Surveillance to achieve malaria elimination in eastern Myanmar: a 7-year observational study.

BACKGROUND: The collection and utilization of surveillance data is essential in monitoring progress towards achieving malaria elimination, in the timely response to increases in malaria case numbers and in the assessment of programme functioning. This paper describes the surveillance activities used by the malaria elimination task force (METF) programme which operates in eastern Myanmar, and provides an analysis of data collected from weekly surveillance, case investigations, and monitoring and evaluation of programme performance. METHODS: This retrospective analysis was conducted using data collected from a network of 1250 malaria posts operational between 2014 and 2021. To investigate changes in data completeness, malaria post performance, malaria case numbers, and the demographic details of malaria cases, summary statistics were used to compare data collected over space and time. RESULTS: In the first 3 years of the METF programme, improvements in data transmission routes resulted in a 18.9% reduction in late reporting, allowing for near real-time analysis of data collected at the malaria posts. In 2020, travel restrictions were in place across Karen State in response to COVID-19, and from February 2021 the military coup in Myanmar resulted in widescale population displacement. However, over that period there has been no decline in malaria post attendance, and the majority of consultations continue to occur within 48 h of fever onset. Case investigations found that 43.8% of cases travelled away from their resident village in the 3 weeks prior to diagnosis and 36.3% reported never using a bed net whilst sleeping in their resident village, which increased to 72.2% when sleeping away from their resident village. Malaria post assessments performed in 82.3% of the METF malaria posts found malaria posts generally performed to a high standard. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance data collected by the METF programme demonstrate that despite significant changes in the context in which the programme operates, malaria posts have remained accessible and continue to provide early diagnosis and treatment contributing to an 89.3% decrease in Plasmodium falciparum incidence between 2014 and 2021.

Distance matters: barriers to antenatal care and safe childbirth in a migrant population on the Thailand-Myanmar border from 2007 to 2015, a pregnancy cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal care and skilled childbirth services are important interventions to improve maternal health and lower the risk of poor pregnancy outcomes and mortality. A growing body of literature has shown that geographic distance to clinics can be a disincentive towards seeking care during pregnancy. On the Thailand-Myanmar border antenatal clinics serving migrant populations have found high rates of loss to follow-up of 17.4%, but decades of civil conflict have made the underlying factors difficult to investigate. Here we perform a comprehensive study examining the geographic, demographic, and health-related factors contributing to loss to follow-up. METHODS: Using patient records we conducted a spatial and epidemiological analysis looking for predictors of loss to follow-up and pregnancy outcomes between 2007 and 2015. We used multivariable negative binomial regressions to assess for associations between distance travelled to the clinic and birth outcomes (loss to follow-up, pregnancy complications, and time of first presentation for antenatal care.) RESULTS: We found distance travelled to clinic strongly predicts loss to follow-up, miscarriage, malaria infections in pregnancy, and presentation for antenatal care after the first trimester. People lost to follow-up travelled 50% farther than people who had a normal singleton childbirth (a ratio of distances (DR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4 - 1.5). People with pregnancies complicated by miscarriage travelled 20% farther than those who did not have miscarriages (DR: 1.2; CI 1.1-1.3), and those with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in pregnancy travelled 60% farther than those without P. falciparum (DR: 1.6; CI: 1.6 - 1.8). People who delayed antenatal care until the third trimester travelled 50% farther compared to people who attended in the first trimester (DR: 1.5; CI: 1.4 - 1.5). CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides the first evidence of the complex impact of geography on access to antenatal services and pregnancy outcomes in the rural, remote, and politically complex Thailand-Myanmar border region. These findings can be used to help guide evidence-based interventions to increase uptake of maternal healthcare both in the Thailand-Myanmar region and in other rural, remote, and politically complicated environments.

Human movement patterns of farmers and forest workers from the Thailand-Myanmar border.

Background: Human travel patterns play an important role in infectious disease epidemiology and ecology. Movement into geographic spaces with high transmission can lead to increased risk of acquiring infections. Pathogens can also be distributed across the landscape via human travel. Most fine scale studies of human travel patterns have been done in urban settings in wealthy nations. Research into human travel patterns in rural areas of low- and middle-income nations are useful for understanding the human components of epidemiological systems for malaria or other diseases of the rural poor. The goal of this research was to assess the feasibility of using GPS loggers to empirically measure human travel patterns in this setting, as well as to quantify differing travel patterns by age, gender, and seasonality among study participants. Methods: In this pilot study we recruited 50 rural villagers from along the Myanmar-Thailand border to carry GPS loggers for the duration of a year. The GPS loggers were programmed to take a time-stamped reading every 30 minutes. We calculated daily movement ranges and multi-day trips by age and gender. We incorporated remote sensing data to assess patterns of days and nights spent in forested or farm areas, also by age and gender. Results: Our study showed that it is feasible to use GPS devices to measure travel patterns, though we had difficulty recruiting women and management of the project was relatively intensive. We found that older adults traveled farther distances than younger adults and adult males spent more nights in farms or forests. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that further work along these lines would be feasible in this region. Furthermore, the results from this study are useful for individual-based models of disease transmission and land use.