Spatially interactive modeling of land change identifies location-specific adaptations most likely to lower future flood risk.

Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%-24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%-0.2% annual probability). We simulated various "what-if" scenarios and found managed retreat to be the only intervention with predicted exposure below baseline conditions. In the business-as-usual scenario, existing and future development must be either protected or abandoned to cope with future flooding. Our open framework can be applied to different regions and advances local to regional-scale efforts to evaluate potential risks and tradeoffs.

Tell Me Where to Go: An Experiment in Spreading Visitor Flows in The Netherlands.

Cities attracting large numbers of tourists increasingly face crowding and public resistance to tourism growth. As a result, governments strive to spread tourists from the best-known attractions to less-visited locations to improve both residents' and tourists' quality of life. Evidence of success and best practices herein is largely anecdotal, and the effects on tourist experience are also unknown. Thus, we undertook a randomized 2 × 2 experiment in the province of Overijssel (The Netherlands), wherein tourists staying at vacation parks near small and mid-sized cities were exposed to information which emphasized attractions in either heavily visited or less-visited areas. Participants were also assigned to receive the information in either a passive or a conversational form. Location and daily emotion, as well as experience evaluation on the last day of the vacation, were recorded via mobile platforms. We found that tourists receiving information on attractions in less-visited areas engaged in significantly more movements around these attractions, and significantly less around heavily visited areas. The conversational form of information delivery was more positively evaluated than information delivered passively. Furthermore, vacation experience emotions and evaluations were largely unaffected. Thus, it is clearly possible to direct tourists to less-crowded locations without negatively affecting their vacation experiences.

Point Density Variations in Airborne Lidar Point Clouds.

In spite of increasing point density and accuracy, airborne lidar point clouds often exhibit point density variations. Some of these density variations indicate issues with point clouds, potentially leading to errors in derived products. To highlight these issues, we provide an overview of point density variations and show examples in six airborne lidar point cloud datasets that we used in our topographic and geospatial modeling research. Using the published literature, we identified sources of point density variations and issues indicated or caused by these variations. Lastly, we discuss the reduction in point density variations using decimations, homogenizations, and their applicability.

Timing and Trends for Municipal Wastewater, Lab-Confirmed Case, and Syndromic Case Surveillance of COVID-19 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Objectives. To compare 4 COVID-19 surveillance metrics in a major metropolitan area. Methods. We analyzed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in wastewater influent and primary solids in Raleigh, North Carolina, from April 10 through December 13, 2020. We compared wastewater results with lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases and syndromic COVID-like illness (CLI) cases to answer 3 questions: (1) Did they correlate? (2) What was the temporal alignment of the different surveillance systems? (3) Did periods of significant change (i.e., trends) align? Results. In the Raleigh sewershed, wastewater influent, wastewater primary solids, lab-confirmed cases, and CLI were strongly or moderately correlated. Trends in lab-confirmed cases and wastewater influent were observed earlier, followed by CLI and, lastly, wastewater primary solids. All 4 metrics showed sustained increases in COVID-19 in June, July, and November 2020 and sustained decreases in August and September 2020. Conclusions. In a major metropolitan area in 2020, the timing of and trends in municipal wastewater, lab-confirmed case, and syndromic case surveillance of COVID-19 were in general agreement. Public Health Implications. Our results provide evidence for investment in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater and CLI surveillance to complement information provided through lab-confirmed cases. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):79-88. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307108).

Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions.

Ecological forecasts will be best suited to inform intervention strategies if they are accessible to a diversity of decision-makers. Researchers are developing intuitive forecasting interfaces to guide stakeholders through the development of intervention strategies and visualization of results. Yet, few studies to date have evaluated how user interface design facilitates the coordinated, cross-boundary management required for controlling biological invasions. We used a participatory approach to develop complementary tangible and online interfaces for collaboratively forecasting biological invasions and devising control strategies. A diverse group of stakeholders evaluated both systems in the real-world context of controlling sudden oak death, an emerging forest disease killing millions of trees in California and Oregon. Our findings suggest that while both interfaces encouraged adaptive experimentation, tangible interfaces are particularly well suited to support collaborative decision-making. Reflecting on the strengths of both systems, we suggest workbench-style interfaces that support simultaneous interactions and dynamic geospatial visualizations.

TanGeoMS: tangible geospatial modeling system.

We present TanGeoMS, a tangible geospatial modeling visualization system that couples a laser scanner, projector, and a flexible physical three-dimensional model with a standard geospatial information system (GIS) to create a tangible user interface for terrain data. TanGeoMS projects an image of real-world data onto a physical terrain model. Users can alter the topography of the model by modifying the clay surface or placing additional objects on the surface. The modified model is captured by an overhead laser scanner then imported into a GIS for analysis and simulation of real-world processes. The results are projected back onto the surface of the model providing feedback on the impact of the modifications on terrain parameters and simulated processes. Interaction with a physical model is highly intuitive, allowing users to base initial design decisions on geospatial data, test the impact of these decisions in GIS simulations, and use the feedback to improve their design. We demonstrate the system on three applications: investigating runoff management within a watershed, assessing the impact of storm surge on barrier islands, and exploring landscape rehabilitation in military training areas.