Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.

Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

pyPESTO: a modular and scalable tool for parameter estimation for dynamic models.

SUMMARY: Mechanistic models are important tools to describe and understand biological processes. However, they typically rely on unknown parameters, the estimation of which can be challenging for large and complex systems. pyPESTO is a modular framework for systematic parameter estimation, with scalable algorithms for optimization and uncertainty quantification. While tailored to ordinary differential equation problems, pyPESTO is broadly applicable to black-box parameter estimation problems. Besides own implementations, it provides a unified interface to various popular simulation and inference methods. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: pyPESTO is implemented in Python, open-source under a 3-Clause BSD license. Code and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pypesto).

Mini-batch optimization enables training of ODE models on large-scale datasets.

Quantitative dynamic models are widely used to study cellular signal processing. A critical step in modelling is the estimation of unknown model parameters from experimental data. As model sizes and datasets are steadily growing, established parameter optimization approaches for mechanistic models become computationally extremely challenging. Mini-batch optimization methods, as employed in deep learning, have better scaling properties. In this work, we adapt, apply, and benchmark mini-batch optimization for ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, thereby establishing a direct link between dynamic modelling and machine learning. On our main application example, a large-scale model of cancer signaling, we benchmark mini-batch optimization against established methods, achieving better optimization results and reducing computation by more than an order of magnitude. We expect that our work will serve as a first step towards mini-batch optimization tailored to ODE models and enable modelling of even larger and more complex systems than what is currently possible.

Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities.

BACKGROUND: Over 1 year since the first reported case, the true COVID-19 burden in Ethiopia remains unknown due to insufficient surveillance. We aimed to investigate the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 among front-line hospital workers and communities in Ethiopia. METHODS: We did a population-based, longitudinal cohort study at two tertiary teaching hospitals involving hospital workers, rural residents, and urban communities in Jimma and Addis Ababa. Hospital workers were recruited at both hospitals, and community participants were recruited by convenience sampling including urban metropolitan settings, urban and semi-urban settings, and rural communities. Participants were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had provided written informed consent, and were willing to provide blood samples by venepuncture. Only one participant per household was recruited. Serology was done with Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid assay in three consecutive rounds, with a mean interval of 6 weeks between tests, to obtain seroprevalence and incidence estimates within the cohorts. FINDINGS: Between Aug 5, 2020, and April 10, 2021, we did three survey rounds with a total of 1104 hospital workers and 1229 community residents participating. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among hospital workers increased strongly during the study period: in Addis Ababa, it increased from 10·9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8·3-13·8) in August, 2020, to 53·7% (44·8-62·5) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 2223 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 1785-2696); in Jimma Town, it increased from 30·8% (95% CrI 26·9-34·8) in November, 2020, to 56·1% (51·1-61·1) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 3810 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 3149-4540). Among urban communities, an almost 40% increase in seroprevalence was observed in early 2021, with incidence rates of 1622 per 100 000 person-weeks (1004-2429) in Jimma Town and 4646 per 100 000 person-weeks (2797-7255) in Addis Ababa. Seroprevalence in rural communities increased from 18·0% (95% CrI 13·5-23·2) in November, 2020, to 31·0% (22·3-40·3) in March, 2021. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 spread in Ethiopia has been highly dynamic among hospital worker and urban communities. We can speculate that the greatest wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections is currently evolving in rural Ethiopia, and thus requires focused attention regarding health-care burden and disease prevention. FUNDING: Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts; Germany Ministry of Education and Research; EU Horizon 2020 programme; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and Volkswagenstiftung.

COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modeling.

Epidemiological models are widely used to analyze the spread of diseases such as the global COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. However, all models are based on simplifying assumptions and often on sparse data. This limits the reliability of parameter estimates and predictions. In this manuscript, we demonstrate the relevance of these limitations and the pitfalls associated with the use of overly simplistic models. We considered the data for the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, as an example, and perform parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and model selection for a range of established epidemiological models. Amongst others, we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, parameter and prediction profile calculation algorithms. Our results show that parameter estimates and predictions obtained for several established models on the basis of reported case numbers can be subject to substantial uncertainty. More importantly, estimates were often unrealistic and the confidence/credibility intervals did not cover plausible values of critical parameters obtained using different approaches. These findings suggest, amongst others, that standard compartmental models can be overly simplistic and that the reported case numbers provide often insufficient information for obtaining reliable and realistic parameter values, and for forecasting the evolution of epidemics.

PEtab-Interoperable specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.