Mathematical modeling of herpes simplex virus-2 suppression with pritelivir predicts trial outcomes.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models estimate the potency of antiviral agents but do not capture viral and immunologic factors that drive the natural dynamics of infection. We designed a mathematical model that synthesizes pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, and viral pathogenesis concepts to simulate the activity of pritelivir, a DNA helicase-primase inhibitor that targets herpes simplex virus. Our simulations recapitulate detailed viral kinetic shedding features in five dosage arms of a phase 2 clinical trial. We identify that in vitro estimates of median effective concentration (EC50) are lower than in vivo values for the drug. Nevertheless, pritelivir potently decreases shedding at appropriate doses based on its mode of action and long half-life. Although pritelivir directly inhibits replication in epithelial cells, our model indicates that pritelivir also indirectly limits downstream viral spread from neurons to genital keratinocytes, within genital ulcers, and from ulcer to new mucosal sites of infection. We validate our model based on its ability to predict outcomes in a subsequent trial with a higher dose. The model can therefore be used to optimize dose selection in clinical practice.

Population pharmacokinetic analysis for hydrocodone following the administration of hydrocodone bitartrate extended-release capsules.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Hydrocodone is a semi-synthetic narcotic analgesic and antitussive. Although hydrocodone products have been on the market for over 50 years, relatively little is known about its pharmacokinetics. Additionally, there are no published reports of population pharmacokinetic analyses for hydrocodone. Furthermore, current labeling of hydrocodone-containing products provides little guidance in terms of the impact of patient descriptors on the pharmacokinetics of hydrocodone. The objectives of this analysis were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model that characterizes the pharmacokinetics of hydrocodone following single and multiple oral doses of hydrocodone extended-release capsules (hydrocodone bitartrate ER capsules) in healthy subjects and patients, to examine the impact of patient descriptors on pharmacokinetic parameters and to assess the dose-proportionality of hydrocodone pharmacokinetic. METHODS: A total of 4,714 plasma hydrocodone concentrations from 220 subjects were available for this analysis. The data were extracted from seven studies (five phase 1 and two phase 2 studies). A two-compartment open mamillary model with linear elimination and a complex absorption model was used to fit the data, using NONMEM(®) version 7.1.2 software. The absorption model involved two sequential first-order absorption processes with the delay in the first process accomplished by means of multiple transit compartments. Covariate analysis was performed using standard forward selection followed by backward elimination processes. Model evaluation was performed using a prediction-corrected visual predictive check (pcVPC). RESULTS: The population estimates of apparent oral central volume of distribution and apparent oral linear clearance were 714 L and 64.4 L/h, respectively. The first absorption process was rapid. Creatinine clearance and body surface area (BSA) were statistically significant predictors of the apparent oral clearance and apparent oral volume of distribution. The pcVPC indicated that the model provided a robust and unbiased fit to the data. CONCLUSIONS: A linear model for hydrocodone elimination provided an adequate fit to the observed data over the entire dose range, which supports that hydrocodone bitartrate ER capsules exhibit dose-proportional pharmacokinetics. The formulation of hydrocodone bitartrate ER capsules results in absorption profiles that are variable across and within subjects. Despite the variability in absorption profiles, a relatively simple model provided an adequate fit to the data. Creatinine clearance and BSA were statistically significant predictors of the apparent oral clearance and apparent oral volume of distribution. Absorption characteristics of hydrocodone bitartrate ER capsules should still allow effective plasma concentrations of hydrocodone to be reached quickly and for effective concentrations to be maintained for a long period.