Assessment of in silico models for acute aquatic toxicity towards fish under REACH regulation.

We evaluated the performance of eight QSAR in silico modelling packages (ACD/ToxSuite™, ADMET Predictor™, DEMETRA, ECOSAR, TerraQSAR™, Toxicity Estimation Software Tool, TOPKAT™ and VEGA) for acute aquatic toxicity towards two species of fish: Fathead Minnow and Rainbow Trout. For the Fathead Minnow, we compared model predictions for 567 substances with the corresponding experimental values for 96-h median lethal concentrations (LC50). Some models gave good results, with r2 up to 0.85. We also classified the predictions of all the models into four toxicity classes defined by CLP. This permitted us to assess other parameters, such as the percentage of correct predictions for each class. Then we used a set of 351 substances with toxicity data towards Rainbow Trout (96-h LC50). In this case the predictability was unacceptable for all the in silico models. The calculated r2 gave poor correlations (≤0.53). Another analysis was performed according to chemical classes and for mode of action. In the first case, all the classes show a high percentage of correct predictions, in the second case only narcotics and polar narcotics were predicted with good confidence. The results indicate the possibility of using in silico methods to estimate aquatic toxicity within REACH regulation, after careful evaluation.

Comparison of in silico models for prediction of Daphnia magna acute toxicity.

Eight in silico modelling packages were evaluated and compared for the prediction of Daphnia magna acute toxicity from the viewpoint of the European legislation on chemicals, REACH. We tested the following models: Discovery Studio (DS) TOPKAT, ACD/Tox Suite, ADMET Predictor, ECOSAR (Ecological Structure Activity Relationships), TerraQSAR, T.E.S.T. (Toxicity Estimation Software Tool) and two models implemented in VEGA on 480 industrial compounds for 48-h median lethal concentrations (LC50) to D. magna, matching them with experimental values. The quality of the estimates was compared using a standard statistical review and an additional classification approach in which the hazard predictions were grouped using well-defined regulatory criteria. The regression parameters, correlation coefficient being the most influential, showed that four models (ADMET Predictor, DS TOPKAT, TerraQSAR and VEGA DEMETRA) had similar reliability. These performed better than the others, but the coefficient of determination was still low (r2 around 0.6), considering that at least half the predicted compounds were inside the training sets. Additionally, we grouped the results in four defined toxicity classes. TerraQSAR™ gave 60% of correct classifications, followed by DS TOPKAT, ADMET Predictor™ and VEGA DEMETRA, with 56%, 54% and 48%, respectively. These results highlight the challenges associated with developing reliable and easily applied acceptability criteria for the regulatory use of QSAR models to D. magna acute toxicity.