A hybrid transmission model for Plasmodium vivax accounting for superinfection, immunity and the hypnozoite reservoir.

Malaria is a vector-borne disease that exacts a grave toll in the Global South. The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax, the most geographically expansive agent of human malaria, is characterised by the accrual of a reservoir of dormant parasites known as hypnozoites. Relapses, arising from hypnozoite activation events, comprise the majority of the blood-stage infection burden, with implications for the acquisition of immunity and the distribution of superinfection. Here, we construct a novel model for the transmission of P. vivax that concurrently accounts for the accrual of the hypnozoite reservoir, (blood-stage) superinfection and the acquisition of immunity. We begin by using an infinite-server queueing network model to characterise the within-host dynamics as a function of mosquito-to-human transmission intensity, extending our previous model to capture a discretised immunity level. To model transmission-blocking and antidisease immunity, we allow for geometric decay in the respective probabilities of successful human-to-mosquito transmission and symptomatic blood-stage infection as a function of this immunity level. Under a hybrid approximation-whereby probabilistic within-host distributions are cast as expected population-level proportions-we couple host and vector dynamics to recover a deterministic compartmental model in line with Ross-Macdonald theory. We then perform a steady-state analysis for this compartmental model, informed by the (analytic) distributions derived at the within-host level. To characterise transient dynamics, we derive a reduced system of integrodifferential equations, likewise informed by our within-host queueing network, allowing us to recover population-level distributions for various quantities of epidemiological interest. In capturing the interplay between hypnozoite accrual, superinfection and acquired immunity-and providing, to the best of our knowledge, the most complete population-level distributions for a range of epidemiological values-our model provides insights into important, but poorly understood, epidemiological features of P. vivax.

Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review.

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Superinfection and the hypnozoite reservoir for Plasmodium vivax: a general framework.

A characteristic of malaria in all its forms is the potential for superinfection (that is, multiple concurrent blood-stage infections). An additional characteristic of Plasmodium vivax malaria is a reservoir of latent parasites (hypnozoites) within the host liver, which activate to cause (blood-stage) relapses. Here, we present a model of hypnozoite accrual and superinfection for P. vivax. To couple host and vector dynamics for a homogeneously-mixing population, we construct a density-dependent Markov population process with countably many types, for which disease extinction is shown to occur almost surely. We also establish a functional law of large numbers, taking the form of an infinite-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations that can also be recovered by coupling expected host and vector dynamics (i.e. a hybrid approximation) or through a standard compartment modelling approach. Recognising that the subset of these equations that model the infection status of the human hosts has precisely the same form as the Kolmogorov forward equations for a Markovian network of infinite server queues with an inhomogeneous batch arrival process, we use physical insight into the evolution of the latter process to write down a time-dependent multivariate generating function for the solution. We use this characterisation to collapse the infinite-compartment model into a single integrodifferential equation (IDE) governing the intensity of mosquito-to-human transmission. Through a steady state analysis, we recover a threshold phenomenon for this IDE in terms of a parameter [Formula: see text] expressible in terms of the primitives of the model, with the disease-free equilibrium shown to be uniformly asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text] and an endemic equilibrium solution emerging if [Formula: see text]. Our work provides a theoretical basis to explore the epidemiology of P. vivax, and introduces a strategy for constructing tractable population-level models of malarial superinfection that can be generalised to allow for greater biological realism in a number of directions.

Optimal Interruption of P. vivax Malaria Transmission Using Mass Drug Administration.

Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread malaria-causing parasite resulting in significant associated global morbidity and mortality. One of the factors driving this widespread phenomenon is the ability of the parasites to remain dormant in the liver. Known as 'hypnozoites', they reside in the liver following an initial exposure, before activating later to cause further infections, referred to as 'relapses'. As around 79-96% of infections are attributed to relapses from activating hypnozoites, we expect it will be highly impactful to apply treatment to target the hypnozoite reservoir (i.e. the collection of dormant parasites) to eliminate P. vivax. Treatment with radical cure, for example tafenoquine or primaquine, to target the hypnozoite reservoir is a potential tool to control and/or eliminate P. vivax. We have developed a deterministic multiscale mathematical model as a system of integro-differential equations that captures the complex dynamics of P. vivax hypnozoites and the effect of hypnozoite relapse on disease transmission. Here, we use our multiscale model to study the anticipated effect of radical cure treatment administered via a mass drug administration (MDA) program. We implement multiple rounds of MDA with a fixed interval between rounds, starting from different steady-state disease prevalences. We then construct an optimisation model with three different objective functions motivated on a public health basis to obtain the optimal MDA interval. We also incorporate mosquito seasonality in our model to study its effect on the optimal treatment regime. We find that the effect of MDA interventions is temporary and depends on the pre-intervention disease prevalence (and choice of model parameters) as well as the number of MDA rounds under consideration. The optimal interval between MDA rounds also depends on the objective (combinations of expected intervention outcomes). We find radical cure alone may not be enough to lead to P. vivax elimination under our mathematical model (and choice of model parameters) since the prevalence of infection eventually returns to pre-MDA levels.

Sulfonylpiperazine compounds prevent Plasmodium falciparum invasion of red blood cells through interference with actin-1/profilin dynamics.

With emerging resistance to frontline treatments, it is vital that new antimalarial drugs are identified to target Plasmodium falciparum. We have recently described a compound, MMV020291, as a specific inhibitor of red blood cell (RBC) invasion, and have generated analogues with improved potency. Here, we generated resistance to MMV020291 and performed whole genome sequencing of 3 MMV020291-resistant populations. This revealed 3 nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms in 2 genes; 2 in profilin (N154Y, K124N) and a third one in actin-1 (M356L). Using CRISPR-Cas9, we engineered these mutations into wild-type parasites, which rendered them resistant to MMV020291. We demonstrate that MMV020291 reduces actin polymerisation that is required by the merozoite stage parasites to invade RBCs. Additionally, the series inhibits the actin-1-dependent process of apicoplast segregation, leading to a delayed death phenotype. In vitro cosedimentation experiments using recombinant P. falciparum proteins indicate that potent MMV020291 analogues disrupt the formation of filamentous actin in the presence of profilin. Altogether, this study identifies the first compound series interfering with the actin-1/profilin interaction in P. falciparum and paves the way for future antimalarial development against the highly dynamic process of actin polymerisation.

Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk.

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934.

VIVID: A Web Application for Variant Interpretation and Visualization in Multi-dimensional Analyses.

Large-scale comparative genomics- and population genetic studies generate enormous amounts of polymorphism data in the form of DNA variants. Ultimately, the goal of many of these studies is to associate genetic variants to phenotypes or fitness. We introduce VIVID, an interactive, user-friendly web application that integrates a wide range of approaches for encoding genotypic to phenotypic information in any organism or disease, from an individual or population, in three-dimensional (3D) space. It allows mutation mapping and annotation, calculation of interactions and conservation scores, prediction of harmful effects, analysis of diversity and selection, and 3D visualization of genotypic information encoded in Variant Call Format on AlphaFold2 protein models. VIVID enables the rapid assessment of genes of interest in the study of adaptive evolution and the genetic load, and it helps prioritizing targets for experimental validation. We demonstrate the utility of VIVID by exploring the evolutionary genetics of the parasitic protist Plasmodium falciparum, revealing geographic variation in the signature of balancing selection in potential targets of functional antibodies.

A Multiscale Mathematical Model of Plasmodium Vivax Transmission.

Malaria is caused by Plasmodium parasites which are transmitted to humans by the bite of an infected Anopheles mosquito. Plasmodium vivax is distinct from other malaria species in its ability to remain dormant in the liver (as hypnozoites) and activate later to cause further infections (referred to as relapses). Mathematical models to describe the transmission dynamics of P. vivax have been developed, but most of them fail to capture realistic dynamics of hypnozoites. Models that do capture the complexity tend to involve many governing equations, making them difficult to extend to incorporate other important factors for P. vivax, such as treatment status, age and pregnancy. In this paper, we have developed a multiscale model (a system of integro-differential equations) that involves a minimal set of equations at the population scale, with an embedded within-host model that can capture the dynamics of the hypnozoite reservoir. In this way, we can gain key insights into dynamics of P. vivax transmission with a minimum number of equations at the population scale, making this framework readily scalable to incorporate more complexity. We performed a sensitivity analysis of our multiscale model over key parameters and found that prevalence of P. vivax blood-stage infection increases with both bite rate and number of mosquitoes but decreases with hypnozoite death rate. Since our mathematical model captures the complex dynamics of P. vivax and the hypnozoite reservoir, it has the potential to become a key tool to inform elimination strategies for P. vivax.

Global diversity and balancing selection of 23 leading Plasmodium falciparum candidate vaccine antigens.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene 'haplotypes' from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

Hypnozoite dynamics for Plasmodium vivax malaria: The epidemiological effects of radical cure.

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease with a devastating global impact. Plasmodium vivax is a major cause of human malaria beyond sub-Saharan Africa. Relapsing infections, driven by a reservoir of liver-stage parasites known as hypnozoites, present unique challenges for the control of P. vivax malaria. Following indeterminate dormancy periods, hypnozoites may activate to trigger relapses. Clearance of the hypnozoite reservoir through drug treatment (radical cure) has been proposed as a potential tool for the elimination of P. vivax malaria. Here, we introduce a stochastic, within-host model to jointly characterise hypnozoite and infection dynamics for an individual in a general transmission setting, allowing for radical cure. We begin by extending an existing activation-clearance model for a single hypnozoite, adapted to both short- and long-latency strains, to include drug treatment. We then embed this activation-clearance model in an epidemiological framework accounting for repeated mosquito inoculation and the administration of radical cure. By constructing an open network of infinite server queues, we derive analytic expressions for several quantities of epidemiological significance, including the size of the hypnozoite reservoir; the relapse rate; the relative contribution of relapses to the infection burden; the distribution of multiple infections; the cumulative number of recurrences over time, and the time to first recurrence following drug treatment. We derive from first principles the functional dependence between within-host and transmission parameters and patterns of blood- and liver-stage infection, whilst allowing for treatment under a mass drug administration regime. To yield population-level insights, our analytic within-host distributions can be embedded in multiscale models. Our work thus contributes to the epidemiological understanding of the effects of radical cure on P. vivax malaria.

Antibody Dynamics for Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Mathematical Model.

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease that, despite intensive control and mitigation initiatives, continues to pose an enormous public health burden. Plasmodium vivax is one of the principal causes of malaria in humans. Antibodies, which play a fundamental role in the host response to P. vivax, are acquired through exposure to the parasite. Here, we introduce a stochastic, within-host model of antibody responses to P. vivax for an individual in a general transmission setting. We begin by developing an epidemiological framework accounting for P. vivax infections resulting from new mosquito bites (primary infections), as well as the activation of dormant-liver stages known as hypnozoites (relapses). By constructing an infinite server queue, we obtain analytic results for the distribution of relapses in a general transmission setting. We then consider a simple model of antibody kinetics, whereby antibodies are boosted with each infection, but are subject to decay over time. By embedding this model for antibody kinetics in the epidemiological framework using a generalised shot noise process, we derive analytic expressions governing the distribution of antibody levels for a single individual in a general transmission setting. Our work provides a means to explore exposure-dependent antibody dynamics for P. vivax, with the potential to address key questions in the context of serological surveillance and acquired immunity.

Emergence of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum with kelch13 C580Y mutations on the island of New Guinea.

The rapid and aggressive spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum carrying the C580Y mutation in the kelch13 gene is a growing threat to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia, but there is no evidence of their spread to other regions. We conducted cross-sectional surveys in 2016 and 2017 at two clinics in Wewak, Papua New Guinea (PNG) where we identified three infections caused by C580Y mutants among 239 genotyped clinical samples. One of these mutants exhibited the highest survival rate (6.8%) among all parasites surveyed in ring-stage survival assays (RSA) for artemisinin. Analyses of kelch13 flanking regions, and comparisons of deep sequencing data from 389 clinical samples from PNG, Indonesian Papua and Western Cambodia, suggested an independent origin of the Wewak C580Y mutation, showing that the mutants possess several distinctive genetic features. Identity by descent (IBD) showed that multiple portions of the mutants' genomes share a common origin with parasites found in Indonesian Papua, comprising several mutations within genes previously associated with drug resistance, such as mdr1, ferredoxin, atg18 and pnp. These findings suggest that a P. falciparum lineage circulating on the island of New Guinea has gradually acquired a complex ensemble of variants, including kelch13 C580Y, which have affected the parasites' drug sensitivity. This worrying development reinforces the need for increased surveillance of the evolving parasite populations on the island, to contain the spread of resistance.

SNP barcodes provide higher resolution than microsatellite markers to measure Plasmodium vivax population genetics.

BACKGROUND: Genomic surveillance of malaria parasite populations has the potential to inform control strategies and to monitor the impact of interventions. Barcodes comprising large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers are accurate and efficient genotyping tools, however may need to be tailored to specific malaria transmission settings, since 'universal' barcodes can lack resolution at the local scale. A SNP barcode was developed that captures the diversity and structure of Plasmodium vivax populations of Papua New Guinea (PNG) for research and surveillance. METHODS: Using 20 high-quality P. vivax genome sequences from PNG, a total of 178 evenly spaced neutral SNPs were selected for development of an amplicon sequencing assay combining a series of multiplex PCRs and sequencing on the Illumina MiSeq platform. For initial testing, 20 SNPs were amplified in a small number of mono- and polyclonal P. vivax infections. The full barcode was then validated by genotyping and population genetic analyses of 94 P. vivax isolates collected between 2012 and 2014 from four distinct catchment areas on the highly endemic north coast of PNG. Diversity and population structure determined from the SNP barcode data was then benchmarked against that of ten microsatellite markers used in previous population genetics studies. RESULTS: From a total of 28,934,460 reads generated from the MiSeq Illumina run, 87% mapped to the PvSalI reference genome with deep coverage (median = 563, range 56-7586) per locus across genotyped samples. Of 178 SNPs assayed, 146 produced high-quality genotypes (minimum coverage = 56X) in more than 85% of P. vivax isolates. No amplification bias was introduced due to either polyclonal infection or whole genome amplification (WGA) of samples before genotyping. Compared to the microsatellite panels, the SNP barcode revealed greater variability in genetic diversity between populations and geographical population structure. The SNP barcode also enabled assignment of genotypes according to their geographic origins with a significant association between genetic distance and geographic distance at the sub-provincial level. CONCLUSIONS: High-throughput SNP barcoding can be used to map variation of malaria transmission dynamics at sub-national resolution. The low cost per sample and genotyping strategy makes the transfer of this technology to field settings highly feasible.

An Activation-Clearance Model for Plasmodium vivax Malaria.

Malaria is an infectious disease with an immense global health burden. Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread species of malaria. Relapsing infections, caused by the activation of liver-stage parasites known as hypnozoites, are a critical feature of the epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax. Hypnozoites remain dormant in the liver for weeks or months after inoculation, but cause relapsing infections upon activation. Here, we introduce a dynamic probability model of the activation-clearance process governing both potential relapses and the size of the hypnozoite reservoir. We begin by modelling activation-clearance dynamics for a single hypnozoite using a continuous-time Markov chain. We then extend our analysis to consider activation-clearance dynamics for a single mosquito bite, which can simultaneously establish multiple hypnozoites, under the assumption of independent hypnozoite behaviour. We derive analytic expressions for the time to first relapse and the time to hypnozoite clearance for mosquito bites establishing variable numbers of hypnozoites, both of which are quantities of epidemiological significance. Our results extend those in the literature, which were limited due to an assumption of collective dormancy. Our within-host model can be embedded readily in multiscale models and epidemiological frameworks, with analytic solutions increasing the tractability of statistical inference and analysis. Our work therefore provides a foundation for further work on immune development and epidemiological-scale analysis, both of which are important for achieving the goal of malaria elimination.

Isolation and Characterization of Mycoplasma mycoides Subspecies capri from Milk of Natural Goat Mastitis Cases.

Association of Mycoplasma mycoides subspecies capri (Mmc) with natural goat mastitis has been studied earlier largely by detecting the Mmc DNA using molecular methods. However, report on detection of cultivable Mmc isolates from natural goat-mastitis milk is still very rare. In this study, Mmc was isolated from milk samples (n = 171) of goats with or without clinical signs of mastitis. Mmc isolates were further characterized by biochemical and species-specific PCR methods. Intra species strain variation was also studied by 16S amplified rDNA restriction analysis (16S ARDRA). The study recovered a total of 6 Mmc isolates (3.5%). Three types of intraspecies variants among the recovered Mmc isolates were found by 16S ARDRA. The study concluded that Mmc may be an etiological agent of mycoplasmal mastitis in Indian goat herds.