and fractures, but associations with dementia risk remain unclear. To determine whether high plasma HDL-C levels are associated with increased incident dementia risk in initially-healthy older people. Methods: We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial; a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin in healthy older people. ASPREE recruited 16,703 participants aged ≥70 years (from Australia) and 2411 participants aged ≥65 years (from the US) between 2010 and 2014. Participants had no diagnosed cardiovascular disease, dementia, physical disability, or life-threatening illness at enrolment and were cognitively healthy (3MS score ≥78). All-cause dementia was a primary trial endpoint, and determined by DSM-IV criteria. Cox regression was used to examine hazard ratios between HDL-C categories <40 mg/dL, 40-60 mg/dL (reference category), 60-80 mg/dL, and >80 mg/dL and dementia. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to determine nonlinear associations. Data analysis was performed from October 2022 to January 2023. Findings: Of the 18,668 participants, 850 (4.6%) cases of incident dementia were recorded over 6.3 (SD 1.8) years. Participants with high HDL-C (>80 mg/dL) had a 27% higher risk of dementia (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.03, 1.58). Age stratified analyses demonstrated that the risk of incident dementia was higher in participants ≥75 years compared to participants <75 years (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.10, 1.83 vs HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.68, 1.51). Associations remained significant after adjusting for covariates including age, sex, country of enrolment, daily exercise, education, alcohol consumption, weight change over time, non-HDL-C, HDL-C-PRS, and APOE genotype. Interpretation: In a population of initially-healthy older adults aged ≥75 years, high HDL-C levels were associated with increased risk of all-cause dementia. Funding: National Institutes of Health, USA; National Health and Medical Research Council Australia; Monash University (Melbourne, VIC, Australia); and the Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia).

Association of serum phosphate, calcium and alkaline phosphatase with risk of incident fractures in healthy older adults.

BACKGROUND: Aging increases fracture risk through bone loss and microarchitecture deterioration due to an age-related imbalance in bone resorption and formation during bone remodelling. We examined the associations between levels of phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase, and fracture risk in initially-healthy older individuals. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial recruited 16,703 Australian participants aged ≥70 years and 2,411 US participants aged ≥65 years. Analyses were conducted on ASPREE-Fracture substudy participants from Australia with serum calcium, phosphate, and alkaline phosphatase measurement. Fracture data were collected post-randomization. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Phosphate, calcium, and alkaline phosphatase were analysed in deciles (D1-D10), with deciles 4-7 (31-70%) as the reference category. Restricted cubic spline curves were used to identify nonlinear associations. RESULTS: Of the 9915 participants, 907 (9·2%) persons had incident fractures recorded over 3·9 (SD 1·4) years. In the fully adjusted model, males in the top decile (D10) of phosphate had 78% higher risk of incident fracture (HR 1·78, 95% CI 1·25-2·54). No such association was observed for females (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·83-1·44). The population attributable fraction in men within the D10 phosphate category is 6·9%. CONCLUSION: This result confirms that, high-normal serum phosphate levels are associated with increased fracture risk in older men.

Predictive Performance of an Updated Polygenic Risk Score for Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

PURPOSE: A recent genome-wide association study of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) identified new AMD-associated risk variants. These variants now can be incorporated into an updated polygenic risk score (PRS). This study aimed to assess the performance of an updated PRS, PRS2023, in an independent cohort of older individuals with retinal imaging data and to compare performance with an older PRS, PRS2016. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 4175 participants of European ancestry, 70 years of age or older, with genotype and retinal imaging data. METHODS: We used logistic regression models and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to assess the performance of PRS2023 compared with PRS2016. AMD status and severity were graded using color fundus photography. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Association of PRS2023 and PRS2016 with AMD risk at baseline. RESULTS: At enrollment among 4175 participants, 2605 participants (62.4%) had no AMD and 853 participants (20.4%), 671 participants (16.1%), and 46 participants (1.1%) had early, intermediate, and late-stage AMD, respectively. More than 27% of the participants with a high PRS2023 (top quartile) had intermediate or late-stage AMD, compared with < 15% for those in the middle 2 quartiles and less than 13% for those in the lowest quartile. Both PRS2023 and PRS2016 were associated significantly with AMD after adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, and lipid levels, with increasing odds ratios (ORs) for worsening AMD grades. PRS2023 outperformed PRS2016 (P = 0.03 for all AMD and P = 0.03 for late AMD, DeLong test comparing AUC). PRS2023 was associated with late-stage AMD with an adjusted OR of 5.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.41-7.47) per standard deviation. The AUC of a model containing conventional or nongenetic risk factors and PRS2023 was 91% (95% CI, 87%-95%) for predicting late-stage AMD, which improved 12% over the model without the PRS (AUC, 79%; P < 0.001 for difference). CONCLUSIONS: A new PRS, PRS2023, for AMD outperforms a previous PRS and predicts increasing risk for late-stage AMD (with stronger association for more severe imaging-confirmed AMD grades). Our findings have clinical implications for the improved prediction and risk stratification of AMD. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Genome-wide association study identifies genetic regulation of oestrone concentrations and association with endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Oestrone, predominantly made in fat, is the main circulating oestrogen and important for target tissue oestradiol production in women after menopause. The present study was undertaken to determine the genetic regulation of blood oestrone, measured with precision, in postmenopausal women and to explore associations between the identified genetic loci and endometrial cancer in a large, independent cohort. METHODS: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was undertaken in women aged at least 70 years to identify genetic associations with blood oestrone concentrations measured by liquid chromatography and tandem mass spectrometry. The GWAS included participants from the Sex Hormones in Older Women (SHOW) study, a sub-study of the longitudinal ASPREE (ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly) randomised trial. Of the 6358 women providing a biobank sample at enrolment, 4951 unrelated women of European ancestry, not taking sex hormones, anti-oestrogens, anti-androgens or systemic glucocorticoids were included in the GWAS. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from loci identified below the genome-wide significance threshold were then tested in an independent cohort (the UK Biobank) for association with endometrial cancer risk, using logistic regression and adjusting for age, body mass index (BMI) and the top 10 genetic principal components. FINDINGS: The median age of the 4951 women included in the GWAS was 75.9 years (range 70-94.8 years). The GWAS identified four independent SNPs associated with oestrone concentrations (p < 5 × 10-8). Among them, the effect (minor) alleles rs34670419-T, rs2846729-T and rs2414098-T were associated with lower oestrone concentrations. Carrying these effect alleles was associated with lower oestrone concentrations in a dose-dependent manner. The effect allele rs56400819-A was associated with higher oestrone concentrations. When applied to UK Biobank, carrier status for rs2414098-T associated with the CYP19A1 gene which encodes the aromatase enzyme required for oestrogen synthesis was significantly associated with lower endometrial cancer risk (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.82-0.93]; p = 6.69 × 10-5 for women across all ages and aOR 0.89 [95% CI 0.83-0.96]; p = 0.003 for postmenopausal women). None of the models that included age, body mass index (BMI), the top 10 genetic principal components, parity and diabetes mellitus explained more than 7.6% of the variation in risk. INTERPRETATION: We have shown genetic regulation of oestrone concentrations in postmenopausal women, and that SNPs associated with oestrone were also associated with endometrial cancer risk, independent of BMI, parity and diabetes mellitus. Although the apparent contribution was modest, the biological influence of oestrone concentrations may be greater through conversion to oestradiol in endometrial tissue. FUNDING: The ASPREE trial was supported by the National Institute on Aging and the National Cancer Institute at the National Institutes of Health (Grant U01AG029824); the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (Grant 34047, 1127060); Monash University (Australia); and the Victorian Cancer Agency (Australia). The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank was funded by the CSIRO (Flagship Grant), the National Cancer Institute (Grant U01 AG029824) and Monash University. This analysis of sex hormones was funded by an NHMRC of Australia Project Grant (No. 1105305). SRD holds an NHMRC Investigator Grant (2016627). PL is supported by a National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank: Methodology and participant characteristics.

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health.

Symptoms of depression and risk of emergency department visits among people aged 70 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Older people experiencing depression and anxiety have higher rates of health service utilisation than others, but little is known about whether these influence their seeking of emergency care. The aim was to examine the associations between symptoms of depression and the use of emergency health care, in an Australian context, among a population of people aged 70 years and over initially free of cardiovascular disease, dementia or major physical disability. METHODS: We undertook secondary analyses of data from a large cohort of community-dwelling Australians aged [Formula: see text]70 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to compare the association of symptoms of depression (measured using the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale 10 question version, CESD at baseline) with subsequent episodes of emergency care, adjusting for physical and social factors of clinical interest. Marginal adjusted odds ratios were calculated from the logistic regression. RESULTS: Data were available for 10,837 Australian participants aged at least 70 years. In a follow-up assessment three years after the baseline assessment, 17.6% of people self-reported an episode of emergency care (attended an ED of called an emergency ambulance) in the last 12 months. Use of emergency healthcare was similar for men and women (17.8% vs. 17.4% p = 0.61). A score above the cut-off on the CESD at baseline was associated with greater use of emergency health care (OR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.11,1.64). When modelled separately, there was a greater association between a score above the cut-off on the CESD and emergency healthcare for women compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: This study is unique in demonstrating how depressive symptoms among healthy older persons are associated with subsequent increased use of emergency healthcare. Improved understanding and monitoring of mental health in primary care is essential to undertake effective healthcare planning including prevention of needing emergency care.

Late-Life Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease and its Association With Physical Disability and Dementia.

BACKGROUND: The burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is growing rapidly, including among older adults. The number of older adults is also rising with concomitantly increasing rates of age-related physical and cognitive dysfunction. However, data on whether MASLD affects physical and cognitive function in older adults is limited. As such, we aimed to identify whether prevalent MASLD influences the risk of incident physical disability or dementia in initially healthy older adults. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of participants from the ASPREE-XT cohort study, which recruited community-dwelling older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or independence-limiting functional impairment. The Fatty Liver Index (to identify MASLD) was calculated in those with complete data. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to investigate the outcomes of dementia and persistent physical disability in participants with MASLD vs those without. RESULTS: Of the 9 097 individuals included (mean age 75.1 ±â€…4.2 years; 45.0% men), 341 (3.7%) developed persistent physical disability and 370 (4.1%) developed dementia over a median follow-up of 6.4 years (IQR 5.3-7.5 years). When adjusting for known contributors including age, gender, education, comorbidity, and functional measures, MASLD was associated with an increased risk of persistent physical disability (HR 1.41 [95% CI: 1.07-1.87]) and reduced risk of incident dementia (HR 0.63 [95% CI: 0.48-0.83]). CONCLUSIONS: Prevalent MASLD is associated with reduced rates of incident dementia but increased risk of persistent physical disability in initially relatively healthy older adults. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these divergent results to allow appropriate risk stratification and counseling is important.

Associations of body habitus and its changes with incident dementia in older adults.

BACKGROUND: This study examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC), as well as their short- and long-term changes over time, with incident dementia in older individuals. METHODS: Data came from 18,837 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ years from Australia and the United States, who were relatively healthy without major cognitive impairment at enrolment. Anthropometric measures were prospectively assessed at baseline, as well as change and variability from baseline to year two (three time-points). In a subgroup (n = 11,176), self-reported weight at age 18 and 70+ years was investigated. Dementia cases satisfied DSM-IV criteria. Cox regression was used to examine the associations between anthropometric measures and incident risk of dementia. RESULTS: Compared to normal weight, an overweight (HR: 0.67, 95%CI: 0.57-0.79, p < 0.001) or obese BMI (HR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.60-0.89, p = 0.002), or a larger WC (elevated, HR: 0.71, 95%CI: 0.58-0.86, p < 0.001; highly elevated, HR: 0.65, 95%CI: 0.55-0.78, p < 0.001; relative to low) at baseline was associated with lower dementia risk. In contrast, substantial increases in BMI (>5%) over 2 years after baseline were associated with higher dementia risk (HR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.17-1.91, p = 0.001). Increased dementia risk was also seen with an underweight BMI at baseline and a 2-year BMI decrease (>5%), but these associations appeared only in the first 4 years of follow-up. Compared to normal weight at both age 18 and 70+ years, being obese at both times was associated with increased dementia risk (HR: 2.27, 95%CI: 1.22-4.24, p = 0.01), while obesity only at age 70+ years was associated with decreased risk (HR: 0.70, 95%CI: 0.51-0.95, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that long-term obesity and weight gain in later life may be risk factors for dementia. Being underweight or having substantial weight loss in old age may be early markers of pre-clinical dementia.

Sex-dependent associations of plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and mortality risk in healthy older men and women: two prospective cohort studies.

The relationship between high plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and cause and mortality are not well established in healthy older people. This study examined the associations between HDL-C levels and mortality in initially healthy older men and women. This analysis included participants from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE; n=18,668) trial and a matched cohort from the UK Biobank (UKB; n=62,849 ≥65 years). Cox regression was used to examine hazard ratios between HDL-C categories <1.03 mmol/L, 1.03-1.55 mmol/L (referent category), 1.55-2.07 mmol/L, and >2.07 mmol/L and all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality. Genetic contributions were assessed using a polygenic score for HDL-C. Among ASPREE participants (aged 75±5 years), 1836 deaths occurred over a mean follow-up of 6.3±1.8 years. In men, the highest category of HDL-C levels was associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.26-2.03), cancer (HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.96-2.00), and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.41-3.42) but not CVD mortality (HR 1.08, 95% CI 0.60-1.94). The associations were replicated among UKB participants (aged 66.9±1.5 years), including 8739 deaths over a mean follow-up of 12.7±0.8 years. There was a non-linear association between HDL-C levels and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The association between HDL-C levels and mortality was unrelated to variations in the HDL-C polygenic score. No significant association was found between HDL-C levels and mortality in women. Higher HDL-C levels are associated with increased risk from cancer and "non-cancer non-CVD" mortality in healthy older men but no such relationship was observed in women.