Long-term risk of depressive and anxiety symptoms after early bilateral oophorectomy.

OBJECTIVE: We studied the long-term risk of depressive and anxiety symptoms in women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy before menopause. DESIGN: We conducted a cohort study among all women residing in Olmsted County, MN, who underwent bilateral oophorectomy before the onset of menopause for a noncancer indication from 1950 through 1987. Each member of the bilateral oophorectomy cohort was matched by age with a referent woman from the same population who had not undergone an oophorectomy. In total, we studied 666 women with bilateral oophorectomy and 673 referent women. Women were followed for a median of 24 years, and depressive and anxiety symptoms were assessed using a structured questionnaire via a direct or proxy telephone interview performed from 2001 through 2006. RESULTS: Women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy before the onset of menopause had an increased risk of depressive symptoms diagnosed by a physician (hazard ratio = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.04-2.26, adjusted for age, education, and type of interview) and of anxiety symptoms (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.33-3.95) compared with referent women. The findings remained consistent after excluding depressive or anxiety symptoms that first occurred within 10 years after oophorectomy. The associations were greater with younger age at oophorectomy but did not vary across indications for the oophorectomy. In addition, treatment with estrogen to age 50 years in women who underwent bilateral oophorectomy at younger ages did not modify the risk. CONCLUSIONS: Bilateral oophorectomy performed before the onset of menopause is associated with an increased long-term risk of depressive and anxiety symptoms.

Fracture Incidence and Characteristics in Young Adults Aged 18 to 49 Years: A Population-Based Study.

Although fractures in both the pediatric and, especially, the elderly populations have been extensively investigated, comparatively little attention has been given to the age group in between. Thus, we used the comprehensive (inpatient and outpatient) data resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to determine incidence rates for all fractures among young adult (age range, 18 to 49 years) residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, in 2009 to 2011, and compared the distribution of fracture sites and causes in this young adult cohort with those for older residents aged 50 years or older. During the 3-year study period, 2482 Olmsted County residents aged 18 to 49 years experienced 1 or more fractures. There were 1730 fractures among 1447 men compared with 1164 among 1035 women, and the age-adjusted incidence of all fractures was 66% greater among the men (1882 [95% confidence interval 1793-1971] versus 1135 [95% CI 1069-1201] per 100,000 person-years; p < 0.001). Of all fractures, 80% resulted from severe trauma (eg, motor vehicle accidents) compared with 33% in Olmsted County residents age ≥50 years who sustained a fracture in 2009 to 2011. Younger residents (aged 18 to 49 years), when compared with older residents (aged ≥50 years), had a greater proportion of fractures of the hands and feet (40% versus 18%) with relatively few fractures observed at traditional osteoporotic fracture sites (14% versus 43%). Vertebral fractures were still more likely to be the result of moderate trauma than at other sites, especially in younger women. In conclusion, whereas pediatric and elderly populations often fracture from no more than moderate trauma, young adults, and more commonly men, suffer fractures primarily at non-osteoporotic sites due to more significant trauma. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Fragility Fractures Are Associated with an Increased Risk for Cardiovascular Events in Women and Men with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-based Study.

OBJECTIVE: Women and men with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk for fragility fractures and cardiovascular disease (CVD), each of which has been reported to contribute to excess morbidity and mortality in these patients. Fragility fractures share similar risk factors for CVD but may occur at relatively younger ages in patients with RA. We aimed to determine whether a fragility fracture predicts the development of CVD in women and men with RA. METHODS: We studied a population-based cohort with incident RA from 1955 to 2007 and compared it with age- and sex-matched non-RA subjects. We identified fragility fractures and CVD events following the RA incidence/index date, along with relevant risk factors. We used Cox models to examine the association between fractures and the development of CVD, in which fractures and CVD risk factors were modeled as time-dependent covariates. RESULTS: There were 1171 subjects (822 women; 349 men) in each of the RA and non-RA cohorts. Over followup, there were 406 and 346 fragility fractures and 286 and 225 CVD events, respectively. The overall CVD risk was increased significantly for RA subjects following a fragility fracture (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.38-2.37) but not for non-RA subjects (HR 1.18, 95% CI 0.85-1.63). Results were similar for women and men with RA. CONCLUSION: Fragility fractures in both women and men with RA are associated with an increased risk for CVD events and should raise an alert to clinicians to target these individuals for further screening and preventive strategies for CVD.

Statin Use, Diabetes Incidence and Overall Mortality in Normoglycemic and Impaired Fasting Glucose Patients.

BACKGROUND: The association between the use of statins and the risk of diabetes and increased mortality within the same population has been a source of controversy, and may underestimate the value of statins for patients at risk. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess whether statin use increases the risk of developing diabetes or affects overall mortality among normoglycemic patients and patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational cohort study of 13,508 normoglycemic patients (n = 4460; 33% taking statins) and 4563 IFG patients (n = 1865; 41% taking statin) among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, with clinical data in the Mayo Clinic electronic medical record and at least one outpatient fasting glucose test between 1999 and 2004. Demographics, vital signs, tobacco use, laboratory results, medications and comorbidities were obtained by electronic search for the period 1999-2004. Results were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards models, and the risk of incident diabetes and mortality were analyzed by survival curves using the Kaplan-Meier method. MAIN MEASURES: The main endpoints were new clinical diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and total mortality. KEY RESULTS: After a mean of 6 years of follow-up, statin use was found to be associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes in the normoglycemic (HR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.35; p = 0.007) and IFG groups (HR 1.24; 95%CI, 1.11 to 1.38; p = 0.0001). At the same time, overall mortality decreased in both normoglycemic (HR 0.70; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.80; p < 0.0001) and IFG patients (HR 0.77, 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.91; p = 0.0029) with statin use. CONCLUSION: In general, recommendations for statin use should not be affected by concerns over an increased risk of developing diabetes, since the benefit of reduced mortality clearly outweighs this small (19-24%) risk.

Voxel size dependency, reproducibility and sensitivity of an in vivo bone loading estimation algorithm.

A bone loading estimation algorithm was previously developed that provides in vivo loading conditions required for in vivo bone remodelling simulations. The algorithm derives a bone's loading history from its microstructure as assessed by high-resolution (HR) computed tomography (CT). This reverse engineering approach showed accurate and realistic results based on micro-CT and HR-peripheral quantitative CT images. However, its voxel size dependency, reproducibility and sensitivity still need to be investigated, which is the purpose of this study. Voxel size dependency was tested on cadaveric distal radii with micro-CT images scanned at 25 µm and downscaled to 50, 61, 75, 82, 100, 125 and 150 µm. Reproducibility was calculated with repeated in vitro as well as in vivo HR-pQCT measurements at 82 µm. Sensitivity was defined using HR-pQCT images from women with fracture versus non-fracture, and low versus high bone volume fraction, expecting similar and different loading histories, respectively. Our results indicate that the algorithm is voxel size independent within an average (maximum) error of 8.2% (32.9%) at 61 µm, but that the dependency increases considerably at voxel sizes bigger than 82 µm. In vitro and in vivo reproducibility are up to 4.5% and 10.2%, respectively, which is comparable to other in vitro studies and slightly higher than in other in vivo studies. Subjects with different bone volume fraction were clearly distinguished but not subjects with and without fracture. This is in agreement with bone adapting to customary loading but not to fall loads. We conclude that the in vivo bone loading estimation algorithm provides reproducible, sensitive and fairly voxel size independent results at up to 82 µm, but that smaller voxel sizes would be advantageous.

Thiazide-Associated Hypercalcemia: Incidence and Association With Primary Hyperparathyroidism Over Two Decades.

CONTEXT: Thiazide diuretics, the antihypertensive agent prescribed most frequently worldwide, are commonly associated with hypercalcemia. However, the epidemiology and clinical features are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To update the incidence of thiazide-associated hypercalcemia and clarify its clinical features. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a population-based descriptive study, Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with thiazide-associated hypercalcemia were identified through the Rochester Epidemiology Project and the Mayo Clinic Laboratory Information System from 2002-2010 and were added to the historical cohort beginning in 1992. MAIN OUTCOME: Incidence rates were adjusted to the 2010 United States white population. RESULTS: Overall, 221 Olmsted County residents were identified with thiazide-associated hypercalcemia an average of 5.2 years after initiation of treatment. Subjects were older (mean age, 67 years) and primarily women (86.4%). The incidence of thiazide-associated hypercalcemia increased after 1997 and peaked in 2006 with an annual incidence of 20 per 100,000, compared to an overall rate of 12 per 100,000 in 1992-2010. Severe hypercalcemia was not observed in the cohort despite continuation of thiazide treatment in 62.4%. Of patients discontinuing thiazides, 71% continued to have hypercalcemia. Primary hyperparathyroidism was diagnosed in 53 patients (24%), including five patients who underwent parathyroidectomy without thiazide discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients with thiazide-associated hypercalcemia have underlying primary hyperparathyroidism. Additionally, a sharp rise in thiazide-associated hypercalcemia incidence began in 1998, paralleling the increase observed in primary hyperparathyroidism in this community. Case ascertainment bias from targeted osteoporosis screening is the most likely explanation.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Natural History of Diverticulitis: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: Data on the incidence and natural history of diverticulitis are largely hospital-based and exclude the majority of diverticulitis patients, who are treated in an outpatient setting for uncomplicated diverticulitis. We assessed temporal trends in the epidemiology of diverticulitis in the general population. METHODS: Through the Rochester Epidemiology Project we reviewed the records of all individuals with a diagnosis of diverticulitis from 1980 to 2007 in Olmsted County, Minnesota, USA. RESULTS: In 1980-1989, the incidence of diverticulitis was 115/100,000 person-years, which increased to 188/100,000 in 2000-2007 (P<0.001). Incidence increased with age (P<0.001); however, the temporal increase was greater in younger people (P<0.001). Ten years after the index and second diverticulitis episodes, 22% and 55% had a recurrence, respectively. This recurrence rate was greater in younger people (hazard ratio (HR) per decade 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-0.66) and women (HR 0.68; 95% CI, 0.58-0.80). Complications were seen in 12%; this rate did not change over time. Recurrent diverticulitis was associated with a decreased risk of complications (P<0.001). Age was associated with increased risk of local (odds ratio (OR) 1.27 per decade; 95% CI, 1.04-1.57) and systemic (OR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.20-2.80) complications. Survival after diverticulitis was lower in older people (P<0.001) and men (P<0.001) and worsened over time (P<0.001). The incidence of surgery for diverticulitis did not change from 1980 to 2007. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of diverticulitis has increased by 50% in 2000-2007 compared with 1990-1999, and more so in younger people. Complications are relatively uncommon. Recurrent diverticulitis is frequent but typically uncomplicated. Younger people with diverticulitis have less severe disease, more recurrence, and better survival.

Trends in the epidemiology of osteomyelitis: a population-based study, 1969 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of osteomyelitis in the United States is largely unknown. The purpose of this study was to determine long-term secular trends in the incidence of osteomyelitis in a population-based setting. METHODS: The study population comprised 760 incident cases of osteomyelitis first diagnosed between January 1, 1969, and December 31, 2009, among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota. The complete medical records for each potential subject were reviewed to confirm the osteomyelitis diagnosis and to extract details on anatomical sites, infecting organisms, etiological risk factors, and outcomes. RESULTS: The overall age and sex-adjusted annual incidence of osteomyelitis was 21.8 cases per 100,000 person-years. The annual incidence was higher for men than for women and increased with age (p < 0.001). Rates increased with the calendar year (p < 0.001) from 11.4 cases per 100,000 person-years in the period from 1969 to 1979 to 24.4 per 100,000 person-years in the period from 2000 to 2009. The incidence remained relatively stable among children and young adults but almost tripled among individuals older than sixty years; this was partly driven by a significant increase in diabetes-related osteomyelitis from 2.3 cases per 100,000 person-years in the period from 1969 to 1979 to 7.6 cases per 100,000 person-years in the period from 2000 to 2009 (p < 0.001). Forty-four percent of cases involved Staphylococcus aureus infections. CONCLUSIONS: The reasons for the increase in osteomyelitis between 1969 and 2009 are unclear but could comprise a variety of factors, including changes in diagnosing patterns or increases in the prevalence of risk factors (e.g., diabetes) in this population.

Secular trends in the incidence of primary hyperparathyroidism over five decades (1965-2010).

Introduction of automated serum calcium measurements in the 1970s resulted in a sharp rise in primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) incidence. However, recent investigations suggest a significant rise in PHPT incidence for unclear reasons. Our objective was to update our population-based secular trends in PHPT incidence, to determine if there has been a significant rise in PHPT incidence as suggested by others, and, if possible, to identify changes in clinical practice that might be responsible. Rochester, Minnesota, residents who met the criteria for PHPT from 2002 through 2010 were identified through the medical records-linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project and added to the historical cohort beginning in 1965. Incidence rates were adjusted to the 2010 US white population. Altogether, 1142 Rochester residents have been diagnosed with PHPT since 1965, including 341 in 2002-2010. Over time, two periods of increased PHPT incidence occurred, one beginning in 1974 (121.7 per 100,000 person-years) and a second peak (86.2 per 100,000 person-years) starting in 1998. The median age of PHPT subjects has increased significantly from 55 years in 1985-1997 to 60 years of age in 1998-2010 and more patients (36%) had a parathyroidectomy in 1998-2010. Although serum calcium measurement has declined since 1996, there was a progressive increase in parathyroid hormone testing between 1994 and 2008. There was also a rise in orders for bone mineral density measurements in women since 1998, which peaked in 2003-2004. A second sharp rise in PHPT incidence occurred in our community in 1998, simultaneously with the introduction of national osteoporosis screening guidelines, Medicare coverage for bone density measurement, and new medications for the treatment of osteoporosis. Case ascertainment bias from targeted PHPT screening in patients being evaluated for osteoporosis is the most likely explanation.

A population-based study of incidence, risk factors, clinical spectrum, and outcomes of ischemic colitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about progression of ischemic colitis (IC) among unselected patients. We aimed to estimate the incidence, risk factors, and natural history of IC in a population-based cohort in Olmsted County, Minnesota. METHODS: We performed a retrospective population-based cohort and nested case-control study of IC. Each IC case was matched to 2 controls from the same population on the basis of sex, age, and closest registration number. Conditional logistic regression, the Kaplan-Meier method, and proportional hazards regression were used to assess comorbidities, estimate survival, and identify characteristics associated with survival, respectively. RESULTS: Four hundred forty-five county residents (median age, 71.6 years; 67% female) were diagnosed with IC from 1976 through 2009 and were matched with 890 controls. The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted incidence rates of IC nearly quadrupled from 6.1 cases/100,000 person-years in 1976-1980 to 22.9/100,000 in 2005-2009. The odds for IC were significantly higher among subjects with atherosclerotic diseases; odds ratios ranged from 2.6 for individuals with coronary disease to 7.9 for individuals with peripheral vascular disease. Of IC cases, 59% survived for 5 years (95% confidence interval, 54%-64%), compared with 90% of controls (95% confidence interval, 88%-92%). Age >40 years, male sex, right-sided colon involvement, concomitant small bowel involvement, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were all independently associated with mortality (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of IC increased during the past 3 decades in a population-based cohort in Minnesota. IC typically presents in older patients with multiple comorbidities and is associated with high in-hospital mortality (11.5%) and rates of surgery (17%).

Clinical course of light-chain smouldering multiple myeloma (idiopathic Bence Jones proteinuria): a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Bence Jones proteinuria is a disorder that is defined by the excretion of monoclonal light-chain protein. About 15-20% of patients with multiple myeloma secrete monoclonal light chains only, without expression of the normal immunoglobulin heavy chain, which constitutes light-chain multiple myeloma. The definition, prevalence, and progression of these premalignant phases of light-chain multiple myeloma have not been fully characterised. We aimed to identify a subset of patients with idiopathic Bence Jones proteinuria who had a high risk of progression to light-chain multiple myeloma analogous to that seen in patients with smouldering multiple myeloma. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we studied all patients seen at the Mayo Clinic (Rochester, MN, USA) within 30 days of diagnosis of idiopathic Bence Jones proteinuria between Jan 1, 1960, and June 30, 2004. Inclusion criteria were monoclonal light chain in the urine (≥0·2 g/24 h), absence of intact monoclonal immunoglobulin (M protein) in the serum, and no evidence of multiple myeloma, light-chain amyloidosis, or other related plasma-cell proliferative disorders. The primary endpoint was progression to symptomatic multiple myeloma or light-chain amyloidosis. We examined the cumulative probability of progression and the association of potential risk factors on progression rates to identify patients with a high risk of progression to multiple myeloma or light-chain amyloidosis. FINDINGS: We identified 101 patients with idiopathic Bence Jones proteinuria. During 901 total person-years of follow-up, 27 (27%) patients developed multiple myeloma and seven (7%) developed light-chain amyloidosis. The major risk factors for progression were amount of urinary excretion of M protein per 24 h, proportion of bone marrow plasma cells, presence of a markedly abnormal free-light-chain ratio (<0·01 or >100), and reduction of all three uninvolved immunoglobulins. Based on the risk of progression, monoclonal light-chain excretion of 0·5 g/24 h or greater or at least 10% bone marrow plasma cells, or both, in the absence of end-organ damage was used to define light-chain smouldering multiple myeloma. The cumulative probability of progression to active multiple myeloma or light-chain amyloidosis in patients with light-chain smouldering multiple myeloma was 27·8% (95% CI 14·2-39·2) at 5 years, 44·6% (27·9-57·4) at 10 years, and 56·5% (36·3-70·2) at 15 years. INTERPRETATION: Light-chain smouldering multiple myeloma as defined in this study is associated with a high risk of progression to symptomatic light-chain multiple myeloma, and this subset of patients needs careful observation and could benefit from clinical trials of early intervention. FUNDING: Jabbs Foundation (Birmingham, UK), US National Cancer Institute, and Henry J Predolin Foundation (Madison, WI, USA).

The ROKS nomogram for predicting a second symptomatic stone episode.

Most patients with first-time kidney stones undergo limited evaluations, and few receive preventive therapy. A prediction tool for the risk of a second kidney stone episode is needed to optimize treatment strategies. We identified adult first-time symptomatic stone formers residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, from 1984 to 2003 and manually reviewed their linked comprehensive medical records through the Rochester Epidemiology Project. Clinical characteristics in the medical record before or up to 90 days after the first stone episode were evaluated as predictors for symptomatic recurrence. A nomogram was developed from a multivariable model based on these characteristics. There were 2239 first-time adult kidney stone formers with evidence of a passed, obstructing, or infected stone causing pain or gross hematuria. Symptomatic recurrence occurred in 707 of these stone formers through 2012 (recurrence rates at 2, 5, 10, and 15 years were 11%, 20%, 31%, and 39%, respectively). A parsimonious model had the following risk factors for recurrence: younger age, male sex, white race, family history of stones, prior asymptomatic stone on imaging, prior suspected stone episode, gross hematuria, nonobstructing (asymptomatic) stone on imaging, symptomatic renal pelvic or lower-pole stone on imaging, no ureterovesicular junction stone on imaging, and uric acid stone composition. Ten-year recurrence rates varied from 12% to 56% between the first and fifth quintiles of nomogram score. The Recurrence of Kidney Stone nomogram identifies kidney stone formers at greatest risk for a second symptomatic episode. Such individuals may benefit from medical intervention and be good candidates for prevention trials.

Predictors of venous thromboembolism recurrence and bleeding among active cancer patients: a population-based cohort study.

Active cancer is the major predictor of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence, but further stratification of recurrence risk is uncertain. In a population-based cohort study of all Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with active cancer-related incident VTE during the 35-year period from 1966 to 2000 who survived 1 day or longer, we estimated VTE recurrence, bleeding on anticoagulant therapy, and survival and tested cancer and noncancer characteristics and secondary prophylaxis as predictors of VTE recurrence and bleeding, using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Of 477 patients, 139 developed recurrent VTE over the course of 1533 person-years of follow-up. The adjusted 10-year cumulative VTE recurrence rate was 28.6%. The adjusted 90-day cumulative incidence of major bleeding on anticoagulation was 1.9%. Survival was significantly worse for patients with cancer who had recurrent VTE (particularly pulmonary embolism) and with bleeding on anticoagulation. In a multivariable model, brain, lung, and ovarian cancer; myeloproliferative or myelodysplastic disorders; stage IV pancreatic cancer; other stage IV cancer; cancer stage progression; and leg paresis were associated with an increased hazard, and warfarin therapy was associated with a reduced hazard, of recurrent VTE. Recurrence rates were significantly higher for cancer patients with 1 or more vs no predictors of recurrence, suggesting these predictors may be useful for stratifying recurrence risk.

Diminished bone strength is observed in adult women and men who sustained a mild trauma distal forearm fracture during childhood.

Children and adolescents who sustain a distal forearm fracture (DFF) owing to mild, but not moderate, trauma have reduced bone strength and cortical thinning at the distal radius and tibia. Whether these skeletal deficits track into adulthood is unknown. Therefore, we studied 75 women and 75 men (age range, 20 to 40 years) with a childhood (age < 18 years) DFF and 150 sex-matched controls with no history of fracture using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) to examine bone strength (ie, failure load) by micro-finite element (µFE) analysis, as well as cortical and trabecular bone parameters at the distal radius and tibia. Level of trauma (mild versus moderate) was assigned using a validated classification scheme, blind to imaging results. When compared to sex-matched, nonfracture controls, women and men with a mild trauma childhood DFF (eg, fall from standing height) had significant reductions in failure load (p < 0.05) of the distal radius, whereas women and men with a moderate trauma childhood DFF (eg, fall while riding a bicycle) had values similar to controls. Consistent findings were observed at the distal tibia. Furthermore, women and men with a mild trauma childhood DFF had significant deficits in distal radius cortical area (p < 0.05), and significantly lower dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-derived bone density at the radius, hip, and total body regions compared to controls (all p < 0.05). By contrast, women and men with a moderate trauma childhood DFF had bone density, structure, and strength that did not differ significantly from controls. These findings in young adults are consistent with our observations in children/adolescents with DFF, and they suggest that a mild trauma childhood DFF may presage suboptimal peak bone density, structure, and strength in young adulthood. Children and adolescents who suffer mild trauma DFFs may need to be targeted for lifestyle interventions to help achieve improved skeletal health.

Predictors of excess mortality after fracture: a population-based cohort study.

To determine the extent to which excess mortality after fractures attributable to particular causes at specific skeletal sites can be predicted using data about all medical diagnoses, we conducted a historical cohort study among 1991 Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents aged ≥ 50 years who experienced any fracture in 1989 to 1991 and who were followed passively for up to 22 years for death from any cause. We used a machine learning approach, gradient boosting machine (GBM) modeling, to determine whether the comorbid conditions present at the time of fracture and those that arose subsequently could, in aggregate, identify patients at the greatest increased risk of death. During 21,867 person-years of follow-up, 1245 deaths were observed when 1061 were expected (standardized mortality ratio, 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.2). Patients presented with a median history of 26 comorbid conditions each as assessed by the Clinical Classification Software system and 57 each over the total duration of follow-up. Using all available information, the excess deaths could be predicted with good accuracy (c-index ≥ 0.80) in 89% of the GBM models built for patients with different types of fracture; in one-third of the models, the c-index was ≥ 0.90. The conditions most prominent in the GBM prediction models were also reflected in the specific causes of death that were elevated, suggesting the influence of confounding on the relationship. However, the predominant comorbid conditions were mainly those responsible for mortality in the general population, rather than the specific diseases most closely associated with secondary osteoporosis. To reduce long-term deaths in the fracture population as a whole, a more general approach to the fracture patient is indicated.

Cortical porosity identifies women with osteopenia at increased risk for forearm fractures.

Most fragility fractures arise among the many women with osteopenia, not the smaller number with osteoporosis at high risk for fracture. Thus, most women at risk for fracture assessed only by measuring areal bone mineral density (aBMD) will remain untreated. We measured cortical porosity and trabecular bone volume/total volume (BV/TV) of the ultradistal radius (UDR) using high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography, aBMD using densitometry, and 10-year fracture probability using the country-specific fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in 68 postmenopausal women with forearm fractures and 70 age-matched community controls in Olmsted County, MN, USA. Women with forearm fractures had 0.4 standard deviations (SD) higher cortical porosity and 0.6 SD lower trabecular BV/TV. Compact-appearing cortical porosity predicted fracture independent of aBMD; odds ratio (OR) = 1.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10­3.33). In women with osteoporosis at the UDR, cortical porosity did not distinguish those with fractures from those without because high porosity was present in 92% and 86% of each group, respectively. By contrast, in women with osteopenia at the UDR, high porosity of the compact-appearing cortex conferred an OR for fracture of 4.00 (95% CI 1.15­13.90). In women with osteoporosis, porosity is captured by aBMD, so measuring UDR cortical porosity does not improve diagnostic sensitivity. However, in women with osteopenia, cortical porosity was associated with forearm fractures.

Lumbar trabecular bone mineral density distribution in patients with and without vertebral fractures: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The proportion of load transmitted through the lumbar neural arch increases with aging, spinal degeneration, and lordosis, effectively shielding the lumbar vertebral bodies from load. This stress shielding may contribute to bone loss in the vertebral body, leading to increased fracture risk. To test his hypothesis, we performed a study to determine if vertebral body fractures were associated with a higher neural arch/vertebral body volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) ratio. METHODS: Trabecular vBMD was calculated by quantitative CT in the L3 vertebral body and neural arch (pars interarticularis) of 36 women with vertebral compression fractures and 39 controls. Neural arch/vertebral body vBMD ratio was calculated, and its relationship to fracture status was determined using linear regression models adjusted for age and body mass index. RESULTS: Vertebral body trabecular vBMD was lower in fracture cases as compared to controls (mean ± SD, 49.0 ± 36.0 vs. 87.5 ± 36.8 mg/cm(3), respectively; P < 0.001), whereas trabecular vBMD of the neural arch was similar (96.1 ± 57.6 in cases vs. 118.2 ± 57.4 mg/cm(3) in controls; P = 0.182). The neural arch/vertebral body vBMD ratio was significantly greater in the fracture group than in controls (2.31 ± 1.07 vs. 1.44 ± 0.57, respectively; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: These results support the hypothesis that stress shielding is a contributor to vertebral body bone loss and may increase fracture risk. Although further studies are needed, there may be a role for interventions that can shift vertebral loading in the spine to help prevent fracture.

Bone strength and structural deficits in children and adolescents with a distal forearm fracture resulting from mild trauma.

Although distal forearm fractures (DFFs) are common during childhood and adolescence, it is unclear whether they reflect underlying skeletal deficits or are simply a consequence of the usual physical activities, and associated trauma, during growth. Therefore, we examined whether a recent DFF, resulting from mild or moderate trauma, is related to deficits in bone strength and cortical and trabecular bone macro- and microstructure compared with nonfracture controls. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography was used to assess micro-finite element-derived bone strength (ie, failure load) and to measure cortical and trabecular bone parameters at the distal radius and tibia in 115 boys and girls with a recent (<1 year) DFF and 108 nonfracture controls aged 8 to 15 years. Trauma levels (mild versus moderate) were assigned based on a validated classification scheme. Compared with sex-matched controls, boys and girls with a mild-trauma DFF (eg, fall from standing height) showed significant deficits at the distal radius in failure load (-13% and -11%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had higher ("worse") fall load-to-strength ratios (both +10%; p < 0.05 for boys and p = 0.06 for girls). In addition, boys and girls with a mild-trauma DFF had significant reductions in cortical area (-26% and -23%, respectively; p < 0.01) and cortical thickness (-14% and -13%, respectively; p < 0.01) compared with controls. The skeletal deficits in the mild-trauma DFF patients were generalized, as similar changes were present at the distal tibia. By contrast, both boys and girls with a moderate-trauma DFF (eg, fall from a bicycle) had virtually identical values for all of the measured bone parameters compared with controls. In conclusion, DFFs during growth have two distinct etiologies: those owing to underlying skeletal deficits leading to fractures with mild trauma versus those owing to more significant trauma in the setting of normal bone strength.

Trends in fracture incidence: a population-based study over 20 years.

To assess recent trends in fracture incidence from all causes at all skeletal sites, we used the comprehensive (inpatient and outpatient) data resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to estimate rates for Olmsted County, MN, USA, residents in 2009 to 2011 compared with similar data from 1989 to 1991. During the 3-year study period, 2009 to 2011, 3549 residents ≥50 years of age experienced 5244 separate fractures. The age- and sex-adjusted (to the 2010 US white population) incidence of any fracture was 2704 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2614 to 2793) and that for all fractures was 4017 per 100,000 (95% CI 3908 to 4127). Fracture incidence increased with age in both sexes, but age-adjusted rates were 49% greater among the women. Overall, comparably adjusted fracture incidence rates increased by 11% (from 3627 to 4017 per 100,000 person-years; p = 0.008) between 1989 to 1991 and 2009 to 2011. This was mainly attributable to a substantial increase in vertebral fractures (+47% for both sexes combined), which was partially offset by a decline in hip fractures (-25%) among the women. There was also a 26% reduction in distal forearm fractures among the women; an increase in distal forearm fractures among men aged 50 years and over was not statistically significant. The dramatic increase in vertebral fractures, seen in both sexes and especially after age 75 years, was attributable in part to incidentally diagnosed vertebral fractures. However, the fall in hip fracture incidence, observed in most age groups, continues the steady decline observed among women in this community since 1950. More generally, these data indicate that the dramatic increases in the incidence of fractures at many skeletal sites that were observed decades ago have now stabilized.