Early COVID-19 pandemic modeling: Three compartmental model case studies from Texas, USA.

The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in late 2019 and spread globally in early 2020. Initial reports suggested the associated disease, COVID-19, produced rapid epidemic growth and caused high mortality. As the virus sparked local epidemics in new communities, health systems and policy makers were forced to make decisions with limited information about the spread of the disease. We developed a compartmental model to project COVID-19 healthcare demands that combined information regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics from international reports with local COVID-19 hospital census data to support response efforts in three Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas, USA: Austin-Round Rock, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, and Beaumont-Port Arthur. Our model projects that strict stay-home orders and other social distancing measures could suppress the spread of the pandemic. Our capacity to provide rapid decision-support in response to emerging threats depends on access to data, validated modeling approaches, careful uncertainty quantification, and adequate computational resources.

Cellular events of acute, resolving or progressive COVID-19 in SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates.

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 associated immune pathology is crucial to develop pan-effective vaccines and treatments. Here we investigate the immune events from the acute state up to four weeks post SARS-CoV-2 infection, in non-human primates (NHP) with heterogeneous pulmonary pathology. We show a robust migration of CD16 expressing monocytes to the lungs occurring during the acute phase, and we describe two subsets of interstitial macrophages (HLA-DR+CD206-): a transitional CD11c+CD16+ cell population directly associated with IL-6 levels in plasma, and a long-lasting CD11b+CD16+ cell population. Trafficking of monocytes is mediated by TARC (CCL17) and associates with viral load measured in bronchial brushes. We also describe associations between disease outcomes and high levels of cell infiltration in lungs including CD11b+CD16hi macrophages and CD11b+ neutrophils. Accumulation of macrophages is long-lasting and detectable even in animals with mild or no signs of disease. Interestingly, animals with anti-inflammatory responses including high IL-10:IL-6 and kynurenine to tryptophan ratios show less severe illness. Our results unravel cellular mechanisms of COVID-19 and suggest that NHP may be appropriate models to test immune therapies.

Multi-element composition of soils of seasonal wetlands across North Dakota, USA.

The main goal of this study was to assess if the soils of wetlands of different condition varied in terms of element composition. The rationale was that compared to wetlands of good condition, wetlands of poor condition-which in the region have typically been disturbed by agricultural activities, are lower in biodiversity and have fewer native species-would have been altered in their physical and chemical soil characteristics. This in turn would have altered the element composition of the soils. The concentrations of about 50 elements in the topsoil of 43 seasonal wetlands of varying condition, as measured by plant community based assessments, across North Dakota were determined. Organic matter content of the soils increased as condition increased, and it was the most important variable explaining 40 % of variation in the concentrations of elements. This can be partly explained by binding of elements to organic matter (S, Se) and for most other elements (that bind mostly to the inorganic fraction) by displacement by organic matter. The biogeochemistry of S is further implicated in the distribution of Ca, most likely via formation of insoluble gypsum (calcium sulfate).

Mechanical instability as a cause of gait disturbance in high-grade spondylolisthesis: a pre- and postoperative three-dimensional gait analysis.

Mechanical instability of the spinopelvic junction is a suspected cause of abnormal gait in high-grade spondylolisthesis. Computerized three-dimensional gait analysis was performed on a 10-year-old with grade III spondylolisthesis at L-5. Preoperatively, the gait pattern was characterized by posterior pelvic tilt, decreased hip flexion, increased knee flexion, and decreased stride length and walking speed. All temporal and kinematic parameters of gait normalized after laminectomy and instrumented, in situ arthrodesis (L-4-S-1). The absence of any neurologic abnormalities on preoperative imaging, intraoperative somatosensory-evoked potentials (SSEP) monitoring, and nerve-root exploration, together with the observed improvement after stabilization of the spinopelvic junction, suggests a mechanical basis for the gait changes in high-grade spondylolisthesis.

The duration of non-rodent toxicity studies for pharmaceuticals. International Conference on Harmonication (ICH).

At the present time, there are no uniform standards for the duration of non-rodent chronic toxicity studies. The European Union (EU) requires a 6-month non-rodent study. In Japan, a 6-month study is sufficient for most, but not all, compounds. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) maintains its standard duration of 12 months for non-rodents, with 6-month studies accepted for some clinical indications on a case-by-case basis. To achieve harmonization on the duration of non-rodent toxicity studies, each member regulatory region (EU, U.S., and Japan) of the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH) collected non-rodent studies with significant new toxicological findings that had occurred after 6 months. An ICH expert working group was organized that included representatives from the regulatory authorities of each ICH region, to jointly review all available case studies for the purpose of arriving at a consensus on the best duration time for non-rodent toxicity studies. Eighteen case studies were identified and evaluated (16 original cases plus 2 additional FDA cases); most of the toxicities identified fell into the following categories: (1) toxicities identified at 6 months; (2) toxicities observed at 12 months, which were absent or considered isolated and not noteworthy findings at 6 months; (3) drug-related deaths or morbidity that occurred between 6 and 12 months, with a pattern of toxicity that permitted the interpolation of findings to an intermediate interval between 6 and 12 months; and (4) a shift in the dose response for toxicity with increasing duration of drug exposure. Of the 18 cases evaluated, 11 supported a study-duration of 9-12 months, 4 supported a duration of 12 months, and the 3 remaining cases indicated that a 6-month study would be adequate. The working group concluded that there was sufficient evidence to support a harmonized 9-month duration for non-rodent toxicity studies, which would be applicable for most categories of pharmaceuticals.

Caregiving and developmental factors differentiating young at-risk urban children showing resilient versus stress-affected outcomes: a replication and extension.

This study tested hypotheses from an organizational-developmental model for childhood resilience. In this model resilience reflects a child's mastery of age-salient objectives, in the face of substantial adversity, by drawing on internal and external resources that enhance processes of adaptation specific to each developmental stage. Interviews were conducted with parents of 122 7- to 9-year-old urban children exposed to multiple risk factors, 69 classified as resilient and 53 as maladjusted. Consistent with predictions generated by the model: (1) characteristics of a child's caregiving system and early development differentiated children with resilient and stress-affected adaptations; and (2) variables reflecting emotionally responsive, competent parenting were direct, proximal predictors of resilient status and mediators of other caregiver resources such as education, mental health, and relational history. Identified predictors of resilient status, including competent parenting and caregiver psychosocial resources, largely replicated findings from a prior study with sociodemographically comparable 9- to 12-year-old children.

Toxicity associated with high-dose cytosine arabinoside and total body irradiation as conditioning for allogeneic bone marrow transplantation.

Seventy-three patients with hematological cancers undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) were evaluated for event-free survival (EFS) and toxicity. All received 36 g/m2 cytosine arabinoside (HDA) and 1200 cGy fractionated total body irradiation (TBI). We assessed the association of EFS and toxicities with the following risk factors; age, gender, diagnosis, initial relapse risk and patient-donor histocompatibility. The EFS probability is 33% at 800 days post-BMT. Twenty-six patients (36%) died of toxicity within 100 days and 14 (19%) have relapsed. EFS was inversely associated with age (P < 0.0001) and initial relapse risk (P = 0.007). The risk of pulmonary (P = 0.023) and hepatic toxicity (P = 0.011) increased with age. Diagnosis other than acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) was a risk factor (P = 0.015) for graft-versus-host disease (GVHD); and fewer ALL patients died from toxicity (P = 0.014). The probability of sepsis within 100 days post-BMT correlated (P = 0.007) with initial relapse risk. We conclude: (1) the lower EFS and greater pulmonary and hepatic toxicity associated with increasing age indicate a need for less toxic regimens that maintain high antileukemic efficacy for older patients; (2) the high GVHD and sepsis rates seen in certain categories of patients indicate a need for careful definition of eligibility criteria for this still highly toxic treatment.

Porous ceramics as bone graft substitutes in long bone defects: a biomechanical, histological, and radiographic analysis.

Three porous ceramic bone graft materials were compared with regard to their ability to heal a 2.5 cm defect created surgically in a bilateral canine radius model. The ceramic materials were analyzed at 12 and 24 weeks after surgery and included tricalcium phosphate, hydroxyapatite, and collagen hydroxyapatite, which contained a mixture of 35% tricalcium phosphate and 65% hydroxyapatite with added collagen. Each material was evaluated alone and with added bone marrow aspirate. All the implants were compared with a graft of autogenous cancellous bone in the contralateral radius. Biomechanical testing and radiographic evaluation revealed that the addition of bone marrow aspirate was essential for tricalcium phosphate and hydroxyapatite to achieve results comparable with those of cancellous bone. Collagen hydroxyapatite performed well without the addition of bone marrow, although the addition of marrow did have a positive effect. Further qualitative radiographic and histological analysis demonstrated that tricalcium phosphate was the only ceramic that showed any sign of degradation at 24 weeks. This observed degradation proved to be an important factor in evaluating radiographs because the radiodensity of collagen hydroxyapatite and hydroxyapatite interfered with the determination of radiographic union. At 24 weeks, tricalcium phosphate with bone marrow was the material that performed most like cancellous bone. In this study, the biomechanical and radiographic parameters of tricalcium phosphate with bone marrow were roughly comparable with those of cancellous bone at 12 and 24 weeks. Tricalcium phosphate was the only implant that showed significant evidence of degradation at 24 weeks by both histological and radiographic evaluations, and this degradation took place only after a degree of mechanical competence necessary for weight-bearing was achieved.

Clinical significance of the solitary functioning adrenal gland.

To assess the compensatory functional and anatomic changes in the remaining adrenal cortex after unilateral adrenalectomy or in the unaffected adrenal in patients with unilateral adrenal destruction by neoplasm, 17 patients with a single, functioning adrenal gland and normal indices of adrenocortical function, nine after adrenalectomy and eight with a unilateral, destructive adrenal lesion were studied with 131I-6 beta-iodomethyl-19-norcholesterol (NP-59) scintigraphy and computed tomography. Adrenal masses with a mean (+/- s.d.) diameter of 2.8 +/- 1.0 cm; (range 1-4 cm; 95% confidence interval (Cl), 2.5-3.1 cm) were identified by computed tomography in seven of nine patients in the remaining adrenal cortex at variable times (6.1 +/- 5.9 y; range 0.5-19 y) after unilateral adrenalectomy. Mean (+/- s.e.m.) NP-59 uptake was elevated (p less than 0.01) in both adrenalectomy and adrenal destruction groups, mean uptake (+/- s.e.m.) was 0.32% +/- 0.04% administered dose (95% Cl, 0.24%-0.4% administered dose) as compared to normal (0.16% +/- 0.05% administered dose, 95% Cl, 0.06%-0.26% administered dose). The remaining adrenal cortex may be anatomically abnormal after unilateral adrenalectomy and demonstrate compensatory, increased NP-59 uptake in the presence of overall, normal adrenocortical function.

Principles for effective surveys of hunger and malnutrition in the United States.

To be effective, the information derived from a survey must be used to make decisions that affect policies and programs. This paper discusses why scientifically sound surveys may not be effective and vice versa. Effectiveness depends on the information being relevant to the decision-maker's understanding of the problem to be solved. To the extent that science contributes to both understanding the problem and providing the information for a decision, the survey will be scientific and effective. The measurement of malnutrition and barriers to communication are not at present the major obstacles to effective scientific surveys relative to hunger and malnutrition in the United States. Rather, the obstacles seem to be poor scientific conceptualization and measurement of hunger, on the one hand, and poor sampling techniques for malnutrition, on the other hand. These frontiers of knowledge have implications for science and policy beyond surveys. The challenge for the American Institute of Nutrition is to recruit the scientific skills need to understand hunger and identify pockets of malnutrition and their causes--scientific skills that go beyond those traditionally associated with nutrition research.

Staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome.

Staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome is a rarely reported superficial desquamating eruption found in patients who have otherwise toxic conditions. Its early recognition and treatment can be lifesaving. A case of staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome is reported in a patient with chronic liver failure.

Nutrition monitoring: interface of science and policy.

Information collected through nutrition monitoring efforts is an essential component in the process of effectively translating scientific evidence into public policy. This paper reviews the uses of nutrition monitoring data for policy and program decisions, describes recent progress to strengthen the National Nutrition Monitoring System, and outlines challenges that lie ahead in the nutrition monitoring arena.

Quantitative multiple sclerosis plaque assessment with magnetic resonance imaging. Its correlation with clinical parameters, evoked potentials, and intra-blood-brain barrier IgG synthesis.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the cerebrum, cerebellum, brain stem, and upper cervical cord was performed in 62 individuals with clinically definite chronic, progressive multiple sclerosis (MS). The total area of MRI-demonstrated lesions was measured from film enlargements for each region using an interactive image analysis system. While the MRI was abnormal in 60 (97%) of 62 patients, the visual-evoked potentials in 51 (85%) of 60 patients, the brain stem auditory-evoked potentials (BAEPs) in 24 (46%) of 52 patients, and the somatosensory-evoked potentials (SSEPs) in 45 (89%) of 54 patients, an abnormal intra-blood-brain barrier (BBB) IgG synthesis rate, IgG oligoclonal bands, or both were found in all 62 patients. The total area of MRI abnormality in the cerebrum was significantly correlated only with the intra-BBB IgG synthesis rate, abnormal visual-evoked potentials, impaired performance on the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), and one test of standing duration in the quantitative examination of neurologic function (QENF). The brain stem lesion area correlated with the Kurtzke expanded disability status scale and brain stem functional systems score, the ambulation index, abnormal BAEPs, and impaired performance on the SDMT as well as multiple tests of upper and lower extremity function in the QENF. The cerebellar lesion area correlated with impaired performance on the SDMT and primarily upper extremity testing in the QENF.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

AIDS: clinical and ethical issues on a psychiatric unit.

Using a case illustration, this paper describes how AIDS has affected psychiatric practice on an inpatient unit. The clinical, ethical and administrative issues are discussed from a multi-disciplinary perspective. The issues are discussed as 1. clinical issues (diagnostic and management), 2. effects on ward milieu, 3. staff issues, 4. family counselling and discharge planning and 5. administrative issues. It is important for inpatient staff to discuss these issues and develop clinical guidelines and administrative procedures that will help staff provide the highest level of care possible. Because every patient is potentially an HIV carrier, many of the solutions developed around AIDS related concerns should apply to all patients on a psychiatric ward.