Avian influenza overview December 2023-March 2024.

Between 2 December 2023 and 15 March 2024, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) outbreaks were reported in domestic (227) and wild (414) birds across 26 countries in Europe. Compared to previous years, although still widespread, the overall number of HPAI virus detections in birds was significantly lower, among other reasons, possibly due to some level of flock immunity in previously affected wild bird species, resulting in reduced contamination of the environment, and a different composition of circulating A(H5N1) genotypes. Most HPAI outbreaks reported in poultry were primary outbreaks following the introduction of the virus by wild birds. Outside Europe, the majority of outbreaks in poultry were still clustered in North America, while the spread of A(H5) to more naïve wild bird populations on mainland Antarctica is of particular concern. For mammals, A(H5N5) was reported for the first time in Europe, while goat kids in the United States of America represented the first natural A(H5N1) infection in ruminants. Since the last report and as of 12 March 2024, five human avian influenza A(H5N1) infections, including one death, three of which were clade 2.3.2.1c viruses, have been reported by Cambodia. China has reported two human infections, including one fatal case, with avian influenza A(H5N6), four human infections with avian influenza A(H9N2) and one fatal case with co-infection of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and avian influenza A(H10N5). The latter case was the first documented human infection with avian influenza A(H10N5). Human infections with avian influenza remain rare and no sustained human-to-human infection has been observed. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA. The risk of infection remains low to moderate for those occupationally or otherwise exposed to infected animals.

Avian influenza overview September-December 2023.

Between 2 September and 1 December 2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) outbreaks were reported in domestic (88) and wild (175) birds across 23 countries in Europe. Compared to previous years, the increase in the number of HPAI virus detections in waterfowl has been delayed, possibly due to a later start of the autumn migration of several wild bird species. Common cranes were the most frequently affected species during this reporting period with mortality events being described in several European countries. Most HPAI outbreaks reported in poultry were primary outbreaks following the introduction of the virus by wild birds, with the exception of Hungary, where two clusters involving secondary spread occurred. HPAI viruses identified in Europe belonged to eleven different genotypes, seven of which were new. With regard to mammals, the serological survey conducted in all fur farms in Finland revealed 29 additional serologically positive farms during this reporting period. Wild mammals continued to be affected mostly in the Americas, from where further spread into wild birds and mammals in the Antarctic region was described for the first time. Since the last report and as of 1 December 2023, three fatal and one severe human A(H5N1) infection with clade 2.3.2.1c viruses have been reported by Cambodia, and one A(H9N2) infection was reported from China. No human infections related to the avian influenza detections in animals in fur farms in Finland have been reported, and human infections with avian influenza remain a rare event. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA. The risk of infection remains low to moderate for occupationally or otherwise exposed people to infected birds or mammals (wild or domesticated); this assessment covers different situations that depend on the level of exposure.

Avian influenza overview June-September 2023.

Between 24 June and 1 September 2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) outbreaks were reported in domestic (25) and wild (482) birds across 21 countries in Europe. Most of these outbreaks appeared to be clustered along coastlines with only few HPAI virus detections inland. In poultry, all HPAI outbreaks were primary and sporadic with most of them occurring in the United Kingdom. In wild birds, colony-breeding seabirds continued to be most heavily affected, but an increasing number of HPAI virus detections in waterfowl is expected in the coming weeks. The current epidemic in wild birds has already surpassed the one of the previous epidemiological year in terms of total number of HPAI virus detections. As regards mammals, A(H5N1) virus was identified in 26 fur animal farms in Finland. Affected species included American mink, red and Arctic fox, and common raccoon dog. The most likely source of introduction was contact with gulls. Wild mammals continued to be affected worldwide, mostly red foxes and different seal species. Since the last report and as of 28 September 2023, two A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus detections in humans have been reported by the United Kingdom, and three human infections with A(H5N6) and two with A(H9N2) were reported from China, respectively. No human infection related to the avian influenza detections in animals on fur farms in Finland or in cats in Poland have been reported, and human infections with avian influenza remain a rare event. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA. The risk of infection remains low to moderate for occupationally or otherwise exposed people to infected birds or mammals (wild or domesticated); this assessment covers different situations that depend on the level of exposure.

Avian influenza overview April - June 2023.

Between 29 April and 23 June 2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus (clade 2.3.4.4b) outbreaks were reported in domestic (98) and wild (634) birds across 25 countries in Europe. A cluster of outbreaks in mulard ducks for foie gras production was concentrated in Southwest France, whereas the overall A(H5N1) situation in poultry in Europe and worldwide has eased. In wild birds, black-headed gulls and several new seabird species, mostly gulls and terns (e.g. sandwich terns), were heavily affected, with increased mortality being observed in both adults and juveniles after hatching. Compared to the same period last year, dead seabirds have been increasingly found inland and not only along European coastlines. As regards mammals, A(H5N1) virus was identified in 24 domestic cats and one caracal in Poland between 10 and 30 June 2023. Affected animals showed neurological and respiratory signs, sometimes mortality, and were widely scattered across nine voivodeships in the country. All cases are genetically closely related and identified viruses cluster with viruses detected in poultry (since October 2022, but now only sporadic) and wild birds (December 2022-January 2023) in the past. Uncertainties still exist around their possible source of infection, with no feline-to-feline or feline-to-human transmission reported so far. Since 10 May 2023 and as of 4 July 2023, two A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus detections in humans were reported from the United Kingdom, and two A(H9N2) and one A(H5N6) human infections in China. In addition, one person infected with A(H3N8) in China has died. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA, low to moderate for occupationally or otherwise exposed people to infected birds or mammals (wild or domesticated).

Avian influenza overview March - April 2023.

Between 2 March and 28 April 2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5Nx) virus, clade 2.3.4.4b, outbreaks were reported in domestic (106) and wild (610) birds across 24 countries in Europe. Poultry outbreaks occurred less frequently compared to the previous reporting period and compared to spring 2022. Most of these outbreaks were classified as primary outbreaks without secondary spread and some of them associated with atypical disease presentation, in particular low mortality. In wild birds, black-headed gulls continued to be heavily affected, while also other threatened wild bird species, such as the peregrine falcon, showed increased mortality. The ongoing epidemic in black-headed gulls, many of which breed inland, may increase the risk for poultry, especially in July-August, when first-year birds disperse from the breeding colonies. HPAI A(H5N1) virus also continued to expand in the Americas, including in mammalian species, and is expected to reach the Antarctic in the near future. HPAI virus infections were detected in six mammal species, particularly in marine mammals and mustelids, for the first time, while the viruses currently circulating in Europe retain a preferential binding for avian-like receptors. Since 13 March 2022 and as of 10 May 2023, two A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b virus detections in humans were reported from China (1), and Chile (1), as well as three A(H9N2) and one A(H3N8) human infections in China. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe remains low for the general population in the EU/EEA, and low to moderate for occupationally or otherwise exposed people.

Avian influenza overview December 2022 - March 2023.

Between 3 December 2022 and 1 March 2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus, clade 2.3.4.4b, was reported in Europe in domestic (522) and wild (1,138) birds over 24 countries. An unexpected number of HPAI virus detections in sea birds were observed, mainly in gull species and particularly in black-headed gulls (large mortality events were observed in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Italy). The close genetic relationship among viruses collected from black-headed gulls suggests a southward spread of the virus. Moreover, the genetic analyses indicate that the virus persisted in Europe in residential wild birds during and after the summer months. Although the virus retained a preferential binding for avian-like receptors, several mutations associated to increased zoonotic potential were detected. The risk of HPAI virus infection for poultry due to the virus circulating in black-headed gulls and other gull species might increase during the coming months, as breeding bird colonies move inland with possible overlap with poultry production areas. Worldwide, HPAI A(H5N1) virus continued to spread southward in the Americas, from Mexico to southern Chile. The Peruvian pelican was the most frequently reported infected species with thousands of deaths being reported. The reporting of HPAI A(H5N1) in mammals also continued probably linked to feeding on infected wild birds. In Peru, a mass mortality event of sea lions was observed in January and February 2023. Since October 2022, six A(H5N1) detections in humans were reported from Cambodia (a family cluster with 2 people, clade 2.3.2.1c), China (2, clade 2.3.4.4b), Ecuador (1, clade 2.3.4.4b), and Vietnam (1, unspecified clade), as well as two A(H5N6) human infections from China. The risk of infection with currently circulating avian H5 influenza viruses of clade 2.3.4.4b in Europe is assessed as low for the general population in the EU/EEA, and low to moderate for occupationally or otherwise exposed people.

Monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 infection in mustelids.

American mink and ferret are highly susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but no information is available for other mustelid species. SARS-CoV-2 spreads very efficiently within mink farms once introduced, by direct and indirect contact, high within-farm animal density increases the chance for transmission. Between-farm spread is likely to occur once SARS-CoV-2 is introduced, short distance between SARS-CoV-2 positive farms is a risk factor. As of 29 January 2021, SARS-CoV-2 virus has been reported in 400 mink farms in eight countries in the European Union. In most cases, the likely introduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection into farms was infected humans. Human health can be at risk by mink-related variant viruses, which can establish circulation in the community, but so far these have not shown to be more transmissible or causing more severe impact compared with other circulating SARS-CoV-2. Concerning animal health risk posed by SARS-CoV-2 infection the animal species that may be included in monitoring plans are American mink, ferrets, cats, raccoon dogs, white-tailed deer and Rhinolophidae bats. All mink farms should be considered at risk of infection; therefore, the monitoring objective should be early detection. This includes passive monitoring (in place in the whole territory of all countries where animals susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 are bred) but also active monitoring by regular testing. First, frequent testing of farm personnel and all people in contact with the animals is recommended. Furthermore randomly selected animals (dead or sick animals should be included) should be tested using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), ideally at weekly intervals (i.e. design prevalence approximately 5% in each epidemiological unit, to be assessed case by case). Suspected animals (dead or with clinical signs and a minimum five animals) should be tested for confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Positive samples from each farm should be sequenced to monitor virus evolution and results publicly shared.

Epidemiology of measles during the COVID-19 pandemic, a description of the surveillance data, 29 EU/EEA countries and the United Kingdom, January to May 2020.

The number of measles cases declined in European Union/European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom in 2020. Reported cases to The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control decreased from 710 to 54 between January and May. Epidemic intelligence screening observed a similar trend. Under-diagnoses and under-reporting during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic should be ruled out before concluding reduced measles circulation is because of social distancing and any community control measures taken to control COVID-19.

The burden of herpes zoster disease in Norway.

BACKGROUND: No national vaccination program against herpes zoster (HZ) is currently in place in Norway. We aimed to quantify the burden of medically attended HZ to assess the need for a vaccination program. METHODS: We linked data from several health registries to identify medically attended HZ cases during 2008-2014 and HZ-associated deaths during1996-2012 in the entire population of Norway. We calculated HZ incidences for primary and hospital care by age, sex, type of health encounter, vaccination status, and co-morbidities among hospital patients. We also estimated HZ-associated mortality and case-fatality. RESULTS: The study included 82,064 HZ patients, of whom none were reported as vaccinated against HZ. The crude annual incidence of HZ was 227.1 cases per 100,000 in primary healthcare and 24.8 cases per 100,000 in hospitals. Incidence rates were higher in adults aged ≥50 years (461 per 100,000 in primary care and 57 per 100,000 in hospitals), and women than in men both in primary healthcare (267 vs 188 per 100,000), and hospitals (28 vs 22 per 100,000). Among hospital patients, 47% had complicated zoster and 25% had comorbidities, according to the Charlson comorbidity index. The duration of hospital stay (median 4 days) increased with the severity of comorbidities. The estimated mortality rate was 0.18 per 100,000; and in-hospital case-fatality rate was 1.04%. CONCLUSIONS: Medically attended HZ poses a substantial burden in the Norwegian healthcare sector. The majority of the zoster cases occurred among adults aged ≥50 years - the group eligible for zoster vaccination - and increased use of zoster vaccination may be warranted, especially among persons with co-morbidities.

Immunity to varicella zoster virus among pregnant women in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION: Infection with varicella zoster virus (VZV) in pregnancy may lead to serious outcomes both for the mother and the newborn. Targeted screening and vaccination of non-immune women during reproductive age could prevent varicella infection in pregnancy. Currently, no universal varicella screening of pregnant women is implemented in Norway, but serological testing in pregnancy is recommended in particular situations. We examined seroprevalence of VZV in a national pregnancy cohort in order to help assess a need for VZV screening of women during reproductive age. METHODS: We determined the susceptibility to VZV and the reliability of self-reported history of VZV infection in the Norwegian obstetric population by using a random sample of 1,184 pregnant women from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort study (MoBa). The MoBa study included approximately 95,200 pregnant women in Norway between 1998 and 2009. Blood samples taken at gestational week 17-18 were analysed using a commercial enzyme immunoassay for specific IgG antibodies to Varicella-Zoster virus. Second sample taken at birth was tested if the first sample result was negative or equivocal. RESULTS: Of the 1,184 pregnant women, 98.6% (n = 1,167) were seropositive, 0.83% (n = 10) remained seronegative, and four women (0.34%) seroconverted during their pregnancy. No significant associations were found between serological status and women's age at birth, gestational age, women's country of birth and year of child's birth. One woman reported prior history of varicella, whereas 143 (12.1%) women reported a household exposure to childhood diseases with fever and rash, of which 25 reported exposure to varicella, of which all were seropositive. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support antenatal screening recommendations in Norway advising testing for VZV in pregnant women with unknown immunity to VZV. Further studies are however needed to better identify target groups for screening and vaccination.

Health crisis in Venezuela: Status of communicable diseases and implications for the European Union and European Economic Area, May 2019.

Re-emerging diseases outbreaks are being reported in Venezuela since 2012/13, following ongoing political and economic crisis. Healthcare system collapse has led to an increasing incidence and mortality from communicable diseases. Increasing movement of people between Venezuela and the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) creates a need for increased awareness of the infectious disease risks and requirements for appropriate investigation and treatment of individuals arriving from Venezuela; overall risk for EU/EEA citizens is low.

Modeling the impact of combined vaccination programs against varicella and herpes zoster in Norway.

BACKGROUND: Adoption of varicella immunization in Europe is limited due to a predicted increase in the incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) resulting from a removal of exogenous boosting by varicella vaccination. Most available assessments of immunization strategies only considered universal varicella vaccination (alone or in combination with HZ by the live vaccine). The development of a new subunit recombinant zoster vaccine may provide new perspectives of HZ control. METHODS: We used a mathematical model for VZV in Norway based on the progressive immunity formulation of exogenous boosting. We evaluated a complete range of alternative immunization options against varicella and HZ including both universal and targeted varicella vaccination, either alone or with zoster immunization, and zoster immunization alone. We considered all values of the boosting intensity consistent with the Norwegian HZ incidence and compared the performance of the currently available live vaccine vs. a new recombinant vaccine. RESULTS: Universal varicella vaccination alone resulted in a marked increase in the incidence of HZ under all scenarios considered. Even under the most favorable hypotheses on the magnitude of the boosting intensity, this increase could be mitigated only by a parallel HZ immunization with a recombinant vaccine, assuming a long duration of protection. Targeted varicella immunization of adolescents resulted in a modest increase in the HZ incidence which could be counterbalanced by both the live and, especially, the recombinant vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Given current knowledge on HZ pathogenesis and exogenous boosting, targeted varicella vaccination of adolescents was the only strategy that was not predicted to impact the epidemiology of HZ, and therefore it may represent a suitable alternative to universal vaccination. These results are aimed to support vaccine policy decisions in Norway and other countries with a similar VZV epidemiology.

Varicella-related Primary Health-care Visits, Hospitalizations and Mortality in Norway, 2008-2014.

BACKGROUND: Norway does not currently implement universal varicella vaccination in childhood. We aimed to characterize health care burden of varicella in Norway in the prevaccine era. METHODS: We linked individual patient data from different national registries to examine varicella vaccinations and varicella-coded primary care consultations, hospitalizations, outpatient hospital visits, deaths and viral infections of central nervous system in the whole population of Norway during 2008-2014. We estimated health care contact rates and described the epidemiology of medically attended varicella infection. RESULTS: Each year approximately 14,600 varicella-related contacts occurred within primary health care and hospital sector in Norway. The annual contact rate was 221 cases per 100,000 population in primary health care and 7.3 cases per 100,000 in hospital care. Both in primary and hospital care, the highest incidences were observed among children 1 year of age: 2,654 and 78.1 cases per 100,000, respectively. The annual varicella mortality was estimated at 0.06 deaths per 100,000 and in-hospital case-fatality rate at 0.3%. Very few (0.2-0.5%) patients were vaccinated against varicella. Among hospitalized varicella patients, 22% had predisposing conditions, 9% had severe-to-very severe comorbidities and 5.5% were immunocompromised. Varicella-related complications were reported in 29.3% of hospitalized patients. Varicella zoster virus was the third most frequent virus found among 16% of patients with confirmed viral infections of central nervous system. CONCLUSIONS: Varicella causes a considerable health care burden in Norway, especially among children. To inform the policy decision on the use of varicella vaccination, a health economic assessment of vaccination and mathematical modeling of vaccination impact are needed.

The natural history of varicella zoster virus infection in Norway: Further insights on exogenous boosting and progressive immunity to herpes zoster.

We use age-structured models for VZV transmission and reactivation to reconstruct the natural history of VZV in Norway based on available pre-vaccination serological data, contact matrices, and herpes zoster incidence data. Depending on the hypotheses on contact and transmission patterns, the basic reproduction number of varicella in Norway ranges between 3.7 and 5.0, implying a vaccine coverage between 73 and 80% to effectively interrupt transmission with a 100% vaccine efficacy against infection. The varicella force of infection peaks during early childhood (3-5 yrs) and shows a prolonged phase of higher risk during the childbearing period, though quantitative variations can occur depending on contact patterns. By expressing the magnitude of exogenous boosting as a proportion of the force of infection, it is shown that reactivation is well described by a progressive immunity mechanism sustained by a large, though possibly below 100%, degree of exogenous boosting, in agreement with findings from other Nordic countries, implying large reproduction numbers of boosting. Moreover, magnitudes of exogenous boosting below 40% are robustly disconfirmed by data. These results bring further insight on the magnitude of immunity boosting and its relationship with reactivation.

Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization.

BACKGROUND: Varicella is generally considered a mild disease. Disease burden is not well known and country-level estimation is challenging. As varicella disease is not notifiable, notification criteria and rates vary between countries. In general, existing surveillance systems do not capture cases that do not seek medical care, and most are affected by underreporting and underascertainment. We aimed to estimate the overall varicella disease burden in Europe to provide critical information to support decision-making regarding varicella vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review to identify all available epidemiological data on varicella IgG antibody seroprevalence, primary care and hospitalisation incidence, and mortality. We then developed methods to estimate age-specific varicella incidence and annual number of cases by different levels of severity (cases in the community, health care seekers in primary care and hospitals, and deaths) for all countries belonging to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) region and Switzerland. RESULTS: In the absence of universal varicella immunization, the burden of varicella would be substantial with a total of 5.5 million (95% CI: 4.7-6.4) varicella cases occurring annually across Europe. Variation exists between countries but overall the majority of cases (3 million; 95% CI: 2.7-3.3) would occur in children <5 years. Annually, 3-3.9 million patients would consult a primary care physician, 18,200-23,500 patients would be hospitalised, and 80 varicella-related deaths would occur (95% CI: 19-822). CONCLUSIONS: Varicella disease burden is substantial. Most cases occur in children <5 years old but adults require hospitalisation more often and are at higher risk of death. This information should be considered when planning and evaluating varicella control strategies. A better understanding of the driving factors of country-specific differences in varicella transmission and health care utilization is needed. Improving and standardizing varicella surveillance in Europe, as initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), is important to improve data quality to facilitate inter-country comparison.