Sputum and tongue swab molecular testing for the in-home diagnosis of tuberculosis in unselected household contacts: a cost and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Background: Delayed and missed diagnosis are a persistent barrier to tuberculosis control, partly driven by limitations associated with sputum collection and an unmet need for decentralized testing. Household contact investigation with point-of-care testing of non-invasive specimens like tongue swabs are hitherto undescribed and may be a cost-effective solution to enable community-based active case finding. Methods: In-home, molecular point-of-care testing was conducted using sputum and tongue specimens collected from all household contacts of confirmed tuberculosis cases. A health economic assessment was executed to estimate and compare the cost and cost-effectiveness of different in-home, point-of-care testing strategies. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios of strategies utilizing different combination testing algorithms using sputum and/or tongue swab specimens were compared. Findings: The total implementation cost of delivering the standard of care for a 2-year period was $84 962. Strategies integrating in-home point-of-care testing ranged between $87 844 - $93 969. The cost-per-test for in-home, POC testing of sputum was the highest at $20·08 per test. Two strategies, Point-of-Care Sputum Testing and Point-of-Care Combined Sputum and Individual Tongue Swab Testing were the most cost-effective with ICERs of $543·74 and $547·29 respectively, both below a $2,760 willingness-to-pay threshold. Interpretation: An in-home, point-of-care molecular testing strategy utilizing combination testing of tongue swabs and sputum specimens would incur an additional 10.6% program cost, compared to SOC, over a 2-year period. The increased sample yield from tongue swabs combined with immediate result notification following, in-home POC testing would increase the number of new TB cases detected and linked to care by more than 800%. Research in context: Evidence before this study: We searched PubMed for original research published between January 1, 1950 and June 30, 2024 that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of in-home POC molecular testing, as part of HCI strategies for tuberculosis. PubMed search terms used included ["household contact investigation" OR "household contact tracing"] AND "tuberculosis" AND "cost-effectiveness". The search revealed 8 studies, of which one was removed as HCIs were leveraged for the provision of short course preventative therapy and not tuberculosis testing. None of the studies were conducted in South Africa. All seven remaining studies relied on a hub-and-spoke model of sputum collection and transportation with sputum tested at a centralized laboratory facility. Although active case finding strategies like HCIs are endorsed by the WHO to improve early case detection and treatment initiation, limited research has been done to assess its cost-effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries.Added value of this study: To our knowledge, this is the first example of in-home molecular point-of-care (POC) testing as part of HCI. The use of primary data to estimate and compare the incremental cost effectiveness of different combination, in-home testing strategies utilizing alternative sample types equips policy makers with a selection of strategy options to choose from. The tradeoff between sample types with high collection yield and those with increased accuracy becomes evident in the economic analysis, highlighting the need to consider both yield and accuracy in effective clinical decision making and use-case development. The success of in-home, POC tongue swab testing of all contacts, irrespective of symptom presentation shows great promise for universal testing programs.Implications of all available evidence: Results from our economic modeling provide evidence in support for the integration of in-home, POC tuberculosis (TB) testing during HCI. The use of less invasive tongue swab samples to increase sample yield in the absence of sputum expectoration highlights the value of combination testing strategies. Immediate result notification resulting from rapid, in-home POC testing shows great promise for increasing early case detection and improving treatment uptake. In-home, POC testing strategies, when incorporated into HCI could curb ongoing community transmission and reduce the overall burden of TB. Considerations for adopting novel POC testing strategies in future active case finding programs like HCI should strongly be considered. Summary: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of in-home, point-of-care TB testing of household contacts. The findings indicate that combined testing strategies using tongue swab and sputum specimens could significantly increase TB case detection, with modest additional program costs.

Transgender-Specific Differentiated HIV Service Delivery Models in the South African Public Primary Health Care System (Jabula Uzibone): Protocol for an Implementation Study.

BACKGROUND: Almost 60% of transgender people in South Africa are living with HIV. Ending the HIV epidemic will require that transgender people successfully access HIV prevention and treatment. However, transgender people often avoid health services due to facility-based stigma and lack of availability of gender-affirming care. Transgender-specific differentiated service delivery (TG-DSD) may improve engagement and facilitate progress toward HIV elimination. Wits RHI, a renowned South African research institute, established 4 TG-DSD demonstration sites in 2019, with funding from the US Agency for International Development. These sites offer unique opportunities to evaluate the implementation of TG-DSD and test their effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: The Jabula Uzibone study seeks to assess the implementation, effectiveness, and cost of TG-DSD for viral suppression and prevention-effective adherence. METHODS: The Jabula Uzibone study collects baseline and 12-month observation checklists at 8 sites and 6 (12.5%) key informant interviews per site at 4 TG-DSD and 4 standard sites (n=48). We seek to enroll ≥600 transgender clients, 50% at TG-DSD and 50% at standard sites: 67% clients with HIV and 33% clients without HIV per site type. Participants complete interviewer-administered surveys quarterly, and blood is drawn at baseline and 12 months for HIV RNA levels among participants with HIV and tenofovir levels among participants on pre-exposure prophylaxis. A subset of 30 participants per site type will complete in-depth interviews at baseline and 12 months: 15 participants will be living with HIV and 15 participants will be HIV negative. Qualitative analyses will explore aspects of implementation; regression models will compare viral suppression and prevention-effective adherence by site type. Structural equation modeling will test for mediation by stigma and gender affirmation. Microcosting approaches will estimate the cost per service user served and per service user successfully treated at TG-DSD sites relative to standard sites, as well as the budget needed for a broader implementation of TG-DSD. RESULTS: Funded by the US National Institutes of Mental Health in April 2022, the study was approved by the Human Research Ethics Committee at University of Witwatersrand in June 2022 and the Duke University Health System Institutional Review Board in June 2023. Enrollment began in January 2024. As of July 31, 2024, a total of 593 transgender participants have been enrolled: 348 are living with HIV and 245 are HIV negative. We anticipate baseline enrollment will be complete by August 31, 2024, and the final study visit will take place no later than August 2025. CONCLUSIONS: Jabula Uzibone will provide data to inform HIV policies and practices in South Africa and generate the first evidence for implementation of TG-DSD in sub-Saharan Africa. Study findings may inform the use of TG-DSD strategies to increase care engagement and advance global progress toward HIV elimination goals. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/64373.

The long wait for long-acting HIV prevention and treatment formulations.

Large randomised studies of new long-acting medications for the prevention and treatment of HIV have shown high effectiveness and acceptability. Although modelling studies indicate these agents could be fundamental in HIV elimination, coordination of their entry into health-care markets is crucial, especially in low-income and middle-income countries with high HIV prevalence, where coordination is low despite UNAIDS flagging that global HIV targets will not be met. Research and implementation projects are tightly controlled by originator pharmaceutical companies, with only a small percentage of eligible people living with or affected by HIV benefiting from these projects. WHO, financial donors, manufacturers, and governments need to consider urgent coordinated action from stakeholders worldwide, akin to the successful introduction of dolutegravir into treatment programmes across low-income and middle-income countries. Without this immediate coordination, large-scale access to long-acting agents for HIV will be delayed, potentially extending into the 2030s. This delay is unacceptable considering the established global HIV targets.

The cost of adding rapid screening for diabetes, hypertension, and COVID-19 to COVID-19 vaccination queues in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 51% of total mortality in South Africa, with a rising burden of hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Incorporating NCDs and COVID-19 screening into mass activities such as COVID-19 vaccination programs could offer significant long-term benefits for early detection interventions. However, there is limited knowledge of the associated costs and resources required. We evaluated the cost of integrating NCD screening and COVID-19 antigen rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) into a COVID-19 vaccination program. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cost analysis at three public sector primary healthcare clinics and one academic hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa, conducting vaccinations. Participants were assessed for eligibility and recruited during May-Dec 2022. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using a bottom-up micro-costing approach and reported in 2022 USD. RESULTS: Of the 1,376 enrolled participants, 240 opted in to undergo a COVID-19 Ag-RDT, and none tested positive for COVID-19. 138 (10.1%) had elevated blood pressure, with 96 (70%) having no prior HTN diagnosis. 22 (1.6%) were screen-positive for DM, with 12 (55%) having no prior diagnosis. The median cost per person screened for NCDs was $1.70 (IQR: $1.38-$2.49), respectively. The average provider cost per person found to have elevated blood glucose levels and blood pressure was $157.99 and $25.19, respectively. Finding a potentially new case of DM and HTN was $289.65 and $36.21, respectively. For DM and DM + HTN screen-positive participants, diagnostic tests were the main cost driver, while staff costs were the main cost driver for DM- and HTN screen-negative and HTN screen-positive participants. The median cost per Ag-RDT was $5.95 (IQR: $5.55-$6.25), with costs driven mainly by test kit costs. CONCLUSIONS: We show the cost of finding potentially new cases of DM and HTN in a vaccine queue, which is an essential first step in understanding the feasibility and resource requirements for such initiatives. However, there is a need for comparative economic analyses that include linkage to care and retention data to fully understand this cost and determine whether opportunistic screening should be added to general mass health activities.

Costs of the COVID-19 vaccination programme: estimates from the West Rand district of South Africa, 2021/2022.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 vaccination programme in South Africa was rolled out in February 2021 via five delivery channels- hospitals, primary healthcare (PHC), fixed, temporary, and mobile outreach channels. In this study, we estimated the financial and economic costs of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the first year of roll out from February 2021 to January 2022 and one month prior, in one district of South Africa, the West Rand district. METHODS: Financial and economic costs were estimated from a public payer's perspective using top-down and ingredient-based costing approaches. Data were collected on costs incurred at the national level and from the West Rand district. Total cost and cost per COVID-19 vaccine dose were estimated for each of the five delivery channels implemented in the district. In addition, we estimated vaccine delivery costs which we defined as total cost exclusive of vaccine procurement costs. RESULTS: Total financial and economic costs were estimated at US$8.5 million and US$12 million, respectively; with a corresponding cost per dose of US$15.31 (financial) and US$21.85 (economic). The two biggest total cost drivers were vaccine procurement which contributed 73% and 51% to total financial and economic costs respectively, and staff time which contributed 10% and 36% to total financial and economic costs, respectively. Total vaccine delivery costs were estimated at US$2.1 million (financial) and US$5.7 million (economic); and the corresponding cost per dose at US$3.84 (financial) and US$10.38 (economic). Vaccine delivery cost per dose (financial/economic) was estimated at US$2.93/12.84 and US$2.45/5.99 in hospitals and PHCs, respectively, and at US$7.34/20.29, US$3.96/11.89 and US$24.81/28.76 in fixed, temporary and mobile outreach sites, respectively. Staff time was the biggest economic cost driver for vaccine delivery in PHCs and hospitals while per diems and staff time were the biggest economic cost drivers for vaccine delivery in the three outreach delivery channels. CONCLUSION: This study offers insights for budgeting and planning of COVID-19 vaccine delivery in South Africa's public healthcare system. It also provides input for cost-effectiveness analyses to guide future strategies for maximizing vaccination coverage in the country.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in South Africa beginning in February 2021. In this study we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in its first two years of implementation. METHOD: We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. The study was conducted from a public payer's perspective over two time-horizons - nine months (February to November 2021) and twenty-four months (February 2021 to January 2023). Health outcomes were estimated from a disease transmission model parameterised with data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths and were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1600 per DALY averted during the first study time horizon. The corresponding ICER for the second study period was estimated at US$1300 per DALY averted. When 85% of all excess deaths during these periods were included in the analysis, ICERs in the first and second study periods were estimated at US$1070 and US$660 per DALY averted, respectively. In the PSA, almost 100% of simulations fell below the estimated opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold for South Africa (US$2300 DALYs averted). COVID-19 vaccination programme cost per dose had the greatest impact on the ICERs. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme represented good value for money in the first two years of rollout.

Future HIV epidemic trajectories in South Africa and projected long-term consequences of reductions in general population HIV testing: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: After successful intensive interventions to rapidly increase HIV awareness, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and viral suppression, HIV programmes in eastern and southern Africa are considering scaling back of some interventions, such as widespread general population HIV testing. We aimed to model whether scaling back of general population HIV testing in South Africa could result in a resurgence of the HIV epidemic or substantial slowing of declines in HIV incidence, resulting in increased long-term ART. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the Thembisa 4.5 model (a deterministic compartmental model of HIV transmission in South Africa) to project the South African HIV epidemic to 2100 assuming the continuation of 2022 epidemiological conditions and HIV programme implementation. We assessed how implementing reductions in general population HIV testing services in 2025 (while maintaining antenatal, symptom-based, and risk-based testing modalities and other HIV prevention services at 2022 levels) would affect HIV incidence and prevalence among people aged 15-49 years, the year in which incidence would reach one per 1000 people aged 15-49 years (the threshold for virtual elimination of HIV), and associated costs, as well as numbers of additional new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. We also modelled the effects of delaying reductions in general population testing services by 5-year increments. Additionally, we modelled the potential effects of reductions in general population testing services in combination with increases or decreases in ART interruption rates (ie, the annual rate at which people who are on ART discontinue ART) and condom usage in 2025-35. FINDINGS: If general population HIV testing services and the HIV risk environment of 2022 were maintained, we projected that HIV incidence would steadily decline from 4·95 (95% CI 4·40-5·34) per 1000 population in 2025 to 0·14 (0·05-0·31) per 1000 in 2100, and that the so-called virtual elimination threshold of less than one new infection per 1000 population per year would be reached in 2055 (95% CI 2051-2060). Scaling back of general population HIV testing services by 25%, 50%, or 75% in 2025 delayed time to reaching the virtual elimination threshold by 5, 13, or 35 years, respectively, whereas complete cessation of general population testing would result in the threshold not being attained by 2100. Although the incidence of HIV continued to fall when general HIV testing services were reduced, our modelling suggested that, with reductions of between 25% and 100%, between 396 000 (95% CI 299 000-474 000) and 2·50 million (1·97 million-2·98 million) additional HIV infections and between 115 000 (94 000-135 000) and 795 000 (670 000-926 000) additional AIDS-related deaths would occur between 2025 and 2075, depending on the extent of reduction in testing. Delaying reductions in general population HIV testing services for 5-25 years mitigated some of these effects. HIV testing accounted for only 5% of total programmatic costs at baseline; reducing testing moderately reduced short-term total annual costs, but increased annual costs after 25 years. Increases in ART interruption and reductions in condom usage were projected to slow the decline in incidence and increase the coverage of general HIV testing services required to control transmission but did not cause rapid resurgence in HIV infections. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling suggests that scaling back of general population HIV testing would not result in a resurgence of HIV infections, but would delay attainment of incidence-reduction targets and result in long-term increases in HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths, and costs (via increased need for ART provision). HIV programmes need to balance short-term potential resource savings with long-term epidemic control objectives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Costs of distributing HIV self-testing kits in Eswatini through community and workplace models.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the implementation and running costs of an HIV self-testing (HIVST) distribution program in Eswatini. HIVST kits were delivered through community-based and workplace models using primary and secondary distribution. Primary clients could self-test onsite or offsite. This study presents total running economic costs of kit distribution per model between April 2019 and March 2020, and estimates average cost per HIVST kit distributed, per client self-tested, per client self-tested reactive, per client confirmed positive, and per client initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: Distribution data and follow-up phone interviews were analysed to estimate implementation outcomes. Results were presented for each step of the care cascade using best-case and worst-case scenarios. A top-down incremental cost-analysis was conducted from the provider perspective using project expenditures. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored effects of economic and epidemiological parameters on average costs. RESULTS: Nineteen thousand one hundred fifty-five HIVST kits were distributed to 13,031 individuals over a 12-month period, averaging 1.5 kits per recipient. 83% and 17% of kits were distributed via the community and workplace models, respectively. Clients reached via the workplace model were less likely to opt for onsite testing than clients in the community model (8% vs 29%). 6% of onsite workplace testers tested reactive compared to 2% of onsite community testers. Best-case scenario estimated 17,458 (91%) clients self-tested, 633 (4%) received reactive-test results, 606 (96%) linked to confirmatory testing, and 505 (83%) initiated ART. Personnel and HIVST kits represented 60% and 32% of total costs, respectively. Average costs were: per kit distributed US$17.23, per client tested US$18.91, per client with a reactive test US$521.54, per client confirmed positive US$550.83, and per client initiating ART US$708.60. Lower rates for testing, reactivity, and linkage to care in the worst-case scenario resulted in higher average costs along the treatment cascade. CONCLUSION: This study fills a significant evidence gap regarding costs of HIVST provision along the client care cascade in Eswatini. Workplace and community-based distribution of HIVST accompanied with effective linkage to care strategies can support countries to reach cascade objectives.

Substantial but spatially heterogeneous progress in male circumcision for HIV prevention in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition by 60%. Programmes to provide VMMCs for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Traditional circumcision is also a long-standing male coming-of-age ritual, but practices vary considerably across populations. Accurate estimates of circumcision coverage by age, type, and time at subnational levels are required for planning and delivering VMMCs to meet targets and evaluating their impacts on HIV incidence. METHODS: We developed a Bayesian competing risks time-to-event model to produce region-age-time-type specific probabilities and coverage of male circumcision with probabilistic uncertainty. The model jointly synthesises data from household surveys and health system data on the number of VMMCs conducted. We demonstrated the model using data from five household surveys and VMMC programme data to produce estimates of circumcision coverage for 52 districts in South Africa between 2008 and 2019. RESULTS: Nationally, in 2008, 24.1% (95% CI: 23.4-24.8%) of men aged 15-49 were traditionally circumcised and 19.4% (18.9-20.0%) were medically circumcised. Between 2010 and 2019, 4.25 million VMMCs were conducted. Circumcision coverage among men aged 15-49 increased to 64.0% (63.2-64.9%) and medical circumcision coverage to 42% (41.3-43.0%). Circumcision coverage varied widely across districts, ranging from 13.4 to 86.3%. The average age of traditional circumcision ranged between 13 and 19 years, depending on local cultural practices. CONCLUSION: South Africa has made substantial, but heterogeneous, progress towards increasing medical circumcision coverage. Detailed subnational information on coverage and practices can guide programmes to identify unmet need to achieve national and international targets.

Voluntary medical male circumcision reduces the risk of male HIV acquisition. Programmes to provide circumcisions for HIV prevention have been introduced in sub-Saharan African countries with high HIV burden. Estimates of circumcision coverage are needed for planning and delivering circumcisions to meet targets and evaluate their impacts on HIV incidence. We developed a model to integrate date from both household surveys and health systems on the number of circumcisions conducted, and applied it to understand how the practices and coverage of circumcision are changing in South Africa. National circumcision coverage increased considerably between 2008 and 2019, however, there remains a substantial subnational variation across districts and age groups. Further progress is needed to reach national and international targets.

The potential benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir in pregnant and breastfeeding women and their infants.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) in sub-Saharan Africa have high HIV incidence rates and associated risk of vertical transmission to their infants. Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and injectable PrEP (long-acting cabotegravir, or CAB-LA) can potentially reduce this HIV transmission, but population-level impacts are uncertain. METHODS: We extended a previously developed model of HIV and PrEP in South Africa to allow for variable PrEP duration and preference in PBW. We considered three potential scenarios for PrEP provision to PBW: oral PrEP only, CAB-LA only, and allowing oral/CAB-LA choice, with uptake and retention assumptions informed by South African data, each compared with a 'base' scenario without PrEP for PBW. RESULTS: Without PrEP for PBW, the model estimates 1.31 million new infections will occur between 2025 and 2035 in South African adults and children, including 100 000 in PBW, 16 800 in infants at/before birth, and 35 200 in children through breastmilk. In the oral PrEP-only scenario, these numbers would reduce by 1.2% (95% CI: 0.7-1.7%), 8.6% (4.8-12.9%), 4.0% (2.1-5.8%), and 5.3% (3.0-8.2%) respectively. In the CAB-LA-only scenario, the corresponding reductions would be 6.1% (2.9-9.6%), 41.2% (19.8-65.0%), 12.6% (6.0-19.4%), and 29.5% (13.9-46.8%), respectively, and in the oral/CAB-LA choice scenario, similar reductions would be achieved [5.6% (3.4-8.0%), 39% (23.4-55.9%), 12.4% (7.4-16.8%) and 27.6% (16.5-39.9%) respectively]. CONCLUSION: CAB-LA has the potential to be substantially more effective than oral PrEP in preventing HIV acquisition in PBW and vertical transmission, and can also modestly reduce HIV incidence at a population level.

Integration of point-of-care screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension into the COVID-19 vaccine programme in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: South Africa grapples with a substantial burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), particularly type 2 diabetes (diabetes) and hypertension. However, these conditions are often underdiagnosed and poorly managed, further exacerbated by the strained primary healthcare (PHC) system and the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Integrating NCD screening with large-scale healthcare initiatives, such as COVID-19 vaccination campaigns, offers a potential solution, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We investigated the feasibility and effectiveness of this integration. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted at four government health facilities in Johannesburg, South Africa. NCD screening was incorporated into the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Participants underwent COVID-19 rapid tests, blood glucose checks, blood pressure assessments, and anthropometric measurements. Those with elevated blood glucose or blood pressure values received referrals for diagnostic confirmation at local PHC centers. RESULTS: Among 1,376 participants screened, the overall diabetes prevalence was 4.1%, combining previously diagnosed cases and newly identified elevated blood glucose levels. Similarly, the hypertension prevalence was 19.4%, comprising pre-existing diagnoses and newly detected elevated blood pressure cases. Notably, 46.1% of participants displayed waist circumferences indicative of metabolic syndrome, more prevalent among females. Impressively, 7.8% of all participants screened were potentially newly diagnosed with diabetes or hypertension. Approximately 50% of individuals with elevated blood glucose or blood pressure successfully linked to follow-up care within four weeks. CONCLUSION: Our study underscores the value of utilizing even brief healthcare interactions as opportunities for screening additional health conditions, thereby aiding the identification of previously undiagnosed cases. Integrating NCD screenings into routine healthcare visits holds promise, especially in resource-constrained settings. Nonetheless, concerted efforts to strengthen care linkage are crucial for holistic NCD management and control. These findings provide actionable insights for addressing the NCD challenge and improving healthcare delivery in LMICs.

The cost of adding rapid screening for diabetes, hypertension, and COVID-19 to COVID-19 vaccination queues in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for 51% of total mortality in South Africa, with a rising burden of hypertension (HTN) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Incorporating NCD and COVID-19 screening into mass activities such as COVID-19 vaccination programs could offer significant long-term benefits for early detection interventions. However, there is limited knowledge of the associated costs and resources required. We evaluated the cost of integrating NCD screening and COVID-19 antigen rapid diagnostic testing (Ag-RDT) into a COVID-19 vaccination program. Methods: We conducted a prospective cost analysis at three public sector primary healthcare clinics and one academic hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa, conducting vaccinations. Participants were assessed for eligibility and recruited during May-Dec 2022. Costs were estimated from the provider perspective using a bottom-up micro-costing approach and reported in 2022 USD. Results: Of the 1,376 enrolled participants, 240 opted in to undergo a COVID-19 Ag-RDT, and none tested positive for COVID-19. 138 (10.1%) had elevated blood pressure, with 96 (70%) having no prior HTN diagnosis. 22 (1.6%) were screen-positive for DM, with 12 (55%) having no prior diagnosis. The mean and median costs per person screened for NCDs were $2.53 (SD: 3.62) and $1.70 (IQR: $1.38-$2.49), respectively. The average provider cost per person found to have elevated blood glucose levels and blood pressure was $157.99 and $25.19, respectively. Finding a new case of DM and HTN was $289.65 and $36.21, respectively. For DM and DM + HTN screen-positive participants, diagnostic tests were the main cost driver, while staff costs were the main cost driver for - and HTN screen-positive and screen-negative participants. The mean and median cost per Ag-RDT was $6.13 (SD: 0.87) and $5.95 (IQR: $5.55-$6.25), with costs driven mainly by test kit costs. Conclusions: We show the cost of finding new cases of DM and HTN in a vaccine queue, which is an essential first step in understanding the feasibility and resource requirements for such initiatives. However, there is a need for comparative economic analyses that include linkage to care and retention data to fully understand this cost and determine whether opportunistic screening should be added to general mass health activities.

A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa. METHODS: The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a "status quo" scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time. RESULTS: For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children. CONCLUSIONS: While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies.

Integration of point-of-care screening for type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension with COVID-19 rapid antigen screening in Johannesburg, South Africa.

AIMS: We sought to evaluate the yield and linkage-to-care for diabetes and hypertension screening alongside a study assessing the use of rapid antigen tests for COVID-19 in taxi ranks in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS: Participants were recruited from Germiston taxi rank. We recorded results of blood glucose (BG), blood pressure (BP), waist circumference, smoking status, height, and weight. Participants who had elevated BG (fasting ≥7.0; random ≥11.1mmol/L) and/or BP (diastolic ≥90 and systolic ≥140mmHg) were referred to their clinic and phoned to confirm linkage. RESULTS: 1169 participants were enrolled and screened for elevated BG and elevated BP. Combining participants with a previous diagnosis of diabetes (n = 23, 2.0%; 95% CI:1.3-2.9%) and those that had an elevated BG measurement (n = 60, 5.2%; 95% CI:4.1-6.6%) at study enrollment, we estimated an overall indicative prevalence of diabetes of 7.1% (95% CI:5.7-8.7%). When combining those with known hypertension at study enrollment (n = 124, 10.6%; 95% CI:8.9-12.5%) and those with elevated BP (n = 202; 17.3%; 95% CI:15.2-19.5%), we get an overall prevalence of hypertension of 27.9% (95% CI:25.4-30.1%). Only 30.0% of those with elevated BG and 16.3% of those with elevated BP linked-to-care. CONCLUSION: By opportunistically leveraging existing COVID-19 screening in South Africa to screen for diabetes and hypertension, 22% of participants received a potential new diagnosis. We had poor linkage-to-care following screening. Future research should evaluate options for improving linkage-to-care, and evaluate the large-scale feasibility of this simple screening tool.

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting.

BACKGROUND: The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. METHODS: Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. RESULTS: Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. CONCLUSION: The SACMC's models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout.

What will it take for an injectable ARV to change the face of the HIV epidemic in high-prevalence countries? Considerations regarding drug costs and operations.

INTRODUCTION: The proven effectiveness of injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) is higher than that of any other HIV prevention intervention ever trialled or implemented, surpassing medical male circumcision, condoms and combination antiretroviral treatment. Based on our own analyses and experience with the South African oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programme, we review the supply and demand side factors that would need to be in place for a successful rollout of CAB-LA, and delineate lessons for the launch of other long-acting and extended delivery (LAED) antiretroviral drugs. DISCUSSION: On the supply side, CAB-LA will have to be offered at a price that makes the drug affordable and cost-effective to low- and middle-income countries, especially those with high HIV prevalence. An important factor in lowering prices is a guaranteed market volume, which in turn necessitates the involvement of large funders, such as PEPFAR and the Global Fund, and a fairly rapid scale-up of the drug. Such a scale-up would have to involve speedy regulatory approval and WHO pre-qualification, swift integration of CAB-LA into national guidelines and planning for large enough manufacturing capacity, including the enabling of local manufacture. On the demand side, existing demand for HIV prevention products has to be harnessed and additional demand created, which will be aided by designing CAB-LA programmes at the primary healthcare or community level, and involving non-traditional outlets, such as private pharmacies and doctors' practices. CONCLUSIONS: CAB-LA could be the game changer for HIV prevention that we have been hoping for, and serve as a useful pilot for other LAEDs. A successful rollout would involve building markets of a guaranteed size; lowering the drug's price to a level possibly below the cost of production, while also lowering the cost of production altogether; harnessing, creating and sustaining demand for the product over the long term, wherever possible, in national programmes rather than single demonstration sites; and establishing and maintaining manufacturing capacity and supply chains. For this, all parties have to work together-including originator and generic manufacturers, donor organizations and other large funders, and the governments of low- and middle-income countries, in particular those with high HIV prevalence.

Secondary distribution of HIV self-test kits by HIV index and antenatal care clients: implementation and costing results from the STAR Initiative in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Partner-delivered HIV self-testing kits has previously been highlighted as a safe, acceptable and effective approach to reach men. However, less is known about its real-world implementation in reaching partners of people living with HIV. We evaluated programmatic implementation of partner-delivered self-testing through antenatal care (ANC) attendees and people newly diagnosed with HIV by assessing use, positivity, linkage and cost per kit distributed. METHODS: Between April 2018 and December 2019, antenatal care (ANC) clinic attendees and people or those newly diagnosed with HIV clients across twelve clinics in three cities in South Africa were given HIVST kits (OraQuick Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody Test, OraSure Technologies) to distribute to their sexual partners. A follow-up telephonic survey was administered to all prior consenting clients who were successfully reached by telephone to assess primary outcomes. Incremental economic costs of the implementation were estimated from the provider's perspective. RESULTS: Fourteen thousand four hundred seventy-three HIVST kits were distributed - 10,319 (71%) to ANC clients for their male partner and 29% to people newly diagnosed with HIV for their partners. Of the 4,235 ANC clients successfully followed-up, 82.1% (3,475) reportedly offered HIVST kits to their male partner with 98.1% (3,409) accepting and 97.6% (3,328) using the kit. Among ANC partners self-testing, 159 (4.8%) reported reactive HIVST results, of which 127 (79.9%) received further testing; 116 (91.3%) were diagnosed with HIV and 114 (98.3%) initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART). Of the 1,649 people newly diagnosed with HIV successfully followed-up; 1,312 (79.6%) reportedly offered HIVST kits to their partners with 95.8% (1,257) of the partners accepting and 95.9% (1,206) reported that their partners used the kit. Among these index partners, 297 (24.6%) reported reactive HIVST results of which 261 (87.9%) received further testing; 260 (99.6%) were diagnosed with HIV and 258 (99.2%) initiated ART. The average cost per HIVST distributed in the three cities was US$7.90, US$11.98, and US$14.81, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Partner-delivered HIVST in real world implementation was able to affordably reach many male partners of ANC attendees and index partners of people newly diagnosed with HIV in South Africa. Given recent COVID-19 related restrictions, partner-delivered HIVST provides an important strategy to maintain essential testing services.

Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa.

There are limited published data within sub-Saharan Africa describing hospital pathways of COVID-19 patients hospitalized. These data are crucial for the parameterisation of epidemiological and cost models, and for planning purposes for the region. We evaluated COVID-19 hospital admissions from the South African national hospital surveillance system (DATCOV) during the first three COVID-19 waves between May 2020 and August 2021. We describe probabilities and admission into intensive care units (ICU), mechanical ventilation, death, and lengths of stay (LOS) in non-ICU and ICU care in public and private sectors. A log-binomial model was used to quantify mortality risk, ICU treatment and mechanical ventilation between time periods, adjusting for age, sex, comorbidity, health sector and province. There were 342,700 COVID-19-related hospital admissions during the study period. Risk of ICU admission was 16% lower during wave periods (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 0.84 [0.82-0.86]) compared to between-wave periods. Mechanical ventilation was more likely during a wave overall (aRR 1.18 [1.13-1.23]), but patterns between waves were inconsistent, while mortality risk in non-ICU and ICU were 39% (aRR 1.39 [1.35-1.43]) and 31% (aRR 1.31 [1.27-1.36]) higher during a wave, compared to between-wave periods, respectively. If patients had had the same probability of death during waves vs between-wave periods, we estimated approximately 24% [19%-30%] of deaths (19,600 [15,200-24,000]) would not have occurred over the study period. LOS differed by age (older patients stayed longer), ward type (ICU stays were longer than non-ICU) and death/recovery outcome (time to death was shorter in non-ICU); however, LOS remained similar between time periods. Healthcare capacity constraints as inferred by wave period have a large impact on in-hospital mortality. It is crucial for modelling health systems strain and budgets to consider how input parameters related to hospitalisation change during and between waves, especially in settings with severely constrained resources.

The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa.

In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government. By the end of the first wave, the NCEM had developed into a stochastic, spatially-explicit compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 across the 52 districts of South Africa. The model adopted a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed structure that accounted for the clinical profile of SARS-COV-2 (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and avenues of treatment access (outpatient, and hospitalisation in non-ICU and ICU wards). Between end-March and early September 2020, the model was updated 11 times with four key releases to generate new sets of projections and scenario analyses to be shared with planners in the national and provincial Departments of Health, the National Treasury and other partners. Updates to model structure included finer spatial granularity, limited access to treatment, and the inclusion of behavioural heterogeneity in relation to the adoption of Public Health and Social Measures. These updates were made in response to local data and knowledge and the changing needs of the planners. The NCEM attempted to incorporate a high level of local data to contextualise the model appropriately to address South Africa's population and health system characteristics that played a vital role in producing and updating estimates of resource needs, demonstrating the importance of harnessing and developing local modelling capacity.