Prediction of cardiovascular events in older patients with hypertension in primary care: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Accurate risk stratification identifying patients with hypertension at risk of future cardiovascular disease in primary care would be desirable. AIM: To investigate the association between elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on an electrocardiogram (ECG), and LVH on an echocardiogram and the development of cardiovascular events (CVEs), especially heart failure and all-cause mortality (ACM), in a primary care population with hypertension without symptoms of heart failure. DESIGN AND SETTING: A prospective cohort study in five Dutch general practices between 2010-2012 and 2020. METHOD: In total, 530 patients (aged 60-85 years) underwent laboratory testing, ECGs, and echocardiograms at baseline. The incidence of new CVEs and ACM at up to 9 years' follow-up was recorded by data extraction from the digital information systems. RESULTS: Among the 530 participants, 31 (5.8%) developed a coronary event, 44 (8.3%) a cerebrovascular accident, 53 (10.0%) atrial fibrillation, 23 (4.3%) heart failure, and 66 (12.5%) died. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for relevant Framingham covariates, showed that elevated BNP increased the risk of ACM, CVEs, and specifically heart failure independently by 44% (hazard ratio [HR] 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.94, P = -0.017), 45% (HR 1.45, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.82, P = 0.002), and 288% (HR 3.88, 95% CI = 2.13 to 7.10, P<0.001), respectively. LVH on ECG increased the risk of ACM independently by 108% (HR 2.08, 95% CI = 1.14 to 3.81, P = 0.017). LVH either on an ECG and/or echocardiogram increased the risk of heart failure independently by 309% (HR 4.09, 95% CI = 1.34 to 12.49, P = 0.014). CONCLUSION: In primary care patients with hypertension, BNP seems to be an important marker predicting future CVEs, especially heart failure, as well as all-cause mortality.

Competing risk analysis of cardiovascular disease risk in breast cancer patients receiving a radiation boost.

BACKGROUND: Thoracic radiotherapy may damage the myocardium and arteries, increasing cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Women with a high local breast cancer (BC) recurrence risk may receive an additional radiation boost to the tumor bed. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate the CVD risk and specifically ischemic heart disease (IHD) in BC patients treated with a radiation boost, and investigated whether this was modified by age. METHODS: We identified 5260 BC patients receiving radiotherapy between 2005 and 2016 without a history of CVD. Boost data were derived from hospital records and the national cancer registry. Follow-up data on CVD events were obtained from Statistics Netherlands until December 31, 2018. The relation between CVD and boost was evaluated with competing risk survival analysis. RESULTS: 1917 (36.4%) received a boost. Mean follow-up was 80.3 months (SD37.1) and the mean age 57.8 years (SD10.7). Interaction between boost and age was observed for IHD: a boost was significantly associated with IHD incidence in patients younger than 40 years but not in patients over 40 years. The subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) was calculated for ages from 25 to 75 years, showing a sHR range from 5.1 (95%CI 1.2-22.6) for 25-year old patients to sHR 0.5 (95%CI 0.2-1.02) for 75-year old patients. CONCLUSION: In patients younger than 40, a radiation boost is significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD. In absolute terms, the increased risk was low. In older patients, there was no association between boost and CVD risk, which is likely a reflection of appropriate patient selection.