Analysis of Escherichia coli O157 strains in cattle and humans between Scotland and England & Wales: implications for human health.

For the last two decades, the human infection frequency of Escherichia coli O157 (O157) in Scotland has been 2.5-fold higher than in England and Wales. Results from national cattle surveys conducted in Scotland and England and Wales in 2014/2015 were combined with data on reported human clinical cases from the same time frame to determine if strain differences in national populations of O157 in cattle could be associated with higher human infection rates in Scotland. Shiga toxin subtype (Stx) and phage type (PT) were examined within and between host (cattle vs human) and nation (Scotland vs England and Wales). For a subset of the strains, whole genome sequencing (WGS) provided further insights into geographical and host association. All three major O157 lineages (I, II, I/II) and most sub-lineages (Ia, Ib, Ic, IIa, IIb, IIc) were represented in cattle and humans in both nations. While the relative contribution of different reservoir hosts to human infection is unknown, WGS analysis indicated that the majority of O157 diversity in human cases was captured by isolates from cattle. Despite comparable cattle O157 prevalence between nations, strain types were localized. PT21/28 (sub-lineage Ic, Stx2a+) was significantly more prevalent in Scottish cattle [odds ratio (OR) 8.7 (2.3-33.7; P<0.001] and humans [OR 2.2 (1.5-3.2); P<0.001]. In England and Wales, cattle had a significantly higher association with sub-lineage IIa strains [PT54, Stx2c; OR 5.6 (1.27-33.3); P=0.011] while humans were significantly more closely associated with sub-lineage IIb [PT8, Stx1 and Stx2c; OR 29 (4.9-1161); P<0.001]. Therefore, cattle farms in Scotland were more likely to harbour Stx2a+O157 strains compared to farms in E and W (P<0.001). There was evidence of limited cattle strain migration between nations and clinical isolates from one nation were more similar to cattle isolates from the same nation, with sub-lineage Ic (mainly PT21/28) exhibiting clear national association and evidence of local transmission in Scotland. While we propose the higher rate of O157 clinical cases in Scotland, compared to England and Wales, is a consequence of the nationally higher level of Stx2a+O157 strains in Scottish cattle, we discuss the multiple additional factors that may also contribute to the different infection rates between these nations.

A large-scale genomic snapshot of Klebsiella spp. isolates in Northern Italy reveals limited transmission between clinical and non-clinical settings.

The Klebsiella group, found in humans, livestock, plants, soil, water and wild animals, is genetically and ecologically diverse. Many species are opportunistic pathogens and can harbour diverse classes of antimicrobial resistance genes. Healthcare-associated Klebsiella pneumoniae clones that are non-susceptible to carbapenems can spread rapidly, representing a high public health burden. Here we report an analysis of 3,482 genome sequences representing 15 Klebsiella species sampled over a 17-month period from a wide range of clinical, community, animal and environmental settings in and around the Italian city of Pavia. Northern Italy is a hotspot for hospital-acquired carbapenem non-susceptible Klebsiella and thus a pertinent setting to examine the overlap between isolates in clinical and non-clinical settings. We found no genotypic or phenotypic evidence for non-susceptibility to carbapenems outside the clinical environment. Although we noted occasional transmission between clinical and non-clinical settings, our data point to a limited role of animal and environmental reservoirs in the human acquisition of Klebsiella spp. We also provide a detailed genus-wide view of genomic diversity and population structure, including the identification of new groups.

FAIR data pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows.

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of 'following the science' are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline. Although developed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it allows easy annotation of any data as they are consumed by analyses, or conversely traces the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical or modelling source code to primary data. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess scientific evidence by inspecting its provenance, while allowing scientists to support policymakers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that such tools should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

The pitfalls and virtues of population genetic summary statistics: Detecting selective sweeps in recent divergences.

During evolution, genomes are shaped by a plethora of forces that can leave characteristic signatures. A common goal when studying diverging populations is to detect the signatures of selective sweeps, which can be rather difficult in complex demographic scenarios, such as under secondary contact. Moreover, the detection of selective sweeps, especially in whole-genome data, often relies heavily on a narrow set of summary statistics that are affected by a multitude of factors, frequently leading to false positives and false negatives. Simulating genomic regions makes it possible to control these demographic and population genetic factors. We used simulations of large genomic regions to determine how different secondary contact and sympatric speciation scenarios affect the footprint of hard and soft selective sweeps in the presence of varying degrees of gene flow and recombination. We explored the ability of an array of population genetic summary statistics to detect the footprints of these selective sweeps under specific demographies. We focussed on metrics that do not require phased data or ancestral sequences and therefore have wide applicability. We found that a newly developed beta diversity measure, B¯GD utperformed all other metrics in detecting selective sweeps and that FST also performed well. High accuracy was also found in Δπ and genotype distance-derived metrics. The performance of most metrics strongly depended on factors such as the presence of an allopatric phase, migration rates, recombination, population growth, and whether the sweep was hard or soft. We provide suggestions for locating and analysing the response to selective sweeps in whole-genome data.

1980s-2010s: The world's largest mangrove ecosystem is becoming homogeneous.

Knowledge gaps in spatiotemporal changes in mangrove diversity and composition have obstructed mangrove conservation programs across the tropics, but particularly in the Sundarbans (10,017 km2), the world's largest remaining natural mangrove ecosystem. Using mangrove tree data collected from Earth's largest permanent sample plot network at four historical time points (1986, 1994, 1999 and 2014), this study establishes spatially explicit baseline biodiversity information for the Sundarbans. We determined the spatial and temporal differences in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity in three ecological zones (hypo-, meso-, and hypersaline) and also uncovered changes in the mangroves' overall geographic range and abundances therein. Spatially, the hyposaline mangrove communities were the most diverse and heterogeneous in species composition while the hypersaline communities were the least diverse and most homogeneous at all historical time points. Since 1986, we detect an increasing trend of compositional homogeneity (between-site similarity in species composition) and a significant spatial contraction of distinct and diverse areas over the entire ecosystem. Temporally, the western and southern hypersaline communities have undergone radical shifts in species composition due to population increase and range expansion of the native invasive species Ceriops decandra and local extinction or range contraction of specialists including the globally endangered Heritiera fomes. The surviving biodiversity hotspots are distributed outside the legislated protected area network. In addition to suggesting the immediate coverage of these hotspots under protected area management, our novel biodiversity insights and spatial maps can form the basis for spatial conservation planning, biodiversity monitoring and protection initiatives for the Sundarbans.

The metric matters when assessing diversity: Assessing lepidopteran species richness and diversity in two habitats under different disturbance regimes.

How we measure diversity can have important implications for understanding the impacts of anthropogenic pressure on ecosystem processes and functioning. Functional diversity quantifies the range and relative abundance of functional traits within a given community and, as such, may provide a more mechanistic understanding of ecosystems. Here, we use a novel approach to examine how lepidopteran richness and diversity, weighted by species abundance, differ between habitats under different disturbance regimes (highly disturbed non-native plantations and less disturbed broadleaf woodlands), both with and without constraining by similarity due to shared taxonomy or functional traits. Comparisons of diversity between the two habitats differed according to which metric was being used; while species richness was 58% greater in broadleaf woodlands, after accounting for species similarity due to shared functional traits, there was little difference between woodland types under two different disturbance regimes. Functional diversity varied within the landscape but was similar in paired broadleaf and plantation sites, suggesting that landscape rather than local factors drive biotic homogenization in plantation dominated landscapes. The higher richness in broadleaf sites appears to be driven by rare species, which share functional traits with more common species. Moth populations in disturbed, plantation sites represent a reduced subset of moth species compared to broadleaf sites, and may be more vulnerable to disturbance pressures such as clear-felling operations due to low community resilience.